Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and sequelae in the United Kingdom during the period 2008 to 2017 - a secondary database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes high fatality in untreated patients alongside long-term sequelae in 20% survivors. For a comprehensive assessment of epidemiology, an analysis of these sequelae is required. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of disease between 2008 and 2017 including a description of the sequelae, through the analysis of data collected from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality registry data. METHODS: This was a 10-year retrospective observational cohort study designed to describe the incidence, case-fatality rate (CFR) and occurrence of sequelae due to meningococcal disease, in the UK between 2007 and 2017 using data from the UK CPRD-HES-ONS. Cases were identified and matched on age, gender, date of diagnosis of IMD and followed-up-time with a control group without IMD. Demographics, clinical characteristics, mortality, and IMD-related sequelae were examined for IMD cases and compared with matched controls for a more comprehensive assessment. RESULTS: The study analysed 640 IMD patients with majority of the cases diagnosed (76.9%) in a hospital setting. Age-group analysis showed a decrease in the incidence rate of IMD in patients aged <1 year (30.4 - 7.5%) and an increase in those >50 years (10.4 - 27.8%). CFR was slightly higher among females, toddlers, and adults >50 years. No significant change in CFR was observed over study period. Case-control study showed a higher number of IMD sequelae among cases compared to age- and gender-matched controls, especially in those ≥ 50 years. CONCLUSION: The study showed that, despite a relatively low incidence rate, IMD is responsible for a high CFR, namely in older age groups and by a high number of IMD sequelae. The study showed that leveraging data from existing databases can be used to complement surveillance data in truly assessing the epidemiology of IMD. Despite the availability of routine vaccination programs, IMD still poses a significant burden in the healthcare system of the UK. Optimization of vaccination programs may be required to reduce the disease burden.

CYD Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine Performance by Baseline Immune Profile (Monotypic/Multitypic) in Dengue-Seropositive Individuals.

BACKGROUND: The immune profile of dengue-experienced individuals is a determinant of dengue reinfection severity risk. Individuals with a single prior dengue infection (monotypic) are at highest risk for severe disease, while individuals with ≥ 2 prior dengue infections (multitypic) are at lower risk. The tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) has shown efficacy in the prevention of dengue in individuals with prior dengue infection. We estimated efficacy in individuals with monotypic or multitypic immune profiles. METHODS: Participants enrolled in the immunogenicity subsets of 2 randomized placebo-controlled phase 3 studies (CYD14, NCT01373281; CYD15, NCT01374516) were classified as either monotypic or multitypic, based on measured baseline dengue plaque reduction neutralization test. Vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) was assessed over 25 months and against VCD hospitalization over 6 years. RESULTS: Of 3927 participants in the immunogenicity subsets, 496 and 257 in the CYD-TDV and placebo groups, respectively, were classified as monotypic immune, and 1227 and 612, respectively, as multitypic immune. VE against symptomatic VCD was 77.4% (95% CI, 56.4%-88.2%) for monotypic and 89.2% (95% CI, 71.5%-95.9%) for multitypic profiles, with corresponding absolute risk reductions (ARRs) of 4.48% (95% CI, 2.32%-6.65%) for monotypics and 1.67% (95% CI, .89%-2.46%) for multitypics. VE against hospitalized VCD was 75.3% (95% CI, 42.7%-90.2%) in monotypics and 81.2% (95% CI, 21.7%-96.8%) in multitypics, with ARRs of 0.95% (95% CI, .37%-1.53%) for monotypics and 0.18% (95% CI, .02%-.34%) for multitypics. CONCLUSIONS: CYD-TDV benefits individuals with monotypic and multitypic immune profiles. Larger public health benefit is expected to derive from the protection of individuals with a monotypic immune profile.

Effect of Dengue Serostatus on Dengue Vaccine Safety and Efficacy.

