Patterns and correlates of major depression in Chinese adults: a cross-sectional study of 0.5 million men and women.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide 350 million people suffer from major depression, with the majority of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. We examined the patterns, correlates and care-seeking behaviour of adults suffering from major depressive episode (MDE) in China. METHOD: A nationwide study recruited 512 891 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 provinces across China during 2004-2008. The 12-month prevalence of MDE was assessed by the Modified Composite International Diagnostic Interview-short form. Logistic regression yielded adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of MDE associated with socio-economic, lifestyle and health-related factors and major stressful life events. RESULTS: Overall, 0.7% of participants had MDE and a further 2.4% had major depressive symptoms. Stressful life events were strongly associated with MDE [adjusted OR 14.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.7-15.7], with a dose-response relationship with the number of such events experienced. Family conflict had the highest OR for MDE (18.9, 95% CI 16.8-21.2) among the 10 stressful life events. The risk of MDE was also positively associated with rural residency (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4-1.7), low income (OR 2.3, 95% CI 2.1-2.4), living alone (OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.3-3.0), smoking (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.3-1.6) and certain other mental disorders (e.g. anxiety, phobia). Similar, albeit weaker, associations were observed with depressive symptoms. Among those with MDE, about 15% sought medical help or took psychiatric medication, 15% reported having suicidal ideation and 6% reported attempting suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, the patterns and correlates of MDE were generally consistent with those observed in the West. The low rates of seeking professional help and treatment highlight the great gap in mental health services in China.

Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis of 52 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy on ovarian cancer risk. METHODS: Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies. Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. FINDINGS: During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with <5 years of use (RR 1·43, 95% CI 1·31-1·56; p<0·0001). Combining current-or-recent use (any duration, but stopped <5 years before diagnosis) resulted in an RR of 1·37 (95% CI 1·29-1·46; p<0·0001); this risk was similar in European and American prospective studies and for oestrogen-only and oestrogen-progestagen preparations, but differed across the four main tumour types (heterogeneity p<0·0001), being definitely increased only for the two most common types, serous (RR 1·53, 95% CI 1·40-1·66; p<0·0001) and endometrioid (1·42, 1·20-1·67; p<0·0001). Risk declined the longer ago use had ceased, although about 10 years after stopping long-duration hormone therapy use there was still an excess of serous or endometrioid tumours (RR 1·25, 95% CI 1·07-1·46, p=0·005). INTERPRETATION: The increased risk may well be largely or wholly causal; if it is, women who use hormone therapy for 5 years from around age 50 years have about one extra ovarian cancer per 1000 users and, if its prognosis is typical, about one extra ovarian cancer death per 1700 users. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK.

Effect of radiotherapy after mastectomy and axillary surgery on 10-year recurrence and 20-year breast cancer mortality: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 8135 women in 22 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Postmastectomy radiotherapy was shown in previous meta-analyses to reduce the risks of both recurrence and breast cancer mortality in all women with node-positive disease considered together. However, the benefit in women with only one to three positive lymph nodes is uncertain. We aimed to assess the effect of radiotherapy in these women after mastectomy and axillary dissection. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of individual data for 8135 women randomly assigned to treatment groups during 1964-86 in 22 trials of radiotherapy to the chest wall and regional lymph nodes after mastectomy and axillary surgery versus the same surgery but no radiotherapy. Follow-up lasted 10 years for recurrence and to Jan 1, 2009, for mortality. Analyses were stratified by trial, individual follow-up year, age at entry, and pathological nodal status. FINDINGS: 3786 women had axillary dissection to at least level II and had zero, one to three, or four or more positive nodes. All were in trials in which radiotherapy included the chest wall, supraclavicular or axillary fossa (or both), and internal mammary chain. For 700 women with axillary dissection and no positive nodes, radiotherapy had no significant effect on locoregional recurrence (two-sided significance level [2p]>0·1), overall recurrence (rate ratio [RR], irradiated vs not, 1·06, 95% CI 0·76-1·48, 2p>0·1), or breast cancer mortality (RR 1·18, 95% CI 0·89-1·55, 2p>0·1). For 1314 women with axillary dissection and one to three positive nodes, radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·68, 95% CI 0·57-0·82, 2p=0·00006), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·80, 95% CI 0·67-0·95, 2p=0·01). 1133 of these 1314 women were in trials in which systemic therapy (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil, or tamoxifen) was given in both trial groups and, for them, radiotherapy again reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·67, 95% CI 0·55-0·82, 2p=0·00009), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·64-0·94, 2p=0·01). For 1772 women with axillary dissection and four or more positive nodes, radiotherapy reduced locoregional recurrence (2p<0·00001), overall recurrence (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·69-0·90, 2p=0·0003), and breast cancer mortality (RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·77-0·99, 2p=0·04). INTERPRETATION: After mastectomy and axillary dissection, radiotherapy reduced both recurrence and breast cancer mortality in the women with one to three positive lymph nodes in these trials even when systemic therapy was given. For today's women, who in many countries are at lower risk of recurrence, absolute gains might be smaller but proportional gains might be larger because of more effective radiotherapy. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council.

