Prevalence of trachoma in unity state, South Sudan: results from a large-scale population-based survey and potential implications for further surveys.

BACKGROUND: Large parts of South Sudan are thought to be trachoma-endemic but baseline data are limited. This study aimed to estimate prevalence for planning trachoma interventions in Unity State, to identify risk factors and to investigate the effect of different sampling approaches on study conclusions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The survey area was defined as one domain of eight counties in Unity State. Across the area, 40 clusters (villages) were randomly selected proportional to the county population size in a population-based prevalence survey. The simplified grading scheme was used to classify clinical signs of trachoma. The unadjusted prevalence of trachoma inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years was 70.5% (95% CI: 68.6-72.3). After adjusting for age, sex, county and clustering of cases at household and village level the prevalence was 71.0% (95% CI: 69.9-72.1). The prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in adults was 15.1% (95% CI: 13.4-17.0) and 13.5% (95% CI: 12.0-15.1) before and after adjustment, respectively. We estimate that 700,000 people (the entire population of Unity State) require antibiotic treatment and approximately 54,178 people require TT surgery. Risk factor analyses confirmed child-level associations with TF and highlighted that older adults living in poverty are at higher risk of TT. Conditional simulations, testing the alternatives of sampling 20 or 60 villages over the same area, indicated that sampling of only 20 villages would have provided an acceptable level of precision for state-level prevalence estimation to inform intervention decisions in this hyperendemic setting. CONCLUSION: Trachoma poses an enormous burden on the population of Unity State. Comprehensive control is urgently required to avoid preventable blindness and should be initiated across the state now. In other parts of South Sudan suspected to be highly trachoma endemic, counties should be combined into larger survey areas to generate the baseline data required to initiate interventions.

Trachoma rapid assessments in Unity and Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal States, Southern Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is thought to be endemic over large parts of Southern Sudan, but empirical evidence is limited. While some areas east of the Nile have been identified as highly endemic, few trachoma surveys have been conducted in the remainder of the country. This study aimed to determine whether trachoma constitutes a problem to public health in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal and Unity State, both located west of the Nile. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Trachoma rapid assessments (TRA) were conducted between July and September 2009. Seven villages in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal State and 13 villages in Unity State were surveyed; an average of 50 children (age 1-9 years) and 44 women (age 15 years and above) were examined per village. Samples for analysis using the APTIMA Combo-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) were collected from participants with active trachoma in eight villages in Unity State. In Northern Bahr-el-Ghazal State, only three children with active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) and/or trachomatous inflammation intense (TI)) and two women with trichiasis (TT) were found, in two of the seven villages surveyed. In Unity State, trachoma was endemic in all thirteen villages surveyed; the proportion of children with active trachoma ranged from 33% to 75% between villages, while TF in children ranged from 16% to 44%. Between 4% to 51% of examined women showed signs of TT. Samples from active trachoma cases tested using the NAAT were positive for Chlamydia trachomatis infection for 46.6% of children and 19.0% of women. CONCLUSIONS: Trachoma presents a major problem to public health Unity State, while the disease is of low priority in Northern-Bahr-el-Ghazal State. Implementation of a population-based prevalence survey is now required in Unity State to generate baseline prevalence data so that trachoma interventions can be initiated and monitored over time.

Targeting trachoma control through risk mapping: the example of Southern Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1-9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. CONCLUSION: In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention.

Trachoma in Western Equatoria State, Southern Sudan: implications for national control.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is thought to be common over large parts of Southern Sudan. However, many areas of the country, particularly west of the Nile, have not yet been surveyed. The aim of this study was to confirm whether trachoma extends into Western Equatoria State from neighboring Central Equatoria, where trachoma is highly prevalent, and whether intervention with the SAFE strategy is required. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Population-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted using a two-stage cluster random sampling method to select the study population. Subjects were examined for trachoma by experienced graders using the World Health Organization (WHO) simplified grading scheme. Two counties thought to be most likely to have trachoma were surveyed, Maridi and Mundri. In Maridi, prevalence of one of the signs of active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF)) in children aged 1-9 years was 0.4% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.0%-0.8%), while no children showing the other possible sign, trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI), were identified. No trachomatous trichiasis (TT) was found in those aged under 15, and prevalence was 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.4%) in those aged 15 years and above. In Mundri, active trachoma was also limited to signs of TF, with a prevalence of 4.1% (95% CI, 1.4%-6.9%) in children aged 1-9 years. Again, no TT was found in those aged under 15, and prevalence in those aged 15 years and above was 0.3% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.8%). CONCLUSION: Trachoma prevalence in the east of Western Equatoria State is below the WHO recommended intervention threshold for mass drug administration of antibiotic treatment in all villages. However, the prevalence of TF and TT in some villages, particularly in Mundri County, is sufficiently high to warrant targeted interventions at the community level. These results demonstrate that trachoma is not a major public health problem throughout Southern Sudan. Further studies will be required to determine trachoma prevalence in other areas, particularly west of the Nile, but there are presently no resources to survey each county. Studies should thus be targeted to areas where collection of new data would be most informative.