BACKGROUND: In efficacy trials of a tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV), excess hospitalizations for dengue were observed among vaccine recipients 2 to 5 years of age. Precise risk estimates according to observed dengue serostatus could not be ascertained because of the limited numbers of samples collected at baseline. We developed a dengue anti-nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and used samples from month 13 to infer serostatus for a post hoc analysis of safety and efficacy. METHODS: In a case-cohort study, we reanalyzed data from three efficacy trials. For the principal analyses, we used baseline serostatus determined on the basis of measured (when baseline values were available) or imputed (when baseline values were missing) titers from a 50% plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT50), with imputation conducted with the use of covariates that included the month 13 anti-NS1 assay results. The risk of hospitalization for virologically confirmed dengue (VCD), of severe VCD, and of symptomatic VCD according to dengue serostatus was estimated by weighted Cox regression and targeted minimum loss-based estimation. RESULTS: Among dengue-seronegative participants 2 to 16 years of age, the cumulative 5-year incidence of hospitalization for VCD was 3.06% among vaccine recipients and 1.87% among controls, with a hazard ratio (vaccine vs. control) through data cutoff of 1.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 2.70). Among dengue-seronegative participants 9 to 16 years of age, the cumulative incidence of hospitalization for VCD was 1.57% among vaccine recipients and 1.09% among controls, with a hazard ratio of 1.41 (95% CI, 0.74 to 2.68). Similar trends toward a higher risk among seronegative vaccine recipients than among seronegative controls were also found for severe VCD. Among dengue-seropositive participants 2 to 16 years of age and those 9 to 16 years of age, the cumulative incidence of hospitalization for VCD was 0.75% and 0.38%, respectively, among vaccine recipients and 2.47% and 1.88% among controls, with hazard ratios of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.23 to 0.45) and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.31). The risk of severe VCD was also lower among seropositive vaccine recipients than among seropositive controls. CONCLUSIONS: CYD-TDV protected against severe VCD and hospitalization for VCD for 5 years in persons who had exposure to dengue before vaccination, and there was evidence of a higher risk of these outcomes in vaccinated persons who had not been exposed to dengue. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00842530 , NCT01983553 , NCT01373281 , and NCT01374516 .).

Viral genetic diversity and protective efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in two phase 3 trials.

Two phase 3 placebo-controlled trials of the CYD-TDV vaccine, evaluated in children aged 2-14 y (CYD14) and 9-16 y (CYD15), demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively, against symptomatic virologically confirmed dengue (VCD). Sieve analyses were conducted to evaluate whether and how VE varied with amino acid sequence features of dengue viruses (DENVs). DENV premembrane/envelope amino acid sequences from VCD endpoint cases were aligned with the vaccine insert sequences, and extensions of the proportional hazards model were applied to assess variation in VE with amino acid mismatch proportion distances from vaccine strains, individual amino acid residues, and phylogenetic genotypes. In CYD14, VE against VCD of any serotype (DENV-Any) decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the vaccine, whereas in CYD15, VE against DENV-Any was distance-invariant. Restricting to the common age range and amino acid distance range between the trials and accounting for differential VE by serotype, however, showed no evidence of VE variation with distance in either trial. In serotype-specific analyses, VE against DENV4 decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the DENV4 vaccine insert and was significantly greater against residue-matched DENV4 at eight signature positions. These effects were restricted to 2- to 8-y-olds, potentially because greater seropositivity of older children at baseline might facilitate a broader protective immune response. The relevance of an antigenic match between vaccine strains and circulating DENVs was also supported by greater estimated VE against serotypes and genotypes for which the circulating DENVs had shorter amino acid sequence distances from the vaccine.

