Risk-based lung cancer screening in heavy smokers: a benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Annual screening through low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is recommended for heavy smokers. However, it is questionable whether all individuals require annual screening given the potential harms of LDCT screening. This study examines the benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness of risk-based screening in heavy smokers and determines the optimal risk threshold for screening and risk-stratified screening intervals. METHODS: We conducted a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis in China, using a cohort-based Markov model which simulated a lung cancer screening cohort of 19,146 heavy smokers aged 50 ~ 74 years old, who had a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years and were either current smokers or had quit for < 15 years. A total of 34 risk-based screening strategies, varying by different risk groups for screening eligibility and screening intervals (1-year, 2-year, 3-year, one-off, non-screening), were evaluated and were compared with annual screening for all heavy smokers (the status quo strategy). The analysis was undertaken from the health service perspective with a 30-year time horizon. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was adopted as three times the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2021 (CNY 242,928) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: Compared with the status quo strategy, nine risk-based screening strategies were found to be cost-effective, with two of them even resulting in cost-saving. The most cost-effective strategy was the risk-based approach of annual screening for individuals with a 5-year risk threshold of ≥ 1.70%, biennial screening for individuals with a 5-year risk threshold of 1.03 ~ 1.69%, and triennial screening for individuals with a 5-year risk threshold of < 1.03%. This strategy had the highest incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) of CNY 1032. All risk-based screening strategies were more efficient than the status quo strategy, requiring 129 ~ 656 fewer screenings per lung cancer death avoided, and 0.5 ~ 28 fewer screenings per life-year gained. The cost-effectiveness of risk-based screening was further improved when individual adherence to screening improved and individuals quit smoking after being screened. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-based screening strategies are more efficient in reducing lung cancer deaths and gaining life years compared to the status quo strategy. Risk-stratified screening intervals can potentially balance long-term benefit-harm trade-offs and improve the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screenings.

Special issue "The advance of solid tumor research in China": Participants with a family history of cancer have a higher participation rate in low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer screening.

We aimed to determine participation in low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of individuals with a family history of common cancers in a population-based screening program to provide timely evidence in high-risk populations in China. The analysis was conducted using data from the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC), which recruited 282 377 participants aged 40 to 74 years from eight cities in the Henan province. Using the CanSPUC risk score system, 55 428 participants were evaluated to have high risk for lung cancer and were recommended for LDCT. We calculated the overall and group-specific participation rates using family history of common cancers and compared differences in participation rates between different groups. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were derived by multivariable logistic regression. Of the 55 428 participants, 22 260 underwent LDCT (participation rate, 40.16%). Family history of lung, esophageal, stomach, liver and colorectal cancer was associated with increased participation in LDCT screening. The odds of participants with a family history of one, two, three and four or more cancer cases undergoing LDCT screening were 1.9, 2.7, 2.8 and 3.5 times, respectively, than those without a family history of cancer. Compared to those without a history of cancer, participation in LDCT gradually increased as the number of cancer cases in the family increased (P < .001). Our findings suggest that there is room for improvement in lung cancer screening given the relatively low participation rate. Lung cancer screening in populations with a family history of cancer may improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness; however, this requires further verification.