Associations of blood glucose and prevalent diabetes with risk of cardiovascular disease in 500 000 adult Chinese: the China Kadoorie Biobank.

AIMS: To examine the relationship of self-reported diabetes, and of random blood glucose levels among individuals without known diabetes, with the prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Chinese adults. METHODS: We examined cross-sectional data from the China Kadoorie Biobank of 0.5 million people aged 30-79 years recruited from 10 diverse regions of China in the period 2004-2008. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios of prevalent cardiovascular disease associated with self-reported diabetes, and with measured random blood glucose levels among participants with no history of diabetes, adjusting simultaneously for age, sex, area, education, smoking, alcohol, blood pressure and physical activity. RESULTS: A total of 3.2% of participants had self-reported diabetes (men 2.9%; women 3.3%) and 2.8% had screen-detected diabetes (men 2.6%; women 2.8%), i.e. they had no self-reported history of diabetes but a blood glucose level suggestive of a diagnosis of diabetes. Compared with individuals without a history of diabetes, the odds ratios associated with self-reported diabetes were 2.18 (95% CI 2.06-2.30) and 1.88 (95% CI 1.75-2.01) for prevalent ischaemic heart disease and stroke/transient ischaemic attack, respectively. Among participants without self-reported diabetes there was a positive association between random blood glucose and ischaemic heart disease and stroke/transient ischaemic attack prevalence (P for trend <0.0001). Below the diabetic threshold (<11.1 mmol/l) each additional 1 mmol/l of random blood glucose was associated with 4% (95% CI 2-5%) and 5% (95% CI 3-7%) higher odds of prevalent ischaemic heart disease and stroke/transient ischaemic attack, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this adult Chinese population, self-reported diabetes was associated with a doubling of the odds of prevalent cardiovascular disease. Below the threshold for diabetes there was still a modest, positive association between random blood glucose and prevalent cardiovascular disease.

Comparisons between different polychemotherapy regimens for early breast cancer: meta-analyses of long-term outcome among 100,000 women in 123 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Moderate differences in efficacy between adjuvant chemotherapy regimens for breast cancer are plausible, and could affect treatment choices. We sought any such differences. METHODS: We undertook individual-patient-data meta-analyses of the randomised trials comparing: any taxane-plus-anthracycline-based regimen versus the same, or more, non-taxane chemotherapy (n=44,000); one anthracycline-based regimen versus another (n=7000) or versus cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF; n=18,000); and polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy (n=32,000). The scheduled dosages of these three drugs and of the anthracyclines doxorubicin (A) and epirubicin (E) were used to define standard CMF, standard 4AC, and CAF and CEF. Log-rank breast cancer mortality rate ratios (RRs) are reported. FINDINGS: In trials adding four separate cycles of a taxane to a fixed anthracycline-based control regimen, extending treatment duration, breast cancer mortality was reduced (RR 0·86, SE 0·04, two-sided significance [2p]=0·0005). In trials with four such extra cycles of a taxane counterbalanced in controls by extra cycles of other cytotoxic drugs, roughly doubling non-taxane dosage, there was no significant difference (RR 0·94, SE 0·06, 2p=0·33). Trials with CMF-treated controls showed that standard 4AC and standard CMF were equivalent (RR 0·98, SE 0·05, 2p=0·67), but that anthracycline-based regimens with substantially higher cumulative dosage than standard 4AC (eg, CAF or CEF) were superior to standard CMF (RR 0·78, SE 0·06, 2p=0·0004). Trials versus no chemotherapy also suggested greater mortality reductions with CAF (RR 0·64, SE 0·09, 2p<0·0001) than with standard 4AC (RR 0·78, SE 0·09, 2p=0·01) or standard CMF (RR 0·76, SE 0·05, 2p<0·0001). In all meta-analyses involving taxane-based or anthracycline-based regimens, proportional risk reductions were little affected by age, nodal status, tumour diameter or differentiation (moderate or poor; few were well differentiated), oestrogen receptor status, or tamoxifen use. Hence, largely independently of age (up to at least 70 years) or the tumour characteristics currently available to us for the patients selected to be in these trials, some taxane-plus-anthracycline-based or higher-cumulative-dosage anthracycline-based regimens (not requiring stem cells) reduced breast cancer mortality by, on average, about one-third. 10-year overall mortality differences paralleled breast cancer mortality differences, despite taxane, anthracycline, and other toxicities. INTERPRETATION: 10-year gains from a one-third breast cancer mortality reduction depend on absolute risks without chemotherapy (which, for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease, are the risks remaining with appropriate endocrine therapy). Low absolute risk implies low absolute benefit, but information was lacking about tumour gene expression markers or quantitative immunohistochemistry that might help to predict risk, chemosensitivity, or both. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.

