Non-antigen-specific Immunoadsorption Is a Risk Factor for Severe Postoperative Infections in ABO-Incompatible Kidney Transplant Recipients.

ABO-incompatible (ABOi) living kidney transplantation (KTx) is an established procedure to address the demand for kidney transplants with outcomes comparable to ABO-compatible KTx. Desensitization involves the use of immunoadsorption (IA) to eliminate preformed antibodies against the allograft. This monocentric retrospective study compares single-use antigen-selective Glycosorb® ABO columns to reusable non-antigen-specific Immunosorba® immunoglobulin adsorption columns regarding postoperative infectious complications and outcome. It includes all 138 ABOi KTx performed at Freiburg Transplant Center from 2004-2020. We compare 81 patients desensitized using antigen-specific columns (sIA) to 57 patients who received IA using non-antigen-specific columns (nsIA). We describe distribution of infections, mortality and allograft survival in both groups and use Cox proportional hazards regression to test for the association of IA type with severe infections. Desensitization with nsIA tripled the risk of severe postoperative infections (adjusted HR 3.08, 95% CI: 1.3-8.1) compared to sIA. nsIA was associated with significantly more recurring (21.4% vs. 6.2%) and severe infections (28.6% vs. 8.6%), mostly in the form of urosepsis. A significantly higher proportion of patients with sIA suffered from allograft rejection (29.6% vs. 14.0%). However, allograft survival was comparable. nsIA is associated with a two-fold risk of developing a severe postoperative infection after ABOi KTx.

[Video-Assisted Psychotherapy For Refugees: A Pilot Study]. / Videogestützte Psychotherapie für Geflüchtete: Eine Pilotstudie.

OBJECTIVE: Global conflicts and humanitarian crises led to an increase in forced migration to Germany in recent years. To improve the mental health care system for refugees and asylum seekers in Germany perspectively, we aim to examine the feasibility of implementing the culturally sensitive group psychotherapy Empowerment for refugees with affective disorders in a video-assisted setting. METHODS: Empowerment is a culturally sensitive, interpreter-assisted intervention for the treatment of depressive and stress-related symptoms in refugees. Four male refugees from Afghanistan participated in a pilot study. The intervention included 16 modules delivered via video over a 12-week period. RESULTS: The internet connection was frequently unstable and led to organizational challenges. The therapy was feasible in terms of linguistic and interactional aspects. DISCUSSION: The stability of the internet connection represents the major criterion for a successful implementation of the therapy. Implications for future studies are discussed. CONCLUSION: Regarding the potential opportunities to improve the mental health care provision to refugees and asylum seekers in the future, the video-assisted therapy concept could be investigated in a randomized controlled trial.

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment in SARS-CoV-2 positive kidney transplant recipients - a case series with four patients.

BACKGROUND: Despite vaccination coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated mortality caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains high in kidney transplant recipients. Nirmatrelvir is a protease inhibitor with activity against SARS-CoV-2. Nirmatrelvir reduces the risk for mortality and hospitalization, which is approved for treating adults at risk for severe disease. Nirmatrelvir is metabolized by the cytochrome P-450 (CYP) 3A4 isozyme CYP3A4 and is therefore co-administered with the irreversible CYP3A4 inhibitor ritonavir, which results in a drug interaction with tacrolimus. A limited number of patients with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and tacrolimus therapy after kidney transplantation have been reported to date. It has been reported that tacrolimus was paused during the five-day nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy and subtherapeutic tacrolimus levels were observed after finishing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in two patients. Therefore, optimization of tacrolimus dosing is urgently needed in transplant recipients receiving nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment. CASE PRESENTATION: Here, we present our first-hand experience with four patients receiving tacrolimus therapy following kidney transplantation and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy due to COVID-19. Tacrolimus was paused during nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy in all patients, which resulted in stable therapeutic tacrolimus levels. Tacrolimus was continued directly after finishing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir to avoid subtherapeutic levels in the first patient treated. This patient received his usual tacrolimus maintenance dose, which resulted in toxic levels. Based on this observation, tacrolimus therapy was continued 24 h after finishing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment at a reduced dose in the subsequent patients. In these patients, therapeutic to supratherapeutic tacrolimus levels were observed despite the therapeutic break and dose reduction. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Based on altered CYP3A4 metabolism, tacrolimus levels have to be closely monitored after treatment with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Our study suggests that tacrolimus treatment should be paused during nirmatrelvir/ritonavir medication and be continued 24 h after completing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy at a reduced dose and under close monitoring. Based on the limited number of patients in this study, results must be interpreted with caution.

