Cost-effectiveness analysis of enhancements to angioplasty for infrainguinal arterial disease.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to perform an economic evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of endovascular enhancements to percutaneous transluminal balloon angioplasty (PTA) with bail-out bare metal stents for infrainguinal peripheral arterial disease. METHODS: The following interventions were considered: PTA with no bail-out stenting, PTA with bail-out drug-eluting stents, drug-coated balloons, primary bare metal stents, primary drug-eluting stents, endovascular brachytherapy, stent-grafts and cryoplasty. A discrete-event simulation model was developed to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of the interventions from a health service perspective over a lifetime. Populations of patients with intermittent claudication (IC) and critical leg ischaemia (CLI) were modelled separately. Univariable and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Effectiveness was measured by quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: For both patient populations, the use of drug-coated balloons dominated all other options by having both lower lifetime costs and greater effectiveness. For willingness-to-pay thresholds between £0 and £100,000 per additional QALY, the probability of drug-coated balloons being cost-effective was at least 58.3 per cent for patients with IC and at least 72.2 per cent for patients with CLI. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust to different assumptions regarding the clinical benefits attributable to the interventions. CONCLUSION: The use of drug-coated balloons represents a cost-effective alternative to the use of PTA with bail-out bare metal stents.

Associations of objective physical activity with insulin sensitivity and circulating adipokine profile: the Framingham Heart Study.

The purpose of this study was to explore the relation of physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (SED) to insulin sensitivity and adipokines. We assessed PA and SED using Actical accelerometers and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in 2109 participants (free of type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus) from Framingham Generation 3 and Omni 2 cohorts (mean age 46 years, 54% women). Systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP]) and circulating adipokines were measured 6 years earlier. Steps per day, moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and SED per wear time (%SED) were predictor variables in multivariable regression analyses, with HOMA-IR, CRP and circulating adipokines as outcome measures. We reported that higher MVPA and more steps per day were associated with lower HOMA-IR, adjusting for %SED (ß = -0.036, P = 0.002; ß = -0.041, P = 0.005). Steps were inversely associated with CRP, but were directly associated with insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 levels (ß = -0.111, P = 0.002; ß = 3.293, P = 0.007). %SED was positively associated with HOMA-IR (ß = 0.033, P < 0.0001), but non-significant after adjusting for MVPA (P = 0.13). %SED was associated with higher ratio of leptin/leptin receptor (sOB-R) and higher adipocyte fatty acid-binding protein (FABP)4 (ß = 0.096, P < 0.0001; ß = 0.593, P = 0.002). Our findings suggest differential influences of PA vs. SED on metabolic pathways, with PA modulating insulin resistance and inflammation, whereas SED influences FABPs.

Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: a case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of established osteoporosis.

Individual patient-level models can simulate more complex disease processes than cohort-based approaches. However, large numbers of patients need to be simulated to reduce 1st-order uncertainty, increasing the computational time required and often resulting in the inability to perform extensive sensitivity analyses. A solution, employing Gaussian process techniques, is presented using a case study, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a sample of treatments for established osteoporosis. The Gaussian process model accurately formulated a statistical relationship between the inputs to the individual patient model and its outputs. This model reduced the time required for future runs from 150 min to virtually-instantaneous, allowing probabilistic sensitivity analyses-to be undertaken. This reduction in computational time was achieved with minimal loss in accuracy. The authors believe that this case study demonstrates the value of this technique in handling 1st- and 2nd-order uncertainty in the context of health economic modeling, particularly when more widely used techniques are computationally expensive or are unable to accurately model patient histories.

The cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for children with minor head injury.

AIM: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for children with minor head injury and identify an optimal strategy. METHODS: A probabilistic decision analysis model was developed to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued by each of six potential management strategies for minor head injury, including a theoretical 'zero option' strategy of discharging all patients home without investigation. The model took a lifetime horizon and the perspective of the National Health Service. RESULTS: The optimal strategy was based on the Children's Head injury Algorithm for the prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) rule, although the costs and outcomes associated with each strategy were broadly similar. CONCLUSIONS: Liberal use of CT scanning based on a high sensitivity decision rule is not only effective but also cost saving, with the CHALICE rule being the optimal strategy, although there is some uncertainty in the results. Incremental changes in the costs and QALYs are very small when all selective CT strategies are compared. The estimated cost of caring for patients with brain injury worsened by delayed treatment is very high compared with the cost of CT scanning. This analysis suggests that all hospitals receiving children with minor head injury should have unrestricted access to CT scanning for use in conjunction with evidence-based guidelines.

