Uveal melanoma distant metastasis prediction system: A retrospective observational study based on machine learning.

Uveal melanoma (UM) patients face a significant risk of distant metastasis, closely tied to a poor prognosis. Despite this, there is a dearth of research utilizing big data to predict UM distant metastasis. This study leveraged machine learning methods on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to forecast the risk probability of distant metastasis. Therefore, the information on UM patients from the SEER database (2000-2020) was split into a 7:3 ratio training set and an internal test set based on distant metastasis presence. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses assessed distant metastasis risk factors. Six machine learning methods constructed a predictive model post-feature variable selection. The model evaluation identified the multilayer perceptron (MLP) as optimal. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpreted the chosen model. A web-based calculator personalized risk probabilities for UM patients. The results show that nine feature variables contributed to the machine learning model. The MLP model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy (Precision = 0.788; ROC AUC = 0.876; PR AUC = 0.788). Grade recode, age, primary site, time from diagnosis to treatment initiation, and total number of malignant tumors were identified as distant metastasis risk factors. Diagnostic method, laterality, rural-urban continuum code, and radiation recode emerged as protective factors. The developed web calculator utilizes the MLP model for personalized risk assessments. In conclusion, the MLP machine learning model emerges as the optimal tool for predicting distant metastasis in UM patients. This model facilitates personalized risk assessments, empowering early and tailored treatment strategies.

Deep learning radiomics under multimodality explore association between muscle/fat and metastasis and survival in breast cancer patients.

Sarcopenia is correlated with poor clinical outcomes in breast cancer (BC) patients. However, there is no precise quantitative study on the correlation between body composition changes and BC metastasis and survival. The present study proposed a deep learning radiomics (DLR) approach to investigate the effects of muscle and fat on distant metastasis and death outcomes in BC patients. Image feature extraction was performed on 4th thoracic vertebra (T4) and 11th thoracic vertebra (T11) on computed tomography (CT) image levels by DLR, and image features were combined with clinical information to predict distant metastasis in BC patients. Clinical information combined with DLR significantly predicted distant metastasis in BC patients. In the test cohort, the area under the curve of model performance on clinical information combined with DLR was 0.960 (95% CI: 0.942-0.979, P < 0.001). The patients with distant metastases had a lower pectoral muscle index in T4 (PMI/T4) than in patients without metastases. PMI/T4 and visceral fat tissue area in T11 (VFA/T11) were independent prognostic factors for the overall survival in BC patients. The pectoralis muscle area in T4 (PMA/T4) and PMI/T4 is an independent prognostic factor for distant metastasis-free survival in BC patients. The current study further confirmed that muscle/fat of T4 and T11 levels have a significant effect on the distant metastasis of BC. Appending the network features of T4 and T11 to the model significantly enhances the prediction performance of distant metastasis of BC, providing a valuable biomarker for the early treatment of BC patients.

Surveillance for Distant Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients Who Underwent Contemporary Management: A Report from the Korean Breast Cancer Society Survivor Research Group.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend against the use of routine imaging tests to detect distant metastasis in asymptomatic breast cancer patients. However, recent advancements in effective therapeutics and diagnostic accuracy have raised the need to reassess the clinical efficacy of intensive metastasis surveillance. We report the results of a multicenter retrospective study to investigate the association between intensive imaging studies and survival outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 4130 patients who underwent surgery from 11 hospitals in Korea between January 2010 and December 2011. Patients were divided into two groups on the basis of the intensity of metastasis imaging studies during their disease-free period. The types and intervals of the imaging studies were based on each physician's decisions. RESULTS: High-intensive screening showed a shorter distant metastasis-free survival [p < 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.04], especially for patients in whom bone or lung was the first site of metastasis. With a median follow-up period of 110.0 months, the 5-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rate was 96.5%. The high-intensity screening group showed significantly poorer BCSS compared with the low-intensity screening group (p < 0.001, HR 3.13; 95% CI 2.32-4.21). However, both multivariable analysis and propensity score matching analysis showed no significant association between the screening intensity and BCSS. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent imaging studies to detect distant metastasis were associated with earlier detection of distant metastasis, especially for lung and bone metastasis. However, intensive surveillance showed no apparent association with BCSS despite the use of currently available treatments.

