Combined Infection Control Interventions Protect Essential Food Workers from Occupational Exposures to SARS-CoV-2 in the Agricultural Environment.

Essential food workers experience elevated risks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection due to prolonged occupational exposures in food production and processing areas, shared transportation (car or bus), and employer-provided shared housing. Our goal was to quantify the daily cumulative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for healthy susceptible produce workers and to evaluate the relative reduction in risk attributable to food industry interventions and vaccination. We simulated daily SARS-CoV-2 exposures of indoor and outdoor produce workers through six linked quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model scenarios. For each scenario, the infectious viral dose emitted by a symptomatic worker was calculated across aerosol, droplet, and fomite-mediated transmission pathways. Standard industry interventions (2-m physical distancing, handwashing, surface disinfection, universal masking, ventilation) were simulated to assess relative risk reductions from baseline risk (no interventions, 1-m distance). Implementation of industry interventions reduced an indoor worker's relative infection risk by 98.0% (0.020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.005 to 0.104) from baseline risk (1.00; 95% UI, 0.995 to 1.00) and an outdoor worker's relative infection risk by 94.5% (0.027; 95% UI, 0.013 to 0.055) from baseline risk (0.487; 95% UI, 0.257 to 0.825). Integrating these interventions with two-dose mRNA vaccinations (86 to 99% efficacy), representing a worker's protective immunity to infection, reduced the relative infection risk from baseline for indoor workers by 99.9% (0.001; 95% UI, 0.0002 to 0.005) and outdoor workers by 99.6% (0.002; 95% UI, 0.0003 to 0.005). Consistent implementation of combined industry interventions, paired with vaccination, effectively mitigates the elevated risks from occupationally acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection faced by produce workers. IMPORTANCE This is the first study to estimate the daily risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across a variety of indoor and outdoor environmental settings relevant to food workers (e.g., shared transportation [car or bus], enclosed produce processing facility and accompanying breakroom, outdoor produce harvesting field, shared housing facility) through a linked quantitative microbial risk assessment framework. Our model has demonstrated that the elevated daily SARS-CoV-2 infection risk experienced by indoor and outdoor produce workers can be reduced below 1% when vaccinations (optimal vaccine efficacy, 86 to 99%) are implemented with recommended infection control strategies (e.g., handwashing, surface disinfection, universal masking, physical distancing, and increased ventilation). Our novel findings provide scenario-specific infection risk estimates that can be utilized by food industry managers to target high-risk scenarios with effective infection mitigation strategies, which was informed through more realistic and context-driven modeling estimates of the infection risk faced by essential food workers daily. Bundled interventions, particularly if they include vaccination, yield significant reductions (>99%) in daily SARS-CoV-2 infection risk for essential food workers in enclosed and open-air environments.

Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. METHODS: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. RESULTS: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. CONCLUSIONS: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

Characterizing superspreading events and age-specific infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA.

It is imperative to advance our understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 such as age-specific infectiousness and superspreading. To this end, it is important to exploit multiple data streams that are becoming abundantly available during the pandemic. In this paper, we formulate an individual-level spatiotemporal mechanistic framework to integrate individual surveillance data with geolocation data and aggregate mobility data, enabling a more granular understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze reported cases, between March and early May 2020, in five (urban and rural) counties in the state of Georgia. First, our results show that the reproductive number reduced to below one in about 2 wk after the shelter-in-place order. Superspreading appears to be widespread across space and time, and it may have a particularly important role in driving the outbreak in rural areas and an increasing importance toward later stages of outbreaks in both urban and rural settings. Overall, about 2% of cases were directly responsible for 20% of all infections. We estimate that the infected nonelderly cases (<60 y) may be 2.78 [2.10, 4.22] times more infectious than the elderly, and the former tend to be the main driver of superspreading. Our results improve our understanding of the natural history and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. More importantly, we reveal the roles of age-specific infectiousness and characterize systematic variations and associated risk factors of superspreading. These have important implications for the planning of relaxing social distancing and, more generally, designing optimal control measures.

Assessing the Cost-Utility of Universal Hepatitis B Vaccination Among Adults.