Efficacy of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in children in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: In light of the increasing rate of dengue infections throughout the world despite vector-control measures, several dengue vaccine candidates are in development. METHODS: In a phase 3 efficacy trial of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in five Latin American countries where dengue is endemic, we randomly assigned healthy children between the ages of 9 and 16 years in a 2:1 ratio to receive three injections of recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) or placebo at months 0, 6, and 12 under blinded conditions. The children were then followed for 25 months. The primary outcome was vaccine efficacy against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue (VCD), regardless of disease severity or serotype, occurring more than 28 days after the third injection. RESULTS: A total of 20,869 healthy children received either vaccine or placebo. At baseline, 79.4% of an immunogenicity subgroup of 1944 children had seropositive status for one or more dengue serotypes. In the per-protocol population, there were 176 VCD cases (with 11,793 person-years at risk) in the vaccine group and 221 VCD cases (with 5809 person-years at risk) in the control group, for a vaccine efficacy of 60.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.0 to 68.0). In the intention-to-treat population (those who received at least one injection), vaccine efficacy was 64.7% (95% CI, 58.7 to 69.8). Serotype-specific vaccine efficacy was 50.3% for serotype 1, 42.3% for serotype 2, 74.0% for serotype 3, and 77.7% for serotype 4. Among the severe VCD cases, 1 of 12 was in the vaccine group, for an intention-to-treat vaccine efficacy of 95.5%. Vaccine efficacy against hospitalization for dengue was 80.3%. The safety profile for the CYD-TDV vaccine was similar to that for placebo, with no marked difference in rates of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: The CYD-TDV dengue vaccine was efficacious against VCD and severe VCD and led to fewer hospitalizations for VCD in five Latin American countries where dengue is endemic. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01374516.).

Clinical efficacy and safety of a novel tetravalent dengue vaccine in healthy children in Asia: a phase 3, randomised, observer-masked, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 100 million people have symptomatic dengue infection every year. This is the first report of a phase 3 vaccine efficacy trial of a candidate dengue vaccine. We aimed to assess the efficacy of the CYD dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue in children. METHODS: We did an observer-masked, randomised controlled, multicentre, phase 3 trial in five countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Between June 3, and Dec 1, 2011, healthy children aged 2-14 years were randomly assigned (2:1), by computer-generated permuted blocks of six with an interactive voice or web response system, to receive three injections of a recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV), or placebo, at months 0, 6, and 12. Randomisation was stratified by age and site. Participants were followed up until month 25. Trial staff responsible for the preparation and administration of injections were unmasked to group allocation, but were not included in the follow-up of the participants; allocation was concealed from the study sponsor, investigators, and parents and guardians. Our primary objective was to assess protective efficacy against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue, irrespective of disease severity or serotype, that took place more than 28 days after the third injection. The primary endpoint was for the lower bound of the 95% CI of vaccine efficacy to be greater than 25%. Analysis was by intention to treat and per procotol. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01373281. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 10,275 children to receive either vaccine (n=6851) or placebo (n=3424), of whom 6710 (98%) and 3350 (98%), respectively, were included in the primary analysis. 250 cases of virologically confirmed dengue took place more than 28 days after the third injection (117 [47%] in the vaccine group and 133 [53%] in the control group). The primary endpoint was achieved with 56·5% (95% CI 43·8-66·4) efficacy. We recorded 647 serious adverse events (402 [62%] in the vaccine group and 245 [38%] in the control group). 54 (1%) children in the vaccine group and 33 (1%) of those in the control group had serious adverse events that happened within 28 days of vaccination. Serious adverse events were consistent with medical disorders in this age group and were mainly infections and injuries. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that dengue vaccine is efficacious when given as three injections at months 0, 6, and 12 to children aged 2-14 years in endemic areas in Asia, and has a good safety profile. Vaccination could reduce the incidence of symptomatic infection and hospital admission and has the potential to provide an important public health benefit. FUNDING: Sanofi Pasteur.

