A metapopulation model for highly pathogenic avian influenza: implications for compartmentalization as a control measure.

Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more 'risky' option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.

Identifying the seasonal origins of human campylobacteriosis.

Human campylobacteriosis exhibits a distinctive seasonality in temperate regions. This paper aims to identify the origins of this seasonality. Clinical isolates [typed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)] and epidemiological data were collected from Scotland. Young rural children were found to have an increased burden of disease in the late spring due to strains of non-chicken origin (e.g. ruminant and wild bird strains from environmental sources). In contrast the adult population had an extended summer peak associated with chicken strains. Travel abroad and UK mainland travel were associated with up to 17% and 18% of cases, respectively. International strains were associated with chicken, had a higher diversity than indigenous strains and a different spectrum of MLST types representative of these countries. Integrating empirical epidemiology and molecular subtyping can successfully elucidate the seasonal components of human campylobacteriosis. The findings will enable public health officials to focus strategies to reduce the disease burden.

Field efficacy of praziquantel oral paste against naturally acquired equine cestodes in Ethiopia.

The efficacy of an oral formulation of praziquantel (Equitape, Horse paste, Fort Dodge) in the reduction of cestode egg counts and serum antibody level against Anoplocephala perfoliata was assessed in 44 donkeys under field conditions. The donkeys were confirmed both by faecal examination and serum antibody assessed by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to have natural infection with tapeworms. The donkeys were randomly allocated into treatment (n = 22) and control (n = 22) groups. The treatment group was treated with both praziquantel and ivermectin (Ivomec, Merial) at a dose rate of 1 mg/kg and 200 µg/kg, respectively while the control group was treated only with ivermectin. Faecal samples were collected before treatment (day-0) and 2, 6, 8, 12, and 16 weeks post-treatment while blood samples were collected before treatment and 8 and 16 weeks after treatment and analysed. The results of the study demonstrated that praziquantel paste was highly effective in reducing cestode eggs in donkeys and had an efficacy of more than 99 % until week 16 (day 112). No cestode egg reappearance by 16 weeks post-treatment in any animal in the treatment group was observed while donkeys in the control group continued shedding cestode eggs. The immunological assay also showed a significant reduction in serum antibody level against A. perfoliata in treated donkeys compared to the control group (p = 0.0001). This marked decrease in serum antibody level indicates reduced risk of cestode-associated colic and other gastrointestinal disorders and clinical diseases. No adverse reactions or clinical effects were encountered in any animal within either group throughout the trial period.

From phenotype to genotype: a Bayesian solution.

The study of biological systems commonly depends on inferring the state of a 'hidden' variable, such as an underlying genotype, from that of an 'observed' variable, such as an expressed phenotype. However, this cannot be achieved using traditional quantitative methods when more than one genetic mechanism exists for a single observable phenotype. Using a novel latent class Bayesian model, it is possible to infer the prevalence of different genetic elements in a population given a sample of phenotypes. As an exemplar, data comprising phenotypic resistance to six antimicrobials obtained from passive surveillance of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 are analysed to infer the prevalence of individual resistance genes, as well as the prevalence of a genomic island known as SGI1 and its variants. Three competing models are fitted to the data and distinguished between using posterior predictive p-values to assess their ability to predict the observed number of unique phenotypes. The results suggest that several SGI1 variants circulate in a few fixed forms through the population from which our data were derived. The methods presented could be applied to other types of phenotypic data, and represent a useful and generic mechanism of inferring the genetic population structure of organisms.

Antagonist HIV-1 Gag peptides induce structural changes in HLA B8.

In the cellular immune response, recognition by CTL-TCRs of viral antigens presented as peptides by HLA class I molecules, triggers destruction of the virally infected cell (Townsend, A.R.M., J. Rothbard, F.M. Gotch, G. Bahadur, D. Wraith, and A.J. McMichael. 1986. Cell. 44:959-968). Altered peptide ligands (APLs) which antagonise CTL recognition of infected cells have been reported (Jameson, S.C., F.R. Carbone, and M.J. Bevan. 1993. J. Exp. Med. 177:1541-1550). In one example, lysis of antigen presenting cells by CTLs in response to recognition of an HLA B8-restricted HIV-1 P17 (aa 24-31) epitope can be inhibited by naturally occurring variants of this peptide, which act as TCR antagonists (Klenerman, P., S. Rowland Jones, S. McAdam, J. Edwards, S. Daenke, D. Lalloo, B. Koppe, W. Rosenberg, D. Boyd, A. Edwards, P. Giangrande, R.E. Phillips, and A. McMichael. 1994. Nature (Lond.). 369:403-407). We have characterised two CTL clones and a CTL line whose interactions with these variants of P17 (aa 24-31) exhibit a variety of responses. We have examined the high resolution crystal structures of four of these APLs in complex with HLA B8 to determine alterations in the shape, chemistry, and local flexibility of the TCR binding surface. The variant peptides cause changes in the recognition surface by three mechanisms: changes contributed directly by the peptide, effects transmitted to the exposed peptide surface, and induced effects on the exposed framework of the peptide binding groove. While the first two mechanisms frequently lead to antagonism, the third has more profound effects on TCR recognition.