Ovarian cancer and smoking: individual participant meta-analysis including 28,114 women with ovarian cancer from 51 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Smoking has been linked to mucinous ovarian cancer, but its effects on other ovarian cancer subtypes and on overall ovarian cancer risk are unclear, and the findings from most studies with relevant data are unpublished. To assess these associations, we review the published and unpublished evidence. METHODS: Eligible epidemiological studies were identified by electronic searches, review articles, and discussions with colleagues. Individual participant data for 28,114 women with and 94,942 without ovarian cancer from 51 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally, yielding adjusted relative risks (RRs) of ovarian cancer in smokers compared with never smokers. FINDINGS: After exclusion of studies with hospital controls, in which smoking could have affected recruitment, overall ovarian cancer incidence was only slightly increased in current smokers compared with women who had never smoked (RR 1·06, 95% CI 1·01-1·11, p=0·01). Of 17,641 epithelial cancers with specified histology, 2314 (13%) were mucinous, 2360 (13%) endometrioid, 969 (5%) clear-cell, and 9086 (52%) serous. Smoking-related risks varied substantially across these subtypes (p(heterogeneity)<0·0001). For mucinous cancers, incidence was increased in current versus never smokers (1·79, 95% CI 1·60-2·00, p<0·0001), but the increase was mainly in borderline malignant rather than in fully malignant tumours (2·25, 95% CI 1·91-2·65 vs 1·49, 1·28-1·73; p(heterogeneity)=0·01; almost half the mucinous tumours were only borderline malignant). Both endometrioid (0·81, 95% CI 0·72-0·92, p=0·001) and clear-cell ovarian cancer risks (0·80, 95% CI 0·65-0·97, p=0·03) were reduced in current smokers, and there was no significant association for serous ovarian cancers (0·99, 95% CI 0·93-1·06, p=0·8). These associations did not vary significantly by 13 sociodemographic and personal characteristics of women including their body-mass index, parity, and use of alcohol, oral contraceptives, and menopausal hormone therapy. INTERPRETATION: The excess of mucinous ovarian cancers in smokers, which is mainly of tumours of borderline malignancy, is roughly counterbalanced by the deficit of endometrioid and clear-cell ovarian cancers. The substantial variation in smoking-related risks by tumour subtype is important for understanding ovarian carcinogenesis. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK and MRC.

Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to the efficacy of adjuvant tamoxifen: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: As trials of 5 years of tamoxifen in early breast cancer mature, the relevance of hormone receptor measurements (and other patient characteristics) to long-term outcome can be assessed increasingly reliably. We report updated meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. METHODS: We undertook a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from 20 trials (n=21,457) in early breast cancer of about 5 years of tamoxifen versus no adjuvant tamoxifen, with about 80% compliance. Recurrence and death rate ratios (RRs) were from log-rank analyses by allocated treatment. FINDINGS: In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease (n=10,645), allocation to about 5 years of tamoxifen substantially reduced recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years (RR 0·53 [SE 0·03] during years 0-4 and RR 0·68 [0·06] during years 5-9 [both 2p<0·00001]; but RR 0·97 [0·10] during years 10-14, suggesting no further gain or loss after year 10). Even in marginally ER-positive disease (10-19 fmol/mg cytosol protein) the recurrence reduction was substantial (RR 0·67 [0·08]). In ER-positive disease, the RR was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years (RR 0·71 [0·05] during years 0-4, 0·66 [0·05] during years 5-9, and 0·68 [0·08] during years 10-14; p<0·0001 for extra mortality reduction during each separate time period). Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality. INTERPRETATION: 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen safely reduces 15-year risks of breast cancer recurrence and death. ER status was the only recorded factor importantly predictive of the proportional reductions. Hence, the absolute risk reductions produced by tamoxifen depend on the absolute breast cancer risks (after any chemotherapy) without tamoxifen. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Medical Research Council.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk. METHODS: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease. FINDINGS: Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7-17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6-6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2-17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8-5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (≥20%), intermediate (10-19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1-12·5), 1·1% (-2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (-7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5-27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8-15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease. INTERPRETATION: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Epidemiology and the control of disease in China, with emphasis on the Chinese Biobank Study.

