Multicentric validation of a reduced features case-mix set for predicting functional outcome after ischemic stroke in Belgium.

INTRODUCTION: Ischemic stroke is the second cause of death and leading cause of severe disability worldwide. A reduced features set of CT-DRAGON (age, NIHSS on admission and pre-stroke mRS) predicts 90-day functional outcome after stroke in a single center. The current study was designed to validate this adapted CT-DRAGON score in three major Belgian hospitals, in the framework of future case-mix adjustment. METHODS: This retrospective study included stroke patients, treated by thrombolysis, thrombectomy, a combination of both or neither thrombolysis or thrombectomy (conservative treatment) in 2019. Patient characteristics and 90-day mRS were collected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis of 90-day mRS 0-2 vs. 3-6 and 0-5 vs. 6 with the reduced features set was performed. Discriminative performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Thirty-three percent of patients (413/1243) underwent treatment. Majority of strokes was treated conservatively (n = 830, 67%), 18% (n = 225) was treated by thrombolysis, 7% (n = 88) by thrombectomy and 8% (n = 100) by thrombolysis and thrombectomy. Age, NIHSS and pre-stroke mRS were independently associated with 90-day mRS 0-2 (all p ≤ 0.0001, AUROC 0.88). When treatment modality was added in the model, age, NIHSS, pre-stroke mRS and treatment modality were independently associated with 90-day mRS 0-2 (p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0001) AUROC 0.89). Age, NIHSS, pre-stroke mRS and treatment modality were independently associated with 90-day survival (p = 0.0001, p < 0.0001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.008, AUROC 0.86). DISCUSSION: The reduced features set (age, NIHSS and pre-mRS) was independently associated with long-term functional outcome in a Belgian multicentric cohort, making it useful for case-mix adjustments in Belgian stroke centers. Treatment modality was associated with long-term outcome.

Hospital-acquired infections after acute ischaemic stroke and its association with healthcare-related costs and functional outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Acute ischaemic stroke is associated with important mortality, morbidity, and healthcare-related costs. Age, pre-stroke functionality and stroke severity are important contributors to functional outcome. Stroke patients also risk developing infections during hospitalization. We sought to explore possible predictors of post-stroke infections and the relationship of post-stroke infection with healthcare-related costs and functional outcome. METHODS: This single-centre retrospective study included 530 patients treated for ischaemic stroke between January 2017 and February 2019. Antibiotics' administration was used as a proxy for post-stroke infection. Functional outcome at 90 days was assessed by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Total healthcare-related costs were recorded for the index hospital stay. Multivariable analysis for post-stroke infection was done with the independent factors sex, age, pre-stroke mRS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Twenty percent of patients had a post-stroke infection. NIHSS (OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06-1.13, p < 0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.28-3.71, p = 0.0042) were independent predictors for post-stroke infection. Mean total healthcare-related costs were 15,374 euro (SD 19,968; IQR 3,380-18,165), with a mean of 31,061 euro (SD 29,995; IQR 12,584-42,843) in patients with infection, compared to 11,406 euro (SD 13,987; IQR 3,083-12,726) in patients without (p < 0.0001). Median 90-days mRS was 5 (IQR 3-6) in patients with infection versus 1 (IQR 0-3.5) in patients without (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients, admitted for acute ischaemic stroke, stroke severity and diabetes mellitus were identified as the main predictors for post-stroke infection. Hospital-acquired infections were associated with increased costs and worse functional outcome.

Interaction between stroke severity and quality indicators of acute stroke care: a single-center retrospective analysis.

Ischemic stroke leads to substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. Door-to-CT time, door-to-needle time (DNT), and door-to-groin time (DGT) are important quality indicators of stroke care. However, patient characteristics remain important determinants of outcome as well. In this single-center study, we investigated the interaction between these quality indicators and stroke severity regarding long-term functional outcome. All consecutive stroke patients treated at the ZOL stroke center, Genk, Belgium, between 2017 and 2020 were included in this retrospective observational study. Stroke severity was graded as "mild" if National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) was equal to or lower than 8, "moderate" if NIHSS was between 9 and 15, and "severe" if NIHSS was higher than 16. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were collected before and 3 months after stroke. Ordinal regression analysis with correction for patient characteristics of functional outcome was done. A total of 1255 patients were included, of which 84% suffered an ischemic CVA (n = 1052) and 16% a TIA (n = 203). The proportion of patients treated conservatively or with thrombolysis, thrombectomy, or the combination of both differed according to stroke severity (p < 0.0001). Door-to-CT time was longer in mild and moderate stroke (p < 0.0001). Median DNT also differed between stroke categories: 46 (IQR 31-70) min for mild vs. 36 (25-56) min for moderate vs. 30 (21-45) min for severe stroke (p = 0.0002). Median DGT did not differ between stroke severity categories (p = 0.15). NIHSS on admission and pre-stroke mRS were independently associated with mRS at 90 days. Operational performance, reflected in door-to-CT time and DNT, was worse in patients with mild and moderate stroke severity. DNT was also associated with functional outcome in our center, along with pre-stroke mRS, NIHSS on admission and age.

Prediction of Functional Outcome After Acute Ischemic Stroke: Comparison of the CT-DRAGON Score and a Reduced Features Set.

Background and Purpose: The CT-DRAGON score was developed to predict long-term functional outcome after acute stroke in the anterior circulation treated by thrombolysis. Its implementation in clinical practice may be hampered by its plethora of variables. The current study was designed to develop and evaluate an alternative score, as a reduced set of features, derived from the original CT-DRAGON score. Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 564 patients treated for stroke, in the anterior and the posterior circulation. At 90 days, favorable [modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 0-2] and miserable outcome (mRS of 5-6) were predicted by the CT-DRAGON in 427 patients. Bootstrap forests selected the most relevant parameters of the CT-DRAGON, in order to develop a reduced set of features. Discrimination, calibration and misclassification of both models were tested. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the CT-DRAGON was 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for favorable and 0.78 (95% CI 0.72-0.83) for miserable outcome. Misclassification was 29% for favorable and 13.5% for miserable outcome, with a 100% specificity for the latter. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), pre-stroke mRS and age were identified as the strongest contributors to favorable and miserable outcome and named the reduced features set. While CT-DRAGON was only available in 323 patients (57%), the reduced features set could be calculated in 515 patients (91%) (p < 0.001). Misclassification was 25.8% for favorable and 14.4% for miserable outcome, with a 97% specificity for miserable outcome. The reduced features set had better discriminative power than CT-DRAGON for both outcomes (both p < 0.005), with an AUROC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.87) for favorable and miserable outcome, respectively. Conclusions: The CT-DRAGON score revealed acceptable discrimination in our cohort of both anterior and posterior circulation strokes, receiving all treatment modalities. The reduced features set could be measured in a larger cohort and with better discrimination. However, the reduced features set needs further validation in a prospective, multicentre study. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Identifiers: NCT03355690, NCT04092543.