Wildlife susceptibility to infectious diseases at global scales.

Disease transmission prediction across wildlife is crucial for risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases. Susceptibility of host species to pathogens is influenced by the geographic, environmental, and phylogenetic context of the specific system under study. We used machine learning to analyze how such variables influence pathogen incidence for multihost pathogen assemblages, including one of direct transmission (coronaviruses and bats) and two vector-borne systems (West Nile Virus [WNV] and birds, and malaria and birds). Here we show that this methodology is able to provide reliable global spatial susceptibility predictions for the studied host-pathogen systems, even when using a small amount of incidence information (i.e., [Formula: see text] of information in a database). We found that avian malaria was mostly affected by environmental factors and by an interaction between phylogeny and geography, and WNV susceptibility was mostly influenced by phylogeny and by the interaction between geographic and environmental distances, whereas coronavirus susceptibility was mostly affected by geography. This approach will help to direct surveillance and field efforts providing cost-effective decisions on where to invest limited resources.

Leaf functional traits and ecological niche of Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana in natural forests and plantings as a proxy of climate change.

PREMISE: Functional traits reflect species' responses to environmental variation and the breadth of their ecological niches. Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana have restricted distribution in upper montane cloud forests (1700-2000 m a.s.l.) in Mexico. These species were introduced into plantings at lower elevations (1200-1600 m a.s.l.) that have climates predicted for montane forests in 2050 and 2070. The aim was to relate morphological leaf traits to the ecological niche structure of each species. METHODS: Leaf functional traits (leaf area, specific leaf area [SLA], thickness, and toughness) were analyzed in forests and plantings. Atmospheric circulation models and representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) were used to assess future climate conditions. Trait-niche relationships were analyzed by measuring the Mahalanobis distance (MD) from the forests and the plantings to the ecological niche centroid (ENC). RESULTS: For both species, leaf area and SLA were higher and toughness lower in plantings at lower elevation relative to those in higher-elevation forests, and thickness was similar. Leaf traits varied with distance from sites to the ENC. Forests and plantings have different environmental locations regarding the ENC, but forests are closer (MD 0.34-0.58) than plantings (MD 0.50-0.70) for both species. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation as a proxy for expected future climate conditions influenced the functional traits of both species, and trait patterns related to the structure of their ecological niches were consistent. The use of distances to the ENC is a promising approach to explore variability in species' functional traits and phenotypic responses in optimal versus marginal environmental conditions.

Delimitation and species discovery in the Profundulidae fish family: Using genetic, environmental and morphologic data to address taxonomic uncertainty.

The family Profundulidae includes some one of the most enigmatic freshwater fishes of Mesoamerica: despite many attempts, a robust phylogenetic framework to delimit species is lacking, mainly due to limited morphological variation within the group. The accumulation of molecular data of profundulid fishes has led to advances in the description of new taxa, but relatively less progress has been made estimating evolutionary and phylogenetic relationships for this fish family. Here, we adopt an integrative taxonomy approach including the use of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences, morphometric and ecological data, to test species boundaries in profundulid fishes in the westernmost area of their known distribution range in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico. Using a combination of methods for species discovery and validation based on Bayesian gene tree topologies, our analyses support the delimitation of 15 valid species of profundulid fishes - a combination of previously described species validated by this study, the synonymy of unsupported taxa, and the description of two new species. Using species delimitation methods, examination of phenotypic variation, and ecological niche characterization, we also identify five potentially new lineages which require further evidence to be erected as new species. We demonstrate that the use of an integrative taxonomy approach provides a robust methodology to delimit species in a taxonomically complex group like Profundulidae. Accurate taxonomic and ecological information is crucial for the conservation of these microendemic fishes, as several species are endangered.

Metabolome expression in Eucryphia cordifolia populations: Role of seasonality and ecological niche centrality hypothesis.