Clinical Impact of Conversion Surgery After Induction Therapy for Esophageal Cancer with Synchronous Distant Metastasis: A Multi-institutional Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The standard treatment for advanced esophageal cancer with synchronous distant metastasis is systemic chemotherapy or immunotherapy. Conversion surgery is not established for esophageal cancer with synchronous distant metastasis. This study aimed to investigate the clinical impact of conversion surgery for esophageal cancer with synchronous distant metastasis after induction therapy. METHODS: This multi-institutional retrospective study enrolled 66 patients with advanced esophageal cancer, including synchronous distant metastasis, who underwent induction chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy followed by conversion surgery between 2005 and 2021. Short- and long-term outcomes were investigated. RESULTS: Distant lymph node (LN) metastasis occurred in 51 patients (77%). Distant organ metastasis occurred in 15 (23%) patients. There were 41 patients with metastatic para-aortic LNs, and 10 patients with other metastatic LNs. Organs with distant metastasis included the lung in seven patients, liver in seven patients, and liver and lung in one patient. For 61 patients (92%), R0 resection was achieved. The postoperative complication rate was 47%. The in-hospital mortality rate was 1%, and the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates for all the patients were 32.4% and 24.4%, respectively. The OS rates were similar between the patients with distant LN metastasis and the patients with distant organ metastasis (3-year OS: 34.9% vs. 26.7%; P = 0.435). Multivariate analysis showed that pathologic nodal status is independently associated with a poor prognosis (hazard ratio, 2.43; P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Conversion surgery after chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer with synchronous distant metastasis is feasible and promising. It might be effective for improving the long-term prognosis for patients with controlled nodal status.

Survival After Contralateral Axillary Metastasis in Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Despite stage IV categorization, survival outcomes for breast cancer patients who experience contralateral axillary lymph node metastasis (CAM) remain uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes for patients with metachronous CAM to provide insights into its prognosis and treatment recommendations. METHODS: This study retrospectively reviewed medical records of patients who underwent curative surgery for breast cancer and experienced CAM as the first site of distant metastasis (DM) during the follow-up period between January 2001 and April 2023. Survival outcomes of the CAM patients were compared with those of breast cancer patients with other DM via propensity score-matching (PSM). RESULTS: The study identified 40 breast cancer patients with metachronous CAM. The estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 39.6%, and the progression-free survival was 39.4%. The patients with CAM exhibited marginally better OS than the patients with DM (p = 0.071), but survival similar to that of the patients with isolated supraclavicular node recurrence (SCN) (p = 0.509). Moreover, matching of CAM with DM using two PSM models showed a consistently insignificant survival difference (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; p = 0.124 vs. HR, 1.19; p = 0.542). Ipsilateral breast tumor recurrences (IBTRs) were experienced by 12 patients before or concurrently with the CAM. These patients exhibited significantly better survival than the remaining patients (HR, 0.28; p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: The breast cancer patients with CAM showed survival similar to that for the patients with DM, supporting the current stage IV classification of the CAM. However, CAM associated with IBTR exhibited superior survival outcomes, suggesting that this subset of CAM may benefit from treatments with curative intent.

Accuracy of World Health Organisation-grade parameters (necrosis and mitotic activity) and foci of vascular invasion in predicting prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma. A case-control validation study.