BACKGROUND: Although effective against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis B (HepB) vaccination is only recommended for infants, children, and adults at higher risk. We conducted an economic evaluation of universal HepB vaccination among US adults. METHODS: Using a decision analytic model with Markov disease progression, we compared current vaccination recommendations (baseline) with either 3-dose or 2-dose universal HepB vaccination (intervention strategies). In simulated modeling of 1 million adults distributed by age and risk groups, we quantified health benefits (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) and costs for each strategy. Multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analyses identified key inputs. All costs reported in 2019 US dollars. RESULTS: With incremental base-case vaccination coverage up to 50% among persons at lower risk and 0% increment among persons at higher risk, each of 2 intervention strategies averted nearly one-quarter of acute HBV infections (3-dose strategy, 24.8%; 2-dose strategy, 24.6%). Societal incremental cost per QALY gained of $152 722 (interquartile range, $119 113-$235 086) and $155 429 (interquartile range, $120 302-$242 226) were estimated for 3-dose and 2-dose strategies, respectively. Risk of acute HBV infection showed the strongest influence. CONCLUSIONS: Universal adult vaccination against HBV may be an appropriate strategy for reducing HBV incidence and improving resulting health outcomes.

County-Level Variation in Hepatitis C Virus Mortality and Trends in the United States, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since 2013, the national hepatitis C virus (HCV) death rate has steadily declined, but this decline has not been quantified or described on a local level. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We estimated county-level HCV death rates and assessed trends in HCV mortality from 2005 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017. We used mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and used a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized HCV death rates from 2005 through 2017 for 3,115 U.S. counties. Additionally, we estimated county-level, age-standardized rates for persons <40 and 40+ years of age. We used log-linear regression models to estimate the average annual percent change in HCV mortality during periods of interest and compared county-level trends with national trends. Nationally, the age-adjusted HCV death rate peaked in 2013 at 5.20 HCV deaths per 100,000 persons (95% credible interval [CI], 5.12, 5.26) before decreasing to 4.34 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 4.28, 4.41) in 2017 (average annual percent change = -4.69; 95% CI, -5.01, -4.33). County-level rates revealed heterogeneity in HCV mortality (2017 median rate = 3.6; interdecile range, 2.19, 6.77), with the highest rates being concentrated in the West, Southwest, Appalachia, and northern Florida. Between 2013 and 2017, HCV mortality decreased in 80.0% (n = 2,274) of all U.S. counties with a reliable trend estimate, with 25.8% (n = 803) of all counties experiencing a decrease larger than the national decline. CONCLUSIONS: Although many counties have experienced a shift in HCV mortality trends since 2013, the magnitude and composition of that shift have varied by place. These data provide a better understanding of geographic differences in HCV mortality and can be used by local jurisdictions to evaluate HCV mortality in their areas relative to surrounding areas and the nation.

Controlling risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers of enclosed food manufacturing facilities.

The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic poses significant health risks to workers who are essential to maintaining the food supply chain. Using a quantitative risk assessment model, this study characterized the impact of risk reduction strategies for controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission (droplet, aerosol, fomite-mediated) among front-line workers in a representative indoor fresh fruit and vegetable manufacturing facility. We simulated: 1) individual and cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infection risks from close contact (droplet and aerosols at 1-3 m), aerosol, and fomite-mediated exposures to a susceptible worker following exposure to an infected worker during an 8 h-shift; and 2) the relative reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection risk attributed to infection control interventions (physical distancing, mask use, ventilation, surface disinfection, hand hygiene, vaccination). Without mitigation measures, the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk was largest for close contact (droplet and aerosol) at 1 m (0.96, 5th - 95th percentile: 0.67-1.0). In comparison, risk associated with fomite (0.26, 5th - 95th percentile: 0.10-0.56) or aerosol exposure alone (0.05, 5th - 95th percentile: 0.01-0.13) at 1 m distance was substantially lower (73-95%). At 1 m, droplet transmission predominated over aerosol and fomite-mediated transmission, however, this changed by 3 m, with aerosols comprising the majority of the exposure dose. Increasing physical distancing reduced risk by 84% (1-2 m) and 91% (1-3 m). Universal mask use reduced infection risk by 52-88%, depending on mask type. Increasing ventilation (from 0.1 to 2-8 air changes/hour) resulted in risk reductions of 14-54% (1 m) and 55-85% (2 m). Combining these strategies, together with handwashing and surface disinfection, resulted in <1% infection risk. Partial or full vaccination of the susceptible worker resulted in risk reductions of 73-92% (1 m risk range: 0.08-0.26). However, vaccination paired with other interventions (ACH 2, mask use, or distancing) was necessary to achieve infection risks <1%. Current industry SARS-CoV-2 risk reduction strategies, particularly when bundled, provide significant protection to essential food workers.