A self-assembling peptide matrix used to control stiffness and binding site density supports the formation of microvascular networks in three dimensions.

A three-dimensional (3-D) cell culture system that allows control of both substrate stiffness and integrin binding density was created and characterized. This system consisted of two self-assembling peptide (SAP) sequences that were mixed in different ratios to achieve the desired gel stiffness and adhesiveness. The specific peptides used were KFE ((acetyl)-FKFEFKFE-CONH2), which has previously been reported not to support cell adhesion or MVN formation, and KFE-RGD ((acetyl)-GRGDSP-GG-FKFEFKFE-CONH2), which is a similar sequence that incorporates the RGD integrin binding site. Storage modulus for these gels ranged from ∼60 to 6000Pa, depending on their composition and concentration. Atomic force microscopy revealed ECM-like fiber microarchitecture of gels consisting of both pure KFE and pure KFE-RGD as well as mixtures of the two peptides. This system was used to study the contributions of both matrix stiffness and adhesiveness on microvascular network (MVN) formation of endothelial cells and the morphology of human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC). When endothelial cells were encapsulated within 3-D gel matrices without binding sites, little cell elongation and no network formation occurred, regardless of the stiffness. In contrast, matrices containing the RGD binding site facilitated robust MVN formation, and the extent of this MVN formation was inversely proportional to matrix stiffness. Compared with a matrix of the same stiffness with no binding sites, a matrix containing RGD-functionalized peptides resulted in a ∼2.5-fold increase in the average length of network structure, which was used as a quantitative measure of MVN formation. Matrices with hMSC facilitated an increased number and length of cellular projections at higher stiffness when RGD was present, but induced a round morphology at every stiffness when RGD was absent. Taken together, these results demonstrate the ability to control both substrate stiffness and binding site density within 3-D cell-populated gels and reveal an important role for both stiffness and adhesion on cellular behavior that is cell-type specific.

The cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injury.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injury. METHODS: A mathematical model was constructed to evaluate the incremental costs and effectiveness (Quality Adjusted Life years Gained, QALYs) of ten diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injuries. Secondary analyses were undertaken to determine the cost-effectiveness of hospital admission compared to discharge home and to explore the cost-effectiveness of strategies when no responsible adult was available to observe the patient after discharge. RESULTS: The apparent optimal strategy was based on the high and medium risk Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHRhm), although the costs and outcomes associated with each strategy were broadly similar. Hospital admission for patients with non-neurosurgical injury on CT dominated discharge home, whilst hospital admission for clinically normal patients with a normal CT was not cost-effective compared to discharge home with or without a responsible adult at £39 and £2.5 million per QALY, respectively. A selective CT strategy with discharge home if the CT scan was normal remained optimal compared to not investigating or CT scanning all patients when there was no responsible adult available to observe them after discharge. CONCLUSION: Our economic analysis confirms that the recent extension of access to CT scanning for minor head injury is appropriate. Liberal use of CT scanning based on a high sensitivity decision rule is not only effective but also cost-saving. The cost of CT scanning is very small compared to the estimated cost of caring for patients with brain injury worsened by delayed treatment. It is recommended therefore that all hospitals receiving patients with minor head injury should have unrestricted access to CT scanning for use in conjunction with evidence based guidelines. Provisionally the CCHRhm decision rule appears to be the best strategy although there is considerable uncertainty around the optimal decision rule. However, the CCHRhm rule appears to be the most widely validated and it therefore seems appropriate to conclude that the CCHRhm rule has the best evidence to support its use.

A model of the cost-effectiveness of intensity-modulated radiotherapy in comparison with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for the treatment of localised prostate cancer.

AIMS: To determine the cost-effectiveness of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) compared with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) for men with localised prostate cancer from a UK National Health Service perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was developed to simulate the progress of patients through advancing disease states until death from prostate cancer or other causes. Clinical effectiveness data for IMRT and 3DCRT were derived from a systematic review. Four scenarios were modelled based on different clinical studies. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken and the incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (ICER) calculated. RESULTS: In scenarios where estimated survival was greater for IMRT than 3DCRT, IMRT was clearly cost-effective (ICER <£20 000). For scenarios where only a difference in late gastrointestinal toxicity was assumed, the ICER was highly sensitive to uncertain model parameters, including the magnitude of the difference, the duration of gastrointestinal toxicity and the cost difference between treatments. For the most likely scenario, a 15% difference in late gastrointestinal toxicity, the ICER was £35 000, with a 20% probability that it is cost-effective at a maximum threshold of £20 000 and a 48% probability at a threshold of £30 000. CONCLUSION: If IMRT can be used to prolong survival, it is very cost-effective. Otherwise cost-effectiveness is uncertain.

