Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region: the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To improve upon the estimation of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) event risk for individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region by systematic recalibration of the SCORE2 risk algorithm. METHODS: The sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted SCORE2 algorithms were systematically recalibrated to reflect CVD incidence observed in four Asia-Pacific risk regions, defined according to country-level World Health Organization age- and sex-standardized CVD mortality rates. Using the same approach as applied for the original SCORE2 models, recalibration to each risk region was completed using expected CVD incidence and risk factor distributions from each region. RESULTS: Risk region-specific CVD incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 8,405,574 individuals (556,421 CVD events). For external validation, data from 9,560,266 individuals without previous CVD or diabetes were analysed in 13 prospective studies from 12 countries (350,550 incident CVD events). The pooled C-index of the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms in the external validation data sets was 0.710 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.677-0.745). Cohort-specific C-indices ranged from 0.605 (95% CI 0.597-0.613) to 0.840 (95% CI 0.771-0.909). Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across Asia-Pacific risk regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old non-smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 7% for men in low-risk countries to 14% for men in very-high-risk countries, and from 3% for women in low-risk countries to 13% for women in very-high-risk countries. CONCLUSIONS: The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms have been calibrated to estimate 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asia and Oceania, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia-Pacific region.

Polygenic risk score adds to a clinical risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in a clinical setting.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A cardiovascular disease polygenic risk score (CVD-PRS) can stratify individuals into different categories of cardiovascular risk, but whether the addition of a CVD-PRS to clinical risk scores improves the identification of individuals at increased risk in a real-world clinical setting is unknown. METHODS: The Genetics and the Vascular Health Check Study (GENVASC) was embedded within the UK National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme which invites individuals between 40-74 years of age without known CVD to attend an assessment in a UK general practice where CVD risk factors are measured and a CVD risk score (QRISK2) is calculated. Between 2012-2020, 44,141 individuals (55.7% females, 15.8% non-white) who attended an NHSHC in 147 participating practices across two counties in England were recruited and followed. When 195 individuals (cases) had suffered a major CVD event (CVD death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke), 396 propensity-matched controls with a similar risk profile were identified, and a nested case-control genetic study undertaken to see if the addition of a CVD-PRS to QRISK2 in the form of an integrated risk tool (IRT) combined with QRISK2 would have identified more individuals at the time of their NHSHC as at high risk (QRISK2 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%), compared with QRISK2 alone. RESULTS: The distribution of the standardised CVD-PRS was significantly different in cases compared with controls (cases mean score .32; controls, -.18, P = 8.28×10-9). QRISK2 identified 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3%-68.4%) of individuals who subsequently developed a major CVD event as being at high risk at their NHSHC, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 68.7% (95% CI: 61.7%-75.2%), a relative increase of 11.7% (P = 1×10-4). The odds ratio (OR) of being up-classified was 2.41 (95% CI: 1.03-5.64, P = .031) for cases compared with controls. In individuals aged 40-54 years, QRISK2 identified 26.0% (95% CI: 16.5%-37.6%) of those who developed a major CVD event, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 38.4% (95% CI: 27.2%-50.5%), indicating a stronger relative increase of 47.7% in the younger age group (P = .001). The combination of QRISK2 and IRT increased the proportion of additional cases identified similarly in women as in men, and in non-white ethnicities compared with white ethnicity. The findings were similar when the CVD-PRS was added to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE) or SCORE2 clinical scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a clinical setting, the addition of genetic information to clinical risk assessment significantly improved the identification of individuals who went on to have a major CVD event as being at high risk, especially among younger individuals. The findings provide important real-world evidence of the potential value of implementing a CVD-PRS into health systems.