Toward Understanding COVID-19 Recovery: National Institutes of Health Workshop on Postacute COVID-19.

Over the past year, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has swept the globe, resulting in an enormous worldwide burden of infection and mortality. However, the additional toll resulting from long-term consequences of the pandemic has yet to be tallied. Heterogeneous disease manifestations and syndromes are now recognized among some persons after their initial recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection, representing in the broadest sense a failure to return to a baseline state of health after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. On 3 to 4 December 2020, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in collaboration with other Institutes and Centers of the National Institutes of Health, convened a virtual workshop to summarize existing knowledge on postacute COVID-19 and to identify key knowledge gaps regarding this condition.

Decision-support systems for ambulatory care, including pandemic requirements: using mathematically optimized solutions.

BACKGROUND: The healthcare sector poses many strategic, tactic and operational planning questions. Due to the historically grown structures, planning is often locally confined and much optimization potential is foregone. METHODS: We implemented optimized decision-support systems for ambulatory care for four different real-world case studies that cover a variety of aspects in terms of planning scope and decision support tools. All are based on interactive cartographic representations and are being developed in cooperation with domain experts. The planning problems that we present are the problem of positioning centers for vaccination against Covid-19 (strategical) and emergency doctors (strategical/tactical), the out-of-hours pharmacy planning problem (tactical), and the route planning of patient transport services (operational). For each problem, we describe the planning question, give an overview of the mathematical model and present the implemented decision support application. RESULTS: Mathematical optimization can be used to model and solve these planning problems. However, in order to convince decision-makers of an alternative solution structure, mathematical solutions must be comprehensible and tangible. Appealing and interactive decision-support tools can be used in practice to convince public health experts of the benefits of an alternative solution. The more strategic the problem and the less sensitive the data, the easier it is to put a tool into practice. CONCLUSIONS: Exploring solutions interactively is rarely supported in existing planning tools. However, in order to bring new innovative tools into productive use, many hurdles must be overcome.

[Renal manifestations in vasculitides of small and medium-sized vessels]. / Nierenmanifestationen bei Vaskulitiden kleiner und mittelgroßer Gefäße.

Small-vessel vasculitides, in particular, are frequently manifested in the kidneys. A distinction is made between antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitides (AAV) and immune complex vasculitides. Even within the AAVs there are differences with respect to renal involvement, which manifest as necrotizing glomerulonephritis (GN) but renal involvement is much rarer in eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis than in microscopic polyangiitis and granulomatosis with polyangiitis. Disease progression, organ manifestation and prognosis vary according to the ANCA status. In immune complex vasculitides (cryoglobulinemic vasculitis, IgA vasculitis, hypocomplementemic urticarial vasculitis and antiglomerular basement membrane, GBM, disease), endothelial-adjacent activation of neutrophilic granulocytes leads to local vessel wall damage with subsequent ischemic tissue damage, similar to AAV. The sparse evidence of immune complexes is different in pauci-immune AAV. Polyarteritis nodosa is a disease with variable clinical presentations with necrotizing vasculitis of small and medium-sized arteries. Intrarenal aneurysms and hemorrhages but not GN lead to renal damage. Diagnostically, the detection of specific autoantibodies (e.g. anti-GBM), cryoglobulins or increased complement turnover can be decisive. Renal biopsy with qualified immunohistopathology is particularly important in cases of initial manifestation and unclear constellation of findings. The treatment of renal vasculitis is adapted to the severity, stage of disease, extrarenal organ manifestation and pathogenesis. It ranges from glucocorticoid monotherapy to moderate immunosuppression, up to targeted biologic therapy, chemotherapy and plasmapheresis.

Refocusing Human Microbiota Research in Infectious and Immune-mediated Diseases: Advancing to the Next Stage.