Decontamination of SARS-CoV-2 from cold-chain food packaging provides no marginal benefit in risk reduction to food workers.

Countries continue to debate the need for decontamination of cold-chain food packaging to reduce possible severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fomite transmission among frontline workers. While laboratory-based studies demonstrate persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, the likelihood of fomite-mediated transmission under real-life conditions is uncertain. Using a quantitative microbial risk assessment model of a frozen food packaging facility, we simulated 1) SARS-CoV-2 fomite-mediated infection risks following worker exposure to contaminated plastic packaging; and 2) reductions in these risks from masking, handwashing, and vaccination. In a frozen food facility without interventions, SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to a susceptible worker from contact with contaminated packaging was 1.5 × 10-3 per 1h-period (5th - 95th percentile: 9.2 × 10-6, 1.2 × 10-2). Standard food industry infection control interventions, handwashing and masking, reduced risk (99.4%) to 8.5 × 10-6 risk per 1h-period (5th - 95th percentile: 2.8 × 10-8, 6.6 × 10-5). Vaccination of the susceptible worker (two doses Pfizer/Moderna, vaccine effectiveness: 86-99%) with handwashing and masking reduced risk to 5.2 × 10-7 risk per 1h-period (5th - 95th percentile: 1.8 × 10-9, 5.4 × 10-6). Simulating increased transmissibility of current and future variants (Delta, Omicron), (2-, 10-fold viral shedding) among a fully vaccinated workforce, handwashing and masking continued to mitigate risk (1.4 × 10-6 - 8.8 × 10-6 risk per 1h-period). Additional decontamination of frozen food plastic packaging reduced infection risks to 1.2 × 10-8 risk per 1h-period (5th - 95th percentile: 1.9 × 10-11, 9.5 × 10-8). Given that standard infection control interventions reduced risks well below 1 × 10-4 (World Health Organization water quality risk thresholds), additional packaging decontamination suggest no marginal benefit in risk reduction. Consequences of this decontamination may include increased chemical exposures to workers, food quality and hazard risks to consumers, and unnecessary added costs to governments and the global food industry.

A Retrospective Test-Negative Case-Control Study to Evaluate Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Hospitalizations in Children.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the primary strategy to reduce influenza burden. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary annually depending on circulating strains. METHODS: We used a test-negative case-control study design to estimate influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations among children (aged 6 months-17 years) across 5 influenza seasons in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2012-2013 to 2016-2017. Influenza-positive cases were randomly matched to test-negative controls based on age and influenza season in a 1:1 ratio. We used logistic regression models to compare odds ratios (ORs) of vaccination in cases to controls. We calculated VE as [100% × (1 - adjusted OR)] and computed 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around the estimates. RESULTS: We identified 14 596 hospitalizations of children who were tested for influenza using the multiplex respiratory molecular panel; influenza infection was detected in 1017 (7.0%). After exclusions, we included 512 influenza-positive cases and 512 influenza-negative controls. The median age was 5.9 years (interquartile range, 2.7-10.3), 497 (48.5%) were female, 567 (55.4%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 654 (63.9%) children were unvaccinated. Influenza A accounted for 370 (72.3%) of 512 cases and predominated during all 5 seasons. The adjusted VE against influenza-related hospitalizations during 2012-2013 to 2016-2017 was 51.3% (95% CI, 34.8% to 63.6%) and varied by season. Influenza VE was 54.7% (95% CI, 37.4% to 67.3%) for influenza A and 37.1% (95% CI, 2.3% to 59.5%) for influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination decreased the risk of influenza-related pediatric hospitalizations by >50% across 5 influenza seasons.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Georgia, USA, February 1-July 13, 2020.

The serial interval and effective reproduction number for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are heterogenous, varying by demographic characteristics, region, and period. During February 1-July 13, 2020, we identified 4,080 transmission pairs in Georgia, USA, by using contact tracing information from COVID-19 cases reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health. We examined how various transmission characteristics were affected by symptoms, demographics, and period (during shelter-in-place and after subsequent reopening) and estimated the time course of reproduction numbers for all 159 Georgia counties. Transmission varied by time and place but also by persons' sex and race. The mean serial interval decreased from 5.97 days in February-April to 4.40 days in June-July. Younger adults (20-50 years of age) were involved in most transmission events occurring during or after reopening. The shelter-in-place period was not long enough to prevent sustained virus transmission in densely populated urban areas connected by major transportation links.

Population-Level Human Secretor Status Is Associated With Genogroup 2 Type 4 Norovirus Predominance.