Cardiovascular disease risk in people of African ancestry with HIV in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to describe the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in people of African ancestry with HIV in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of CVD risk factors in Black people with HIV aged ≥40 years and estimated the 10-year CVD risk using QRISK®3-2018. Correlations between body mass index (BMI) and CVD risk factors were described using Pearson correlation coefficients, and factors associated with 10-year CVD risk ≥5% were described using logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 833 Black people with HIV and a median age of 54 years; 54% were female, 50% were living with obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2), 61% had hypertension, and 19% had diabetes mellitus. CVD risk >5% ranged from 2% in female participants aged 40-49 years to 99% in men aged ≥60 years, and use of statins ranged from 7% in those with CVD risk <2.5% to 64% in those with CVD risk ≥20%. BMI was correlated (R2 0.1-0.2) with triglycerides and diastolic blood pressure in women and with glycated haemoglobin, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and total:high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio in men. In both female and male participants, older age, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and kidney disease were strongly associated with CVD risk ≥5%, whereas obesity, total:HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and smoking status were variably associated with CVD risk ≥5%. CONCLUSIONS: We report a high burden of CVD risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, in people of African ancestry with HIV in the UK. BMI-focused interventions in these populations may improve CVD risk while also addressing other important health issues.

Performance of the non-laboratory based 2019 WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction chart in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The World Health Organization (WHO) updated its cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction charts in 2019 to cover 21 global regions. We aimed to assess the performance of an updated non-lab-based risk chart for people with normoglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and diabetes in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from six WHO STEPS surveys conducted in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa between 2012 and 2017. We included 9857 participants aged 40-69 years with no CVD history. The agreement between lab- and non-lab-based charts was assessed using Bland-Altman plots and Cohen's kappa. The median age of the participants was 50 years (25-75th percentile: 44-57). The pooled median 10-year CVD risk was 3 % (25-75th percentile: 2-5) using either chart. According to the estimation, 7.5 % and 8.4 % of the participants showed an estimated CVD risk ≥10 % using the non-lab-based chart or the lab-based chart, respectively. The concordance between the two charts was 91.3 %. The non-lab-based chart underestimated the CVD risk in 57.6 % of people with diabetes. In the Bland-Altman plots, the limits of agreement between the two charts were widest among people with diabetes (-0.57-7.54) compared to IFG (-1.75-1.22) and normoglycaemia (-1.74-1.06). Kappa values of 0.79 (substantial agreement), 0.78 (substantial agreement), and 0.43 (moderate agreement) were obtained among people with normoglycaemia, IFG, and diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Given limited healthcare resources, the updated non-lab-based chart is suitable for CVD risk estimation in the general population without diabetes. Lab-based risk estimation is suitable for individuals with diabetes to avoid risk underestimation.

Physical activity, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular risk: A study in half a million adults.

OBJECTIVE: There is a growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), a condition associated with a higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We assessed the association between self-reported physical activity (PA) and CKD and also studied whether PA attenuates CKD-associated CVD risk. METHODS: A cohort of Spanish adults (18-64 years) participated in this nationwide study. Participants were categorized at baseline as being either inactive (performing no PA), regularly, or insufficiently active (meeting or not, respectively, international PA recommendations) and were followed for up to 5 years. The presence of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 ) and major CVD risk factors (diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, obesity) was determined at baseline and at follow-up. RESULTS: 517 917 participants (44 ± 9 years, 67% male, CKD prevalence = 7%) were studied at baseline, with prospective analyses (median follow-up = 2 years, range = 2-5) in a subcohort of 264 581 individuals. Compared to physical inactivity, cross-sectional analyses at baseline showed that regular PA (odds ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval = 0.79-0.81), but not insufficient PA (1.02; 0.99-1.04) was associated with lower CKD prevalence. However, prospective analyses failed to confirm this association (p > 0.1). In turn, CKD was associated with a higher prevalence of hypertension (+3%) and diabetes (+5%) at baseline and with a greater incidence of hypertension at follow-up (+37%). Among those participants with CKD, regular PA was associated with a lower prevalence (-45% to -7%) and incidence (-38% to -4%) of all CVD risk factors. CONCLUSION: Although PA might not reduce incident CKD in the middle term (~2 years), it can attenuate the CVD risk linked to this condition.

Ten-year risk assessment for cardiovascular disease & associated factors among adult Indians (aged 40-69 yr): Insights from the National Noncommunicable Disease Monitoring Survey (NNMS).