Trabectedin for the treatment of relapsed ovarian cancer.

The paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of trabectedin for the treatment of relapsed platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer, based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal process. The submission addressed only part of the decision problem and did not provide evidence to compare trabectedin (Yondelis®, PharmaMar) and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin hydrochloride (PLDH) (Caelyx®, Schering-Plough) with key comparators. The submission's direct comparison evidence came from one reasonable-quality randomised controlled trial (RCT) of trabectedin and PLDH versus PLDH alone (ET743-OVA-301). The results of the RCT were subdivided into the entire platinum-sensitive population (> 6-month relapse after initial platinum-based chemotherapy) and partially platinum-sensitive (≥ 6- to 12-month relapse) and fully platinum-sensitive (> 12-month relapse) populations. The outcomes included were overall survival, progression-free survival measured by three types of assessor, response rates, adverse effects of treatment, health-related quality of life and cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained. A mixed treatment comparison (MTC) meta-analysis comparing trabectedin and PLDH with single-agent PLDH within the entire platinum-sensitive population, with paclitaxel or with topotecan also formed part of the submission. The RCT data showed that trabectedin plus PLDH compared with PLDH monotherapy had a significant effect on overall survival only within the partially platinum-sensitive subgroup. PFS results reported by the independent radiologists showed significant effects in favour of the trabectedin and PLDH arm for the entire and partially platinum-sensitive populations only. Rates of grade 3 and 4 adverse events were mostly higher in the trabectedin and PLDH arm than in the PLDH alone arm. There were several issues regarding the undertaking of the MTC, and thus the data were not considered robust. Furthermore, the ERG did not believe the MTC to be necessary to answer the decision problem. The manufacturer submitted a de novo cost-effectiveness model. The main analysis compared trabectedin in combination with PLDH versus paclitaxel, topotecan and PLDH (each as monotherapy) in the entire platinum-sensitive population, using results estimated from the MTC. Additional analyses were presented comparing trabectedin in combination with PLDH versus PLDH monotherapy using direct evidence from the OVA-301 trial for the fully, partially and entire platinum-sensitive populations. The cost per QALY gained for trabectedin in combination with PLDH versus PLDH monotherapy was estimated to be £ 70,076 in the main analysis. In the additional analyses, the cost per QALY gained for trabectedin in combination with PLDH versus PLDH monotherapy was £ 94,832, £ 43,996 and £ 31,092 for the entire, partially and fully platinum-sensitive populations, respectively. Additional work was undertaken by the ERG using patient-level data and amending some assumptions to provide a better statistical fit to the Kaplan-Meier data than the exponential distribution assumed by the manufacturer. The ERG base-case estimate of the cost per QALY of trabectedin in combination with PLDH ranged from £46,503 to £54,607 in the partially platinum-sensitive population. At the time of writing, trabectedin in combination with PLDH for the treatment of women with relapsed platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer is not recommended by NICE in the final appraisal determination.