Similar to many other developing countries, China is facing a double burden of disease as a result of epidemiological transition. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a major challenge, having an adverse effect on the health of the Chinese population and increasing the economic burden of health care. In today's era of evidence-based medicine and decision making, China, as a developing country, has a lack of local scientific evidence which will affect the effectiveness of NCD prevention and control. As such, and on the basis of decades of cooperation and trust with the University of Oxford, the Chinese Biobank Study [Kadoorie Study of Chronic Disease in China (KSCDC)] was commenced in 2004. KSCDC, an international prospective project, aims to establish the basis of a blood-based health database, using genetic, environmental and lifestyle aspects to investigate and understand the causes, risk factors, pathogenesis, prevalence patterns and trends of major chronic diseases in China (such as stroke, coronary heart disease, cancer, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease etc.). This study has a duration of 15-20 years, and will provide scientific evidence for strategic planning of NCD prevention and control, and development of new treatment and intervention approaches. In total, approximately 510,000 adults aged 30-79 years have been recruited from the general population in 10 geographically defined regions (five rural and five urban) of China, with differing disease profiles and differing risk exposures. Extensive data collection has been undertaken with questionnaires, physical measurements, and collection and storage of blood samples. KSCDC is a multi-factor, multi-disease, multi-disciplinary large-scale chronic disease epidemiological study, and is also one of the largest long-term blood-based population cohort studies ever conducted in the world. It is worth mentioning that all gene specimens are kept in China, and all associated intellectual property rights are owned by international cooperation groups; this breaks new ground for Chinese and foreign international cooperation. This article describes the study design, baseline description and main results to date.

Organising a World Congress of Epidemiology (WCE): reflections and lessons from the XIX WCE, Scotland.

The 3-yearly World Congress of Epidemiology is the premier, international, scientific conference organised under the auspices of the International Epidemiological Association (in open competition). This paper explores the justification for seeking to host the Congress and reflects on the structures and processes adopted in making the XIXth Congress in Scotland happen. Preparing the bid was invaluable for forming collaborations, generating scientific ideas, and garnering opinion. After the bid was accepted, we formed a local organising committee, named the Management Executive Committee to signal its decision making authority; and scientific, fundraising, marketing, international and social subcommittees. There was uncertainty about critical matters such as delegate numbers, costs and the total budget. Early decisions had to be made on, for example, the fee and fundraising target (£250,000), despite financial risks. Development of the scientific programme was a critical step that underpinned fundraising and marketing and permitted involvement of the international committee. Overall the 2011 WCE succeeded. The key ingredients to success were: a large collaboration of institutions and individuals; early pledges of financial support mostly from the UK; the valuable and relevant experience of the professional conference organisers; unstinting support and advice from IEA; and the effectiveness of the committee structure. The educational and professional development benefits of this WCE will reach a worldwide community and not just delegates, because of video, PowerPoint and textual accounts being open access on the Internet. This reach is unprecedented for IEA's World Congresses. We anticipate that the Congress will translate into better public health practice, better future Congresses, advances in epidemiology and improved population health.

Current misconception 3: that subgroup-specific trial mortality results often provide a good basis for individualising patient care.

Misconceptions and ill-founded theories can arise in all areas of science. However, the apparent accessibility of many epidemiology findings and popular interest in the subject can lead to additional misunderstandings. The article below is the third in an occasional series of short editorials highlighting some current misinterpretations of epidemiological findings. Invited authors will be given wide scope in judging the prevalence of the misconception under discussion. We hope that this series will prove instructive to cancer researchers in other disciplines as well as to students of epidemiology. Adrian L Harris and Leo Kinlen.

Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: a meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Lowering of LDL cholesterol with standard statin regimens reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events in a wide range of individuals. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol with statin therapy. METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of individual participant data from randomised trials involving at least 1000 participants and at least 2 years' treatment duration of more versus less intensive statin regimens (five trials; 39 612 individuals; median follow-up 5·1 years) and of statin versus control (21 trials; 129 526 individuals; median follow-up 4·8 years). For each type of trial, we calculated not only the average risk reduction, but also the average risk reduction per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction at 1 year after randomisation. FINDINGS: In the trials of more versus less intensive statin therapy, the weighted mean further reduction in LDL cholesterol at 1 year was 0·51 mmol/L. Compared with less intensive regimens, more intensive regimens produced a highly significant 15% (95% CI 11-18; p<0·0001) further reduction in major vascular events, consisting of separately significant reductions in coronary death or non-fatal myocardial infarction of 13% (95% CI 7-19; p<0·0001), in coronary revascularisation of 19% (95% CI 15-24; p<0·0001), and in ischaemic stroke of 16% (95% CI 5-26; p=0·005). Per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, these further reductions in risk were similar to the proportional reductions in the trials of statin versus control. When both types of trial were combined, similar proportional reductions in major vascular events per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction were found in all types of patient studied (rate ratio [RR] 0·78, 95% CI 0·76-0·80; p<0·0001), including those with LDL cholesterol lower than 2 mmol/L on the less intensive or control regimen. Across all 26 trials, all-cause mortality was reduced by 10% per 1·0 mmol/L LDL reduction (RR 0·90, 95% CI 0·87-0·93; p<0·0001), largely reflecting significant reductions in deaths due to coronary heart disease (RR 0·80, 99% CI 0·74-0·87; p<0·0001) and other cardiac causes (RR 0·89, 99% CI 0·81-0·98; p=0·002), with no significant effect on deaths due to stroke (RR 0·96, 95% CI 0·84-1·09; p=0·5) or other vascular causes (RR 0·98, 99% CI 0·81-1·18; p=0·8). No significant effects were observed on deaths due to cancer or other non-vascular causes (RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·92-1·03; p=0·3) or on cancer incidence (RR 1·00, 95% CI 0·96-1·04; p=0·9), even at low LDL cholesterol concentrations. INTERPRETATION: Further reductions in LDL cholesterol safely produce definite further reductions in the incidence of heart attack, of revascularisation, and of ischaemic stroke, with each 1·0 mmol/L reduction reducing the annual rate of these major vascular events by just over a fifth. There was no evidence of any threshold within the cholesterol range studied, suggesting that reduction of LDL cholesterol by 2-3 mmol/L would reduce risk by about 40-50%. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, European Community Biomed Programme, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and National Heart Foundation.

Pre-referral rectal artesunate to prevent death and disability in severe malaria: a placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Most malaria deaths occur in rural areas. Rapid progression from illness to death can be interrupted by prompt, effective medication. Antimalarial treatment cannot rescue terminally ill patients but could be effective if given earlier. If patients who cannot be treated orally are several hours from facilities for injections, rectal artesunate can be given before referral and acts rapidly on parasites. We investigated whether this intervention reduced mortality and permanent disability. METHODS: In Bangladesh, Ghana, and Tanzania, patients with suspected severe malaria who could not be treated orally were allocated randomly to a single artesunate (n=8954) or placebo (n=8872) suppository by taking the next numbered box, then referred to clinics at which injections could be given. Those with antimalarial injections or negative blood smears before randomisation were excluded, leaving 12 068 patients (6072 artesunate, 5996 placebo) for analysis. Primary endpoints were mortality, assessed 7-30 days later, and permanent disability, reassessed periodically. All investigators were masked to group assignment. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered in all three countries, numbers ISRCTN83979018, 46343627, and 76987662. RESULTS: Mortality was 154 of 6072 artesunate versus 177 of 5996 placebo (2.5%vs 3.0%, p=0.1). Two versus 13 (0.03%vs 0.22%, p=0.0020) were permanently disabled; total dead or disabled: 156 versus 190 (2.6%vs 3.2%, p=0.0484). There was no reduction in early mortality (56 vs 51 deaths within 6 h; median 2 h). In patients reaching clinic within 6 h (median 3 h), pre-referral artesunate had no significant effect on death after 6 h or permanent disability (71/4450 [1.6%] vs 82/4426 [1.9%], risk ratio 0.86 [95% CI 0.63-1.18], p=0.35). In patients still not in clinic after more than 6 h, however, half were still not there after more than 15 h, and pre-referral rectal artesunate significantly reduced death or permanent disability (29/1566 [1.9%] vs 57/1519 [3.8%], risk ratio 0.49 [95% CI 0.32-0.77], p=0.0013). INTERPRETATION: If patients with severe malaria cannot be treated orally and access to injections will take several hours, a single inexpensive artesunate suppository at the time of referral substantially reduces the risk of death or permanent disability. FUNDING: UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO/TDR); WHO Global Malaria Programme (WHO/GMP); Sall Family Foundation; the European Union (QLRT-2000-01430); the UK Medical Research Council; USAID; Irish Aid; the Karolinska Institute; and the University of Oxford Clinical Trial Service Unit (CTSU).

