Scientific impact in a changing world.

Measuring scientific success has traditionally involved numbers and statistics. However, due to an increasingly uncertain world, more than ever we need to measure the effect that science has on real-world scenarios. We asked researchers to share their points of view on what scientific impact means to them and how impact matters beyond the numbers.

Path-dependence of the Plio-Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles.

We find strong path dependence in the evolution of the Plio-Pleistocene glaciations using CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model simulations from the mid-Pliocene to modern preindustrial (3 My-0 My BP) driven by a gradual decrease in volcanic carbon dioxide outgassing and regolith removal from basal ice interaction. Path dependence and hysteresis are investigated by alternatively driving the model forward and backward in time. Initiating the model with preindustrial conditions and driving the model backward using time-reversed forcings, the increase in volcanic outgassing back-in-time (BIT) does not generate the high CO2 levels and relatively ice-free conditions of the late Pliocene seen in forward-in-time (FIT) simulations of the same model. This behavior appears to originate from nonlinearities and initial state dependence in the carbon cycle. A transition from low-amplitude sinusoidal obliquity (~41 ky) and precession (~23 ky) driven glacial/interglacial cycles to high-amplitude ~100 ky likely eccentricity-related sawtooth cycles seen between -1.25 My and -0.75 My BP (the Mid-Pleistocene transition or "MPT") in FIT simulations disappears in BIT integrations depending on the details of how the regolith removal process is treated. A transition toward depleted regolith and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels are both required to reproduce the MPT.

Role of atmospheric resonance and land-atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event.

We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest "Heat Dome" event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events.

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium.

Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined "Little Ice Age" (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming.

Postoperative shunt failure following hemispherectomy in pediatric patients with pre-existing hydrocephalus.

OBJECTIVE: The risk of hydrocephalus following hemispherectomy for drug resistant epilepsy (DRE) remains high. Patients with pre-existing hydrocephalus pose a postoperative challenge, as maintaining existing shunt patency is necessary but lacks a clearly defined strategy. This study examines the incidence and predictors of shunt failure in pediatric hemispherectomy patients with pre-existing ventricular shunts. METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review at our center to identify pediatric patients diagnosed with DRE who were treated with ventricular shunt prior to their first hemispherectomy surgery. Demographic and perioperative data were obtained including shunt history, hydrocephalus etiology, epilepsy duration, surgical technique, and postoperative outcomes. Univariate analysis was performed using Fisher's exact test and Pearson correlation, with Bonferroni correction to a = 0.00625 and a = 0.01, respectively. RESULTS: Five of nineteen (26.3%) patients identified with ventriculoperitoneal shunting prior to hemispherectomy experienced postoperative shunt malfunction. All 5 of these patients underwent at least 1 shunt revision prior to hemispherectomy, with a significant association between pre- and post-hemispherectomy shunt revisions. There was no significant association between post-hemispherectomy shunt failure and valve type, intraoperative shunt alteration, postoperative external ventricular drain placement, hemispherectomy revision, lateralization of shunt relative to resection, postoperative complications, or postoperative aseptic meningitis. There was no significant correlation between number of post-hemispherectomy shunt revisions and age at shunt placement, age at hemispherectomy, epilepsy duration, or shunt duration prior to hemispherectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier shunt revision surgery may portend a subsequent need for shunt revision following hemispherectomy. These findings may guide neurosurgeons in counseling patients with pre-existing ventricular shunts prior to hemispherectomy surgery.

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era.

More than two decades ago, my coauthors, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and I published the now iconic "hockey stick" curve. It was a simple graph, derived from large-scale networks of diverse climate proxy ("multiproxy") data such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and lake sediments, that captured the unprecedented nature of the warming taking place today. It became a focal point in the debate over human-caused climate change and what to do about it. Yet, the apparent simplicity of the hockey stick curve betrays the dynamicism and complexity of the climate history of past centuries and how it can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change and its impacts. In this article, I discuss the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the "Common Era," the period of the past two millennia during which the "signal" of human-caused warming has risen dramatically from the background of natural variability.