Preferences of healthcare providers in Switzerland for attributes of pediatric hexavalent vaccines: a discrete-choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the preferences of healthcare providers (HCPs) in Switzerland for pediatric hexavalent vaccine attributes. METHODS: A discrete-choice experiment included a series of choices between 2 hypothetical pediatric hexavalent vaccines with varying attributes: device type (including preparation time and risk of dosage errors), proportion of infants seroprotected against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) at 11-12 months (pre-booster), packaging size, years on the market, and the thermostability at room temperature. Odds ratios (ORs) and conditional relative attribute importance (CRAI) were calculated using random-parameters logit. RESULTS: HCPs (150 pediatricians and 40 nursing staff) in Switzerland were unlikely to choose a vaccine conferring 50% (OR 0.00; 95% CI 0.00-0.00) or 70% (OR 0.01; 95% CI 0.00-0.01) of infants with Hib seroprotection at 11-12 months (pre-booster) compared with a vaccine conferring 90% seroprotection. The odds of choosing a vaccine available on the market for more than 3 years were nearly 5 times the odds of choosing a vaccine available on the market for less than 1 year (OR 4.76; 95% CI 1.87-7.65). The odds of choosing a vaccine in a prefilled syringe were nearly 3 times the odds of choosing a reconstituted vaccine (OR 2.77; 95% CI 1.39-4.15), and the odds of choosing a vaccine with a smaller package size were nearly 2 times the odds of choosing a vaccine with larger package size (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.23-2.55). HCPs were equally likely to choose vaccines that can stay at room temperature for 6 versus 3 days (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.73-1.42). According to CRAI, the most important attribute was Hib seroprotection, followed by years on the market, device type, and packaging size. CONCLUSION: Hib seroprotection at 11-12 months was the most important hexavalent vaccine attribute to HCPs in this study.

Modelling the Public Health Impact of MenACWY and MenC Adolescent Vaccination Strategies in Germany.

INTRODUCTION: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes significant mortality and long-term sequelae. This study assesses the potential public health impact of adolescent vaccination strategies employing MenACWY and MenC vaccines in Germany, where the existing meningococcal immunisation programme predominantly involves MenC administration in toddlers. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was developed to simulate the carriage of five meningococcal serogroup compartments (AY/B/C/W/Other) from 2019 until 2060 within 1-year age groups from 0 to 99 years of age. IMD cases were estimated based on case-carrier ratios. The model considered vaccine effectiveness against carriage acquisition and IMD. RESULTS: The model predicts that introducing MenACWY adolescent vaccination could lead to a considerable reduction in IMD incidence, with the potential to prevent up to 65 cases per year and a cumulative total of 1467 cases by 2060. This decrease, mainly driven by herd effects, would result in a reduction of IMD incidence across all age groups, regardless of vaccination age. Furthermore, implementing MenACWY vaccination in adolescents is projected to decrease annual MenACWY-related IMD mortality by up to 64%, equating to an overall prevention of 156 IMD deaths by 2060. These protective outcomes are expected to culminate in approximately 2250 life years gained (LYG) throughout the model's projected time horizon. In contrast, the adoption of MenC vaccination in adolescents is predicted to have minimal influence on both IMD incidence and mortality, as well as on LYG. CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate that implementing MenACWY vaccination for adolescents in Germany is likely to notably reduce IMD incidence and mortality across age groups. However, the introduction of MenC adolescent vaccination shows only limited impact. Considering the extensive healthcare resources typically required for IMD management, these findings suggest the potential for economic benefits associated with the adoption of MenACWY adolescent vaccination, warranting further cost-effectiveness analysis.

Evolution of Pneumococcal Vaccine Recommendations and Criteria for Decision Making in 5 Western European Countries and the United States.

Objectives: Pneumococcal vaccine recommendations have become increasingly complex. This study aims to understand how national immunization technical advisory groups (NITAGs) and health technology assessment (HTA) agencies of 5 European countries and the United States formed their pneumococcal vaccine recommendations, by providing reviewed evidence and key drivers for new recommendations. Methods: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and National Health Authorities Web sites were screened to capture the evolution of pneumococcal recommendations. A narrative review was conducted on NITAGs and HTA bodies' Web sites. Assessments of pneumococcal vaccines published from 2009 to 2022 were included. Results: Thirty-four records were identified including 21 assessments for risk groups, 17 for elderly, and 12 for children. Burden of disease and vaccine characteristics were almost systematically reviewed during assessments. All 6 countries recommended the use of higher-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV; i.e., PCV10 and PCV13) in childhood vaccination programs, given their broader serotype coverage and their comparable profile to PCV7. PCV13 was progressively added to the vaccine schedule (in addition to polysaccharide vaccine) in at least the high-risk group, given the high burden in this population and expected additional benefits of PCV13. For the elderly, unlike the United States, European countries issued negative recommendation for PCV13 routine use because of substantial herd effects from childhood vaccination program making PCV13 likely not cost-effective. Conclusions: This research provides an overview of decision-making processes for higher-valent PCVs recommendations and could be of interest to anticipate the place of next generation of PCVs in the vaccination landscape. Highlights: By describing evidence-based criteria for decision making, this study emphasizes the framework analysis of NITAGs and HTA bodies when assessing pneumococcal vaccines and demonstrates that variation exists between countries and also according to population evaluated.While the burden of disease and immunogenicity/efficacy data were almost systematically reviewed by national stakeholders, economic assessments were reported to a lesser extent but played a major role in the limited use of PCV13 in the adult population.

