Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world.

Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5 °C (refs. 2-7). Here we use a global energy systems model8 to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2 °C carbon budget9, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3 per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale.

Does the Emission Trading Scheme achieve the dual dividend of reducing pollution and improving energy efficiency? Micro evidence from China.

Resolving the negative externality of environmental pollution has always been a concern in both the theoretical and practical space. To stimulate enterprises to participate in environmental governance actively, China has implemented a series of environmental regulation policies. The Emission Trading Pilot Scheme (ETPS) is an example of such policies implemented to ensure the gradual transition toward marketization. From a micro-enterprise perspective, the study examines how this policy achieves the dual effects of reducing emissions and promoting energy efficiency. We further explore potential channels through which this policy influences the dual effects. We empirically find ETPS to reduce the pollution emissions of enterprises significantly. However, the pollution reduction effect is mainly achieved by encouraging enterprises to strengthen cleaner production rather than through end governance. In addition to bringing environmental dividends, we observe ETPS to improve fossil energy efficiency by about 7.5% indirectly. We conclude by urging policy makers and participants to optimize energy structures and adjust intermediate input as they serve as significant pathways through which ETPS can affect fossil energy efficiency. The ETPS can encourage enterprises to actively step out of their "comfort zone" of environmental governance to be viewed as an effective environmental regulation policy.

Creating a national citizen engagement process for energy policy.

This paper examines some of the science communication challenges involved when designing and conducting public deliberation processes on issues of national importance. We take as our illustrative case study a recent research project investigating public values and attitudes toward future energy system change for the United Kingdom. National-level issues such as this are often particularly difficult to engage the public with because of their inherent complexity, derived from multiple interconnected elements and policy frames, extended scales of analysis, and different manifestations of uncertainty. With reference to the energy system project, we discuss ways of meeting a series of science communication challenges arising when engaging the public with national topics, including the need to articulate systems thinking and problem scale, to provide balanced information and policy framings in ways that open up spaces for reflection and deliberation, and the need for varied methods of facilitation and data synthesis that permit access to participants' broader values. Although resource intensive, national-level deliberation is possible and can produce useful insights both for participants and for science policy.

Interrogating Social Sustainability in the Biofuels Sector in Latin America: Tensions Between Global Standards and Local Experiences in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia.

Across the Americas, biofuels production systems are diverse due to geographic conditions, historical patterns of land tenure, different land use patterns, government policy frameworks, and relations between the national state and civil society, all of which shape the role that biofuels play in individual nations. Although many national governments throughout the Americas continue to incentivize growth of the biofuels industry, one key challenge for biofuels sustainability has been concern about its social impacts. In this article, we discuss some of the key social issues and tensions related to the recent expansion of biofuels production in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. We argue that a process of "simplification" of ecological and cultural diversity has aided the expansion of the biofuels frontier in these countries, but is also undermining their viability. We consider the ability of governments and non-state actors in multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSI) to address social and environmental concerns that affect rural livelihoods as a result of biofuels expansion. We analyze the tensions between global sustainability standards, national level policies for biofuels development, and local level impacts and visions of sustainability. We find that both government and MSI efforts to address sustainability concerns have limited impact, and recommend greater incorporation of local needs and expertise to improve governance.

Policies for the Sustainable Development of Biofuels in the Pan American Region: A Review and Synthesis of Five Countries.

Rapid growth of biofuel production in the United States and Brazil over the past decade has increased interest in replicating this success in other nations of the Pan American region. However, the continued use of food-based feedstock such as maize is widely seen as unsustainable and is in some cases linked to deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions, raising further doubts about long-term sustainability. As a result, many nations are exploring the production and use of cellulosic feedstock, though progress has been extremely slow. In this paper, we will review the North-South axis of biofuel production in the Pan American region and its linkage with the agricultural sectors in five countries. Focus will be given to biofuel policy goals, their results to date, and consideration of sustainability criteria and certification of producers. Policy goals, results, and sustainability will be highlighted for the main biofuel policies that have been enacted at the national level. Geographic focus will be given to the two largest producers-the United States and Brazil; two smaller emerging producers-Argentina and Canada; and one stalled program-Mexico. However, several additional countries in the region are either producing or planning to produce biofuels. We will also review alternative international governance schemes for biofuel sustainability that have been recently developed, and whether the biofuel programs are being managed to achieve improved environmental quality and sustainable development.

The role of agency partnerships in collaborative watershed groups: lessons from the pacific northwest experience.

Collaborative watershed group experiences reveal commonalities in their approaches to facilitate decentralized and inclusive watershed planning and management in the United States, and increasingly around the world. Although watershed groups are widely recognized in the United States for positive accomplishments across local, state, and regional scales, the role of government agencies as watershed group partners often remains ambiguous and inconsistent. This paper details results of a survey used to determine the status of Pacific Northwest (PNW) watershed group-agency partnerships relative to planning and management. Specific inquiry was directed toward: (1) the role of technical information flow; and (2) watershed group needs. Mail surveys were administered to 304 watershed group participants in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Sixty-nine percent of the surveys were completed and returned. Based on the collected survey data, PNW watershed groups rely heavily on agency officials for technical watershed information. Respondents perceive support of state government to be the highest relative to federal agencies, local governments, and university Extension offices. However, evidence from the survey suggests that partnerships are underutilized across all agencies and organizations concurrently vested in watershed planning and management in the PNW. Sustained operational funding, increased group participation, and baseline watershed data are the most pressing needs of PNW watershed groups and present a significant opportunity for expanding watershed group-agency partnerships.