The ecological niche centrality hypothesis states that population abundance is determined by the position in the ecological niche, expecting higher abundances towards the center of the niche and lower at the periphery. However, the variations in the conditions that favor the persistence of populations between the center and the periphery of the niche can be a surrogate of stress factors that are reflected in the production of metabolites in plants. In this study we tested if metabolomic similarity and diversity in populations of the tree species Eucryphia cordifolia Cav. vary according to their position with respect to the structure of the ecological niche. We hypothesize that populations growing near the centroid should exhibit lower metabolites diversity than plants growing at the periphery of the niche. The ecological niche of the species was modeled using correlative approaches and bioclimatic variables to define central and peripheral localities from which we chose four populations to obtain their metabolomic information using UHPLC-DAD-QTOF-MS. We observed that populations farther away from the centroid tend to have higher metabolome diversity, thus supporting our expectation of the niche centrality hypothesis. Nonetheless, the Shannon index showed a marked variation in metabolome diversity at the seasonal level, with summer and autumn being the periods with higher metabolite diversity compared to winter and spring. We conclude that both the environmental variation throughout the year in combination with the structure of the ecological niche are relevant to understand the variation in expression of metabolites in plants.

Seasonal and elevational variation in thermal ecology of the crevice-dwelling knob-scaled lizard Xenosaurus fractus from central-eastern Mexico.

There is strong covariation between the thermal physiology of ectothermic animals and their thermal environment. Spatial and temporal differences in the thermal environment across a species' range may result in changes in thermal preferences between populations of that species. Alternatively, thermoregulatory-based microhabitat selection can allow individuals to maintain similar body temperatures across a broad thermal gradient. Which strategy a species adopts is often dependent on taxon-specific levels of physiological conservatism or ecological context. Identifying which strategies species use in response to spatial and temporal variation in environmental temperatures requires empirical evidence, which then can support predictions as to how a species might respond to a changing climate. Here we present findings of our analyses of the thermal quality, thermoregulatory accuracy and efficiency for the lizard, Xenosaurus fractus, across an elevation-thermal gradient and over the temporal thermal variation associated with seasonal changes. Xenosaurus fractus is a strict crevice-dweller, a habitat that can buffer this lizard from extreme temperatures and is a thermal conformer (body temperatures reflect air and substrate temperatures). We found populations of this species differed in their thermal preferences along an elevation gradient and between seasons. Specifically, we found that habitat thermal quality, thermoregulatory accuracy and efficiency (all measures of how well the lizards' body temperatures compared to their preferred body temperatures) varied along thermal gradients and with season. Our findings indicate that this species has adapted to local conditions and shows seasonal flexibility in those spatial adaptations. Along with their strict crevice-dwelling habitat, these adaptations may provide some protection against a warming climate.

Annual precipitation predicts the phylogenetic signal in bat-fruit interaction networks across the Neotropics.

Closely related species tend to be more similar than randomly selected species from the same phylogenetic tree. This pattern, known as a phylogenetic signal, has been extensively studied for intrinsic (e.g. morphology), as well as extrinsic (e.g. climatic preferences), properties but less so for ecological interactions. Phylogenetic signals of species interactions (i.e. resource use) can vary across time and space, but the causes behind such variations across broader spatial extents remain elusive. Here, we evaluated how current and historical climates influence phylogenetic signals of bat-fruit interaction networks across the Neotropics. We performed a model selection relating the phylogenetic signals of each trophic level (bats and plants) with a set of current and historical climatic factors deemed ecologically important in shaping biotic interactions. Bat and plant phylogenetic signals in bat-fruit interaction networks varied little with climatic factors, although bat phylogenetic signals positively covaried with annual precipitation. These findings indicated that water availability could increase resource availability, favouring higher niche partitioning of trophic resources among bat species and hence bat phylogenetic signals across bat-fruit interaction networks. Overall, our study advances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of bat-fruit interactions by highlighting the association of current climatic factors with phylogenetic patterns of biotic interactions.

Modeling the impact of temperature on the population abundance of the ambrosia beetle Xyleborus affinis (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under laboratory-reared conditions.

