Patient population with multiple myeloma and transitions across different lines of therapy in the USA: an epidemiologic model.

PURPOSE: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a progressive, malignant neoplasia with a worldwide, age-standardized annual incidence of 1.5 per 100 000 individuals and 5-year prevalence around 230 000 patients. Main favorable prognostic factors are younger age, low/standard cytogenetic risk, and undergoing stem cell transplantation. Our aim was to estimate the size of the patient population with MM eligible to receive a new MM therapy at different lines of therapy in the USA. METHODS: We constructed a compartmental, differential equation model representing the flow of MM patients from diagnosis to death, via two possible treatment pathways and distinguished in four groups based on prognostic factors. Parameters were obtained from published references, available statistics, and assumptions. The model was used to estimate number of diagnosed MM patients and number of patient transitions from one line of therapy to the next over 1 year. Model output included 95% credible intervals from probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The base-case estimates were 80 219 patients living with MM, including 70 375 on treatment, 780 symptomatic untreated patients, and 9064 asymptomatic untreated patients. Over a 1-year period, the number of MM patients on treatment line 1 was estimated at 23 629 (credible intervals 22 236-25 029), and the number of transitions from treatment line 1 to treatment line 2 was estimated at 14 423. CONCLUSIONS: The size of the patient population with MM on different lines of therapy and in patient subgroups of interest estimated from this epidemiologic model can be used to assess the number of patients who could benefit from new MM therapies and their corresponding budgetary impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A case-control study to assess the risk of immune thrombocytopenia associated with vaccines.

The cause of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) remains unknown. Studies have suggested immunizations as possible triggering factors of ITP through molecular mimicry. This case-control study explored potential associations between adult ITP and various routinely administered vaccines. A network of internal medicine and hematology centers across France recruited 198 incident (ie, newly diagnosed) cases of ITP between April 2008 and June 2011. These cases were compared with 878 age- and sex-matched controls without ITP recruited in general practice. Information on vaccination was obtained from patients' standardized telephone interviews. Sixty-six of 198 cases (33.3%) and 303 of 878 controls (34.5%) received at least 1 vaccine within the 12 months before the index date. We found no evidence of an increase in ITP after vaccination in the previous 6 or 12 months (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the previous 12 months = 1.0; 95% confidence interval, 0.7-1.4). When the 2-month time window was used, higher ORs were observed for all vaccines (OR = 1.3). This increase was mainly attributable to the vaccination against diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-poliomyelitis (OR = 1.5) and was not statistically significant. The results of the present study show that in an adult population, the exposure to common vaccines is on average not associated with an observable risk of developing ITP.

SNP rs6457327 in the HLA region on chromosome 6p is predictive of the transformation of follicular lymphoma.

Inherited risk determinants for follicular lymphoma (FL) have recently been described in the immune gene-rich human leukocyte antigen region on chromosome 6p. The known importance of host immune response to FL survival led us to evaluate these germline factors in FL outcome. We confirm the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms rs10484561 (P = 3.5 × 10⁻9) and rs6457327 (P = .008) with risk of FL and demonstrate that rs6457327 predicts both time to (P = .02) and risk of (P < .01) FL transformation independently of clinical variables, including the Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index.

Agreement between patients' self-report and medical records for vaccination: the PGRx database.

PURPOSE: Patients' self-reported vaccine exposure (PS) may be subject to memory errors and other biases. Physicians' prescription records and other medical records (MR) do not capture noncompliance with vaccination. This study compared PS with MR for influenza, 23-valent pneumococcal, and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. METHODS: The Pharmacoepidemiologic General Research Extension (PGRx) database uses a network of over 300 general practitioners across France, who systematically recruit an age- and sex-stratified sample of patients (≥ 14 years old), without reference to their diagnoses or prescriptions. Patients received a structured telephone interview, combined with an interview guide listing vaccines commonly given. Patients' self-reported vaccination in the 3 years before their recruitment was compared with medical records kept by the physician or the patient. RESULTS: Concordance between PS and MR was assessed for 7613 patients for whom both sources of information were available. Agreement within 3 years before the recruitment date was substantial for influenza vaccines (prevalence and bias-adjusted kappa [PABAK] = 0.74, sensitivity PS relative to MR 81.5%) and high for 23-valent pneumococcal vaccines (PABAK = 0.98, sensitivity PS 49.6) and HPV vaccines (PABAK = 0.92, sensitivity PS 91.6). In adjusted analyses, agreement varied with sociodemographic and health-related factors, particularly for influenza and 23-valent pneumococcal vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: The PGRx method for drug exposure assessment is a new tool in pharmacoepidemiology that shows substantial to high agreement between PS and MR for exposure to various vaccines. Our finding of high agreement between PS and MR for HPV vaccination status in young women is a significant addition to the literature.

A toolkit for monitoring hospital-acquired bloodstream infection in neonatal intensive care.

OBJECTIVE: In neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), monitoring hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (BSI) is critical to alert clinicians to variations in the incidence of infection between units and over time. We demonstrate a toolkit of monitoring techniques that account for case mix and could be implemented using routinely available clinical data. This toolkit could enable quality of care comparisons between hospitals to facilitate the sharing of improved practices. DESIGN: Prospective study over 4 years. SETTING AND PATIENTS: Babies admitted to 2 tertiary London NICUs. METHODS: We derived expected numbers of BSI episodes using a Poisson regression risk model adjusting for variations in birth weight, transfers to the NICU from other hospitals, postnatal age, and days spent at each National Health Service level of care. We compared observed and expected numbers of BSI episodes using 2 monitoring techniques: standardized infection ratios (SIRs) and the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT). RESULTS: Using the SIR method, observed BSI incidence increased over expected incidence in 2002 at both NICUs, but this increase did not reach statistical significance at the 1% level. Using the SPRT method, neither unit showed a clinically important increase or decrease, defined as a 30% deviation from expected incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Risk-adjusted BSI monitoring can be performed using routine hospital data. NICUs could use SIRs for an annual look back at infection incidence and SPRTs for prospective, quarterly monitoring. The SIR and the SPRT methods have different strengths, and both could help clinicians improve infection control and patient care in NICUs.