Impact of pretreatment low-abundance HIV-1 drug resistance on virological failure after 1 year of antiretroviral therapy in China.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of pretreatment low-abundance HIV drug-resistant variants (LA-DRVs) on virological outcomes among ART-naive HIV-1-infected Chinese people who initiated ART. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted among HIV-1-infected individuals who had pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) genotypic results. Cases were defined as individuals with virological failure (HIV-1 RNA viral load ≥1000 copies/mL) after 1 year of ART, and controls were individuals from the same cohort whose viral load was less than 1000 copies/mL. Next-generation sequencing was used to identify low-abundance PDR mutations at detection thresholds of 10%, 2% and 1%. The mutant load was calculated by multiplying the abundance of HIV-1 drug-resistant variants by the pretreatment viral load. The impact of pretreatment low-abundance mutations on virological failure was estimated in logistic regression models. RESULTS: Participants (43 cases and 100 controls) were included in this study for the analysis. The proportion of participants with PDR was higher in cases than in controls at different detection thresholds (44.2% versus 22.0%, P = 0.007 at 10% threshold; 58.1% versus 31.0%, P = 0.002 at 2% threshold; 90.7% versus 69.0%, P = 0.006 at 1% threshold). Compared with participants without PDR, participants with ≥10% detectable PDR mutations were associated with an increased risk of virological failure (adjusted OR 8.0, 95% CI 2.4-26.3, P = 0.001). Besides this, individuals with pretreatment LA-DRVs (2%-9% abundance range) had 5-fold higher odds of virological failure (adjusted OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.3-19.6, P = 0.021). Furthermore, LA-DRVs at 2%-9% abundance resistant to NRTIs and mutants with abundance of ≥10% resistant to NNRTIs had a 4-fold and 8-fold risk of experiencing virological failure, respectively. It was also found that a mutant load of more than 1000 copies/mL was predictive of virological failure (adjusted OR 7.2, 95% CI 2.5-21.1, P = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Low-abundance PDR mutations ranging from 2% to 9% of abundance can increase the risk of virological failure. Further studies are warranted to define a clinically relevant threshold of LA-DRVs and the role of NRTI LA-DRVs.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Nomogram in Nonsmoking Chinese Women: Retrospective Cross-sectional Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is believed that smoking is not the cause of approximately 53% of lung cancers diagnosed in women globally. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to develop and validate a simple and noninvasive model that could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in nonsmoking Chinese women. METHODS: Based on the population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, this retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study was carried out with a vast population base and an immense number of participants. The training set and the validation set were both constructed using a random distribution of the data. Following the identification of associated risk factors by multivariable Cox regression analysis, a predictive nomogram was developed. Discrimination (area under the curve) and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, which was then validated in the validation set. RESULTS: In sum, 151,834 individuals signed up to take part in the survey. Both the training set (n=75,917) and the validation set (n=75,917) were comprised of randomly selected participants. Potential predictors for lung cancer included age, history of chronic respiratory disease, first-degree family history of lung cancer, menopause, and history of benign breast disease. We displayed 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk-predicting nomograms using these 5 factors. In the training set, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk areas under the curve were 0.762, 0.718, and 0.703, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: We designed and validated a simple and noninvasive lung cancer risk model for nonsmoking women. This model can be applied to identify and triage people at high risk for developing lung cancers among nonsmoking women.

Hepatitis C Knowledge and Self-Reported Testing Behavior in the General Population in China: Online Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has proposed a worldwide target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. A better understanding of HCV, testing behaviors, and associated factors in the general population is essential. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess HCV knowledge, self-reported HCV testing behavior, and willingness to undergo HCV screening in the general Chinese population. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey of the general Chinese population aged ≥15 years was conducted from November 2021 to May 2023. Participant characteristics were assessed based on their knowledge level and uptake of HCV testing. Participants ever having heard of HCV were recognized as being aware of HCV and asked additional HCV knowledge questions using a brief, validated 9-item scale. Participants with 0-3 points and who were unaware of HCV were categorized as having poor knowledge, and those with 4-6 points and 7 points were categorized as having fair and good knowledge, respectively. Participant uptake of HCV testing, testing results, reasons for undergoing or not undergoing HCV testing, and willingness to undergo HCV screening were collected through self-reports. Ordinal and binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess factors associated with the HCV knowledge level and the uptake of HCV testing, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 1491 valid participants' questionnaires were included. Of these, 714 (47.6%) participants were aware of HCV. The proportion of participants with poor, fair, and good HCV knowledge was 63.4% (945/1491), 9.3% (139/1491), and 27.3% (407/1491), respectively. A total of 465 (31.2%) participants reported ever undergoing HCV testing, and 4 (0.9%) were anti-HCV antibody positive. Most participants were tested for HCV following blood donation (353/465, 75.9%). The most common reasons for not undergoing HCV screening were a lack of HCV awareness (665/1026, 64.8%), followed by a low self-perceived risk of infection (176/1026, 17.2%). Of 1026 participants who had never undergone HCV testing, 937 (91.3%) were willing to undergo HCV screening if universal screening was provided at no cost. The HCV knowledge level was positively associated with the HCV testing rate. Participants who were less educated, lived in rural areas, resided in West China, and were currently alcohol drinkers had lower HCV knowledge and reduced odds of having undergone HCV testing. In contrast, participants with a blood donation history and a family history of hepatitis B virus or HCV infection had higher HCV knowledge and increased odds of prior testing. Participants aged ≥60 years had lower knowledge, and women had reduced odds of having undergone previous HCV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The general population of China has low HCV knowledge and testing rate. There is an urgent need for enhanced HCV awareness and scaled-up HCV screening and treatment. Individuals who are less well educated, reside in less-developed areas, currently drink alcohol, and are female should be prioritized for health education and interventions.