AIMS: Tumour necrosis and/or increased mitoses define high-grade papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). It is unclear whether angioinvasion is prognostic for PTC. Cut-offs at five or more mitoses/2 mm2 and four or more angioinvasive foci have been empirically defined based upon data from all forms of aggressive non-anaplastic thyroid carcinomas. Performance of tumour necrosis, mitoses and vascular invasion in predicting distant metastases when specifically applied to PTC is undefined. METHODS: We analysed 50 consecutive PTC cases with distant metastases (DM-PTC): 16 synchronous and 34 metachronous. A total of 108 non-metastatic PTC (N-DM-PTC, 15.0-year median follow-up) were used as controls. Invasive encapsulated follicular variant PTC was excluded. Necrosis, mitoses and angioinvasion were quantified. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analyses determined best sensitivity and specificity cut-offs predictive of distant metastases. RESULTS: Metastases correlated with necrosis (any extent = 43.8% all DM-PTC, 53.1% metachronous DM-PTC versus 5% N-DM-PTC; P < 0.001), mitoses (P < 0.001) and angioinvasion (P < 0.001). Mitoses at five or more per 2 mm2 was the best cut-off correlating with distant metastases: sensitivity/specificity 42.9%/97.2% all DM-PTC (AUC = 0.78), 18.8%/97.2% synchronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.63), 54.6%/97.2% metachronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.85). Angioinvasive foci at five or more was the best cut-off correlating with distant metastases: sensitivity/specificity 36.2%/91.7% all DM-PTC (AUC = 0.75), 25%/91.7% synchronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.79) and 41.9%/91.7% metachronous DM-PTC (AUC = 0.73). Positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) were: necrosis 22.6%/98.2%; five or more mitoses 32.3%/98.2%; five or more angioinvasive foci 11.8%/97.9%. After multivariable analysis, only necrosis and mitotic activity remained associated with DM-PTC. CONCLUSION: Our data strongly support PTC grading, statistically validating World Health Organisation (WHO) criteria to identify poor prognosis PTC. Angioinvasion is not an independent predictor of DM-PTC.

Radiation therapy of breast cancer in the Nahe Breast Center: first results of an analysis in the context of health services research.

BACKGROUND: The first evaluation of radiotherapy results in patients with breast cancer treated as part of a multimodal oncologic therapy in the Nahe Breast Center is presented. Analysis of the results was performed using an in-practice registry. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From September 2016 to December 2017, 138 patients (median age 62.5 years; range 36-94 years) with breast cancer (right side, n = 67; left side, n = 71) received adjuvant radiation therapy. Of these, 103 patients received gyneco-oncologic care at the Nahe Breast Center, and 35 were referred from outside breast centers. The distribution into stages was as follows: stage I, n = 48; stage II, n = 68; stage III, n = 19; stage IV, n = 3. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy was given to 19 and adjuvant chemotherapy to 50 patients. Endocrine treatment was given to 120 patients. Both 3D conformal (n = 103) and intensity-modulated (n = 35) radiotherapy were performed with a modern linear accelerator. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 60 months (1-67), local recurrence occurred in 4/138 (2.9%) and distant metastasis in 8/138 (5.8%) patients; 7/138 (5.1%) patients died of their tumors during the follow-up period. The actuarial 5­year local recurrence-free survival of all patients was 97.1%, and the actuarial 5­year overall survival of all patients was 94.9%. We observed no grade 3 or 4 radiogenic side effects. CONCLUSION: The results of radiotherapy for breast carcinoma at the Nahe Breast Center are comparable to published national and international results. In particular, the local recurrence rates in our study, determined absolutely and actuarially, are excellent, and demonstrate the usefulness of radiotherapy.

Whole-pelvic irradiation with boost to involved nodes and prostate in node-positive prostate cancer-long-term data from the prospective PLATIN-2 trial.

PURPOSE: Node-positive prostate cancer is a potentially curable disease. Definitive radiotherapy to the prostate and lymphatic drainage is an effective treatment option but prospective long-term outcome data are scarce. Thus, the current study aimed to evaluate the toxicity and efficacy of definitive radiation therapy for men with prostate cancer and nodal metastases using modern irradiation techniques. METHODS: A total of 40 treatment-naïve men with node-positive prostate cancer were allocated to the trial. All patients received definitive radiation therapy at two German university hospitals between 2009 and 2018. Radiation was delivered as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with 51 Gy to the lymphatic drainage with simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) up to 61.2 Gy to involved nodes and 76.5 Gy to the prostate in 34 fractions. Feasibility and safety, overall and progression-free survival, toxicity, and quality of life measurements were analyzed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 79 months, median overall survival was 107 months and progression-free survival was 78 months. Based on imaging follow-up, no infield relapse was reported during the first 24 months of follow-up. There were 3 (8%) potentially treatment-related grade 3 toxicities. Common iliac node involvement was associated with a higher risk of progression (HR 15.8; 95% CI 2.1-119.8; p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Definitive radiation to the lymphatic drainage with SIB to the involved nodes and prostate is a safe and effective treatment approach for patients with treatment-naïve, node-positive prostate cancer with excellent infield tumor control rates and tolerable toxicity. Location rather than number of involved nodes is a major risk factor for progression.

Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have developed distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, while there is rear related nomogram to predict the prognosis. METHODS: Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed of ICC with distant metastasis were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2005 to 2019. Finally, patients diagnosed as ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2014 to 2019 were collected for external verification. All data were divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the prediction accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS: This study finally included 572 ICC with distant metastasis patients, another 32 patients collected by the author's hospital were used as external verification. Results showed that age, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, and nomogram was established. The AUC of predicting 3, 6, 9-month overall survival were 0.866, 0.841 and 0.786. The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram has good accuracy in predicting prognosis of DM-ICC patients, which would be of good significance to improve the prognosis of these patients.

Diagnostic performance of additional imaging tests for staging purposes in a bicentric German series of low-risk early breast cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Low-risk early breast cancer rarely leads to the development of metastatic disease, and in these patients, additional imaging test is controversial. The aim of our study was to evaluate the conventional staging procedures in a bicentric German series of low-risk breast carcinoma patients. METHODS: Retrospective evaluation of all patients diagnosed with early, low-risk breast cancer at Saarland University Hospital and Freiburg University Hospital in 2017 was performed. Clinical patient characteristics, the number and type of additional imaging examinations, follow-up examinations, and results were evaluated. The detection rate of metastases and the rate of false-positive findings were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 203 patients were included, with all patients received at least one additional imaging test. Initially, a total of 562 additional imaging examinations were performed: 166 chest X-rays, 169 upper abdominal ultrasounds, 199 bone scans, 27 computer tomographies (CT) chest and abdomen, and 1 CT abdomen. 6.8% of patients had abnormal findings reported, requiring 38 additional imaging examinations. One patient (0.5%) was found to have bone metastases. The rate of false-positive findings in the performed additional imaging procedures was 6.6%. CONCLUSION: Metastatic disease was detected in one of 203 patients with low-risk early breast cancer. A total of 562 examinations and additional 38 follow-up examinations were performed without detection of metastasis (this corresponds to approximately 3 examinations/patient). The rate of false-positive findings was 6.6%. The performance of additional imaging procedures for detection of distant metastases should be critically reconsidered in patients with low-risk early breast cancer.

Risk factor analysis of distant metastases in patients with primary medullary thyroid cancer: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Medullary thyroid carcinoma has a high rate of recurrence and distant metastasis. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with primary medullary thyroid carcinoma. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with primary medullary thyroid cancer between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patient demographics and tumor clinicopathological features were evaluated to identify potential risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with primary medullary thyroid cancer. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine independent risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with primary medullary thyroid carcinoma. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS statistical software (version 27.0). A two-tailed P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: We collected 685 patients with primary medullary thyroid carcinoma, 40 of whom (5.84%) developed distant metastases. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that except marital status, age, sex, race, pT stage, N stage, multifocal and capsular infiltration were significantly correlated with distant metastasis of medullary thyroid carcinoma. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that patients aged ≤ 18 years or > 55 years, Black race, higher pT stage and N stage were independent risk factors for distant metastasis of medullary thyroid carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that ≤ 18 years or > 55 years, black race, higher pT stage and N stage were significantly associated with distant metastasis of medullary thyroid cancer. This is important for clinicians to identify patients at high risk of distant metastasis in a timely manner.