Transposon mutagenesis identifies cooperating genetic drivers during keratinocyte transformation and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma progression.

The systematic identification of genetic events driving cellular transformation and tumor progression in the absence of a highly recurrent oncogenic driver mutation is a challenge in cutaneous oncology. In cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cuSCC), the high UV-induced mutational burden poses a hurdle to achieve a complete molecular landscape of this disease. Here, we utilized the Sleeping Beauty transposon mutagenesis system to statistically define drivers of keratinocyte transformation and cuSCC progression in vivo in the absence of UV-IR, and identified both known tumor suppressor genes and novel oncogenic drivers of cuSCC. Functional analysis confirms an oncogenic role for the ZMIZ genes, and tumor suppressive roles for KMT2C, CREBBP and NCOA2, in the initiation or progression of human cuSCC. Taken together, our in vivo screen demonstrates an extremely heterogeneous genetic landscape of cuSCC initiation and progression, which can be harnessed to better understand skin oncogenic etiology and prioritize therapeutic candidates.

Adolescent caffeine use and problematic school behavior: A longitudinal analysis of student survey data and teacher observations.

INTRODUCTION: Caffeine is a psychostimulant possessing arousal, motor activation, and reinforcing properties, which is consumed daily by most adolescents aged 12-19 years. Although current understanding of the implications of adolescent caffeine consumption for school behaviors remains incomplete, studies have shown that in addition to acute effects of the drug, in common with other habit-forming psychoactive substances, regular use leads to physical dependence, evidenced by recurring negative withdrawal symptoms. METHODS: Employing two waves of longitudinal data, we tested the prospective association between daily caffeine use and homeroom teacher-observed self-control and problem behavior in a sample of middle-school students in 20 schools in West Virginia in the United States. Caffeine was operationalized with two dichotomized variables, daily consumption of <100 mg, and daily consumption of >100 mg, versus no daily use. Gender, mother's education, family financial status, social support by primary caregiver and adults in school, and school climate, were applied as covariates in linear mixed models. RESULTS: Daily caffeine use of >100 mg was robustly and inversely associated with self-control and positively associated with problem behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Caffeine consumption and associated withdrawal symptoms may be an important factor in problematic school behavior among adolescents. Recent advent of highly concentrated caffeine products (e.g., caffeine "shots") commonly marketed directly at youth, should give rise to concerns including consideration about limiting caffeine consumption among children and youth.

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans.

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth's energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth's climate system. In 2022, the world's oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0-2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the "salty gets saltier-fresh gets fresher" pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Caffeine consumption and onset of alcohol use among early adolescents.

Preventing or delaying the onset of alcohol use among children and youth is an important public health goal. One possible factor in alcohol use onset among early adolescents is caffeine. The aim of this study was to assess the possible contribution of caffeine to the onset of alcohol use during early adolescence. We used data from the Young Mountaineer Health Study Cohort. Survey data were collected from 1349 (response rate: 80.7%) 6th grade students (mean age at baseline 11.5 years) in 20 middle schools in West Virginia during the fall of 2020, and again approximately 6 months later in spring of 2021. We limited our analyses to students reporting never having used any form of alcohol at baseline. Logistic regression was employed in multivariable analyses and both Odds Ratios and Relative Risks reported. At follow-up, almost 14% of participants reported having consumed alcohol at least once and 57% used caffeine of 100 mg + daily. In multivariable analyses we controlled for social and behavioral variables known to impact tobacco use. Caffeine use was operationalized as a three-level factor: no use, <100 mg per day, and 100 + mg per day, with the latter being the approximate equivalent of the minimum of a typical cup of coffee or can of energy drink. Caffeine use of 100 mg + per day was significantly related to alcohol use at 6-months follow-up (OR: 1.79, RR: 1.56, p = .037). We conclude that caffeine consumption among 11-12-year-old adolescents may be a factor in early onset of alcohol use.

Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions.

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year's record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ (1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by 16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.

Resectability, Recurrence, and Risk Stratification of Giant Solitary Fibrous Tumors in the Thoracic Cavity.

BACKGROUND: Solitary fibrous tumors (SFTs) are rare mesenchymal tumors most commonly arising from the pleura in the thoracic cavity. The impact of tumor size on risk of recurrence in thoracic SFTs is not well understood. METHODS: A single institution review was performed on all resected thoracic SFTs (1992-2019) with giant SFT defined as ≥ 15 cm. Clinical information, pathologic characteristics, and long-term survival data were collected, and predictors of recurrence and survival were evaluated with regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: There were 38 thoracic SFTs resected from patients, with the majority of tumors (n = 23, 60.5%) originating from visceral pleura. There were nine (23.7%) giant SFTs with a mean size 20.4 cm (range 17-30 cm). Mean follow-up time was 81.0 months (range 1-261 months), during which 4 of 38 (10.5%) patients experienced a recurrence within the thorax (range 51-178 months). The presence of tumor necrosis (p = 0.021) and ≥ 4 mitoses per high-powered field (p = 0.010) were associated with SFT recurrence on univariate regression. Overall 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year survival was 78.2%, 72.6%, and 42.4%, respectively, and SFT-related mortality occurred in three patients at 83, 180, and 208 months postoperatively. There were no recurrences or SFT-related mortality among patients with giant SFT. CONCLUSION: This study represents one of the largest contemporary single institution reviews of long-term outcomes of giant thoracic SFT. Our data suggest that size is not a risk factor for recurrence in thoracic SFTs and long-term survival is excellent for giant SFTs.

Improved outcomes and staging in non-small-cell lung cancer guided by a molecular assay.

There remains a critical need for improved staging of non-small-cell lung cancer, as recurrence and mortality due to undetectable metastases at the time of surgery remain high even after complete resection of tumors currently categorized as 'early stage.' A 14-gene quantitative PCR-based expression profile has been extensively validated to better identify patients at high-risk of 5-year mortality after surgical resection than conventional staging - mortality that almost always results from previously undetectable metastases. Furthermore, prospective studies now suggest a predictive benefit in disease-free survival when the assay is used to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer patients.

Lay abstract There is a need for improvement in the way early-stage non-small-cell lung cancers are staged and treated because many patients with 'early-stage' disease suffer high rates of cancer recurrence after surgery. In recent years, a specialized test has been developed to allow better characterization of a tumor's risk of recurrence based on the genes being expressed by tumor cells. Use of this test, in conjunction with standard staging methods, is better able to identify patients at high risk of cancer recurrence after surgery. Evidence suggests that giving chemotherapy to patients at high risk of recurrence after surgery reduces recurrence rates and improves long-term patient survival.

Parental support and monitoring as associated with adolescent alcohol and tobacco use by gender and age.

BACKGROUND: Parental support (PS) and parental monitoring (PM) are known protective factors against adolescent substance use (SU). However, little is known about whether PS and PM may affect SU outcomes differently by gender and age. This study examined the relationship between PS and PM and adolescent SU, specifically alcohol and tobacco use, stratified by gender and age group. METHODS: Middle and high school students (n = 2351, 48.5% Female) completed surveys of self-reported SU, perceived PS and PM, and socioeconomic background. Age group was defined dichotomously as grade 7-8 Middle school and grade 9-10 High school students. PS and PM were each measured using previously validated tools. SU was measured by lifetime and past 30 days cigarette/alcohol use. One-way ANOVA and binary logistic regression models were completed. Odds ratios and means were reported. RESULTS: PS and PM were significantly and negatively related to all outcome variables regardless of gender and age group. Mean differences in PS and PM were insignificant between age groups. Between genders, PM scores were significantly higher for girls (14.05) compared to boys (13.48) (p < 0.01). Odds Ratios of all four SU types (for alcohol and tobacco use) increased with higher age group, with ORs ranging from 1.45-2.61 (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: PS and PM were protective against SU for all participants, consistent with previous literature. Girls reported greater parental monitoring than boys, irrespective of age-group. While girls experienced higher levels of monitoring, they did not report lower SU than boys. This suggests that monitoring girls more closely than boys appears unnecessary in preventing adolescent SU. Finally, PS was a more significant factor in preventing SU for older adolescents (high school aged group) than for younger adolescents, irrespective of gender suggesting that PS may be more impactful and important as adolescents age. As children mature, particularly from middle school to high school, PS may play a larger role in preventing SU for older adolescents compared to younger ones.