Effect of Health Intervention via Web-Based Education on Improving Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Related to HPV Vaccination Among Chinese Female College Students.

Objectives: The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rate is generally low in China. This study aimed to assess the effect of web-based education on improving information-motivation-behavior skills related to HPV vaccination among Chinese female college students. Methods: From February to May 2020, female students were recruited from a university and divided into intervention and control groups. The intervention group received 7 days of HPV-related web-based education. Related information were collected using questionnaires in the baseline, 7 days, 1 month, and 3 months after the intervention. Chi-square test and repeated ANOVA were used to compare the differences between the two groups in the four surveys. Results: A total of 449 students (235 in the intervention and 214 in the control group) were included in the analysis. There were no statistical differences in demographic information between the two groups. Compared with the control group, students in the intervention group showed a richer knowledge and subjective norms of HPV vaccination (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The study provides preliminary support for a health intervention via web-based education in increasing HPV vaccination information among female college students.

Impact of HIV Pretreatment Drug Resistance on Virological Failure After One-Year Antiretroviral Therapy - China, 2018-2019.

What is already known about this topic?: While antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been rapidly scaled-up among the population living with human immunodeficiency virus or acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients since 2016, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) has also increased. What is added by this report?: PDR has an impact on ART outcomes. After one year of ART, the risk of virological failure in individuals with PDR was found to be 2.3 times higher than that of individuals without PDR. Moreover, patients with PDR to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) had an even higher risk of virological failure, with an odds ratio of 2.8 as compared with those without PDR. What are the implications for public health practice?: PDR is associated with an increased risk of virological failure. It is recommended to regularly implement PDR monitoring in order to provide information to optimize ART regimens and to prevent HIV drug resistance.

Factors influencing Chinese female college students' willingness to receive human papillomavirus vaccine: A cross-sectional study based on information-motivation-behavioral skills model.

China bears heavy disease burden of cervical cancer, but the willingness to receive human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is low. This study aimed to assess the factors affecting the willingness of Chinese female college students to receive HPV vaccine based on the information-motivation-behavior skills (IMB) model. A cross­sectional study was carried out in Henan University of Engineering in February 2020. Demographic characteristics and IMB model variables were collected using an anonymous questionnaire. A structural equation model was constructed to assess influencing factors of HPV vaccination willingness in the IMB model variables using AMOS 24.0. A total of 449 participants completed the survey. Among them, 23.4% were willing to get the HPV vaccine in the next 6 months. The average scores of knowledge, motivation, and behavioral skills were 1.72 ± 1.07, 11.69 ± 1.71, and 10.14 ± 1.86, respectively. The final revised model indicated a good fit to the data (χ2/df = 1.684, goodness of fit index = 0.984, adjusted goodness of fit index = 0.959, root mean square error of approximation = 0.044). The results of the model showed that the behavioral skills (ß = 0.318, P < .001) were positively related to the willingness of HPV vaccination uptake among female students. Moreover, motivation (ß = 0.475, P < .001) positively affected students' behavioral skills toward HPV vaccination, which further influenced their willingness of HPV vaccination uptake. HPV-preventive interventions for female students should focus on enhancing motivation and strengthening behavioral skills to increase the willingness to receive HPV vaccine and reduce HPV infection.