HLA class I binding motifs derived from random peptide libraries differ at the COOH terminus from those of eluted peptides.

Recombinant HLA-A2, HLA-B8, or HLA-B53 heavy chain produced in Escherichia coli was combined with recombinant beta2-microglobulin (beta2m) and a pool of randomly synthesised nonamer peptides. This mixture was allowed to refold to form stable major histocompatability complex (MHC) class I complexes, which were then purified by gel filtration chromatography. The peptides bound to the MHC class I molecules were subsequently eluted and sequenced as a pool. Peptide binding motifs for these three MHC class I molecules were derived and compared with previously described motifs derived from analysis of naturally processed peptides eluted from the surface of cells. This comparison indicated that the peptides bound by the recombinant MHC class I molecules showed a similar motif to naturally processed and presented peptides, with the exception of the peptide COOH terminus. Whereas the motifs derived from naturally processed peptides eluted from HLA-A2 and HLA-B8 indicated a strong preference for hydrophobic amino acids at the COOH terminus, this preference was not observed in our studies. We propose that this difference reflects the effects of processing or transport on the peptide repertoire available for binding to MHC class I molecules in vivo.

Associations between the presence of virulence determinants and the epidemiology and ecology of zoonotic Escherichia coli.

The severity of human infection with pathogenic Escherichia coli depends on two major virulence determinants (eae and stx) that, respectively, produce intimin and Shiga toxin. In cattle, both may enhance colonization, but whether this increases fitness by enhancing cattle-to-cattle transmission in the field is unknown. In E. coli O157, the almost uniform presence of the virulence determinants in cattle isolates prevents comparative analysis. The availability to this study of extensive non-O157 E. coli data, with much greater diversity in carriage of virulence determinants, provides the opportunity to gain insight into their potential impact on transmission. Dynamic models were used to simulate expected prevalence distributions for serogroups O26 and O103. Transmission parameters were estimated by fitting model outputs to prevalence data from Scottish cattle using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. Despite similar prevalence distributions for O26 and O103, their transmission dynamics were distinct. Serogroup O26 strains appear well adapted to the cattle host. The dynamics are characterized by a basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) of >1 (allowing sustained cattle-to-cattle transmission), a relatively low transmission rate from environmental reservoirs, and substantial association with eae on transmission. The presence of stx(2) was associated with reduced transmission. In contrast, serogroup O103 appears better adapted to the noncattle environment, characterized by an R(0) value of <1 for plausible test sensitivities, a significantly higher transmission rate from noncattle sources than serogroup O26, and an absence of fitness benefits associated with the carriage of eae. Thus, the association of eae with enhanced transmission depends on the E. coli serogroup. Our results suggest that the capacity of E. coli strains to derive fitness benefits from virulence determinants influences the prevalence in the cattle population and the ecology and epidemiology of the host organism.

Putative household outbreaks of campylobacteriosis typically comprise single MLST genotypes.

During a 15-month period in Scotland a small but important number of human Campylobacter cases (3·2%) arose from 91 putative household outbreaks. Of the 26 outbreaks with known strain composition, 89% were composed of the same MLST which supports the potential use of MLST in public health epidemiology. The number of cases associated with household outbreaks is much larger than general outbreaks and there is some evidence to indicate that there may be secondary transmission, although this is relatively rare.

Gastrointestinal parasites of working donkeys of Ethiopia.

