A prospective longitudinal study on the elimination trend of rural cutaneous leishmaniasis in southeastern Iran: Climate change, population displacement, and agricultural transition from 1991 to 2021.

Leishmaniasis is a complex disease. Any change in weather conditions affects the humans' social and agricultural expansion and, consequently, the parasite's life cycle in terms of ecology, biodiversity, social stigma, and exclusion. This population-based prospective longitudinal investigation was conducted between 1991 and 2021 in a well-defined CL (cutaneous leishmaniasis) focus in Bam County, southeastern Iran. A robust health clinic and health surveillance system were responsible for the ongoing systematic documentation, detection, identification, and management of CL cases. The exponential smoothing method via the state space model was used in the univariate time series. The TTR, smooth, and forecast packages were used in R software. Landsat satellite images from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were employed in the physical development. During this period, the temperature increased while the rainfall and humidity decreased. The findings showed a downward trend in the standardized drought index. Also, the results showed that climate warming and ecological changes profoundly affected the area's agricultural patterns and topographical features. Furthermore, the last three decades witnessed an elimination trend for zoonotic CL (ZCL) and the predominance of anthroponotic CL (ACL). The present findings showed that the critical factors in the predominance of ACL and elimination of ZCL were rising temperature, drought, migration, unplanned urbanization, earthquake, and agrarian reform. The wall-enclosed palm tree gardens excluded the primary ZCL reservoir host. They controlled the disease while providing suitable conditions for the emergence/re-emergence of ACL in the newly established settlements and the unplanned ecozone. Therefore, robust health infrastructures, sustained financial support, and evidence-based research studies are crucial to facilitating the necessary surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation to control and eliminate the disease.

Ambient air pollutants and breast cancer stage in Tehran, Iran.

This study aimed to examine the impacts of single and multiple air pollutants (AP) on the severity of breast cancer (BC). Data of 1148 diagnosed BC cases (2008-2016) were obtained from the Cancer Research Center and private oncologist offices in Tehran, Iran. Ambient PM10, SO2, NO, NO2, NOX, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene, and BTEX data were obtained from previously developed land use regression models. Associations between pollutants and stage of BC were assessed by multinomial logistic regression models. An increase of 10 µg/m3 in ethylbenzene, o-xylene, m-xylene, and 10 ppb of NO corresponded to 10.41 (95% CI 1.32-82.41), 4.07 (1.46-11.33), 2.89 (1.08-7.73) and 1.08 (1.00-1.15) increase in the odds of stage I versus non-invasive BC, respectively. Benzene (OR, odds ratio = 1.16, 95% CI 1.01-1.33) and o-xylene (OR = 1.18, 1.02-1.38) were associated with increased odds of incidence of BC stages III & IV versus non-invasive stages. BC stage I and stage III&IV in women living in low SES areas was associated with significantly higher levels of benzene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene, and m-xylene. The highest multiple-air-pollutants quartile was associated with a higher odds of stage I BC (OR = 3.16) in patients under 50 years old. This study provides evidence that exposure to AP is associated with increased BC stage at diagnosis, especially under premenopause age.

Multiple air pollutants exposure and leukaemia incidence in Tehran, Iran from 2010 to 2016: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Leukaemia is one of the most common cancers and may be associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens, especially outdoor air pollutants. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of ambient air pollution and leukaemia in Tehran, Iran. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort study, data about the residential district of leukaemia cases diagnosed from 2010 to 2016 were inquired from the Ministry of Health cancer database. Data from a previous study were used to determine long-term average exposure to different air pollutants in 22 districts of Tehran. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to classify pollutants in two exposure profiles. The association between air pollutants and leukaemia incidence was analysed by negative binomial regression. SETTING: Twenty-two districts of Tehran megacity. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with leukaemia. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome variables were incidence rate ratios (IRR) of acute myeloid and lymphoid leukaemia across the districts of Tehran. RESULTS: The districts with higher concentrations for all pollutants were near the city centre. The IRR was positive but non-significant for most of the air pollutants. However, annual mean NOx was directly and significantly associated with total leukaemia incidence in the fully adjusted model (IRR (95% CI): 1.03 (1.003 to 1.06) per 10 ppb increase). Based on LPA, districts with a higher multiple air-pollutants profile were also associated with higher leukaemia incidence (IRR (95% CI): 1.003 (0.99 to 1.007) per 1 ppb increase). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that districts with higher air pollution (nitrogen oxides and multipollutants) have higher incidence rates of leukaemia in Tehran, Iran. This study warrants conducting further research with individual human data and better control of confounding.

Multiple air pollutant exposure and lung cancer in Tehran, Iran.

Lung cancer is the most rapidly increasing malignancy worldwide with an estimated 2.1 million cancer cases in the latest, 2018 World Health Organization (WHO) report. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of air pollution and lung cancer, in Tehran, Iran. Residential area information of the latest registered lung cancer cases that were diagnosed between 2014 and 2016 (N = 1,850) were inquired from the population-based cancer registry of Tehran. Long-term average exposure to PM10, SO2, NO, NO2, NOX, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene (BTEX), and BTEX in 22 districts of Tehran were estimated using land use regression models. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to generate multi-pollutant exposure profiles. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to examine the association between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence. The districts with higher concentrations for all pollutants were mostly in downtown and around the railway station. Districts with a higher concentration for NOx (IRR = 1.05, for each 10 unit increase in air pollutant), benzene (IRR = 3.86), toluene (IRR = 1.50), ethylbenzene (IRR = 5.16), p-xylene (IRR = 9.41), o-xylene (IRR = 7.93), m-xylene (IRR = 2.63) and TBTEX (IRR = 1.21) were significantly associated with higher lung cancer incidence. Districts with a higher multiple air-pollution profile were also associated with more lung cancer incidence (IRR = 1.01). Our study shows a positive association between air pollution and lung cancer incidence. This association was stronger for, respectively, p-xylene, o-xylene, ethylbenzene, benzene, m-xylene and toluene.