Modeling the impact of temperature on each life stage of a beetle population represents a continuing challenge. This study evaluates the effects of five temperature treatments (20, 23, 26, 29 and 32 °C) on population abundance and timing of a colony of ambrosia beetles Xyleborus affinis reared under laboratory conditions and use this data to develop demographic and phenological models. Abundances at each life stage (eggs, larvae, pupae and adult) were examined through periodic destructive sampling; given that it was not possible to track individuals. To assess the effects of temperature on oviposition, development and survival rates we developed a novel estimation strategy based on cohorts, which does not require individual developmental data. Since oviposition was entirely unwitnessed, we assessed competing empirical ovipositional models. Rates of development were computed using a modal rate curve for each life stage, and rates were projected to cohorts in life stages assuming log-normal developmental variance. Temperature-driven survival rates were assumed to be logistic with a quadratic exponent to capture modal temperature dependence. Parameters were estimated simultaneously using minimum negative log posterior likelihood, assuming Poisson distribution of observations and using priors to inform unobserved developmental rates and enforce mechanistic constraints on oviposition models. A parabolic function best described oviposition rate. Optimal developmental temperatures were 30.5 °C, 29 °C and 27.5 °C, with maximum developmental rates of 0.26/day, 0.12/day and 0.23/day for eggs, larvae and pupae, respectively. The survival rates in the range 20-29 °C were equal to 1 in the eggs-to-larvae transition, from 0.72 to 0.35 in larvae-to-pupae transition, and from 0.2 to 0.89 in pupae-to-adults transition. This procedure effectively characterized the direct thermal effects on development and survival of each life stage in the X. affinis under laboratory conditions and would be suitable for estimating temperature dependence for other species in which individual observations are not possible.

Phylogenetic relationships and ecological niche conservatism in killifish (Profundulidae) in Mesoamerica.

The family Profundulidae is a group of small-sized fish species distributed between southern Mexico and Honduras, where they are frequently the only fish representatives at higher elevations in the basins where they occur. We characterized their ecological niche using different methods and metrics drawn from niche modelling and by re-examining phylogenetic relationships of a recently published molecular phylogeny of this family to gain a better understanding of its biogeographic and evolutionary history. We assessed both lines of evidence from the perspective of niche conservatism to set a foundation for discussing hypotheses about the processes underlying the distribution and evolution of the group. In fish clades where the species composition is not clear, we examined whether niche classification could be informative to discriminate groups geographically and ecologically consistent with any of the different hypotheses of valid species. The characterization of the ecological niche was carried out using the Maxent algorithm under different parameterizations and the projection of the presence on the main components of the most relevant environmental coverage, and the niche comparison was calculated with two indices (D and I), both in environmental space and in that projected geographically. With the molecular data, a species tree was generated using the *BEAST method. The comparison of these data was calculated with an age-overlap correlation test. Based on the molecular phylogeny and on niche overlap analyses, we uncovered strong evidence to support the idea that ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species. The correlation analysis for genetic distance and niche overlap was not significant (P > 0.05). In clades with taxonomic conflicts, we only identified Profundulus oaxacae as a geographically and ecologically distinct group from P. punctatus. All the evidence considered leads us to propose that Profundulidae do not show evidence of niche conservatism and that there are reasons to consider P. oaxacae as a valid species. Our study suggests that niche divergence is a driving evolutionary force that caused the diversification and speciation processes of the Profundulidae, along with the geological and climatic events that promoted the expansion or contraction of suitable environments.

Sex determination systems in reptiles are related to ambient temperature but not to the level of climatic fluctuation.

BACKGROUND: Vertebrates exhibit diverse sex determination systems and reptiles stand out by having highly variable sex determinations that include temperature-dependent and genotypic sex determination (TSD and GSD, respectively). Theory predicts that populations living in either highly variable or cold climatic conditions should evolve genotypic sex determination to buffer the populations from extreme sex ratios, yet these fundamental predictions have not been tested across a wide range of taxa. RESULTS: Here, we use phylogenetic analyses of 213 reptile species representing 38 families (TSD = 101 species, GSD = 112 species) and climatic data to compare breeding environments between reptiles with GSD versus TSD. We show that GSD and TSD are confronted with the same level of climatic fluctuation during breeding seasons. However, TSD reptiles are significantly associated with warmer climates. We found a strong selection on the breeding season length that minimises exposure to cold and fluctuating climate. Phylogenetic path analyses comparing competing evolutionary hypotheses support that transitions in sex determination systems influenced the ambient temperature at which the species reproduces and nests. In turn, this interaction affects other variables such as the duration of the breeding season and life-history traits. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our results challenge long-standing hypotheses about the association between sex determination and climate variability. We also show that ambient temperature is important during breeding seasons and it helps explain the effects of sex determination systems on the geographic distribution of extant reptile species.