The general prevalence and population composition of gastrointestinal and pulmonary helminths of working donkeys were studied. For the purpose 2935 working donkeys were coprologically examined for nematode and cestode, and 215 donkeys for trematode infections. Seven donkeys that died due to various health problems or were euthanased on a welfare ground were necropsied and the parasites were recovered and identified to the species level. The study was conducted during the periods 1996-1999.Coprological examination revealed 99% strongyle, 80% Fasciola, 51% Parascaris, 30% Gastrodiscus, 11% Strongyloides westeri, 8% cestodes and 2% Oxyuris equi infection prevalence. Over 55% of donkeys had more than 1000 eggs per gram of faeces (epg). Forty two different species of parasites consisting of 33 nematodes, 3 trematodes, 3 cestodes and 3 arthropod larvae were identified from postmortem examined donkeys. Among the nematodes 17 species of Cyathostominae and 7 species of Strongylinae were identified. Other parasites identified include, Habronema muscae, Draschia megastoma, Trichostrongylus axei, Strongyloides westeri, Anoplocephala perfoliata, Anoplocephala magna, Anoplocephaloides (Paranoplocephala) mamillana, Parascaris equorum, Fasciola hepatica, Fasciola gigantica, Gastrodiscus aegyptiacus, Dictyocaulus arnfieldi, Oxyuris equi, Probstmayria vivipara, Gasterophilus intestinalis, Gasterophilus nasalis, Rhinoestrus uzbekistanicus and Setaria equina. This study revealed that working donkeys in Ethiopia are infected with a range of helminths and arthropod larvae, which are representatives of the important pathogenic parasites found in equids worldwide.

Prevalence and distribution of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus within the environment and staff of a university veterinary clinic.

OBJECTIVES: To characterise the distribution of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus within the environment of a university small animal hospital and compare this with the distribution among staff. METHODS: Samples were collected from 140 environmental sites and the anterior nares of 64 staff members at the University of Glasgow Small Animal Hospital on a single day (d1). Sixty of the environmental sites were resampled 14 days later (d14). RESULTS: Meticillin-resistant S aureus was isolated from two of 140 (1.4 per cent; 95 per cent confidence interval: 1.7 to 5.1) environmental sites on d1 and one of 60 (1.7 per cent; 95 per cent confidence interval: 0.4 to 8.9) on d14. Two of the 64 staff sampled were positive for meticillin-resistant S aureus (3.1 per cent; 95 per cent confidence interval: 0.4 to 8.4). CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: A lower prevalence of meticillin-resistant S aureus was observed in the environment than previously reported. The location, relatedness between isolates and the presence of Panton-Valentine leucocidin indicates that the source of the environmental meticillin-resistant S aureus was most likely to have been human rather than animal in these cases. This study presents important information regarding the potential source and distribution of meticillin-resistant S aureus within veterinary hospital environments and highlights potential variability of prevalence of meticillin-resistant S aureus within and between veterinary institutions.

Factors associated with cross-contamination of hides of Scottish cattle by Escherichia coli O157.

The putative source of hide contamination for 236 cattle in Scotland followed from the farm through to slaughter was determined using phage and verocytotoxin type data. The majority of cattle (84%) were found to have subtypes of Escherichia coli O157 on their hide that had not been found previously in any animal from the farm of origin, strongly suggesting that contamination occurred once animals had left the farm of origin. Using logistic regression analysis, several variables and factors were found to be strongly associated (P < 0.01) with cross-contamination of cattle hides at the univariate level; commercial transport to slaughter, transport with other animals, use of a crush, line automation, and increasing slaughterhouse throughput were all risk factors, while feeding hay in lairage, processing an animal earlier in a slaughter cohort, and cleaning the landing area poststunning were protective. In the multivariable model, with the slaughterhouse and the farm group included as random effects, factors associated with the cross-contamination of cattle hides were identified. Transport to the slaughterhouse by a commercial hauler had a borderline-significant association with increased odds of an animal having a cross-contaminated hide (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 5.7 [0.99, 33.0]; P = 0.05). At the slaughterhouse, providing hay to cattle waiting in lairage (OR [95% CI] = 0.04 [<0.01, 1.04]; P = 0.05) and cleaning the landing area (OR [95% CI] = 0.03 [<0.01, 1.15,]; P = 0.06) also had a borderline-significant association with decreased odds of an animal having a cross-contaminated hide. Although the prevalence of carcass contamination remains very low, targeted intervention at the preslaughter stage may have the potential to reduce further the risk to public health.

The distribution of the pathogenic nematode Nematodirus battus in lambs is zero-inflated.