BACKGROUND: Noroviruses are a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis. Genogroup 2 type 4 (GII.4) has been the dominant norovirus genotype worldwide since its emergence in the mid-1990s. Individuals with a functional fucosyltransferase-2 gene, known as secretors, have increased susceptibility to GII.4 noroviruses. We hypothesized that this individual-level trait may drive GII.4 norovirus predominance at the human population level. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review for studies reporting norovirus outbreak or sporadic case genotypes and merged this with data on proportions of human secretor status in various countries from a separate systematic review. We used inverse variance-weighted linear regression to estimate magnitude of the population secretor-GII.4 proportion association. RESULTS: Two hundred nineteen genotype and 112 secretor studies with data from 38 countries were included in the analysis. Study-level GII.4 proportion among all noroviruses ranged from 0% to 100%. Country secretor proportion ranged from 43.8% to 93.9%. We observed a 0.69% (95% confidence interval, 0.19-1.18) increase in GII.4 proportion for each percentage increase in human secretor proportion, controlling for Human Development Index. CONCLUSIONS: Norovirus evolution and diversity may be driven by local population human host genetics. Our results may have vaccine development implications including whether specific antigenic formulations would be required for different populations.

Understanding the Importance of Contact Heterogeneity and Variable Infectiousness in the Dynamics of a Large Norovirus Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Large norovirus (NoV) outbreaks are explosive in nature and vary widely in final size and duration, suggesting that superspreading combined with heterogeneous contact may explain these dynamics. Modeling tools that can capture heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact are important for NoV outbreak prevention and control, yet they remain limited. METHODS: Data from a large NoV outbreak at a Dutch scout jamboree, which resulted in illness among 326 (of 4500 total) individuals from 7 separate camps, were used to examine the contributions of individual variation in infectiousness and clustered contact patterns to the transmission dynamics. A Bayesian hierarchical model of heterogeneous, clustered outbreak transmission was applied to represent (1) between-individual heterogeneity in infectiousness and (2) heterogeneous patterns of contact. RESULTS: We found wide heterogeneity in infectiousness across individuals, suggestive of superspreading. Nearly 50% of individual infectiousness was concentrated in the individual's subcamp of residence, with the remainder distributed over other subcamps. This suggests a source-and-sink dynamic in which subcamps with greater average infectiousness fed cases to those with a lower transmission rate. Although the per capita transmission rate within camps was significantly greater than that between camps, the large pool of susceptible individuals across camps enabled similar numbers of secondary cases generated between versus within camps. CONCLUSIONS: The consideration of clustered transmission and heterogeneous infectiousness is important for understanding NoV transmission dynamics. Models including these mechanisms may be useful for providing early warning and guiding outbreak response.

Trends in Incidence of Norovirus-associated Acute Gastroenteritis in 4 Veterans Affairs Medical Center Populations in the United States, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus is an important cause of epidemic acute gastroenteritis (AGE), yet the burden of endemic disease in adults has not been well documented. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of outpatient and community-acquired inpatient norovirus AGE at 4 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (VAMC) (Atlanta, Georgia; Bronx, New York; Houston, Texas; and Los Angeles, California) and examined trends over 4 surveillance years. METHODS: From November 2011 to September 2015, stool specimens collected within 7 days of AGE symptom onset for clinician-requested diagnostic testing were tested for norovirus, and positive samples were genotyped. Incidence was calculated by multiplying norovirus prevalence among tested specimens by AGE-coded outpatient encounters and inpatient discharges, and dividing by the number of unique patients served. RESULTS: Of 1603 stool specimens, 6% tested were positive for norovirus; GII.4 viruses (GII.4 New Orleans [17%] and GII.4 Sydney [47%]) were the most common genotypes. Overall prevalence and outpatient and inpatient community-acquired incidence followed a seasonal pattern, with higher median rates during November-April (9.2%, 376/100 000, and 45/100 000, respectively) compared to May-October (3.0%, 131/100 000, and 13/100 000, respectively). An alternate-year pattern was also detected, with highest peak prevalence and outpatient and inpatient community-acquired norovirus incidence rates in the first and third years of surveillance (14%-25%, 349-613/100 000, and 43-46/100 000, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This multiyear analysis of laboratory-confirmed AGE surveillance from 4 VAMCs demonstrates dynamic intra- and interannual variability in prevalence and incidence of outpatient and inpatient community-acquired norovirus in US Veterans, highlighting the burden of norovirus disease in this adult population.