Changes in the microbiota are associated with disease susceptibility, immune system development, and responses to treatment. Refocusing research to elucidate the causal links between the human microbiota and infectious and immune-mediated diseases will be critical to harnessing its power to prevent, diagnose, and treat such diseases.

Two cases of carfilzomib-induced thrombotic microangiopathy successfully treated with Eculizumab in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with proteasome inhibitors like carfilzomib in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) can induce thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) characterized by neurological symptoms, acute kidney injury, hemolysis and thrombocytopenia. Successful treatment with the monoclonal antibody eculizumab was described for these patients, but reports of ideal management and definitive treatment protocols are lacking. CASE PRESENTATION: The first case describes a 43-years-old IgG-kappa-MM patient that developed TMA during the first course of carfilzomib-lenalidomide-dexamethasone (KRd) consolidation after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). In the second case, a 59-years-old IgG-kappa-MM patient showed late-onset TMA during the fourth and last cycle of elotuzumab-KRd consolidation within the DSMM XVII study of the German study group MM (DSMM; clinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03948035). Concurrently, he suffered from influenza A/B infection. Both patients had a high TMA-index for a poor prognosis of TMA. Therapeutically, in both patients plasma exchange (TPE) was initiated as soon as TMA was diagnosed. In patient #1, dialysis became necessary. For both patients, only when the complement inhibitor eculizumab was administered, kidney function and blood values impressively improved. CONCLUSION: In this small case series, two patients with MM developed TMA due to carfilzomib treatment (CFZ-TMA), the second patient as a late-onset form. Even though TMA could have been elicited by influenza in the second patient and occurred after ASCT in both patients, with cases of TMA post-transplantation in MM being described, a relation of TMA and carfilzomib treatment was most likely. In both patients, treatment with eculizumab over two months efficiently treated TMA without recurrence and with both patients remaining responsive months after TMA onset. Taken together, we describe two cases of TMA in MM patients on carfilzomib-combination treatment, showing similar courses of this severe adverse reaction, with good responses to two months of eculizumab treatment.

Psychosocial emergency care in times of COVID-19: the Essen University Hospital concept for corona-infected patients, their relatives, and medical staff.

Due to the SARS CoV-2-virus (COVID-19), anxiety, distress, and insecurity occur more frequently. In particular, infected individuals, their relatives, and medical staff face an increased risk of high psychological distress as a result of the ongoing pandemic. Thus, structured psychosocial emergency concepts are needed. The University hospital of Essen has taken up this challenge by creating the PEC concept to reduce psychosocial long-term consequences for infected patients, relatives, and medical staff at the university hospital. The concept includes professional medical as well as psychological support to convey constructive coping strategies and the provision of adequate tools such as the low-threshold online training program (CoPE It), which is accessible via the webpage www.cope-corona.de .

Quantifying Covid19-vaccine location strategies for Germany.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines are an important tool to limit the health and economic damage of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several vaccine candidates already provided promising effectiveness data, but it is crucial for an effective vaccination campaign that people are willing and able to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Taking Germany as an example, we provide insights of using a mathematical approach for the planning and location of vaccination sites to optimally administer vaccines against Covid-19. METHODS: We used mathematical programming for computing an optimal selection of vaccination sites out of a given set (i.e., university hospitals, health department related locations and general practices). Different patient-to-facility assignments and doctor-to-facility assignments and different constraints on the number of vaccinees per site or maximum travel time are used. RESULTS: In order to minimize the barriers for people to get vaccinated, i.e., limit the one-way travel journey (airline distance) by around 35 km for 75% of the population (with a maximum of 70 km), around 80 well-positioned facilities can be enough. If only the 38 university hospitals are being used, the 75% distance increases to around 50 km (with a maximum of 145 km). Using all 400 health departments or all 56 000 general practices can decrease the journey length significantly, but comes at the price of more required staff and possibly wastage of only partially used vaccine containers. CONCLUSIONS: In the case of free assignments, the number of required physicians can in most scenarios be limited to 2 000, which is also the minimum with our assumptions. However, when travel distances for the patients are to be minimized, capacities of the facilities must be respected, or administrative assignments are prespecified, an increased number of physicians is unavoidable.