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer in 2018 and the temporal trends from 2010 to 2018 in Henan province, China: a population-based registry study.

Background: The disease burden of lung cancer is high in Henan province, China, it is out of the utmost significance to figure the current epidemic status and temporal trend of lung cancer for effective prevention and control. Methods: The qualified data was obtained from the Henan Provincial Central Cancer Registry of China, covering 30.51% of the whole population. Incidence, mortality, proportions, and cumulative rates (among patients aged 0-74 years old) of lung cancer by areas, sex and age groups were estimated. The world Segi's standard population was applied to calculate the age-standardized rate. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to evaluate temporal trends from 2010 to 2018. Results: In 2018, there were about 55,344 new cases of lung cancer in Henan province, with the crude incidence of 50.75/100,000, the age-standardized incidence rate by world standard (Segi's) population (ASIRW) of 37.14/100,000, and the cumulative rate of 4.57%. About 41,782 people died from lung cancer in 2018, with the crude mortality rate of 38.31/100,000, the age-standardized mortality rate by world standard (Segi's) population (ASMRW) of 27.09/100,000, and the cumulative rate of 3.22%. The age-specific incidence and mortality of lung cancer increased gradually as age increased and reached the peak at the age of 85+ years. The overall ASIRW (AAPC =0.3, P=0.531) and ASMRW (AAPC =-0.2, P=0.687) remained stable from 2010 to 2018, but decreased in urban areas from 2014 to 2018 (APC for ASIRW =-4.7, P=0.023; APC for ASMRW =-5.3, P=0.012). From 2010 to 2018, the incidence rate increased in the rural population aged 75+ years old (AAPC =4.2, P=0.023). Conclusions: The incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer significantly decreased in urban areas partly due to the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China. Nonetheless, the disease burden remains high, especially in males and elderly population. Comprehensive prevention and control programs, such as smoking cessation intervention, screening, early diagnosis and early treatment programs, need to be implemented to reduce the burden of lung cancer.

Risk of Liver Cirrhosis in HBV/HCV-Infected Individuals with First-Degree Relatives Who Have Liver Cancer: Development and Validation of a Simple Model.

Identification of high-risk population among hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals with first-degree relatives (FDR) who have liver cancer is important to implement precise intervention. A cross-sectional study was conducted under the framework of a population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC), aimed to develop and validate a simple noninvasive model that could assess and stratify cirrhosis risk, in HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer. People who participated in liver cancer screening in Henan province were enrolled. Using the data set consisting of participants admitted from October 1, 2013, to December 31, 2016, a 24-point scale risk score model was developed through logistic regression, based on educational background, dietary habit, smoking index, cooking oil fume exposure, history of severe trauma, HBV/HCV infection status, history of diabetes, history of hyperlipidemia, and parent history of liver cancer. The model showed excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.875 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.853-0.896] and fair calibration with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.106. The prevalence rates in the medium- and high-risk groups were 2.87 (95% CI, 1.94-4.25) and 47.57 (95% CI, 31.59-71.63) times of low-risk group, respectively. After internal validation, bias-corrected AUROC was 0.874 (95% CI, 0.873-0.875). In the external validation data set consisting of participants admitted from January 1, 2017, to October 31, 2018, the model had achieved similar discrimination, calibration, and risk stratification ability. In conclusion, the risk score model we developed can be a practical tool for the screening and prevention of liver cirrhosis among HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: We created a simple and noninvasive cirrhosis risk model for individuals infected by HBV/HCV who have FDRs with liver cancer. This model is useful not only for the prognosis of HBV/HCV infection, but also for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Molecular transmission network of pretreatment drug resistance among human immunodeficiency virus-positive individuals and the impact of virological failure on those who received antiretroviral therapy in China.