Species-level drivers of mammalian ectoparasite faunas.

Traditionally, most studies have described the organization of host-parasite interaction networks by considering only few host groups at limited geographical extents. However, host-parasite relationships are merged within different taxonomic groups and factors shaping these interactions likely differ between host and parasite groups, making group-level differences important to better understand the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of these interactive communities. Here we used a dataset of 629 ectoparasite species and 251 species of terrestrial mammals, comprising 10 orders distributed across the Nearctic and Neotropical regions of Mexico to assess the species-level drivers of mammalian ectoparasite faunas. Specifically, we evaluated whether body weight, geographical range size and within-range mammal species richness (i.e. diversity field) predict mammal ectoparasite species richness (i.e. degree centrality) and their closeness centrality within the mammal-ectoparasite network. In addition, we also tested if the observed patterns differ among mammal orders and if taxonomic closely related host mammals could more likely share the same set of ectoparasites. We found that ectoparasite species richness of small mammals (mainly rodents) with large proportional range sizes was high compared to large-bodied mammals, whereas the diversity field of mammals had no predictive value (except for bats). We also observed that taxonomic proximity was a main determinant of the probability to share ectoparasite species. Specifically, the probability to share ectoparasites in congeneric species reached up to 90% and decreased exponentially as the taxonomic distance increased. Further, we also detected that some ectoparasites are generalists and capable to infect mammalian species across different orders and that rodents have a remarkable role in the network structure, being closely connected to many other taxa. Hence, because many rodent species have synanthropic habits they could act as undesired reservoirs of disease agents for humans and urban animals. Considering the reported worldwide phenomenon of the proliferation of rodents accompanying the demographic decrease or even local extinction of large-bodied mammal species, these organisms may already be an increasing health threat in many regions of the world.

The roles of history and ecology in chloroplast phylogeographic patterns of the bird-dispersed plant parasite Phoradendron californicum (Viscaceae) in the Sonoran Desert.

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF THE STUDY: A recurrent explanation for phylogeographic discontinuities in the Baja California Peninsula and the Sonoran Desert Region has been the association of vicariant events with Pliocene and Pleistocene seaway breaks. Nevertheless, despite its relevance for plant dispersal, other explanations such as ecological and paleoclimatic factors have received little attention. Here, we analyzed the role of several of these factors to describe the phylogeographic patterns of the desert mistletoe, Phoradendron californicum.• METHODS: Using noncoding chloroplast regions, we assess the marginal probability of 19 a priori hypotheses related to geological and ecological factors to predict the cpDNA variation in P. californicum using a Bayesian coalescent framework. Complementarily, we used the macrofossil record and niche model projections on Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions for hosts, mistletoe, and a bird specialist to interpret phylogeographic patterns.• KEY RESULTS: Genealogical reconstructions revealed five clades, which suggest a combination of cryptic divergence, long-distance seed dispersal, and isolating postdivergence events. Bayesian hypothesis test favored a series of Pliocene and Pleistocene geological events related to the formation of the Baja California Peninsula and seaways across the peninsula as the most supported explanation for this genealogical pattern. However, age estimates, niche projections, and fossil records show dynamic host-mistletoe interactions and evidence of host races, indicating that ecological and geological factors have been interacting during the formation and structuring of phylogeographic divergence.• CONCLUSIONS: Variation in cpDNA across the species range results from the interplay of vicariant events, past climatic oscillations, and more dynamic factors related to ecological processes at finer temporal and spatial scales.

The relationship among biodiversity, governance, wealth, and scientific capacity at a country level: Disaggregation and prioritization.