Clinicopathological features of differentiated thyroid carcinoma as predictors of the effects of radioactive iodine therapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) usually have an excellent prognosis; however, 5 %-15 % develop radioactive iodine-refractory (RAIR) DTC (RAIR-DTC), which has a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of RAIR-DTC in order to provide clinical evidence for timely prediction of the effects of iodine therapy. METHODS: Clinicopathological data for 44 patients with RAIR-DTC and 50 patients with radioiodine-avid DTC (RAIA-DTC) were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors for RAIR-DTC were evaluated and a RAIR-DTC prediction model was established. RESULTS: RAIR-DTC showed unique clinicopathological features that differed from those of RAIA-DTC; these included age >55 years, a high-risk histological subtype, a large tumor size, a late TNM stage, calcification, distant metastasis, and more than six metastatic lymph nodes. Patients with RAIR-DTC also developed earlier tumor progression. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that distant metastasis, a high-risk histological subtype, and a maximum tumor diameter of ≥12.5 mm were independent risk factors for RAIR-DTC, and the specificity and sensitivity of a combination of these three parameters for the prediction of RAIR-DTC were 98.0 % and 56.8 %, respectively. Decision curve analysis and the calibration curve revealed that the combined prediction of these three parameters had good repeatability and accuracy. CONCLUSION: The clinicopathological features of DTC can effectively predict the effects of iodine therapy. A combination of distant metastasis, a high-risk histological subtype, and a maximum tumor diameter of ≥12.5 mm showed significantly higher prediction accuracy.

The value of multimodal treatment in anaplastic thyroid cancer patients with distant metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) is a rare and aggressive malignancy with a poor prognosis, particularly in patients presenting with distant metastasis (DM). This study aimed to assess the effect of combination treatment strategies on survival in ATC patients with DM. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify primary ATC cases with DM at diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for survival. RESULTS: Of the 315 ATC patients with DM included in the study, surgery to the primary tumor, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and lung metastasis were identified as independent risk factors for survival. Patients who received primary tumor surgery plus chemotherapy or surgery plus chemoradiation exhibited a superior outcome compared to those who received only one treatment modality. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that a combination treatment approach, particularly surgery combined with radiotherapy or surgery combined with chemoradiotherapy, may provide the most optimal treatment option for ATC patients with DM. These results may provide some evidence for clinical decision making, but larger sample cohorts are still needed for validation.

The preliminary analysis of lymphatic flow around the connective tissues surrounding SMA and SpA elucidates patients' oncological condition in borderline-resectable pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: In pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), invasion of connective tissues surrounding major arteries is a crucial prognostic factor after radical resection. However, why the connective tissues invasion is associated with poor prognosis is not well understood. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2018 to 2020, 25 patients receiving radical surgery for PDAC in our institute were enrolled. HyperEye Medical System (HEMS) was used to examine lymphatic flow from the connective tissues surrounding SMA and SpA and which lymph nodes ICG accumulated in was examined. RESULTS: HEMS imaging revealed ICG was transported down to the paraaortic area of the abdominal aorta along SMA. In pancreatic head cancer, 9 paraaortic lymph nodes among 14 (64.3%) were ICG positive, higher positivity than LN#15 (25.0%) or LN#18 (50.0%), indicating lymphatic flow around the SMA was leading directly to the paraaortic lymph nodes. Similarly, in pancreatic body and tail cancer, the percentage of ICG-positive LN #16a2 was very high, as was that of #8a, although that of #7 was only 42.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary result indicated that the lymphatic flow along the connective tissues surrounding major arteries could be helpful in understanding metastasis and improving prognosis in BR-A pancreatic cancer.

Expression of IDO1 in Tumor Microenvironment Significantly Predicts the Risk of Recurrence/Distant Metastasis for Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

In this study, we aimed to explore immune markers predicting locoregional recurrence/distant metastasis (R/M) for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) post-surgical intervention by using a novel high-throughput spatial tool to quantify multiple immune proteins expressed in ESCC and lymphocytes in tumor microenvironment (TME-L). First, formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues from surgical patients with ESCC (n = 94) were constructed on a microarray, which was then divided into discovery (n = 36) and validation cohorts (n = 58). Using a newly developed GeoMx digital spatial profiling tool, 31 immune proteins in paired ESCC and TME-L, morphologically segmented by PANCK and CD45, respectively, from the discovery cohort were quantified, releasing 2,232 variables. Next, the correlation matrix was analyzed using the Corrplot package in R Studio, resulting in 6 closely correlated clusters. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression scoring model predictive of R/M risk with superior specificity was successfully established based on the 3 following hierarchically clustered immune proteins: ARG1 in ESCC/PANCK+, STING, and IDO1 in TME-L/CD45+. Moreover, the expression of IDO1 in TME-L, rather than in ESCC, significantly predicted the R/M risk score with an area under curve of 0.9598. In addition, its correlation with R/M status was further validated by dual immunohistochemistry staining of IDO1 and CD45 in discovery and validation cohorts. Above all, our findings not only provide a more accurate scoring approach based on quantitative immune proteins for the prediction of R/M risk, but also propose that IDO1 in TME-L potentially plays a driving role in mediating R/M in ESCC.