Simultaneous ipsilateral nephrectomy during kidney transplantation in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a matched pair analysis of 193 consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: In end-stage renal transplant recipients with autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), the imperative, optimal timing, and technique of native nephrectomy remains under discussion. The Freiburg Transplant Center routinely performs a simultaneous ipsilateral nephrectomy. METHODS: From April 1998 to May 2017, we retrospectively analyzed 193 consecutive ADPKD recipients, receiving per protocol simultaneous ipsilateral nephrectomy and compared morbidity, mortality, and outcome with 193 non-ADPKD recipients of a matched pair control. RESULTS: The incidence of surgical complications was similar with respect to severe medical, surgical, urological, vascular, and wound-related complications as well as reoperation rates and 30-day mortality. Intraoperative blood transfusions were required more often in the ADPKD (22.8%) compared with the control group (6.7%; p < 0.0001). Early postoperative urinary tract infections occurred more frequent (ADPKD 40.4%/control 29.0%; p = 0.0246). Time of surgery was prolonged by 30 min (ADPKD 169 min; 95%CI 159.8-175.6 min/control 139 min; 95%CI 131.4-145.0 min; p < 0.0001). One-year patient (ADPKD 96.4%/control 95.8%; p = 0.6537) and death-censored graft survival (ADPKD 94.8%/control 93.7%; p = 0.5479) were comparable between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: With respect to morbidity and mortality, per protocol, simultaneous native nephrectomy is a safe procedure. Especially in asymptomatic ADPKD KTx recipients, the number of total operations can be reduced and residual diuresis preserved up until transplantation. In living donation, even preemptive transplantation is possible.

Lipid Apheresis to Manage Severe Hypertriglyceridemia during Induction Therapy in a Child with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia.

PEG asparaginase is an important and established drug in the treatment of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Severe hypertriglyceridemia is a rare complication of PEG asparaginase in combination with glucocorticoids. We report a case of excessive hypertriglyceridemia in a child during ALL induction therapy successfully treated by lipid apheresis and give a literature review on the management of hypertriglyceridemia in children treated for ALL.

Myeloperoxidase Mediates Postischemic Arrhythmogenic Ventricular Remodeling.

RATIONALE: Ventricular arrhythmias remain the leading cause of death in patients suffering myocardial ischemia. Myeloperoxidase, a heme enzyme released by polymorphonuclear neutrophils, accumulates within ischemic myocardium and has been linked to adverse left ventricular remodeling. OBJECTIVE: To reveal the role of myeloperoxidase for the development of ventricular arrhythmias. METHODS AND RESULTS: In different murine models of myocardial ischemia, myeloperoxidase deficiency profoundly decreased vulnerability for ventricular tachycardia on programmed right ventricular and burst stimulation and spontaneously as assessed by ECG telemetry after isoproterenol injection. Experiments using CD11b/CD18 integrin-deficient (CD11b-/-) mice and intravenous myeloperoxidase infusion revealed that neutrophil infiltration is a prerequisite for myocardial myeloperoxidase accumulation. Ventricles from myeloperoxidase-deficient (Mpo-/-) mice showed less pronounced slowing and decreased heterogeneity of electric conduction in the peri-infarct zone than wild-type mice. Expression of the redox-sensitive gap junctional protein Cx43 (Connexin 43) was reduced in the peri-infarct area of wild-type compared with Mpo-/- mice. In isolated wild-type cardiomyocytes, Cx43 protein content decreased on myeloperoxidase/H2O2 incubation. Mapping of induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte networks and in vivo investigations linked Cx43 breakdown to myeloperoxidase-dependent activation of matrix metalloproteinase 7. Moreover, Mpo-/- mice showed decreased ventricular postischemic fibrosis reflecting reduced accumulation of myofibroblasts. Ex vivo, myeloperoxidase was demonstrated to induce fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transdifferentiation by activation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinases resulting in upregulated collagen generation. In support of our experimental findings, baseline myeloperoxidase plasma levels were independently associated with a history of ventricular arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in a cohort of 2622 stable patients with an ejection fraction >35% undergoing elective diagnostic cardiac evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Myeloperoxidase emerges as a crucial mediator of postischemic myocardial remodeling and may evolve as a novel pharmacological target for secondary disease prevention after myocardial ischemia.