Background & objectives Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are extremely prevalent in India, making early detection of people at high risk for CVDs and prevention crucial. This study aimed to estimate CVD risk distribution in older adults (40-69 yr) in India using WHO's non-laboratory risk chart and identify factors associated with elevated CVD risk (10%). Methods The current study used a nationally representative sample of 40-69 yr adults in India. The population's 10-yr CVD risk was defined as very low-to-low (10%), moderate (10-20%) and high to very high (>20%). We attempted univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to identify factors related to higher CVD risk (≥10%). Results Out of 4480 participants, 50 per cent were younger participants (40-49 years). The proportions of the population with very low to low, moderate and high to very high CVD risk were 84.9, 14.4 and 0.7 per cent, respectively. The estimated 10-year CVD risk was higher for people with unemployed [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 5.12; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.63, 7.24], followed by raised blood glucose (AOR: 1.81; 95%CI: 1.39, 2.34). Interpretation & conclusions The non-laboratory-based chart proves valuable in low-resource settings, especially at the primary healthcare level, facilitating efficient CVD risk assessment and resource allocation. Further research is needed to explore the association of second-hand smoke with CVD risk in the Indian population.

Accuracy of self-perceived cardiovascular disease risk and factors predicting risk underestimation in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women in Ismailia, Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally, with women at higher risk after menopause. This increased risk is attributed to both aging and hormonal changes. Prior research has established a link between CVD risk perception and adopting healthy behaviors to prevent CVD. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of self-perceived CVD risk in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women, and to identify factors that predict CVD risk underestimation among them. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the administrative sectors of Suez Canal University campus in Ismailia, Egypt, over a period of eight months starting in July 2022. A total of 390 eligible women (employees and workers) were randomly selected. Participants were interviewed to obtain data on demographics, medical history, self-perceived risk of CVD, self-perceived general health, awareness of factors that increase the risk of developing CVD, perceived stress, health literacy, numeracy, and self-perceived 10-year risk of developing major cardiovascular events. They also underwent measurements of blood pressure, weight, and height. The updated 2019 WHO/CVD risk non-laboratory-based prediction chart for the North Africa and Middle East Region was used to predict the 10-year risk of major cardiovascular events for the study participants. Risk accuracy was measured by comparing self-perceived CVD risk with predicted CVD risk. RESULTS: The ratio of self-perceived to predicted moderate/high CVD risk was 27.7% to 44.3%, respectively. The accuracy of CVD risk perception was 68.2%. Kappa analysis results showed fair and significant agreement between self-perceived and predicted CVD risk (kappa ± SE = 35.9 ± 4.1%, p < 0 .001). The proportion of women who underestimated their risks was 24.1%. Of those in the high-risk group, 93.3% underestimated their CVD risk, compared to 50.6% in the moderate-risk group. Factors that significantly predicted CVD risk underestimation included being married (aOR 14.5; 95% CI 1.4-149.9), low income (aOR 2.321; 95% CI 1.09-4.909), high BMI (aOR 4.78; 95% CI 1.9-11.9), hypertension (aOR 3.5; 95% CI 2-6.2), and old age (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.3-1.6). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-third of our study participants misperceived their CVD risk; of those who did, 75.8% underestimated it. Marital status, old age, low income, high BMI, and hypertension strongly predicted CVD risk underestimation. These findings identified the menopausal women subgroups that could benefit from targeted health interventions designed to reduce CVD risk underestimation and improve risk accuracy.