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common cancer in men in the UK. Radiotherapy (RT) is a recognised treatment for PC and high-dose conformal radiotherapy (CRT) is the recommended standard of care for localised or locally advanced tumours. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) allows better dose distributions in RT. OBJECTIVE: This report evaluates the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IMRT for the radical treatment of PC. DATA SOURCES: The following databases were searched: MEDLINE (1950-present), EMBASE (1980-present), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (1982-present), BIOSIS (1985-present), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (1991-present), the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (1991-present), the Science Citation Index (1900-present) and the NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment) (1991-present). MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations was searched to identify any studies not yet indexed on MEDLINE. Current research was identified through searching the UK Clinical Research Network, National Research Register archive, the Current Controlled Trials register and the Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Register. In addition, abstracts of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology, and European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology conferences were browsed. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic literature review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IMRT in PC was conducted. Comparators were three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) or radical prostatectomy. Outcomes sought were overall survival, biochemical [prostate-specific antigen (PSA)] relapse-free survival, toxicity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Fifteen electronic bibliographic databases were searched in January 2009 and updated in May 2009, and the reference lists of relevant articles were checked. Studies only published in languages other than English were excluded. An economic model was developed to examine the cost-effectiveness of IMRT in comparison to 3DCRT. Four scenarios were modelled based on the studies which reported both PSA survival and late gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. In two scenarios equal PSA survival was assumed for IMRT and 3DCRT, the other two having greater PSA survival for the IMRT cohort. As there was very limited data on clinical outcomes, the model estimates progression to clinical failure and PC death from the surrogate outcome of PSA failure. RESULTS: No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of IMRT versus 3DCRT in PC were available, but 13 non-randomised studies comparing IMRT with 3DCRT were found, of which five were available only as abstracts. One abstract reported overall survival. Biochemical relapse-free survival was not affected by treatment group, except where there was a dose difference between groups, in which case higher dose IMRT was favoured over lower dose 3DCRT. Most studies reported an advantage for IMRT in GI toxicity, attributed to increased conformality of treatment compared with 3DCRT, particularly with regard to volume of rectum treated. There was some indication that genitourinary toxicity was worse for patients treated with dose escalated IMRT, although most studies did not find a significant treatment effect. HRQoL improved for both treatment groups following radiotherapy, with any group difference resolved by 6 months after treatment. No comparative studies of IMRT versus prostatectomy were identified. No comparative studies of IMRT in PC patients with bone metastasis were identified. LIMITATIONS: The strength of the conclusions of this review are limited by the lack of RCTs, and any comparative studies for some patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: The comparative data of IMRT versus 3DCRT seem to support the theory that higher doses, up to 81 Gy, can improve biochemical survival for patients with localised PC, concurring with data on CRT. The data also suggest that toxicity can be reduced by increasing conformality of treatment, particularly with regard to GI toxicity, which can be more easily achieved with IMRT than 3DCRT. Whether differences in GI toxicity between IMRT and 3DCRT are sufficient for IMRT to be cost-effective is uncertain, depending on the difference in incidence of GI toxicity, its duration and the cost difference between IMRT and 3DCRT.

Trabectedin for the treatment of advanced metastatic soft tissue sarcoma.

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of trabectedin for the treatment of advanced metastatic soft tissue sarcoma, in accordance with the licensed indication, based on the evidence submission from the manufacturer to NICE as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer's definition of the decision problem were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), response rates, adverse effects of treatment, health-related quality of life, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The clinical evidence was derived from one randomised controlled trial (RCT), in which the licensed dose of trabectedin was compared with a different dose of trabectedin, and three phase II studies. In the RCT, the median OS was 13.9 months for the licensed dose of trabectedin, which was not significantly different from that for the comparator dose of trabectedin, which was 11.8 months. From the phase II uncontrolled trials, median OS was reported as 9.2 or 12.8 months. The RCT reported significantly superior PFS for the licensed dose of trabectedin (median 3.3 months) over the comparator trabectedin dose (median 2.3 months). One phase II uncontrolled trial reported median PFS as 1.9 months in the licensed dose of trabectedin. The RCT reported PFS rates at 6 months were 35.5% for the licensed dose of trabectedin, and 27.5% for the comparator dose of trabectedin. From the phase II uncontrolled trials, PFS rates at 6 months were 24.4% or 29%. For the RCT, deaths attributed to trabectedin occurred in 3.1% of the licensed dose, and 2.3% of the comparator group. The most common severe adverse events were neutropenia, although with a low rate of febrile neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase elevation, although these were reported to be non-cumulative and reversible. Following dialogue iterations with the ERG team, the manufacturer revised the model twice. However, despite revisions, errors/inconsistencies were found in the latest version of the model and were corrected by the ERG (only for the base case). In the latest manufacturer's submission, the cost per QALY gained of trabectedin compared with best supportive care (BSC) was estimated to be 56,985 pounds for the base case using effectiveness from the STS (Soft Tissue Sarcomas)-201 trial for trabectedin and a pool analysis of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer data set for BSC. This analysis was constrained to patients with L-sarcomas only. When the joint uncertainty between parameters was considered, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that trabectedin has a very low probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of 30,000 pounds per QALY gained compared with BSC for any scenario. The guidance has yet to be issued by NICE.

Group cognitive behavioural therapy for postnatal depression: a systematic review of clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and value of information analyses.