Zika and Dengue Interactions in the Context of a Large Dengue Vaccine Clinical Trial in Latin America.

A phase III dengue vaccine trial including 9- to 16-year-olds in Latin America (NCT01374516) was ongoing at the time of a Zika outbreak. We explored interactions between dengue and Zika, in the context of dengue vaccination. Symptomatic virologically confirmed Zika (VCZ) was evaluated using acute-phase sera from febrile participants (January 2013-March 2018). Neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) were evaluated pre- and post-Zika outbreak (months 25 and 72) in 2,000 randomly selected participants. Baseline dengue serostatus was determined using the plaque reduction neutralization test or inferred post hoc using nonstructural protein 1 IgG ELISA at M13 (case-cohort analysis). Vaccine efficacy against VCZ and serologically suspected Zika (SSZ) was estimated. Overall, 239/10,157 (2.4%) acute-phase samples were VCZ positive during the study. Dengue vaccine efficacy against VCZ was 27.8% (95% CI: 0.3; 47.7) among baseline dengue-seropositive participants. No vaccine effect was evident against SSZ. Zika antibody GMTs increased from pre- to post-Zika epidemic, with smaller increases observed for participants who were dengue seropositive at baseline than for those who were dengue seronegative: post-/pre-Zika GMT ratios for baseline dengue-seropositive participants were 21.5 (vaccine group) and 30.8 (placebo); and for dengue seronegatives, 88.1 and 89.5, respectively. Dengue antibody GMTs post-Zika were higher in dengue vaccine and placebo recipients with SSZ than those without SSZ in both dengue seropositives and seronegatives. Dengue vaccine did not enhance symptomatic Zika illness in dengue-seropositive individuals, rather it reduced the risk of VCZ. Zika infection boosted preexisting vaccine-induced or naturally occurring dengue-neutralizing antibodies.

Efficacy after 1 and 2 doses of CYD-TDV in dengue endemic areas by dengue serostatus.

A simplified dose regimen of the live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) could have the potential to facilitate easier implementation of immunization programs against symptomatic virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) in dengue seropositive individuals aged ≥ 9 years. This post-hoc analysis of two Phase III studies (CYD14 [NCT01373281] and CYD15 [NCT01374516]) in dengue endemic areas assessed the efficacy of CYD-TDV by dengue serostatus between dose 1 and 2 (at Month [M] 6), between dose 2 and 3 (at M12), and from dose 3 to M25. Baseline dengue serostatus (seropositive or seronegative) was determined based on measured dengue neutralizing antibody titers with the 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) or ascertained by logistic regression-based multiple imputation (MI) to predict PRNT50. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic VCD was assessed by age and baseline dengue serostatus using a case-cohort framework. Dengue neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) were measured with the PRNT50 at 28 days post-dose 2 and 3. Vaccine efficacy estimates in seropositive participants aged ≥ 9 years at post-dose 1, 2, and 3 were 80.5% (95% CI, 66.2, 88.7), 82.0% (95% CI, 70.5, 89.0), and 75.2% (95% CI, 65.9, 81.9), respectively. In seropositive participants aged < 9 years, vaccine efficacy estimates were 48.5% (95% CI, -24.3, 78.6), 68.3% (95% CI, 34.5, 84.7), and 65.3% (95% CI, 40.2, 79.9), respectively. CYD-TDV efficacy was null to modest after any dose in seronegative participants, regardless of age group. Seropositive participants aged ≥ 9 years in the CYD-TDV group had GMTs post-dose 3 that did not exceed those observed post-dose 2. In conclusion, CYD-TDV has high efficacy against VCD from the first dose through to M25, with estimates at post-dose 1 and 2 similar to or higher than those at post-dose 3 in seropositive participants aged ≥ 9 years, consistent with immunogenicity data.