Association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese and metabolically healthy obese individuals with arterial stiffness and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk: a cross-sectional study in Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between metabolically healthy obese individuals (MHO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is disputed. This study investigated the association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese(MUNO) individuals and MHO with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. METHODS: A total of 13,435 participants were enrolled and further divided into the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype (n = 4927), MUNO phenotype (n = 1971), MHO phenotype (n = 2537) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotype (n = 4000) according to body mass index (BMI) and metabolic status. We used brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) to measure arterial stiffness and the Framingham risk score (FRS) to evaluate the 10-year CVD risk. RESULTS: The MUO and MUNO phenotypes had higher mean baPWV values than the MHO and MHNO phenotypes, regardless of age (1446.19 ± 233.65 vs. 1423.29 ± 240.72 vs. 1283.57 ± 213.77 vs. 1234.08 ± 215.99 cm/s, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the MUNO and MUO phenotypes were independently correlated with elevated baPWV and 10-year CVD risk, while the MHO phenotype was independently associated with only the 10-year CVD risk. In metabolically healthy subjects, BMI showed a dose-dependent increase in the risk of elevated baPWV, with an adjusted OR of 1.007 (95% CI 1.004-1.010, P < 0.001). However, in metabolically unhealthy participants, the estimate for the relationship between elevated baPWV and BMI was nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: The MUNO phenotype exhibits increased arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. However, BMI is positively and dose-dependently correlated with arterial stiffness only in metabolically healthy subjects. We speculate that metabolic status may be a strong confounder in the obesity-elevated baPWV association.

Lipid profile abnormalities & 10 yr risk of CVD assessment among adult in North East India: A cross-sectional study.

Background & objectives: In India, lifestyle changes have contributed to increase in the number of people suffering from lipid profile abnormalities, which is a major risk factor for coronary artery diseases. The present study was aimed to estimate the prevalence of lipid profile abnormalities and 10 yr risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the adult population in west Tripura district and to study the association of lipid profile abnormalities and increased CVD risk with sociodemography, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, random blood sugar (RBS) and haemoglobin level. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted amongst 445 adults of 20 to 60 yr of age from a randomly selected block in west Tripura district. The 10 yr risk of CVD was estimated using the Framingham Risk Assessment Tool. Results: The study revealed that overall 83.4 per cent adult population had lipid profile abnormalities, with 22.2, 42 and 70.3 per cent of participants having hypercholesterolaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia and low high-density lipoprotein level, respectively. Gender (P=0.02) and BMI (P<0.001) were the significant determinants of dyslipidaemia. Only 3.8 per cent of participants had intermediate or high risk of CVD, with all of them being males. Gender, age, occupation and RBS were significantly associated with increased CVD risk. Interpretation & conclusions: The study revealed a high burden of lipid profile abnormalities in the study population, with males having more risk of CVD. Hence, periodic screening of lipid profile abnormalities and risk of CVD should be incorporated at the primary care level to combat the CVD epidemic in India.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease risk screening in a low-resource setting: cost-effectiveness of program modifications in Sri Lanka modelled with nationally representative survey data.

BACKGROUND: While screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help low-resource health systems deliver low-cost, effective prevention, evidence is needed to adapt international screening guidelines for maximal impact in local settings. We aimed to establish how the cost-effectiveness of CVD risk screening in Sri Lanka varies with who is screened, how risk is assessed, and what thresholds are used for prescription of medicines. METHODS: We used data for people aged 35 years and over from a 2018/19 nationally representative survey in Sri Lanka. We modelled the costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for 128 screening program scenarios distinguished by a) age group screened, b) risk tool used, c) definition of high CVD risk, d) blood pressure threshold for treatment of high-risks, and e) prescription of statins to all diabetics. We used the current program as the base case. We used a Markov model of a one-year screening program with a lifetime horizon and a public health system perspective. RESULTS: Scenarios that included the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool dominated most others. Switching to this tool and raising the age threshold for screening from 35 to 40 years gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $113/QALY. Lowering the CVD high-risk threshold from 20 to 10% and prescribing antihypertensives at a lower threshold to diabetics and people at high risk of CVD gave an ICER of $1,159/QALY. The findings were sensitive to allowing for disutility of daily medication. CONCLUSIONS: In Sri Lanka, CVD risk screening scenarios that used the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool, screened people above the age of 40, and lowered risk and blood pressure thresholds would likely be cost-effective, generating an additional QALY at less than half a GDP per capita.