Testing risk and protective factor assumptions in the Icelandic model of adolescent substance use prevention.

Iceland has witnessed a dramatic decline in adolescent substance use that may be partly the result of efforts related to the Icelandic prevention model (IPM). We sought to test risk and protective factor assumptions of the IPM using a prospective cohort study with 12 months separating baseline from follow-up. Participants were students in grades 8 and 9 in the national Icelandic school system enrolled in the spring of 2018 and 2019 (N=2165). Participants self-reported their experiences of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and cannabis use and seven risk and protective factors. Analyses were conducted with generalized linear modeling with extension to general estimating equations with correlated outcomes data. Both individual main-effects models and collective models including all main-effects were tested. Out of 28 individual main-effects models, 23 produced findings consistent with study premises (P<0.05). Multiple main-effects models largely sustained the findings of the individual main-effects models. Findings support the assumption that the risk and protective factors commonly emphasized in the IPM are associated with the four different substance use outcomes in the hypothesized direction. Communities that plan to implement the IPM among adolescents might consider these factors in their work.

Flaxseed Effects on Inflammation Regulatory Gene Expressions in an Obese Animal Model.

Obesity is known to be partially influenced by low-grade inflammation caused by pro-inflammatory cytokines and excess adipose tissue. Flaxseed contains secoisolariciresinol diglucoside (SDG) and α-linolenic acid (ALA) that have been shown to prevent pro-inflammatory cytokine production and secretion. This study determined flaxseed effects on inflammation regulatory gene expressions and their relationships with weight gain in an obese animal model. C57BL/6J mice were fed with whole flaxseed, defatted flaxseed, or flaxseed oil supplemented high-fat diet for eight weeks. After eight weeks of dietary treatment, NF-κB, IκBα, IKKß, IL-6, TNF-α, Akt2, and adiponectin gene expressions were measured. The result shows how health-promoting compounds in flaxseed assist in alleviating and preventing obesity-induced low-grade inflammation by actively working against IKKß/NF-κB pathway.

SBCDDB: Sleeping Beauty Cancer Driver Database for gene discovery in mouse models of human cancers.

Large-scale oncogenomic studies have identified few frequently mutated cancer drivers and hundreds of infrequently mutated drivers. Defining the biological context for rare driving events is fundamentally important to increasing our understanding of the druggable pathways in cancer. Sleeping Beauty (SB) insertional mutagenesis is a powerful gene discovery tool used to model human cancers in mice. Our lab and others have published a number of studies that identify cancer drivers from these models using various statistical and computational approaches. Here, we have integrated SB data from primary tumor models into an analysis and reporting framework, the Sleeping Beauty Cancer Driver DataBase (SBCDDB, http://sbcddb.moffitt.org), which identifies drivers in individual tumors or tumor populations. Unique to this effort, the SBCDDB utilizes a single, scalable, statistical analysis method that enables data to be grouped by different biological properties. This allows for SB drivers to be evaluated (and re-evaluated) under different contexts. The SBCDDB provides visual representations highlighting the spatial attributes of transposon mutagenesis and couples this functionality with analysis of gene sets, enabling users to interrogate relationships between drivers. The SBCDDB is a powerful resource for comparative oncogenomic analyses with human cancer genomics datasets for driver prioritization.