BACKGROUND: Postnatal depression (PND) describes a wide range of distressing symptoms that can occur in women following childbirth. There is substantial evidence to support the use of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) in the treatment of depression, and psychological therapies are recommended by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence as a first-line treatment for PND. However, access is limited owing to expense, waiting lists and availability of therapists. Group CBT may, therefore, offer a solution to these problems by reducing therapist time and increasing the number of available places for treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of group CBT compared with currently used packages of care for women with PND. DATA SOURCES: Seventeen electronic bibliographic databases were searched (for example MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, PsycINFO, etc.), covering biomedical, health-related, science, social science and grey literature (including current research). Databases were searched from 1950 to January 2008. In addition, the reference lists of relevant articles were checked and various health services' related resources were consulted via the internet. REVIEW METHODS: The study population included women in the postpartum period (up to 1 year), meeting the criteria of a standardised PND diagnosis using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fourth Edition, or scoring above cut-off on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). No exclusion was made on the basis of the standardised depression screening/case finding instrument of standardised clinical assessment tool used to define PND. All full papers were read by two reviewers (AS and DS) who made independent decisions regarding inclusion or exclusion, and consensus, where possible, was obtained by meeting to compare decisions. In the event of disagreement, a third reviewer (EK) read the paper and made the decision. All data from included quantitative studies were extracted by one reviewer (AS) using a standardised data extraction form. All data from included qualitative studies were extracted by two reviewers (AS and AB) using a standardised data extraction form with disagreements resolved by discussion. Two different data extraction forms were used, one for the quantitative papers and a second for the qualitative papers. RESULTS: Six studies met the inclusion criteria for the quantitative review. Three were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and three were non-randomised trials. Two studies met the inclusion criteria for the qualitative review. These were both treatment evaluations incorporating qualitative methods. Only one study was deemed appropriate for the decision problem; therefore a meta-analysis was not performed. This study indicated that the reduction in the EPDS score through group CBT compared with routine primary care (RPC) was 3.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23 to 6.73] at the end of the treatment period. At 6-month follow-up the relative reduction in EPDS score was 4.48 (95% CI 1.01 to 7.95). Three studies showed the treatment to be effective in reducing depression when compared to RPC, usual care or waiting list groups. There was no adequate evidence on which to assess group CBT compared with other treatments for PND. Two studies of group CBT for PND were included in the qualitative review. Both studies demonstrated patient acceptability of group CBT for PND, although negative feelings towards group CBT were also identified. A de novo economic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of group CBT. The base-case results indicated a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 46,462 pounds for group CBT compared with RPC. The 95% CI for this ratio ranged from 37,008 to 60,728 pounds. There was considerable uncertainty in the cost per woman of running a CBT course, of the appropriateness of efficacy data to the decision problem, and the residual length of benefit associated with group CBT. These were tested using univariate sensitivity analyses. Supplementary analyses that fitted distributions to the cost of treatment and the duration of comparative advantage reported a cost per QALY of 36,062 pounds (95% CI 20,464 to 59,262 pounds). LIMITATIONS: The cost per QALY ratio for group CBT in PND was uncertain because of gaps in the evidence base. There was little quantitative or qualitative RCT evidence to assess the effectiveness of group CBT for PND. The evidence that was available was of low quality in the main because of poor reporting of the results. Furthermore, little information was reported on concurrent treatment used in the studies, which was controlled for in only two of the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from the clinical effectiveness review provided inconsistent and low quality information on which to base any interpretations for service provision. Although three of the included studies provided some indication that group psycho-education incorporating CBT is effective compared with RPC, there is enough doubt in the quality of the study, the level of CBT implemented in the group programmes, and the applicability to a PND population to limit any interpretations significantly. It is also considered that the place of group CBT in a stepped care programme needs to be identified, as well as there being a need for a clearer referral process for group CBT.