Exploring the Role of Irrational Beliefs, Lifestyle Behaviors, and Educational Status in 10-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk: the ATTICA Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: Irrational beliefs, maladaptive emotions, and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors can adversely affect health status. However, limited research has examined the association between irrational beliefs and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between irrational beliefs and the 10-year CVD incidence among apparently healthy adults, considering the potential moderating or mediating role of particular social and lifestyle factors. METHODS: The ATTICA study is a population-based, prospective cohort (2002-2012), in which 853 participants without a history of CVD [453 men (aged 45 ± 13 years) and 400 women (aged 44 ± 18 years)] underwent psychological evaluations. Among other tools, participants completed the irrational beliefs inventory (IBI, range 0-88), a self-reported measure consistent with the Ellis model of psychological disturbance. Demographic characteristics, detailed medical history, dietary, and other lifestyle habits were also evaluated. Incidence of CVD (i.e., coronary heart disease, acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD) was defined according to the International Coding Diseases (ICD)-10 criteria. RESULTS: Mean IBI score was 53 ± 2 in men and 53 ± 3 in women (p = 0.88). IBI score was positively associated with 10-year CVD risk (hazard ratio 1.07, 95%CI 1.04, 1.13), in both men and women, and more prominently among those with less healthy dietary habits and lower education status; specifically, higher educational status leads to lower IBI score, and in conjunction they lead to lower 10-year CVD risk (HR for interaction 0.98, 95%CI 0.97, 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study underline the need to build new, holistic approaches in order to better understand the inter-relationships between irrational beliefs, lifestyle behaviors, social determinants, and CVD risk in individuals.

Does Lifestyle Behaviour Trigger Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among School-Going Adolescents In Pakistan?

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of gender with risk factors for cardiovascular diseases among adolescents. Method: The cross-sectional study was conducted 2016-2019 in low-income schools in Karachi after approval from the ethics review board of Dow University of Health Sciences, and comprised adolescents of both genders aged 11-17 years. Anthropometric measurements and lifestyle behaviours were used to generate risk profile for cardiovascular diseases. Data was analysed using SPSS 16. RESULTS: Of the 1195 subjects, 468(39.2%) were boys and 727(60.8%) were girls. The mean age was 13.9±1.6 years. Mean family size was 5.9±3.64. Overall, 989(91.3%) participants consumed soft drinks, 44(4%) were smokers, 340(48.4%) consumed betel nut, 215(32.9%) Pan, 125(21.2%) Gutka and 9(1.7%) Bidi. Of the total, 867(83.3%) participants were physically less active than recommended, and daily screen time was >2 hours among 513(45.7%) participants. Body mass index and body fat percentage were significantly higher among girls (p<0.05). Higher rates of diastolic and systolic blood pressure and hand grip strength were observed in boys compared to girls (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Interventional programmes in schools should emphasise the need for healthy lifestyle behaviours, increased physical activity, good eating habits and smoking cessation.

Racial and ethnic disparities in chronic disease risk in adolescence after prenatal polydrug exposure: Examination of the Hispanic paradox.

Racial disparities exist in fetal development which in turn can influence growth and development of chronic disease later in life. The purpose of this study was to explore potential racial and ethnic differences in chronic disease risk factors throughout the pediatric years given prenatal exposure to substance use. Data from the Maternal Lifestyle Study cohort was used for this analysis. Urine toxicology confirmed maternal substance use (y/n) and offspring height, weight, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) data at 16 years was analyzed. Linear mixed effects modeling with an interaction term for adolescent race/ethnicity and maternal drug use assessed growth trajectories (body mass index (BMI) percentile) and cardiovascular disease risk factors (elevated SBP). Of the sample (n = 1,388 mother/infant dyads), 23% (n = 319) of mothers used three substances during pregnancy and 14% (n = 200) used four or five. Controlling for BMI, Hispanic adolescents prenatally exposed to any singular substance had 13 mmHg higher SBP at age 16 than their unexposed counterparts (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 12.24, 14.01). Prenatal exposure to >1 substance significantly lowered SBP in Hispanic adolescents only. Results here showed that Hispanic adolescents exposed to singular substance are at higher risk of elevated SBP in adolescence, but SBP decreased when exposed to >1 substance. The Hispanic paradox may play a role; future studies should continue to explore this. Additionally, barriers to prenatal care for Hispanic women should be addressed in order to prevent substance use during pregnancy which can reduce chronic disease risk in offspring adolescence.