Ovarian cancer and oral contraceptives: collaborative reanalysis of data from 45 epidemiological studies including 23,257 women with ovarian cancer and 87,303 controls.

BACKGROUND: Oral contraceptives were introduced almost 50 years ago, and over 100 million women currently use them. Oral contraceptives can reduce the risk of ovarian cancer, but the eventual public-health effects of this reduction will depend on how long the protection lasts after use ceases. We aimed to assess these effects. METHODS: Individual data for 23,257 women with ovarian cancer (cases) and 87,303 without ovarian cancer (controls) from 45 epidemiological studies in 21 countries were checked and analysed centrally. The relative risk of ovarian cancer in relation to oral contraceptive use was estimated, stratifying by study, age, parity, and hysterectomy. FINDINGS: Overall 7308 (31%) cases and 32,717 (37%) controls had ever used oral contraceptives, for average durations among users of 4.4 and 5.0 years, respectively. The median year of cancer diagnosis was 1993, when cases were aged an average of 56 years. The longer that women had used oral contraceptives, the greater the reduction in ovarian cancer risk (p<0.0001). This reduction in risk persisted for more than 30 years after oral contraceptive use had ceased but became somewhat attenuated over time-the proportional risk reductions per 5 years of use were 29% (95% CI 23-34%) for use that had ceased less than 10 years previously, 19% (14-24%) for use that had ceased 10-19 years previously, and 15% (9-21%) for use that had ceased 20-29 years previously. Use during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s was associated with similar proportional risk reductions, although typical oestrogen doses in the 1960s were more than double those in the 1980s. The incidence of mucinous tumours (12% of the total) seemed little affected by oral contraceptives, but otherwise the proportional risk reduction did not vary much between different histological types. In high-income countries, 10 years use of oral contraceptives was estimated to reduce ovarian cancer incidence before age 75 from 1.2 to 0.8 per 100 users and mortality from 0.7 to 0.5 per 100; for every 5000 woman-years of use, about two ovarian cancers and one death from the disease before age 75 are prevented. INTERPRETATION: Use of oral contraceptives confers long-term protection against ovarian cancer. These findings suggest that oral contraceptives have already prevented some 200,000 ovarian cancers and 100,000 deaths from the disease, and that over the next few decades the number of cancers prevented will rise to at least 30,000 per year.

Efficacy of cholesterol-lowering therapy in 18,686 people with diabetes in 14 randomised trials of statins: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events in people with diabetes mellitus, there is uncertainty about the effects on particular outcomes and whether such effects depend on the type of diabetes, lipid profile, or other factors. We undertook a prospective meta-analysis to help resolve these uncertainties. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 686 individuals with diabetes (1466 with type 1 and 17,220 with type 2) in the context of a further 71,370 without diabetes in 14 randomised trials of statin therapy. Weighted estimates were obtained of effects on clinical outcomes per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: During a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, there were 3247 major vascular events in people with diabetes. There was a 9% proportional reduction in all-cause mortality per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in participants with diabetes (rate ratio [RR] 0.91, 99% CI 0.82-1.01; p=0.02), which was similar to the 13% reduction in those without diabetes (0.87, 0.82-0.92; p<0.0001). This finding reflected a significant reduction in vascular mortality (0.87, 0.76-1.00; p=0.008) and no effect on non-vascular mortality (0.97, 0.82-1.16; p=0.7) in participants with diabetes. There was a significant 21% proportional reduction in major vascular events per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in people with diabetes (0.79, 0.72-0.86; p<0.0001), which was similar to the effect observed in those without diabetes (0.79, 0.76-0.82; p<0.0001). In diabetic participants there were reductions in myocardial infarction or coronary death (0.78, 0.69-0.87; p<0.0001), coronary revascularisation (0.75, 0.64-0.88; p<0.0001), and stroke (0.79, 0.67-0.93; p=0.0002). Among people with diabetes the proportional effects of statin therapy were similar irrespective of whether there was a prior history of vascular disease and irrespective of other baseline characteristics. After 5 years, 42 (95% CI 30-55) fewer people with diabetes had major vascular events per 1000 allocated statin therapy. INTERPRETATION: Statin therapy should be considered for all diabetic individuals who are at sufficiently high risk of vascular events.