Evaluating the benefits of commercial building energy codes and improving federal incentives for code adoption.

The federal government has the goal of decreasing commercial building energy consumption and pollutant emissions by incentivizing the adoption of commercial building energy codes. Quantitative estimates of code benefits at the state level that can inform the size and allocation of these incentives are not available. We estimate the state-level climate, environmental, and health benefits (i.e., social benefits) and reductions in energy bills (private benefits) of a more stringent code (ASHRAE 90.1-2010) relative to a baseline code (ASHRAE 90.1-2007). We find that reductions in site energy use intensity range from 93 MJ/m(2) of new construction per year (California) to 270 MJ/m(2) of new construction per year (North Dakota). Total annual benefits from more stringent codes total $506 million for all states, where $372 million are from reductions in energy bills, and $134 million are from social benefits. These total benefits range from $0.6 million in Wyoming to $49 million in Texas. Private benefits range from $0.38 per square meter in Washington State to $1.06 per square meter in New Hampshire. Social benefits range from $0.2 per square meter annually in California to $2.5 per square meter in Ohio. Reductions in human/environmental damages and future climate damages account for nearly equal shares of social benefits.

Decision support framework for developing regional energy strategies.

In an effort to reduce "carbon pollution" as well as prepare the U.S. for the impacts of climate change, President Obama's 2013 Climate Action Plan calls for changes to be made to the nation's energy system. In addition to focusing on alternative portfolios of different fuels and power-generation technologies, researchers and advisory panels have urged that changes to the nation's energy system be based on a decision-making framework that incorporates stakeholders and accounts for real-world resource, supply, and demand constraints. To date, research and development on such a framework have proven elusive. The research reported here describes the development and test of a potential decision support framework that combines elements from structured decision-making (SDM) with portfolio analysis, methods that have been used independently to elicit preferences in complex decision contexts. This hybrid framework aimed to (1) provide necessary background information to users regarding the development of coupled climate-energy strategies; (2) account for users' values and objectives; (3) allow for the construction of bespoke energy portfolios bounded by real-world supply and demand constraints; and (4) provide a more rigorous basis for addressing trade-offs. Results show that this framework was user-friendly, led to significant increases in users' knowledge about energy systems and, importantly, led to more internally consistent decisions. For these reasons, this framework may serve as a suitable template for supporting decisions about energy transitions in the United States and abroad.

Hot air ablowin! 'Media-speak', social conflict, and the Australian 'decoupled' wind farm controversy.

In work in science, technology, and society social conflict around wind farms has a growing profile, not least because it draws our attention to two key interrelated themes: 'science, technology and governance' and 'socio-technological systems'. In this article on Australian wind farm development and siting, these themes are highlighted in contexts of sustainability, legitimacy, and competency for policy effectiveness. There is enduring social conflict around wind farms at the local community level, but little government understanding of this conflict or willingness to respond adequately to resolve it. This article examines the conflict through the lens of print media analysis. A key finding of the five identified is that people seeing wind farms as spoiling a sense of place is a primary cause of enduring social conflict at the local community level around wind farms, alongside significant environmental issues and inadequate community engagement; this finding also indicates a central reason for the highly problematic state of Australian wind energy transitions. In turn, by identifying this problematic situation as one of a significantly 'decoupled' and 'dysfunctional' condition of the Australian socio-technological wind farm development and siting system, I suggest remedies including those of a deliberative nature that also respond to the Habermas-Mouffe debate. These inform a socio-technical siting approach or pathway to better respect and navigate contested landscapes for enhanced renewable energy transitions at the local level.

Occupational safety and health, green chemistry, and sustainability: a review of areas of convergence.

With increasing numbers and quantities of chemicals in commerce and use, scientific attention continues to focus on the environmental and public health consequences of chemical production processes and exposures. Concerns about environmental stewardship have been gaining broader traction through emphases on sustainability and "green chemistry" principles. Occupational safety and health has not been fully promoted as a component of environmental sustainability. However, there is a natural convergence of green chemistry/sustainability and occupational safety and health efforts. Addressing both together can have a synergistic effect. Failure to promote this convergence could lead to increasing worker hazards and lack of support for sustainability efforts. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has made a concerted effort involving multiple stakeholders to anticipate and identify potential hazards associated with sustainable practices and green jobs for workers. Examples of potential hazards are presented in case studies with suggested solutions such as implementing the hierarchy of controls and prevention through design principles in green chemistry and green building practices. Practical considerations and strategies for green chemistry, and environmental stewardship could benefit from the incorporation of occupational safety and health concepts which in turn protect affected workers.