Understanding the frequency distribution of parasites and parasite stages among hosts is essential for efficient experimental design and statistical analysis, and is also required for the development of sustainable methods of controlling infection. Nematodirus battus is one of the most important organisms that infect sheep but the distribution of parasites among hosts is unknown. An initial analysis indicated a high frequency of animals without N. battus and with zero egg counts, suggesting the possibility of a zero-inflated distribution. We developed a Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters of the zero-inflated negative binomial distribution. The analysis of 3000 simulated data sets indicated that this method out-performed the maximum likelihood procedure. Application of this technique to faecal egg counts from lambs in a commercial upland flock indicated that N. battus counts were indeed zero-inflated. Estimating the extent of zero-inflation is important for effective statistical analysis and for the accurate identification of genetically resistant animals.

Incidence rate of musculoskeletal injuries and determinants of time to recovery in young Australian Thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence rate of musculoskeletal (MS) injuries and investigate the factors that influence recovery from MS injury in young Thoroughbred horses in Australia. METHODS: Training and injury data were collected at fortnightly intervals from 14 trainers in New South Wales. Incidence rates were calculated for initial injuries stratified by age-class and sex. Survival analysis methods were used to investigate the time to recovery after the first MS injury (measured as a start in a race or barrier trial). RESULTS: For the 248 racehorses enrolled, there were 428 injuries recorded; 2-year-olds were 2.99-fold more likely than 3-year-olds to sustain an MS injury. The cumulative percentage of horses that had recovered within 6 months was 55%. The time to recovery was longest in horses whose fast gallop speed prior to injury was < 890 m/min. CONCLUSION: This study supports the finding that shin soreness is the most common MS injury in young Australian Thoroughbreds. There was an increased rate of MS injury in 2-year-olds compared with 3-year-olds. However, it was impossible to determine if the increased risk in 2-year-olds was related to age, the start of training or a combination of both. The study also found that horses performing at higher exercise speeds prior to injury were more likely to recover. There was a significant effect of trainer, suggesting that other factors related to trainer may influence the time to the recovery. Additional research is required to understand the determinants of time to recovery.

Profiling training preparation in young Australian Thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the impact of age, sex, and musculoskeletal (MS) injury on three preparation-level measures of performance: (i) the duration of preparation, (ii) time from the beginning of the preparation until the first start in a race or barrier trial, and (iii) time from the first start until the end of the preparation. METHODS: Daily training and injury data for 2- and 3-year old Thoroughbred racehorses were collected fortnightly from 14 trainers in NSW, Australia. Training data were aggregated into units referred to as 'preparations'. Univariate and multivariate analytical methods were used to examine the associations between the explanatory variables and each of the measures of performance. RESULTS: There were 1274 preparations recorded in 451 horses. Younger horses had a shorter interval from the first start in a race or barrier trial to the end of the preparation. MS injury was not conditionally associated with any of the outcomes. CONCLUSION: MS injuries in young racehorses have limited impact on long-term performance, although care must be taken in interpreting the results because they could be confounded by variables not considered in this analysis. This study also begins to unravel the complicated relationship between age and previous exposure to training, with results supporting the hypothesis that the intensity of training increases with increasing age.

Germ line transmission of an inactive N-myc allele generated by homologous recombination in mouse embryonic stem cells.

We have disrupted one allele of the N-myc locus in mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells by using homologous recombination techniques and have obtained germ line transmission of null N-myc ES cell lines with transmission of the null N-myc allele to the offspring. The creation of mice with a deficient N-myc allele will allow the generation of offspring bearing null N-myc alleles in both chromosomes and permit study of the role that this proto-oncogene plays in embryonic development.

Risk factors for hide contamination of Scottish cattle at slaughter with Escherichia coli O157.