Osteoarthritis knee and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors: play in tandem.

Objective: To know the frequency of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in knee osteoarthritis patients. Method: Cross sectional study was done at Department of Rheumatology Indus Medical College, Tando Mohammad Khan from March 25, 2022 to November 24, 2022. Total 246 Osteoarthritis of knee cases with (Kellgren-Lawrence grad-II and above) on x-ray, were selected after demographic details, blood pressure, body mass index and physical examination was done, 5ml of venous blood was drawn by phlebotomist, sent for fasting blood sugar, serum lipids analysis and Framingham 10years risk score was calculated afterward for each participant. Results: In this study males (126) and females (120). Overall (78%) had risk factors, Patients having one CVD risk factor were (22.8%), two risk factors in (21.1%), three in (21.5%), four (9.8%) and five factors in (1.6%) while frequency of modifiable cardiovascular risk shows obesity (45.5%) hypertension (40.2%) intermediate to high risk of framingham score (40%) diabetes mellitus (25%), smoking (17%), high low density lipoproteins (8.1%). In males obesity(54.2%), hypertension (47.5% ) and (45.8%) were on medication, diabetes mellitus(31.7%), smoker(31%), high risk FRS(39.2%), K-L grade-IV(58.4%) and in females: obesity (42%), hypertension (43.7%) and (40.5%) were on medication, diabetes mellitus in (19%), smoking (4%), high risk FRS (13.5%), K-L Grade-4 (42%), significant association of diabetes mellitus, smoking, FRS and K-L grades with gender (p<0.05). Conclusion: In OA knee there is high prevalence of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and together these imposes a major health risk for future cardiac events and disability.

A risk factor attention-based model for cardiovascular disease prediction.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a serious disease that endangers human health and is one of the main causes of death. Therefore, using the patient's electronic medical record (EMR) to predict CVD automatically has important application value in intelligent assisted diagnosis and treatment, and is a hot issue in intelligent medical research. However, existing methods based on natural language processing can only predict CVD according to the whole or part of the context information of EMR. RESULTS: Given the deficiencies of the existing research on CVD prediction based on EMRs, this paper proposes a risk factor attention-based model (RFAB) to predict CVD by utilizing CVD risk factors and general EMRs text, which adopts the attention mechanism of a deep neural network to fuse the character sequence and CVD risk factors contained in EMRs text. The experimental results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction performance of CVD, and the F-score reaches 0.9586, which outperforms the existing related methods. CONCLUSIONS: RFAB focuses on the key information in EMR that leads to CVD, that is, 12 risk factors. In the stage of risk factor identification and extraction, risk factors are labeled with category information and time attribute information by BiLSTM-CRF model. In the stage of CVD prediction, the information contained in risk factors and their labels is fused with the information of character sequence in EMR to predict CVD. RFAB makes well use of the fine-grained information contained in EMR, and also provides a reliable idea for predicting CVD.