Adjuvant chemotherapy in oestrogen-receptor-poor breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The long-term effects of adjuvant polychemotherapy regimens in oestrogen-receptor-poor (ER-poor) breast cancer, and the extent to which these effects are modified by age or tamoxifen use, can be assessed by an updated meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials. METHODS: Collaborative meta-analyses of individual patient data for about 6000 women with ER-poor breast cancer in 46 trials of polychemotherapy versus not (non-taxane-based polychemotherapy, typically about six cycles; trial start dates 1975-96, median 1984) and about 14 000 women with ER-poor breast cancer in 50 trials of tamoxifen versus not (some trials in the presence and some in the absence of polychemotherapy; trial start dates 1972-93, median 1982). FINDINGS: In women with ER-poor breast cancer, polychemotherapy significantly reduced recurrence, breast cancer mortality, and death from any cause, in those younger than 50 years and those aged 50-69 years at entry into trials of polychemotherapy versus not. In those aged younger than 50 years (1907 women, 15% node-positive), the 10-year risks were: recurrence 33% versus 45% (ratio of 10-year risks 0.73, 2p<0.00001), breast cancer mortality 24% versus 32% (ratio 0.73, 2p=0.0002), and death from any cause 25% versus 33% (ratio 0.75, 2p=0.0003). In women aged 50-69 years (3965 women, 58% node-positive), the 10-year risks were: recurrence 42% versus 52% (ratio 0.82, 2p<0.00001), breast cancer mortality 36% versus 42% (ratio 0.86, 2p=0.0004), and death from any cause 39% versus 45% (ratio 0.87, 2p=0.0009). Few were aged 70 years or older. Tamoxifen had little effect on recurrence or death in women who were classified in these trials as having ER-poor disease, and did not significantly modify the effects of polychemotherapy. INTERPRETATION: In women who had ER-poor breast cancer, and were either younger than 50 years or between 50 and 69 years, these older adjuvant polychemotherapy regimens were safe (ie, had little effect on mortality from causes other than breast cancer) and produced substantial and definite reductions in the 10-year risks of recurrence and death. Current and future chemotherapy regimens could well yield larger proportional reductions in breast cancer mortality.

Addition of clopidogrel to aspirin in 45,852 patients with acute myocardial infarction: randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in the emergency treatment of myocardial infarction (MI), early mortality and morbidity remain high. The antiplatelet agent clopidogrel adds to the benefit of aspirin in acute coronary syndromes without ST-segment elevation, but its effects in patients with ST-elevation MI were unclear. METHODS: 45,852 patients admitted to 1250 hospitals within 24 h of suspected acute MI onset were randomly allocated clopidogrel 75 mg daily (n=22,961) or matching placebo (n=22,891) in addition to aspirin 162 mg daily. 93% had ST-segment elevation or bundle branch block, and 7% had ST-segment depression. Treatment was to continue until discharge or up to 4 weeks in hospital (mean 15 days in survivors) and 93% of patients completed it. The two prespecified co-primary outcomes were: (1) the composite of death, reinfarction, or stroke; and (2) death from any cause during the scheduled treatment period. Comparisons were by intention to treat, and used the log-rank method. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00222573. FINDINGS: Allocation to clopidogrel produced a highly significant 9% (95% CI 3-14) proportional reduction in death, reinfarction, or stroke (2121 [9.2%] clopidogrel vs 2310 [10.1%] placebo; p=0.002), corresponding to nine (SE 3) fewer events per 1000 patients treated for about 2 weeks. There was also a significant 7% (1-13) proportional reduction in any death (1726 [7.5%] vs 1845 [8.1%]; p=0.03). These effects on death, reinfarction, and stroke seemed consistent across a wide range of patients and independent of other treatments being used. Considering all fatal, transfused, or cerebral bleeds together, no significant excess risk was noted with clopidogrel, either overall (134 [0.58%] vs 125 [0.55%]; p=0.59), or in patients aged older than 70 years or in those given fibrinolytic therapy. INTERPRETATION: In a wide range of patients with acute MI, adding clopidogrel 75 mg daily to aspirin and other standard treatments (such as fibrinolytic therapy) safely reduces mortality and major vascular events in hospital, and should be considered routinely.