Objectives: We investigated the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR), the molecular transmission network among HIV-positive individuals, and the impact of virological failure on those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) in China. Methods: Based on the World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance guidelines for PDR, a baseline survey and follow-up were conducted in 2018 and 2021, respectively. Demographic information and plasma samples were obtained from all participants. HIV pol gene region sequences were used to analyze the PDR and molecular transmission networks using the Stanford HIV database algorithm and HIV-TRACE, respectively. This study assessed the odds ratios (OR) of PDR to virological failure (viral load ≥ 50 copies/mL) after 3 years of ART using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Of the 4,084 individuals, 370 (9.1%) had PDR. The prevalence of PDR to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (5.2%) was notably higher than that to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (0.7%, p < 0.001), protease inhibitors (3.0%, p < 0.001), and multidrug resistance (0.3%, p < 0.001). A total of 1,339 (32.8%) individuals from 361 clusters were enrolled in the molecular transmission network. Of the 361 clusters, 22 included two or more individuals with PDR. The prevalence of virological failure among HIV-positive individuals after 3 years of ART without PDR, those with PDR to Chinese listed drugs, and those with PDR to other drugs was 7.9, 14.3, and 12.6%, respectively. Compared with that in HIV-positive individuals without PDR, virological failure after 3 years of ART was significantly higher (OR: 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-3.27) and not significantly different (OR: 1.72, 95% CI: 0.87-3.43) in individuals with PDR to Chinese listed drugs and those with PDR to other drugs, respectively. Missed doses in the past month were significantly associated with virological failure (OR, 2.82; 95% CI: 4.08-5.89). Conclusion: The overall prevalence of PDR was close to a high level and had an impact on virological failure after 3 years of ART. Moreover, HIV drug-resistant strains were transmitted in the molecular transmission network. These results illustrate the importance of monitoring PDR and ensuring virological suppression through drug adherence.

Incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in 2017 and the time-trend from 2010 to 2017 in Henan province, China: a population-based registry study.

Background: Henan province is an area with a serious disease burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China. Understanding the current incidence and mortality and the time-trend is critical to formulate and optimize prevention and control strategies for CRC. However, the current incidence and mortality and time-trend of CRC in Henan province, China have not been reported. Methods: CRC data was got from the Henan Provincial Central Cancer Registry of China in which the data was submitted from local cancer registries. Combined with the census data, the incidence, mortality, proportion, age-standardized rate by Chinese population (ASRC), age-standardized rate by world population (ASRW), and cumulative incidence and mortality (0-74 years old) of CRC by urban and rural population, gender, and age groups were estimated. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) of ASRC from 2010 to 2017 were analyzed. Results: In 2017, it was estimated that there were 20,275 new cases and 10,046 deaths of CRC in Henan province. The crude incidence was 18.73/100,000, with an age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese population (ASIRC) of 13.97/100,000 and age-standardized mortality rate by world population (ASIRW) of 13.78/100,000. The cumulative incidence was 1.66%. The mortality rate was 9.28/100,000, with an age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese population (ASMRC) of 6.49/100,000 and an age-standardized mortality rate by world population (ASMRW) of 6.45/100,000. The cumulative mortality rate was 0.69%. The ASIRC and ASMRC were higher in urban areas (15.89/100,000, 7.19/100,000) than in rural areas (13.13/100,000, 6.20/100,000), and higher in males (15.53/100,000, 7.44/100,000) than in females (12.48/100,000, 5.66/100,000). The age-specific incidence reached the peak at age of 80-84, and the age-specific mortality reached the peak at age 85. From 2010 to 2017, the overall ASIRC and ASMRC showed a steady trend (P>0.05), while an upward trend was observed in the mortality rate in urban males (AAPC =3.4, 95% CI: 0.2-6.7, P=0.040). Conclusions: The incidence and mortality of CRC were high in Henan province, and higher in urban areas and males. It is critical to strengthen the prevention and control of CRC, carry out targeted intervention, and promote screening and early diagnosis and treatment, particularly among urban areas and males.