Characterizing Norovirus Transmission from Outbreak Data, United States.

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in the United States. We estimated the basic (R0) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers for 7,094 norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) during 2009-2017 and used regression models to assess whether transmission varied by outbreak setting. The median R0 was 2.75 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.38-3.65), and median Re was 1.29 (IQR 1.12-1.74). Long-term care and assisted living facilities had an R0 of 3.35 (95% CI 3.26-3.45), but R0 did not differ substantially for outbreaks in other settings, except for outbreaks in schools, colleges, and universities, which had an R0 of 2.92 (95% CI 2.82-3.03). Seasonally, R0 was lowest (3.11 [95% CI 2.97-3.25]) in summer and peaked in fall and winter. Overall, we saw little variability in transmission across different outbreaks settings in the United States.

The Population-Level Impacts of Excluding Norovirus-Infected Food Workers From the Workplace: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne disease in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration recommends that food workers infected with norovirus be excluded from the workplace while symptomatic and for 48 hours after their symptoms subside. Compliance with this recommendation is not ideal, and the population-level impacts of changes in food-worker compliance have yet to be quantified. We aimed to assess the population impacts of varying degrees of compliance with the current recommendation through the use of a compartmental model. We modeled the number and proportion of symptomatic norovirus cases averted annually in the US population (using data from 1983-2014) in specific age groups (children aged <5 years, children aged 5-17 years, adults aged 18-64 years, and adults aged ≥65 years) under various scenarios of food-worker exclusion (i.e., proportion compliant and days of postsymptomatic exclusion) in comparison with a referent scenario which assumed that 66.6¯% of norovirus-symptomatic food workers and 0% of postsymptomatic food workers were excluded from work. Overall, we estimated that 6.0 million cases of norovirus have already been avoided annually under the referent scenario and that 6.7 million (28%) more cases might be avoided through 100% compliance with the current recommendations. Substantial population-level benefits were predicted from improved compliance in exclusion of norovirus-infected food workers from the workplace-benefits that may be realized through policies or programs incentivizing self-exclusion.

Estimating the Burden of Medically Attended Norovirus Gastroenteritis: Modeling Linked Primary Care and Hospitalization Datasets.

Background: Norovirus is the leading cause of community-acquired and nosocomial acute gastroenteritis. Routine testing for norovirus is seldom undertaken, and diagnosis is mainly based on presenting symptoms. This makes understanding the burden of medically attended norovirus-attributable gastroenteritis (MA-NGE) and targeting care and prevention strategies challenging. Methods: We used linked population-based healthcare datasets (Clinical Practice Research Datalink General Practice OnLine Database linked with Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care) to model the incidence of MA-NGE associated with primary care consultations or hospitalizations according to age groups in England in the period July 2007-June 2013. Results: Mean annual incidence rates of MA-NGE were 4.9/1000 person-years and 0.7/1000 person-years for episodes involving primary care or hospitalizations, respectively. Incidence rates were highest in children aged <5 years: 34.0 consultations/1000 person-years and 3.3 hospitalizations/1000 person-years. Medically attended norovirus-attributable gastroenteritis hospitalization rates were second highest in adults aged >65 years (1.7/1000 person-years). Conclusions: In this particular study, the burden of MA-NGE estimated from healthcare datasets was higher than previously estimated in small cohort studies in England. Routinely collected primary care and hospitalization datasets are useful resources to estimate and monitor the burden of MA-NGE in a population over time.

Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination in the United States, 2001-2014.

We assessed the status of measles elimination in the United States using outbreak notification data. Measles transmissibility was assessed by estimation of the reproduction number, R, the average number of secondary cases per infection, using 4 methods; elimination requires maintaining R at <1. Method 1 estimates R as 1 minus the proportion of cases that are imported. Methods 2 and 3 estimate R by fitting a model of the spread of infection to data on the sizes and generations of chains of transmission, respectively. Method 4 assesses transmissibility before public health interventions, by estimating R for the case with the earliest symptom onset in each cluster (Rindex). During 2001-2014, R and Rindex estimates obtained using methods 1-4 were 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 0.76), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.70), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49), and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.69), respectively. Year-to-year variability in the values of R and Rindex and an increase in transmissibility in recent years were noted with all methods. Elimination of endemic measles transmission is maintained in the United States. A suggested increase in measles transmissibility since elimination warrants continued monitoring and emphasizes the importance of high measles vaccination coverage throughout the population.