Early intravenous then oral metoprolol in 45,852 patients with acute myocardial infarction: randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite previous randomised trials of early beta-blocker therapy in the emergency treatment of myocardial infarction (MI), uncertainty has persisted about the value of adding it to current standard interventions (eg, aspirin and fibrinolytic therapy), and the balance of potential benefits and hazards is still unclear in high-risk patients. METHODS: 45,852 patients admitted to 1250 hospitals within 24 h of suspected acute MI onset were randomly allocated metoprolol (up to 15 mg intravenous then 200 mg oral daily; n=22,929) or matching placebo (n=22,923). 93% had ST-segment elevation or bundle branch block, and 7% had ST-segment depression. Treatment was to continue until discharge or up to 4 weeks in hospital (mean 15 days in survivors) and 89% completed it. The two prespecified co-primary outcomes were: (1) composite of death, reinfarction, or cardiac arrest; and (2) death from any cause during the scheduled treatment period. Comparisons were by intention to treat, and used the log-rank method. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT 00222573. FINDINGS: Neither of the co-primary outcomes was significantly reduced by allocation to metoprolol. For death, reinfarction, or cardiac arrest, 2166 (9.4%) patients allocated metoprolol had at least one such event compared with 2261 (9.9%) allocated placebo (odds ratio [OR] 0.96, 95% CI 0.90-1.01; p=0.1). For death alone, there were 1774 (7.7%) deaths in the metoprolol group versus 1797 (7.8%) in the placebo group (OR 0.99, 0.92-1.05; p=0.69). Allocation to metoprolol was associated with five fewer people having reinfarction (464 [2.0%] metoprolol vs 568 [2.5%] placebo; OR 0.82, 0.72-0.92; p=0.001) and five fewer having ventricular fibrillation (581 [2.5%] vs 698 [3.0%]; OR 0.83, 0.75-0.93; p=0.001) per 1000 treated. Overall, these reductions were counterbalanced by 11 more per 1000 developing cardiogenic shock (1141 [5.0%] vs 885 [3.9%]; OR 1.30, 1.19-1.41; p<0.00001). This excess of cardiogenic shock was mainly during days 0-1 after admission, whereas the reductions in reinfarction and ventricular fibrillation emerged more gradually. Consequently, the overall effect on death, reinfarction, arrest, or shock was significantly adverse during days 0-1 and significantly beneficial thereafter. There was substantial net hazard in haemodynamically unstable patients, and moderate net benefit in those who were relatively stable (particularly after days 0-1). INTERPRETATION: The use of early beta-blocker therapy in acute MI reduces the risks of reinfarction and ventricular fibrillation, but increases the risk of cardiogenic shock, especially during the first day or so after admission. Consequently, it might generally be prudent to consider starting beta-blocker therapy in hospital only when the haemodynamic condition after MI has stabilised.

Efficacy and safety of cholesterol-lowering treatment: prospective meta-analysis of data from 90,056 participants in 14 randomised trials of statins.

BACKGROUND: Results of previous randomised trials have shown that interventions that lower LDL cholesterol concentrations can significantly reduce the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and other major vascular events in a wide range of individuals. But each separate trial has limited power to assess particular outcomes or particular categories of participant. METHODS: A prospective meta-analysis of data from 90,056 individuals in 14 randomised trials of statins was done. Weighted estimates were obtained of effects on different clinical outcomes per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: During a mean of 5 years, there were 8186 deaths, 14,348 individuals had major vascular events, and 5103 developed cancer. Mean LDL cholesterol differences at 1 year ranged from 0.35 mmol/L to 1.77 mmol/L (mean 1.09) in these trials. There was a 12% proportional reduction in all-cause mortality per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol (rate ratio [RR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.91; p<0.0001). This reflected a 19% reduction in coronary mortality (0.81, 0.76-0.85; p<0.0001), and non-significant reductions in non-coronary vascular mortality (0.93, 0.83-1.03; p=0.2) and non-vascular mortality (0.95, 0.90-1.01; p=0.1). There were corresponding reductions in myocardial infarction or coronary death (0.77, 0.74-0.80; p<0.0001), in the need for coronary revascularisation (0.76, 0.73-0.80; p<0.0001), in fatal or non-fatal stroke (0.83, 0.78-0.88; p<0.0001), and, combining these, of 21% in any such major vascular event (0.79, 0.77-0.81; p<0.0001). The proportional reduction in major vascular events differed significantly (p<0.0001) according to the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol achieved, but not otherwise. These benefits were significant within the first year, but were greater in subsequent years. Taking all years together, the overall reduction of about one fifth per mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction translated into 48 (95% CI 39-57) fewer participants having major vascular events per 1000 among those with pre-existing CHD at baseline, compared with 25 (19-31) per 1000 among participants with no such history. There was no evidence that statins increased the incidence of cancer overall (1.00, 0.95-1.06; p=0.9) or at any particular site. INTERPRETATION: Statin therapy can safely reduce the 5-year incidence of major coronary events, coronary revascularisation, and stroke by about one fifth per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, largely irrespective of the initial lipid profile or other presenting characteristics. The absolute benefit relates chiefly to an individual's absolute risk of such events and to the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol achieved. These findings reinforce the need to consider prolonged statin treatment with substantial LDL cholesterol reductions in all patients at high risk of any type of major vascular event.