Genetic network analysis of human immunodeficiency virus sexual transmission in rural Southwest China after the expansion of antiretroviral therapy: A population-based study.

Background: This study is used to analyze the genetic network of HIV sexual transmission in rural areas of Southwest China after expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to investigate the factors associated with HIV sexual transmission through the genetic network. Materials and methods: This was a longitudinal genetic network study in Guangxi, China. The baseline survey and follow-up study were conducted among patients with HIV in 2015, and among those newly diagnosed from 2016 to 2018, respectively. A generalized estimating equation model was employed to explore the factors associated with HIV transmission through the genetic linkage between newly diagnosed patients with HIV (2016-2018) and those at baseline (2015-2017), respectively. Results: Of 3,259 identified HIV patient sequences, 2,714 patients were at baseline, and 545 were newly diagnosed patients with HIV at follow-up. A total of 8,691 baseline objectives were observed by repeated measurement analysis. The prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients was 33% [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-0.93]. Stratified analyses indicated the prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients with a viral load (VL) of <50 copies/ml and those treated for 4 years with a VL of <50 copies/ml to be 41 [AOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.43-0.82] and 65% [AOR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.24-0.50], respectively. No significant reduction in HIV transmission occurred among treated HIV patients with VL missing or treated HIV patients on dropout. Some factors were associated with HIV transmission, including over 50 years old, men, Zhuang and other nationalities, with less than secondary schooling, working as a farmer, and heterosexual transmission. Conclusion: This study reveals the role of ART in reducing HIV transmission, and those older male farmers with less than secondary schooling are at high risk of HIV infection at a population level. Improvements to ART efficacy for patients with HIV and precision intervention on high-risk individuals during the expansion of ART are urgently required.

Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Risk Score Model for Liver Cirrhosis in At-Risk Alcohol Drinkers Without HBV/HCV Infection.

At-risk alcohol consumption is the established most important risk factor for cirrhosis in people without HBV/HCV infection. We aimed to develop and validate a simple and non-invasive tool for triaging cirrhosis risk in at-risk alcohol drinkers without HBV/HCV infection. A large-sample size, cross-sectional study within the framework of a population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) was conducted. Data on the liver cancer screening in Henan province, China were used. At-risk alcohol drinkers were those who currently drink one or more alcohol units per week for at least six months. A total of 6,581 eligible participants enrolled from October 1, 2013 to December 31, 2016 were included into the derivation dataset, and 2,096 eligible participants enrolled from January 1, 2017 to October 31, 2018 were included into the external validation dataset, respectively. Using the derivation dataset, a 20-point scale risk score model was developed, based on sex, education background, dietary intake of vegetables, dietary intake of roughage, smoking index, length of secondhand smoke exposure, history of fatty liver, history of diabetes, and first-degree family history of liver cancer. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.787; 95% CI, 0.7603-0.812) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.123) in the derivation dataset and an optimal cut-off value of 12 yield sensitivity of 61.3%, specificity of 82.7%. The model also had achieved similar performance in the external validation dataset. In conclusion, this model can be a practical tool to identify and triage population at high risk of cirrhosis in at-risk alcohol drinkers without HBV/HCV infection. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: The risk model we developed will not only be used as a practical tool to triage high risk groups for liver cirrhosis, but also have implications for public health measures, such as guidelines for the prevention of liver cancer, in at-risk alcohol drinkers without HBV/HCV infection.

A cluster randomized controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of esophageal and gastric cancer screening in mortality reduction in a non-high-incidence area: methodology and initial results.