Assessment of the long-term efficacy of a dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue disease by baseline dengue serostatus.

CYD-TDV is a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine licensed in 21 countries. We undertook a post-hoc analysis of the long-term efficacy of CYD-TDV during the surveillance expansion phase (SEP) of two Phase III studies (CYD14 in the Asia-Pacific region; CYD15 in Latin America). The SEP included approximately Year 5 and the entire Year 6 of follow-up after the first study injection. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) was assessed by participant age (any age, ≥9, <9, 2-5, and 6-8 years at the time of the first injection) and baseline dengue serostatus using a case-cohort framework. Baseline dengue serostatus was estimated by several methods including logistic regression-based multiple imputation (MI) to predict PRNT50 with key predictor being Month 13 (M13) anti-non-structural protein (NS1) titers; superlearner-based imputation by targeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE); and M13 anti-NS1 titer threshold 9 EU/mL (NS1 M13). There were 436 symptomatic VCD cases (CYD14: n = 360; CYD15: n = 76) during the SEP. Vaccine efficacy in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years was assessed by MI (47.9% [95% CI 19.4; 66.3]), TMLE (53.0% [95% CI 23; 71]), and NS1 M13 (52.4% [95% CI 30.8; 67.3]). Vaccine efficacy estimates were lower in seropositive individuals aged <9 years compared with individuals ≥9 years. Among seropositive individuals aged 2-5 and 6-8 years, vaccine efficacy across the different approaches for assessing serostatus ranged from between -25.7 to 36.9% and 44.4 to 64.7% during the SEP, respectively. In the pooled CYD14/15 data of seronegatives, vaccine efficacy was null to modest. In conclusion, CYD-TDV was shown to maintain efficacy against symptomatic VCD in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years up to six years after the first dose. Persistence of efficacy was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6-8 years.

Periods of high dengue transmission defined by rainfall do not impact efficacy of dengue vaccine in regions of endemic disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of rainy season with overall dengue disease incidence and with the efficacy of the Sanofi Pasteur recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine (CYD-TDV) in two randomized, controlled multicenter phase III clinical trials in Asia and Latin America. METHODS: Rainy seasons were defined for each study site using climatological information from the World Meteorological Organization. The dengue attack rate in the placebo group for each study month was calculated as the number of symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue events in a given month divided by the number of participants at risk in the same month. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to test whether rainy season was associated with dengue disease and whether it modified vaccine efficacy in each of the two trials and in both of the trials combined. FINDINGS: Rainy season, country, and age were all significantly associated with dengue disease in both studies. Vaccine efficacy did not change during the rainy season in any of the analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Although dengue transmission and exposure are expected to increase during the rainy season, our results indicate that CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy remains constant throughout the year in endemic regions.

Genetic epidemiology of dengue viruses in phase III trials of the CYD tetravalent dengue vaccine and implications for efficacy.

This study defined the genetic epidemiology of dengue viruses (DENV) in two pivotal phase III trials of the tetravalent dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV, and thereby enabled virus genotype-specific estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE). Envelope gene sequences (n = 661) from 11 DENV genotypes in 10 endemic countries provided a contemporaneous global snapshot of DENV population genetics and revealed high amino acid identity between the E genes of vaccine strains and wild-type viruses from trial participants, including at epitope sites targeted by virus neutralising human monoclonal antibodies. Post-hoc analysis of all CYD14/15 trial participants revealed a statistically significant genotype-level VE association within DENV-4, where efficacy was lowest against genotype I. In subgroup analysis of trial participants age 9-16 years, VE estimates appeared more balanced within each serotype, suggesting that genotype-level heterogeneity may be limited in older children. Post-licensure surveillance is needed to monitor vaccine performance against the backdrop of DENV sequence diversity and evolution.