Comparing modalities of conducting the six-minute walk test in healthy children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) in children can be performed in the conventional way, or by using a measuring wheel. This study aimed to compare these test modalities and to determine influencing factors. METHODS: The study included 317 healthy children (172 boys) between 6 and 15 years from elementary schools and high schools, who were randomly assigned to perform a 6MWT either with or without a measuring wheel according to the guidelines of the American Thoracic Society. The 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) was compared between the two measuring modalities as well as different school types. RESULTS: The use of a measuring wheel during the 6MWT led to a significantly greater 6MWD compared to conventional walking. Students of sports schools walked substantially farther than those attending general high schools, irrespective of test modality. In multivariate regression analysis height, post-test heart rate, male sex and the measuring wheel itself were all independently associated with greater 6MWD. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a measuring wheel during a 6MWT reflects physical performance in children and adolescents more accurately as it includes the stretch of way around the cones during lap turns. Test modalities and sports background should be taken into account, especially when performing longitudinal monitoring and multicenter studies.

Functional Recovery of a Human Neonatal Heart After Severe Myocardial Infarction.

RATIONALE: Cardiac remodeling and subsequent heart failure remain critical issues after myocardial infarction despite improved treatment and reperfusion strategies. Recently, cardiac regeneration has been demonstrated in fish and newborn mice after apex resection or cardiac infarctions. Two key issues remain to translate findings in model organisms to future therapies in humans: what is the mechanism and can cardiac regeneration indeed occur in newborn humans? OBJECTIVE: To assess whether human neonatal hearts can functionally recover after myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Here, we report the case of a newborn child having a severe myocardial infarction due to coronary artery occlusion. The child developed massive cardiac damage as defined by serum markers for cardiomyocyte cell death, electrocardiograms, echocardiography, and cardiac angiography. Remarkably, within weeks after the initial ischemic insult, we observed functional cardiac recovery, which translated into long-term normal heart function. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that, similar to neonatal rodents, newborn humans might have the intrinsic capacity to repair myocardial damage and completely recover cardiac function.

Predictors of Intraoperative Blood Transfusion in Free Tissue Transfer.

Background Free tissue transfer has become a safe and reliable procedure and is routinely used in a variety of settings. However, it is associated with lengthy operating times and a high potential for blood loss and consecutive red blood cell transfusions (RBCTs). Methods To assess the risk for RBCTs, we retrospectively identified 398 patients undergoing free tissue transfer between 2005 and 2014. Based on a multivariate model of risk factors and their respective odds ratio, a risk score was developed to predict the likelihood of the need for intraoperative RBCT. Results The median age at the time of operation was 51.3 ± 15 years, and 278 (70%) patients were male. The average body mass index was 25.9 ± 4 and the median ASA score was 2 (range: 1-4). Mean duration of surgery was 319.8 ± 108 minutes and mean duration of hospital stay was 45.8 ± 40 days. A total of 231 patients (58%) required perioperative RBCTs, all of which were allogenic. RBCTs were performed 0 to 48 hours preoperatively in 36 patients (11.3%), intraoperatively in 166 patients (41.7%), and 0 to 48 hours postoperatively in 125 patients (31.4%). The mean amount of overall RBCTs given was 2.5 ± 3.7 units and 1.1 ± 1.9 units for intraoperative transfusions. The following risk factors were statistically significant in the multivariate regression analysis and included in the risk score: age >60 years; a preoperative hemoglobin concentration of <11 g/dL; a preoperative platelet count of >400/nL; history of renal (RI) and cardial insufficiency (CI); defect localization on the proximal extremities, head and neck, or trunk; and the use of myocutaneous flaps. This score assessed the risk for RBCTs with a sensitivity of 77%, a specificity of 81%, and an AUC of the ROC curve of 0.86. Conclusion We were able to develop a risk score that allows for the assessment of RBCT likelihood. While most of the identified risk factors cannot be prevented or corrected, it still allows for improved patient counseling and can potentially reduce the number of ordered but not transfused RBCTs.

Sex-, age-, and height-specific reference curves for the 6-min walk test in healthy children and adolescents.