Targeting CD73 increases therapeutic response to immunogenic chemotherapy by promoting dendritic cell maturation.

The CD39-CD73-adenosinergic pathway converts adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to adenosine for inhibiting anti-tumor immune responses. Therefore, targeting CD73 to reinvigorate anti-tumor immunity is considered the novel cancer immunotherapy to eradicate tumor cells. To fully understand the critical role of CD39/CD73 in colon adenocarcinoma (COAD), this study aims to comprehensive investigate the prognostic significance of CD39 and CD73 in stage I-IV COAD. Our data demonstrated that CD73 staining strongly marked malignant epithelial cells and CD39 was highly expressed in stromal cells. Attractively, tumor CD73 expression was significantly associated with tumor stage and the risk of distant metastasis, which suggested CD73 was as an independent factor for colon adenocarcinoma patients in univariate COX analysis [HR = 1.465, 95%CI = 1.084-1.978, p = 0.013]; however, high stromal CD39 in COAD patients was more likely to have favorable survival outcome [HR = 1.458, p = 1.103-1.927, p = 0.008]. Notably, high CD73 expression in COAD patients showed poor response to adjuvant chemotherapy and high risk of distant metastasis. High CD73 expression was inversely associated with less infiltration of CD45+ and CD8+ immune cells. However, administration with anti-CD73 antibodies significantly increased the response to oxaliplatin (OXP). Blockade of CD73 signaling synergistically enhanced OXP-induced ATP release, which is a marker of immunogenic cell death (ICD), promotes dendritic cell maturation and immune cell infiltration. Moreover, the risk of colorectal cancer lung metastasis was also decreased. Taken together, the present study revealed tumor CD73 expression inhibited the recruitment of immune cells and correlated with a poor prognosis in COAD patients, especially patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. Targeting CD73 to markedly increased the therapeutic response to chemotherapy and inhibited lung metastasis. Therefore, tumor CD73 may be an independent prognostic factor as well as the potential of therapeutic target for immunotherapy to benefit colon adenocarcinoma patients.

Routine and interval detection of locoregional breast cancer recurrences and risk of subsequent distant metastasis.

PURPOSE: Follow-up for breast cancer survivors consists of after care and surveillance. The benefits of routine surveillance visits remain debatable. In this study we compared the severity of locoregional recurrences (LRRs) and the subsequent risk of a distant metastasis (DM) between LRRs detected at routine and interval visits. METHODS: Women diagnosed with early breast cancer between 2003 and 2008 in one of the 15 participating hospitals, and who developed a LRR as first event after primary treatment, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (Cohort A). Chi-squared tests were used to compare the severity of routine- and interval-detected local recurrences (LRs) and regional recurrences (RRs), using tumor size, tumor grade, and number of positive lymph nodes. Data on the development of a subsequent DM after a LRR were available for a subset of patients (Cohort B). Cohort B was used to estimate the association between way of LRR-detection and risk of a DM. RESULTS: Cohort A consisted of 109 routine- and 113 interval-LRR patients. The severity of routine-detected LRs or RRs and interval-detected LRs or RRs did not significantly differ. Cohort B consisted of 66 routine- and 61 interval-LRR patients. Sixteen routine- (24%) and 17 (28%) interval-LRR patients developed a DM. After adjustment, way of LRR-detection was not significantly associated with the risk of a DM (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 0.49-3.06). CONCLUSION: The current study showed that routine visits did not lead to less severe LRRs and did not decrease the risk of a subsequent DM.