Background: A cluster randomized controlled trial of endoscopy-based screening for esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of this strategy in a non-high-incidence rural area of China. The trial design and baseline findings are presented here. Methods: A total of 33 eligible villages in Luoshan County in Henan Province were assigned randomly to the intervention or control group in a 1:1 ratio by a computer-generated randomization list. Local residents aged 40 to 69 years were enrolled from the villages. Participants in the intervention group were risk-stratified with a questionnaire, and high-risk individuals were subsequently screened by endoscopy. The primary outcomes were EC and GC mortality. The secondary outcomes comprised the detection rate, stage distribution, and the treatment rate. In this study, baseline characteristics were assessed by a questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to explore factors associated with endoscopy compliance. Results: Trial recruitment was completed in 2017, and ultimately, there were 12,475 and 11,442 participants allocated to the intervention (17 clusters) and the control group (16 clusters), respectively. We included 23,653 participants in the analysis, with 12,402 in the intervention group and 11,251 in the control group. A total of 6,286 (50.7%) participants in the intervention group were estimated as high-risk individuals, and 2,719 (43.3%) underwent endoscopy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that some factors including age, gender, education, personality and mental health, and upper gastrointestinal diseases or symptoms might affect endoscopy compliance. The detection rates for positive cases of EC and GC were 0.22% and 0.55%, respectively. The rates for esophageal and gastric precancerous lesions were 0.70% and 2.35%, respectively. The early detection rates for EC and GC were 50.0% and 33.3%, respectively. Additionally, the overall treatment rate for positive cases was 90.0%. Conclusions: The diagnostic yield of endoscopy-based screening for EC and GC was relatively low in a non-high-incidence rural area. The study may offer clues for the improvement of endoscopy compliance and the optimization of screening strategies for upper gastrointestinal cancer in non-high-incidence areas. Trial Registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR-EOR-16008577.

A risk prediction model for selecting high-risk population for computed tomography lung cancer screening in China.

OBJECTIVE: Two large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality. Risk-prediction models have been proved to select individuals for lung cancer screening effectively. With the focus on established risk factors for lung cancer routinely available in general cancer screening settings, we aimed to develop and internally validated a risk prediction model for lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) in Henan province, China between 2013 and 2019, we conducted a prospective cohort study consisting of 282,254 participants including 126,445 males and 155,809 females. Detailed questionnaire, physical assessment and follow-up were completed for all participants. Using Cox proportional risk regression analysis, we developed the Henan Lung Cancer Risk Models based on simplified questionnaire. Model discrimination was evaluated by concordance statistics (C-statistics), and model calibration was evaluated by the bootstrap sampling, respectively. RESULTS: By 2020, a total of 589 lung cancer cases occurred in the follow-up yielding an incident density of 64.91/100,000 person-years (pyrs). Age, gender, smoking, history of tuberculosis and history of emphysema were included into the model. The C-index of the model for 1-year lung cancer risk was 0.766 and 0.741 in the training set and validation set, respectively. In stratified analysis, the model showed better predictive power in males, younger participants, and former or current smoking participants. The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population and all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a simple risk prediction model for lung cancer, which may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for more intensive screening for cancer prevention.

Corrigendum: Construction and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Non-Smokers in China.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2021.766939.].

The transmission of drug-resistant strains of HIV in heterosexual populations based on genetic sequences.