UNLABELLED: The 6-min walk test is a simple and accurate method to measure functional exercise capacity in children. We provide smooth reference curves for the modified 6-min walk test in 696 healthy children and adolescents aged 4-19 years, enabling calculation of sex-, age-, and height-specific Z-scores. CONCLUSION: These reference curves will allow more accurate grading of mobility and exercise capacity in sick or disabled children and monitoring the effects of intervention or treatment.

Interventional Management of Vascular Complications after Renal Transplantation. / Interventionelle Therapieoptionen vaskulärer Komplikationen nach Nierentransplantation.

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantations are increasing due to demographic changes and are the treatment of choice for end-stage renal disease. Non-vascular and vascular complications may occur in the early phase after transplantation and at later stages. Overall postoperative complications after renal transplantations occur in approximately 12 % to 25 % of renal transplant patients. In these cases, minimally invasive therapeutic interventions are essential to ensure long-term graft function. This review article focuses on the most critical vascular complications after renal transplantation and highlights current recommendations for interventional treatment. METHOD: A literature search was performed in PubMed using the search terms "kidney transplantation", "complications", and "interventional treatment". Furthermore, the 2022 annual report of the German Foundation for Organ Donation and the EAU guidelines for kidney transplantation (European Association of Urology) were considered. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Image-guided interventional techniques are favorable compared with surgical revision and should be used primarily for the treatment of vascular complications. The most common vascular complications after renal transplantation are arterial stenoses (3 %-12.5 %), followed by arterial and venous thromboses (0.1 %-8.2 %) and dissection (0.1 %). Less frequently, arteriovenous fistulas or pseudoaneurysms occur. In these cases, minimally invasive interventions show a low complication rate and good technical and clinical results. Diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up should be performed in an interdisciplinary approach at highly specialized centers to ensure the preservation of graft function. Surgical revision should be considered only after exhausting minimally invasive therapeutic strategies. KEY POINTS: · Vascular complications after renal transplantation occur in 3 % to 15 % of patients.. · Image-guided interventional procedures should be performed primarily to treat vascular complications of renal transplantation.. · Minimally invasive interventions have a low complication rate with good technical and clinical outcomes.. CITATION FORMAT: · Verloh N, Doppler M, Hagar MT et al. Interventional Management of Vascular Complications after Renal Transplantation. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2023; 195: 495 - 504.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1-4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models' forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models' past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models' forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models' forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models' forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1-4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

Effect of Cyclophosphamide and Glucocorticoid Therapy in IgA Nephropathy: A Single-Center Retrospective Analysis.

Background: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerulonephritis in adults, which causes ESKD in ≤45% of patients in the long term. The optimal therapeutic approach remains undetermined. In this study, we report the results of a single-center retrospective analysis of patients with IgAN. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated the therapeutic approach and outcome of all patients at our center with biopsy-proven IgAN between 2000 and 2020, focusing on the effect of intravenous cyclophosphamide therapy combined with glucocorticoids ("immunosuppressive therapy group"). The control group received standard supportive care. Results: Patients in the immunosuppressive therapy group had worse kidney function before the initiation of therapy, as indicated by higher serum creatinine, more proteinuria, and a higher degree of hematuria than the control group; they also displayed a higher body mass index. The Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy (MEST-C score) suggested more inflammatory activity in the immunosuppressive therapy group, including more crescents and endocapillary hypercellularity. During the follow-up, proteinuria and hematuria decreased in both groups, and to a significantly greater extent in the immunosuppressive therapy group. Cyclophosphamide treatment significantly improved kidney function as determined by the fold-change of eGFR during the observation period. The number of infections and hospitalizations did not differ, but the incidence of diabetes was increased in the immunosuppressive therapy group. Conclusions: This study suggests immunosuppressive therapy with cyclophosphamide combined with glucocorticoids improves kidney function, proteinuria, and hematuria. The therapy was safe for infectious complications, but was associated with an increased incidence of diabetes, which might be attributable in part to the use of steroids in patients with a higher body mass index at baseline. Although immunosuppressive therapy in IgAN remains controversial, our findings suggest that at least some patients benefit from more aggressive therapy.