Immune correlates of cardiovascular co-morbidity in HIV infected participants from South India.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the immune correlates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in HIV infection is an important area of investigation in the current era of aging with HIV infection. Less is known about CVD risk and HIV infection in developing nations where additional risk factors may be playing a role in the CVD development. In this study, we assessed the effects of systemic inflammation, microbial translocation (MT), T cell immune activation (IA), and nadir CD4 counts on cardiac function and arterial stiffness as markers of subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: People with HIV (PWH) who were ART naïve (n = 102) or virally suppressed on ART (n = 172) were stratified on nadir CD4 counts and compared to HIV-uninfected controls (n = 64). Determination was made of cardiac function via radial pulse wave and carotid intima thickness (C-IMT) measurements. Plasma biomarkers of inflammation and MT by ELISA or multiplex assays, and immune activation (IA) of T cells based HLA-DR and CD38 expression were investigated by flow cytometry. T-test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Spearman correlation were used to analyze study parameters. RESULTS: Reduction in cardiac function with lower cardiac ejection time (p < 0.001), stroke volume (p < 0.001), cardiac output (p = 0.007), higher arterial stiffness (p < 0.05) were identified in ART-naïve participants, compared to PWH on ART (p < 0.05). No significant difference in C-IMT values were noted. Higher inflammatory and MT markers were found in the ART-naïve group compared to treated group who were comparable to uninfected participants, except for having higher TNF-α (p < 0.001) and sCD14 (p < 0.001). Immune activation of CD4 and CD8 T-cells was greater in ART-naïve participants compared to ART-treated and uninfected controls (p < 0.05). Lower nadir CD4 counts, higher inflammation, and higher MT predicted poor cardiac measures in the ART-naïve with nadir CD4 < 200cells/mm3 manifesting the highest arterial stiffness, and lowest cardiac function, whereas ART-treated, even with nadir < 200 cells/mm3 were similar to uninfected in these measures. CONCLUSIONS: In HIV-infected individuals, initiation of ART even at nadir of < 200 cells/mm3 may prevent or reverse cardiovascular disease outcomes that are easily measurable in low income countries.

Effectiveness of letters to patients with or without Cochrane blogshots on 10-year cardiovascular risk change among women in menopausal transition: 6-month three-arm randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Health information and patient education on lifestyle changes may have a positive effect on the prevention of many chronic conditions, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We performed a parallel, three-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT) of 6-month educational intervention in a form of letters containing a reminder of the participant's CVD risk with or without Cochrane blogshots to reduce CVD risk among women aged 45-65 with one or more known CVD risk factors. METHODS: The control group received a letter about their CVD risk at the beginning of the trial. The intervention groups received the initial letter about their CVD risk and remainder letters about their CVD risk every 2 months, with or without Cochrane blogshots: (1) effect of calcium in the prevention of high blood pressure, (2) effect of reducing saturated fat acids in eating habits, and (3) effects of green and black tea in CVD prevention. The primary outcome was CVD risk reduction calculated as the difference between the baseline and 6-month score for a 10-year risk of fatal CVD according to the ACC/AHA guidelines. RESULTS: After both interventions, CVD risk reduction was significantly higher compared to the control group (P < 0.001, Kruskal-Wallis H test). The number of participants who decreased their CV risk was 29% (20/70) in the control group, 69% (48/70) in the group receiving the reminder letters, and 70% (49/70) in the group receiving the reminder letters and blogshots. The number needed to treat to achieve risk reduction was 2.41 (95% CI = 1.77 to 3.78) for letters with a CVD risk reminder and 2.50 (1.81 to 4.03) for letters with a reminder and a blogshot. The group receiving reminder letters with Cochrane blogshots had a significant change in the category of CVD risk, mainly from high to moderate and from moderate to low CVD risk category. CONCLUSIONS: A simple and inexpensive intervention method in a form of letters reminding women about their CVD risk with or without providing additional health information in the form of Cochrane blogshots about interventions for important CVD risk factors may be effective in CVD management and could be considered by primary care providers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04601558. Retrospectively registered on October 19, 2020.

Remnant cholesterol is prospectively associated with cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality in kidney transplant recipients: the FAVORIT study.

BACKGROUND: The cholesterol content of circulating triglyceride-rich lipoproteins is characterized as remnant cholesterol, although little is known about its role in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, all-cause mortality or transplant failure in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Our primary aim was to investigate the prospective association of remnant cholesterol and the risk of CVD events in renal transplant recipients with secondary aims evaluating remnant cholesterol and renal graft failure and all-cause mortality among participants in the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcome Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) trial. METHODS: Among 4110 enrolled participants, 98 were excluded for missing baseline remnant cholesterol levels and covariates. Nonfasting remnant cholesterol levels were calculated based on the lipid profiles in 3812 FAVORIT trial participants at randomization. A Wilcoxon-type test for trend was used to compare baseline characteristics across remnant cholesterol quartiles. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association of baseline remnant cholesterol levels with time to primary and secondary study outcomes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.0 years we documented 548 CVD incident events, 343 transplant failures and 452 all-cause deaths. When comparing the highest quartile (quartile 4) to quartile 1, proportional hazard modeling revealed a significant increase in CVD risk {hazard ratio [HR] 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.67]} and all-cause mortality risk [HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.01-1.69)]. A nonsignificant increase in transplant failure was seen as well [HR 1.20 (95% CI 0.87-1.64)]. CONCLUSIONS: Remnant cholesterol is associated with CVD and all-cause mortality in long-term KTRs. A randomized controlled clinical trial in KTRs that assesses the potential impact of remnant cholesterol-lowering therapy on these outcomes may be warranted.