At a global level, the relationship between biodiversity importance and capacity to manage it is often assumed to be negative, without much differentiation among the more than 200 countries and territories of the world. We examine this relationship using a database including terrestrial biodiversity, wealth and governance indicators for most countries. From these, principal components analysis was used to construct aggregated indicators at global and regional scales. Wealth, governance, and scientific capacity represent different skills and abilities in relation to biodiversity importance. Our results show that the relationship between biodiversity and the different factors is not simple: in most regions wealth and capacity varies positively with biodiversity, while governance vary negatively with biodiversity. However, these trends, to a certain extent, are concentrated in certain groups of nations and outlier countries. We discuss our results in the context of collaboration and joint efforts among biodiversity-rich countries and foreign agencies.

Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling.

Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.

Climatic and soil characteristics account for the genetic structure of the invasive cactus moth Cactoblastis cactorum, in its native range in Argentina.

Background: Knowledge of the physical and environmental conditions that may limit the migration of invasive species is crucial to assess the potential for expansion outside their native ranges. The cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, is native to South America (Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil) and has been introduced and invaded the Caribbean and southern United States, among other regions. In North America there is an ongoing process of range expansion threatening cacti biodiversity of the genus Opuntia and the commercial profits of domesticated Opuntia ficus-indica. Methods: To further understand what influences the distribution and genetic structure of this otherwise important threat to native and managed ecosystems, in the present study we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic analyses to identify potential environmental barriers in the native region of Argentina. Samples were collected on the host with the wider distribution range, O. ficus-indica. Results: Significant genetic structure was detected using 10 nuclear microsatellites and 24 sampling sites. At least six genetic groups delimited by mountain ranges, salt flats and wetlands were mainly located to the west of the Dry Chaco ecoregion. Niche modeling supports that this region has high environmental suitability where the upper soil temperature and humidity, soil carbon content and precipitation were the main environmental factors that explain the presence of the moth. Environmental filters such as the upper soil layer may be critical for pupal survival and consequently for the establishment of populations in new habitats, whereas the presence of available hosts is a necessary conditions for insect survival, upper soil and climatic characteristics will determine the opportunities for a successful establishment.

The expected impacts of sea level on the Mexican Atlantic coast.

The Mexican Atlantic coast is vulnerable to sea level rise due to its low, sandy shorelines with extensive adjacent wetlands. The increasing trends at the regional level are similar to global trends (~3 ± 0.04 mm/year): between 1.8 mm/year in Alvarado, Veracruz, to 3.6 mm/year in Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo. A synthetic model was applied to Mexican Atlantic coast under two sea level rise scenarios for the year 2100. Our objectives were: 1) to identify potentially floodable zones in the face of a sea level rise of one and two meters on the Mexican Atlantic coast with a synthetic model using SRTM and LiDAR topographic data; 2) to determine vegetation and land use affected in the potentially floodable zones; and 3) quantify the vulnerable human population. With topographic data we identified low areas (one and two meters) to assess potentially floodable zones; these were intersected with data layers of vegetation, land use, and human population. Deltaic zones, coastal lagoons and low-lying areas of the Yucatan Peninsula were regions with the largest potentially floodable surface. In the one-meter sea rise scenario, 581,674 ha were identified as potentially floodable, and 896,151 in the two-meter scenario. The most vulnerable vegetation and land use types were wetlands, such as cattail marshes (tulares; ~29 %) and mangroves (~27 %), as well as cultivated grasslands (~6 %). The indirectly affected coastal population could be approximately 5.5 million in these scenarios (~33 %), and the directly affected population could range between 124,000 and 440,000 (~0.72 and 2.55 %, respectively). These results indicate that there will be strong effects in economic, social, and environmental impacts on the Atlantic coast of Mexico in the event of a one- and two-meters sea level rise. This type of work will enable proposal conservation and adaptation strategies for human populations and coastal cities.

Xicotli Data: a project to retrieve plant-bee interactions from citizen science.