BACKGROUND: China's National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program (NFATP) has substantially reduced morbidity and HIV/AIDS incidence since 2003. However, HIV resistance to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) has been a major challenge for the current treatment of HIV/AIDS in China. METHODS: In the current study, we established a nested dynamic model to predict the multi-drug resistance dynamics of HIV among the heterosexual population and evaluated the impact of intervention measures on the transmission of drug resistance. We obtained an effective reproductive number [Formula: see text] from each sub-model held at different stages of the dynamic model. Meanwhile, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to infer the weighted average effective reproductive number [Formula: see text] from four HIV subtypes that sampled from 912 HIV-positive patients in China. It is an original and innovative method by fitting [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate unknown parameters in [Formula: see text]. RESULTS: By analyzing the HIV gene sequences, we inferred that the most recent common ancestor of CRF01AE, CRF07BC, CRF08BC, and CRFBC dated from 1994, 1990, 1993 and 1990, respectively. The weighted average effective reproductive number [Formula: see text] dropped from 1.95 in 1994 to 1.73 in 2018. Considering different interventions, we used a macro dynamic model to predict the trend of HIV resistance. The results show that the number of new infections and total drug resistance under the baseline parameter (S1) are 253,422 and 213,250 in 2025, respectively. Comparing with the numbers under the target treatment rate (S2), they were 219,717 and 236,890, respectively. However, under the ideal treatment target (S3, the treatment rate reaches 90% and the treatment success rate reaches 90%), the number of new infections shows a declining trend and will decrease to 46,559 by 2025. Compared with S1 and S2, the total number of resistance also decreased to 160,899 in 2025. CONCLUSION: With the promotion of NFATP in China, HIV resistance to ARVs is inevitable. The strategy of increasing the treatment rate would not only ineffectively curb the epidemic, but also deteriorate drug resistance issue. Whereas, a combination of intervention strategies (the treatment rate reaches 90% and the treatment success rate reaches 90%) can greatly reduce both infection and drug resistance rate than applying one strategy alone.

Changing Proportions of HIV-1 Subtypes and Transmitted Drug Resistance Among Newly Diagnosed HIV/AIDS Individuals - China, 2015 and 2018.

INTRODUCTION: With the expansion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV drug resistance is becoming more and more serious. This study describes the changing prevalence of HIV-1 subtypes and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) among newly diagnosed individuals in China, 2015 and 2018. METHODS: A total of 8,980 individuals in 2015 and 2018 from 31 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) were enrolled in this study. Viral RNAs were amplified and sequenced using an in-house polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol. The Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVdb) was used to predict susceptibility to 12 antiretroviral drugs. RESULTS: The prevalence of TDR was not significantly increased over time. The prevalence of TDR was 3.8% and 4.4% in 2015 and 2018, respectively (P=0.13). The prevalence of CRF55_01B increased from 2.3% in 2015 to 3.9% in 2018 (P<0.001). The drug resistance prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) increased from 2.4% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2018 (P<0.01). The prevalence of E138 (P<0.001), H221 (P=0.03), and V179 (P<0.001) mutations increased from 0.30%, 0.09%, and 0.70% in 2015 to 1.10%, 0.30%, and 1.70% in 2018, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: HIV drug resistance affects the effect of antiretroviral treatment, so the monitoring of HIV TDR should be strengthened to control the transmission of HIV drug resistance.

Using longitudinal genetic-network study to understand HIV treatment-as-prevention.

OBJECTIVE: The WHO has recommended that antiretroviral therapy be provided to all HIV patients to reduce future HIV transmission rates. However, few studies have examined this public health strategy at the population level in a real-world setting. METHODS: In this longitudinal genetic-network study in Guangxi, China, the baseline and follow-up data were collected from HIV patients in 2014 and newly diagnosed HIV patients from 2015 to 2018, respectively. The prevention efficacy was used to estimate the effect of treatment-as-prevention in reducing HIV secondary transmission. RESULTS: Among 804 newly diagnosed HIV patients during 2015-2018, 399 (49.6%) of them genetically linked to HIV patients at baseline during 2014-2017. The overall proportion of genetic linkage between newly diagnosed HIV patients during 2015-2018 with untreated and treated HIV patients at baseline during 2014-2017 was 6.2 and 2.9%, respectively. The prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients was 53.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 42.1-65.1]. Subgroup analyses indicated an 80.3% (95% CI: 74.8-85.8) reduction in HIV transmission among HIV patients who were treated for 4 years or more and had viral loads less than 50 copies/ml. There was no significant reduction in HIV transmission among treated HIV patients who dropped out or who had missing viral load measures. CONCLUSION: Our study results support the feasibility of treating all HIV patients for future reductions in HIV transmission at the population level in real-world settings. Comprehensive intervention prevention programmes are urgently needed.