A prediction model for distant metastasis after isolated locoregional recurrence of breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The impact of progesterone receptor (PR) status on the prognosis of breast cancer after isolated locoregional recurrence (ILRR) remains unclear. This study evaluated the impact of clinicopathologic factors, including PR status of ILRR, on distant metastasis (DM) after ILRR. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 306 patients with ILRR diagnosed at the National Cancer Center Hospital between 1993 and 2021 from the database. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to examine factors associated with DM after ILRR. We developed a risk prediction model based on the number of detected risk factors and estimated survival curves using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 4.7 years after ILRR diagnosis, 86 patients developed DM, and 50 died. Multivariate analysis revealed that seven risk factors were associated with poor distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS): estrogen receptor-positive/PR-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative ILRR, short disease-free interval, recurrence site other than ipsilateral breast, no-resection of ILRR tumor, chemotherapy for the primary tumor, nodal stage in the primary tumor, and no endocrine therapy for ILRR. The predictive model classified patients into 4 groups based on the number of risk factors: low-, intermediate-, high-, and the highest-risk groups with 0 to 1, 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 7 factors, respectively. This revealed significant variation in DMFS among the groups. A higher number of the risk factors was associated with poorer DMFS. CONCLUSION: Our prediction model, which considered the ILRR receptor status, may contribute to the development of a treatment strategy for ILRR.

Machine learning algorithms are comparable to conventional regression models in predicting distant metastasis of follicular thyroid carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: Distant metastasis often indicates a poor prognosis, so early screening and diagnosis play a significant role. Our study aims to construct and verify a predictive model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms that can estimate the risk of distant metastasis of newly diagnosed follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC). DESIGN: This was a retrospective study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. PATIENTS: A total of 5809 FTC patients were included in the data analysis. Among them, there were 214 (3.68%) cases with distant metastasis. METHOD: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (LR) analyses were used to determine independent risk factors. Seven commonly used ML algorithms were applied for predictive model construction. We used the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to select the best ML algorithm. The optimal model was trained through 10-fold cross-validation and visualized by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Finally, we compared it with the traditional LR method. RESULTS: In terms of predicting distant metastasis, the AUROCs of the seven ML algorithms were 0.746-0.836 in the test set. Among them, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) had the best prediction performance, with an AUROC of 0.836 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.775-0.897). After 10-fold cross-validation, its predictive power could reach the best [AUROC: 0.855 (95% CI: 0.803-0.906)], which was slightly higher than the classic binary LR model [AUROC: 0.845 (95% CI: 0.818-0.873)]. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost approach was comparable to the conventional LR method for predicting the risk of distant metastasis for FTC.

Analysis of risk characteristics for metachronous metastasis in different period of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the main risk factors for metachronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in different periods after radiotherapy and estimate the weight of various factors in the early or late metachronous metastasis (EMM/LMM) groups. METHODS: This retrospective registry consists of 4434 patients with newly diagnosed NPC. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the independent significance of various risk factors. The Interactive Risk Attributable Program (IRAP) was used to calculate the attributable risks (ARs) for metastatic patients during different periods. RESULTS: Among 514 metastatic patients, 346 (67.32%) patients diagnosed with metastasis within 2 years after treatment were classified into the EMM group, while other 168 patients were classified into the LMM group. The ARs of T-stage, N-stage, pre-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA, post-EBV DNA, age, sex, pre-neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, pre-platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, pre-hemoglobin (HB), and post-HB were 20.19, 67.25, 2.81, 14.28, 18.50, - 11.17%, 14.54, 9.60, 3.74% and - 9.79%, respectively, in the EMM group. In the LMM group, the corresponding ARs were 3.68, 49.11, - 18.04%, 2.19, 6.11, 0.36, 4.62, 19.77, 9.57 and 7.76%, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, the total AR for tumor-related factors was 78.19%, and that for patient-related factors was 26.07% in the EMM group. In the LMM group, the total AR of tumor-related factors was 43.85%, while the weights of patient-related factors was 39.97%. In addition, except for these identified tumor- and patient-related factors, other unevaluated factors played a more important role in patients with late metastasis, with the weight increasing by 15.77%, from 17.76% in the EMM group to 33.53% in the LMM group. CONCLUSION: Most metachronous metastatic NPC cases occurred in the first 2 years after treatment. Early metastasis was mainly affected by tumor-related factors, which accounted for a declining percentage in the LMM group.