Background: Xicotli data is the short name given to the dataset generated within the project framework "Integration of Biodiversity Data for the Management and Conservation of Wild Bee-Plant Interactions in Mexico (2021-2023)", as xicotli is the generic word for a bee in Nahuatl. The team comprised eco-informaticians, ecologists and taxonomists of both native bees and flora. The generated dataset contains so far 4,532 curated records of the plants, which are potential hosts of species of three focal families of bees native to Mexico: Apidae, Halictidae and Megachilidae and morphological and ecological data of the plant-bee interactions. This dataset was integrated and mobilised from citizen observations available at naturalista.mx (iNat), which were compiled through the iNaturalist project. New information: The new information obtained with the Xicotli data project was: Taxonomic information about bee species curated by taxonomists based on the information contained in iNaturalist;Taxonomic identification of the host plants by a botanist from the photos compiled by the Xicotli Data project;Data on the ecomorphological traits of bees and plants based on expert knowledge and literature. All the data were integrated into the Xicotli Data Project via the creation of new "observation fields". The visibility of the information originally contained in iNaturalist was maximized and can be consulted directly on the iNaturalist platform.

Integrating Earth-life systems: a geogenomic approach.

For centuries, scientists have recognized and worked to understand how Earth's mutable landscape and climate shape the distribution and evolution of species. Here, we describe the emerging field of geogenomics, which uses the reciprocal and deep integration of geologic, climatic, and population genomic data to define and test cause-effect relationships between Earth and life at intermediate spatial and temporal scales (i.e., the mesoscale). Technological advances now power the detailed reconstruction of landscape and evolutionary histories, but transdisciplinary collaborations and new quantitative tools are needed to better integrate Earth-life data. Geogenomics can help build a more unified theory and characterize the boundary conditions under which geologic and climatic processes generate new biodiversity, how species' responses differ, and why.

American Mammals Susceptibility to Dengue According to Geographical, Environmental, and Phylogenetic Distances.

Many human emergent and re-emergent diseases have a sylvatic cycle. Yet, little effort has been put into discovering and modeling the wild mammal reservoirs of dengue (DENV), particularly in the Americas. Here, we show a species-level susceptibility prediction to dengue of wild mammals in the Americas as a function of the three most important biodiversity dimensions (ecological, geographical, and phylogenetic spaces), using machine learning protocols. Model predictions showed that different species of bats would be highly susceptible to DENV infections, where susceptibility mostly depended on phylogenetic relationships among hosts and their environmental requirement. Mammal species predicted as highly susceptible coincide with sets of species that have been reported infected in field studies, but it also suggests other species that have not been previously considered or that have been captured in low numbers. Also, the environment (i.e., the distance between the species' optima in bioclimatic dimensions) in combination with geographic and phylogenetic distance is highly relevant in predicting susceptibility to DENV in wild mammals. Our results agree with previous modeling efforts indicating that temperature is an important factor determining DENV transmission, and provide novel insights regarding other relevant factors and the importance of considering wild reservoirs. This modeling framework will aid in the identification of potential DENV reservoirs for future surveillance efforts.

Growth temperature effect on mandibles' ontogeny and sexual dimorphism in the ambrosia beetle Xyleborus affinis (Curculionidae: Scolytinae).

Ambrosia beetles from the genus Xyleborus are important vectors of fungal pathogens in forest and agricultural systems, yet the influence of temperature on their morphological development has been poorly studied. Because host colonization and ambrosial fungi cultivation is mostly restricted to females, it is possible to speculate on strong sexual dimorphism expression in secondary sexual characters and ecological segregation between sexes. Here, we determined the effect of different growing temperatures (17, 23, 26 and 29 °C) on mandible ontogeny of larvae and adult individuals of X. affinis, and sexual dimorphism in adults, in shape and size variation using geometric morphometrics. Mandible shape change showed significant differences in magnitude and direction through larval ontogeny among temperature treatments. Sexual shape and size dimorphism were found in adult mandibles, and the degree of sexual dimorphism was dependent on growth temperature, with a significant effect of the interaction between temperature and sex on mandible shape and size variation. Higher morphological differences were observed at the base of mandibles among temperature treatments in adults and a gradual narrowing trend with temperature increments. These findings could have consequences on feeding performance and fungus cultivation inside colonies, potentially influencing their ability to establish populations in new geographical areas.