In the slaughter processing of cattle, contaminated hides have been identified as one of the major sources of Escherichia coli O157 carcase contamination. Logistic regression analysis was applied to data collected in a large scale study in Scotland involving 222 cattle forming 34 groups sent for slaughter from 30 farms to 10 slaughterhouses. Aspects of individual animal characteristics, farm management practices and slaughterhouse features were examined to identify potential risk factors for hide contamination at harvest. Two models were developed, the first in which slaughterhouse was modelled as a fixed effect, and a second model where slaughterhouse and farm groups were modelled as random effects. In the first model, there was a significantly increased risk of a carcase testing positive for E. coli O157 on the hide if either the hide of the carcase immediately before or after it on the line was contaminated (OR 3.6; 95% CI: 1.4-9.9). If both adjacent carcases had contaminated hides, the odds ratio for the study carcase having a contaminated hide rose to 11.5 (95% CI: 4.4-32.5). If animals were held in lairage, receiving hay as feed appeared to have a protective effect on hide contamination. Transportation to the slaughterhouse by haulier, as opposed to transport by the farmer, was associated with a 5.4 increase in the odds of E. coli O157 contamination. The use of a crush in the lairage, often employed when reading ear tags, was also found to significantly increase the odds of hide contamination with E. coli O157. In the second model, the inclusion of slaughterhouse and farm group as random effects resulted in two of the previously identified factors being associated with hide contamination. If at least one of the adjacent carcases on the line had a contaminated hide, the associated odds ratio was 6.6 (95% CI: 2.8-15.9), which rose to 22.7 (95% CI: 9.3-55.5) if both adjacent hides were contaminated. Receiving hay in lairage was found to be important to the model, although not significant in itself (OR 0.005; 95% CI: 1.2e(-6)-20.7). These results suggest that modifiable risk factors for hide contamination exist. However, in order best to reduce the prevalence of hide contamination at slaughter, individual slaughterhouse risk assessment and intervention strategies are appropriate.

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 1: Horse demographic characteristics and management.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Information is scarce as to how horses are kept and managed in the general horse population of Great Britain. OBJECTIVES: To characterise the demographics of horses in Great Britain and assess their care (with particular reference to the respiratory system). METHODS: Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire. These owners were selected randomly, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. RESULTS: The overall response proportion to the survey was 68.2%. An investigation of nonresponse bias detected minimal differences between responders and nonresponders. A summary of the demographic characteristics, feeding and management of horses in a sample of the general population of Great Britain is presented. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Horses are kept under a great variety of conditions with some potentially exposed to high concentrations of organic dusts associated with stabling. This information is relevant to their health and welfare.

A survey of horse owners in Great Britain regarding horses in their care. Part 2: Risk factors for recurrent airway obstruction.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is a commonly encountered respiratory condition of horses. Despite this, the epidemiology of this predominately manageable and reversible disease in Great Britain has been largely ignored. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of RAO in the general horse population of Great Britain and to investigate possible risk factors for RAO associated with management or early life. METHODS: Horse owners were surveyed using a self-administered postal questionnaire that contained a risk-screening questionnaire (RSQ) designed to identify horses with RAO. These owners were randomly selected, following geographical stratification, using 2-stage cluster sampling of veterinary practices and their clients. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate risk factors for RAO in the selected horse population. RESULTS: The estimated true prevalence of RAO in the selected horse population was 14.0% (95%CI 10.7-17.4%). Risk factors for RAO identified in a general horse management logistic regression model included increasing age and exposure to an urbanised environment. Recurrent airway obstruction has long been associated with mature horses while the association with an urbanised environment could be related to different management practices in these areas or possibly air pollution could be involved. The second model associated exposure to hay and respiratory infection in early life with a horse having RAO in later life. Challenges to the respiratory system in early life may be involved in the development of this disease. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Recurrent airway obstruction is a significant health problem in the horse population of Great Britain. This form of epidemiological investigation highlights potential risk factors for the disease.

Incisional complications following exploratory celiotomy: does an abdominal bandage reduce the risk?

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Post operative complications following exploratory laparotomy can be potentially life-threatening, increase post operative morbidity and result in an increase in the length of hospitalisation of the affected individual. No study has evaluated the efficacy of specific strategies to reduce the incidence of post operative incisional complications. HYPOTHESIS: The use of an abdominal bandage following colic surgery through a celiotomy incision would significantly reduce the prevalence of post operative incisional complications. METHODS: A controlled, randomised clinical trial to test the hypothesis was devised. Horses eligible for inclusion in the study were assigned randomly either to the study or control group following recovery from general anaesthesia. Any post operative incisional complications occurring during hospitalisation were recorded. Long-term follow-up was obtained via telephone questionnaires. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) and number needed to treat (NNT) were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted for all outcomes of interest. RESULTS: There was an ARR of the likelihood of developing a post operative incisional complication of 45% when using compared to not using an abdominal bandage in the post operative period. Therefore, it would be necessary to treat 2.2 horses with an abdominal bandage in order to prevent one horse developing any post operative incisional complications. CONCLUSIONS: Although incisional complications continue to be a problem following an exploratory celiotomy for colic, the proportion of horses affected was significantly reduced by use of a bandage. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Using an abdominal bandage following an exploratory laparotomy may help reduce the prevalence of post operative incisional complications, and prevent the development of potentially life-threatening complications.