Cost-effectiveness of Ward Closure to Control Outbreaks of Norovirus Infection in United Kingdom National Health Service Hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus is the most common cause of outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis in National Health Service hospitals in the United Kingdom. Wards (units) are often closed to new admissions to stop the spread of the virus, but there is limited evidence describing the cost-effectiveness of ward closure. METHODS: An economic analysis based on the results from a large, prospective, active-surveillance study of gastroenteritis outbreaks in hospitals and from an epidemic simulation study compared alternative ward closure options evaluated at different time points since first infection, assuming different efficacies of ward closure. RESULTS: A total of 232 gastroenteritis outbreaks occurring in 14 hospitals over a 1-year period were analyzed. The risk of a new outbreak in a hospital is significantly associated with the number of admission, general medical, and long-stay wards that are concurrently affected but is less affected by the level of community transmission. Ward closure leads to higher costs but reduces the number of new outbreaks by 6%-56% and the number of clinical cases by 1%-55%, depending on the efficacy of the intervention. The incremental cost per outbreak averted varies from £10 000 ($14 000) to £306 000 ($428 000), and the cost per case averted varies from £500 ($700) to £61 000 ($85 000). The cost-effectiveness of ward closure decreases as the efficacy of the intervention increases, and the cost-effectiveness increases with the timing of the intervention. The efficacy of ward closure is critical from a cost-effectiveness perspective. CONCLUSIONS: Ward closure may be cost-effective, particularly if targeted to high-throughput units.

Noninterference of Rotavirus Vaccine With Measles-Rubella Vaccine at 9 Months of Age and Improvements in Antirotavirus Immunity: A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: The burden of rotavirus morbidity and mortality is high in children aged <5 years in developing countries, and evaluations indicate waning protection from rotavirus immunization in the second year. An additional dose of rotavirus vaccine may enhance the immune response and lengthen the period of protection against disease, but coadministration of this dose should not interfere with immune responses to concurrently given vaccines. METHODS: A total of 480 9-month-old participants from Matlab, Bangladesh, were enrolled in a study with a primary objective to establish noninferiority of concomitant administration of measles-rubella vaccine (MR) and a third dose of human rotavirus vaccine (HRV; MR + HRV), compared with MR given alone. Secondary objectives included noninferiority of rubella antibody seroconversion and evaluating rotavirus IgA/IgG seroresponses in MR + HRV recipients. RESULTS: Two months after vaccination, 75.3% and 74.3% of MR + HRV and MR recipients, respectively, had seroprotective levels of measles virus antibodies; 100.0% and 99.6%, respectively, showed anti-rubella virus immunoglobulin G (IgG) seroprotection. In the MR + HRV group, antirotavirus immunoglobulin A and IgG seropositivity frequencies before vaccination (52.7% and 66.3%, respectively) increased to 69.6% and 88.3% after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine-induced measles and rubella antibody responses are not negatively affected by concomitant administration of HRV. The HRV dose increases antirotavirus serum antibody titers and the proportion of infants with detectable antirotavirus antibody. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01700621.

Interference of Monovalent, Bivalent, and Trivalent Oral Poliovirus Vaccines on Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccine Immunogenicity in Rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is known to interfere with monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) immunogenicity. The interference caused by bivalent and monovalent OPV formulations, which will be increasingly used globally in coming years, has not been examined. We conducted a post hoc analysis to assess the effect of coadministration of different OPV formulations on RV1 immunogenicity. METHODS: Healthy infants in Matlab, Bangladesh, were randomized to receive 3 doses of monovalent OPV type 1 or bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 at either 6, 8, and 10 or 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age or trivalent OPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. All infants received 2 doses of RV1 at about 6 and 10 weeks of age. Concomitant administration was defined as RV1 and OPV given on the same day; staggered administration as RV1 and OPV given ≥1 day apart. Rotavirus seroconversion was defined as a 4-fold rise in immunoglobulin A titer from before the first RV1 dose to ≥3 weeks after the second RV1 dose. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in baseline RV1 immunogenicity among the 409 infants included in the final analysis. Infants who received RV1 and OPV concomitantly, regardless of OPV formulation, were less likely to seroconvert (47%; 95% confidence interval, 39%-54%) than those who received both vaccines staggered ≥1 day (63%; 57%-70%; P < .001). For staggered administration, we found no evidence that the interval between RV1 and OPV administration affected RV1 immunogenicity. CONCLUSIONS: Coadministration of monovalent, bivalent, or trivalent OPV seems to lower RV1 immunogenicity. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01633216.