Thrombophilia testing in people with venous thromboembolism: systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether thrombophilia testing following a venous thrombotic event is clinically effective and cost-effective in the management of thrombosis compared with no testing for thrombophilia. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic databases were searched from September to November 2006. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness literature was undertaken according to standard methods. A discrete event simulation model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of changing the standard 3-month duration of warfarin treatment to 10 years, 20 years or lifelong. RESULTS: No clinical studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Further literature searches and clinical opinion were therefore used to inform the cost-effectiveness analysis. Thrombophilia testing in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) had an estimated mean cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of below 20,000 pounds regardless of sex or age. In patients with a previous deep vein thrombosis (DVT), thrombophilia testing had an estimated mean cost per QALY of below 20,000 pounds in men aged 69 years or less and in women aged 49 years or less. The estimated duration of warfarin treatment (lifelong, 20 years, 10 years or no extended treatment) that was most cost-effective is presented for each age, sex, initial venous thromboembolism (VTE) event and type of thrombophilia. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of determining the duration of anticoagulation management, scenarios were found in which the cost per QALY of thrombophilia testing was below 20,000 pounds. However, these results are subject to great uncertainty, largely because of lack of knowledge about the increased risk of recurrence with each type of thrombophilia. Results are influenced by the fact that men have a greater risk of recurrence than women and by the fact that the frequency of adverse events associated with warfarin treatment increases with age. Further research, for example on the likely sensitivity and specificity of the tests for specific types of thrombophilia, is needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with these results. Studies comparing patients with VTE tested for thrombophilia with those whose risk assessment was based on personal and family history of thrombosis would also be beneficial.

A prospective randomised controlled trial and economic modelling of antimicrobial silver dressings versus non-adherent control dressings for venous leg ulcers: the VULCAN trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial silver-donating dressings for venous leg ulcers compared with simple non-adherent (also known as low-adherent) dressings. DESIGN: A pragmatic, prospective randomised controlled trial (RCT) and cost-effectiveness analysis of silver-donating versus low-adherent dressings in the treatment of venous leg ulcers. A non-randomised observational group was also recruited. SETTING: Primary and secondary care services in the north and south of England (Sheffield and Exeter). PARTICIPANTS: Consenting patients with active ulceration of the lower leg that had been present for a period of greater than 6 weeks. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to receive either a silver-donating or non-silver low-adherent dressing applied beneath compression bandages or hosiery. The choice of dressing within these groups was left to clinician preference. Evaluation was by clinical assessment, supplemented by evaluation of quality of life and cost-effectiveness. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was complete ulcer healing at 12 weeks in the index limb. Secondary measures were costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost-effectiveness, time to healing, and recurrence rate at 6 months and 1 year. RESULTS: In total, 304 participants were recruited to the clinical trial: 213 to the RCT and 91 to the observational arm. Within the RCT 107 were randomised to antimicrobial dressings and 106 to the control dressings. There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between the two groups for the primary outcome measure of proportion of ulcers healed at 12 weeks (59.6% for silver and 56.7% for control dressings). The overall median time to healing was also not significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.408). A total of 24 patients had recurrent ulcers within 1 year; the recurrence rates of 11.6% (n = 11) for the antimicrobial and 14.4% (n = 13) for the control dressings were not significant. Mean utility valuations for both the EuroQol 5 dimensions (EQ-5D) quality of life questionnaire and Short Form 6 dimensions (SF-6D) utility index showed no differences for either group at 1, 3, 6 or 12 months. Compared with the control group, the antimicrobial group had an incremental cost of 97.85 pounds and an incremental QALY gain of 0.0002, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the antimicrobial dressings of 489,250 pounds. Cost-effectiveness modelling of the results of the RCT showed that antimicrobial dressings were not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: No significant differences in either primary or secondary end points were found between the use of antimicrobial silver-donating dressings and the control group of low-adherent dressings. Modelling showed that antimicrobial silver dressings were not cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN72485131.

Triaging patients with serious head injury: results of a simulation evaluating strategies to bypass hospitals without neurosurgical facilities.

OBJECTIVES: to inform the debate on whether seriously head-injured adult patients should be transported directly to the regional neurosurgical unit or indirectly after evaluation and stabilisation at the nearest hospital. DESIGN: a simulation model was constructed to compare triage strategies and to identify those that predicted the maximum survivors. In each strategy, an estimate of the patient's condition in the field was used to determine the receiving hospital. The model used data from previous publications and local ambulance service and hospital databases. In the absence of valid data, expert clinical estimates were made and subjected to sensitivity analyses. SETTING: an area in the North West Midlands of UK, covered by six acute hospitals including one with a regional neurosurgical unit. OUTCOME MEASURE: the number of survivors predicted by each triage strategy. RESULTS: five strategies were identified which consistently predicted the highest number of survivors. Compared with current policy it was predicted that in the North West Midlands, ten lives per year could be saved (6 per million total population per year). The results from sensitivity analyses did not alter these successful policies. CONCLUSION: the successful strategies should be considered as potential improvements to be introduced into clinical practice.