Association of an evolutionary-concordance lifestyle pattern score with incident CVD among Black and White men and women.

Dietary and lifestyle evolutionary discordance is hypothesised to play a role in the aetiology of CVD, including CHD and stroke. We aimed to investigate associations of a previously reported, total (dietary plus lifestyle) evolutionary-concordance (EC) pattern score with incident CVD, CHD and stroke. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to investigate associations of the EC score with CVD, CHD and stroke incidence among USA Black and White men and women ≥45 years old in the prospective REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study (2003-2017). The EC score comprised seven equally weighted components: a previously reported dietary EC score (using Block 98 FFQ data) and six lifestyle characteristics (alcohol intake, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, waist circumference, smoking history and social network size). A higher score indicates a more evolutionary-concordant dietary/lifestyle pattern. Of the 15 467 participants in the analytic cohort without a CVD diagnosis at baseline, 1563 were diagnosed with CVD (967 with CHD and 596 with stroke) during follow-up (median 11·0 years). Among participants in the highest relative to the lowest EC score quintile, the multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios and their 95 % CI for CVD, CHD and stroke were, respectively, 0·73 (0·62, 0·86; Ptrend < 0·001), 0·72 (0·59, 0·89; Ptrend < 0·001) and 0·76 (0·59, 0·98; Ptrend = 0·01). The results were similar by sex and race. Our findings support that a more evolutionary-concordant diet and lifestyle pattern may be associated with lower risk of CVD, CHD and stroke.

Influence of a proinflammatory state on postprandial outcomes in elderly subjects with a risk phenotype for cardiometabolic diseases.

PURPOSE: Low-grade inflammation in obesity is associated with insulin resistance and other metabolic disturbances. In response to high-energy meal intake, blood concentrations of inflammatory markers, glucose and insulin rise. The aim of this study was to examine whether a basal inflammatory state influences postprandial responses. METHODS: A randomized crossover trial was performed in 60 participants with a cardiometabolic risk phenotype (age 70 ± 5 years; BMI 30.9 ± 3.1 kg/m2). Each participant consumed three different iso-energetic meals (4300 kJ): a Western diet-like high-fat meal (WDHF), a Western diet-like high-carbohydrate meal (WDHC) and a Mediterranean diet-like meal (MED). Blood samples were collected when fasted and hourly for 5 h postprandially and analyzed for glucose, insulin, interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and endothelial adhesion molecules. Based on fasting serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations, participants were assigned to a high inflammation (CRP ≥ 2.0 mg/L; n = 30) or low inflammation (CRP < 2.0 mg/L; n = 30) group, and postprandial outcomes were compared. RESULTS: Plasma IL-6, glucose and serum insulin increased after all meals, while IL-1ß and endothelial adhesion molecules were unchanged. The high inflammation group had higher fasting and postprandial IL-6 concentrations than the low inflammation group, although the IL-6 response slope was similar between groups. In response to the WDHC meal, participants in the high inflammation group experienced a higher glycaemic response than those in the low inflammation group. CONCLUSION: A basal proinflammatory state results in higher absolute fasting and postprandial IL-6 concentrations, but the increase in IL-6 relative to basal levels is not different between high and low inflammation groups. Elevated glycaemic response in the high inflammation group may be due to inflammation-induced short-term insulin resistance. The trial was registered at http://www.germanctr.de and http://www.drks.de under identifier DRKS00009861 (registration date, January 22, 2016).