Ending extreme poverty has a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions.

Growing consumption is both necessary to end extreme poverty1and one of the main drivers of greenhouse gas emissions2, creating a potential tension between alleviating poverty and limiting global warming. Most poverty reduction has historically occurred because of economic growth3-6, which means that reducing poverty entails increasing not only the consumption of people living in poverty but also the consumption of people with a higher income. Here we estimate the emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty using the international poverty line of US $2.15 per day (ref. 7). Even with historical energy- and carbon-intensity patterns, the global emissions increase associated with alleviating extreme poverty is modest, at 2.37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year or 4.9% of 2019 global emissions. Lower inequality, higher energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy can ease this tension further: assuming the best historical performance, the emissions for poverty alleviation in 2050 will be reduced by 90%. More ambitious poverty lines require more economic growth in more countries, which leads to notably higher emissions. The challenge to align the development and climate objectives of the world is not in reconciling extreme poverty alleviation with climate objectives but in providing sustainable middle-income standards of living.

The relationship between urologic cancer outcomes and national Human Development Index: trend in recent years.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the influence of the socioeconomic development on worldwide age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, as well as mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and 5-year net survival of urologic cancer patients in recent years. METHODS: The Human Development Index (HDI) values were obtained from the United Nations Development Programme, data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates of prostate, bladder and kidney cancer were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database, 5-year net survival was provided by the CONCORD-3 program. We then evaluated the association between incidence/MIR/survival and HDI, with a focus on geographic variability as well as temporal patterns during the last 6 years. RESULTS: Urologic cancer incidence rates were positively correlated with HDIs, and MIRs were negatively correlated with HDIs. Prostate cancer survival also correlated positively with HDIs, solidly confirming the interrelation among cancer indicators and socioeconomic factors. Most countries experienced incidence decline over the most recent 6 years, and a substantial reduction in MIR was observed. Survival rates of prostate cancer have simultaneously improved. CONCLUSION: Development has a prominent influence on urologic cancer outcomes. HDI values are significantly correlated with cancer incidence, MIR and survival rates. HDI values have risen along with increased incidence and improved outcomes of urologic caner in recent years.

Australia is 'free to choose' economic growth and falling environmental pressures.

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Universal health coverage in Indonesia: concept, progress, and challenges.

Indonesia is a rapidly growing middle-income country with 262 million inhabitants from more than 300 ethnic and 730 language groups spread over 17 744 islands, and presents unique challenges for health systems and universal health coverage (UHC). From 1960 to 2001, the centralised health system of Indonesia made gains as medical care infrastructure grew from virtually no primary health centres to 20 900 centres. Life expectancy improved from 48 to 69 years, infant mortality decreased from 76 deaths per 1000 livebirths to 23 per 1000, and the total fertility rate decreased from 5·61 to 2·11. However, gains across the country were starkly uneven with major health gaps, such as the stagnant maternal mortality of around 300 deaths per 100 000 livebirths, and minimal change in neonatal mortality. The centralised one size fits all approach did not address the complexity and diversity in population density and dispersion across islands, diets, diseases, local living styles, health beliefs, human development, and community participation. Decentralisation of governance to 354 districts in 2001, and currently 514 districts, further increased health system heterogeneity and exacerbated equity gaps. The novel UHC system introduced in 2014 focused on accommodating diversity with flexible and adaptive implementation features and quick evidence-driven decisions based on changing needs. The UHC system grew rapidly and covers 203 million people, the largest single-payer scheme in the world, and has improved health equity and service access. With early success, challenges have emerged, such as the so-called missing-middle group, a term used to designate the smaller number of people who have enrolled in UHC in wealth quintiles Q2-Q3 than in other quintiles, and the low UHC coverage of children from birth to age 4 years. Moreover, high costs for non-communicable diseases warrant new features for prevention and promotion of healthy lifestyles, and investment in a robust integrated digital health-information system for front-line health workers is crucial for impact and sustainability. This Review describes the innovative UHC initiative of Indonesia along with the future roadmap required to meet sustainable development goals by 2030.

Prevalence of Sexual Orientation Across 28 Nations and Its Association with Gender Equality, Economic Development, and Individualism.

The prevalence of women's and men's heterosexuality, bisexuality, and homosexuality was assessed in 28 nations using data from 191,088 participants from a 2005 BBC Internet survey. Sexual orientation was measured in terms of both self-reported sexual identity and self-reported degree of same-sex attraction. Multilevel modeling analyses revealed that nations' degrees of gender equality, economic development, and individualism were not significantly associated with men's or women's sexual orientation rates across nations. These models controlled for individual-level covariates including age and education level, and nation-level covariates including religion and national sex ratios. Robustness checks included inspecting the confidence intervals for meaningful associations, and further analyses using complete-cases and summary scores of the national indices. These analyses produced the same non-significant results. The relatively stable rates of heterosexuality, bisexuality, and homosexuality observed across nations for both women and men suggest that non-social factors likely may underlie much variation in human sexual orientation. These results do not support frequently offered hypotheses that sexual orientation differences are related to gendered social norms across societies.

Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America.

We highlight the paradoxical implications of decadal reclassification of U.S. counties (and America's population) from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status between 1960 and 2017. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we show that the reclassification of U.S. counties has been a significant engine of metropolitan growth and nonmetropolitan decline. Over the study period, 753-or nearly 25% of all nonmetropolitan counties-were redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as metropolitan, shifting nearly 70 million residents from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan America by 2017. All the growth since 1970 in the metropolitan share of the U.S. population came from reclassification rather than endogenous growth in existing metropolitan areas. Reclassification of nonmetropolitan counties also had implications for drawing appropriate inferences about rural poverty, population aging, education, and economic growth. The paradox is that these many nonmetropolitan "winners"-those experiencing population and economic growth-have, over successive decades, left behind many nonmetropolitan counties with limited prospects for growth. Our study provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and economic malaise but also highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.

Estimating the Clinical Pipeline of Cell and Gene Therapies and Their Potential Economic Impact on the US Healthcare System.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate, at the indication level, durable gene and cellular therapy new product launches in the United States through 2030, and the number of treated patients. METHODS: A statistical analysis of clinical trials pipeline data and disease incidence and prevalence was conducted to estimate the impact of new cell and gene therapies. We used Citeline's® Pharmaprojects® database to estimate the rates and timing of new product launches, on the basis of the phase of development, duration in phase, and probability of progression. Disease incidence and prevalence data were combined with estimates of market adoption to project the size of reimbursed patient populations. RESULTS: We project that about 350 000 patients will have been treated with 30 to 60 products by 2030. About half the launches are expected to be in B-cell (CD-19) lymphomas and leukemias. CONCLUSIONS: Cell and gene therapies promise durable clinical benefit from a single treatment course. High upfront reimbursement for these products means that the total costs could exceed what the healthcare system can manage. This creates a need for precision financing solutions and new reimbursement models that can ensure appropriate patient access to needed treatments, increase affordability for payers, and sustain private investment in innovation.

The convergences between the Sustainable Development Goals and national agendas: the Brazilian case.

One of the criticisms against the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or 2030 Agenda is how they are decontextualized from national realities. To verify this, we worked to identify possible interfaces between the deliberations that took place at Brazilian national conferences and the 2030 Agenda, in the context of urban territories. A qualitative study was conducted using thematic analysis of the final documents produced by the national conferences on health, food and nutrition security, environment and solidarity economy (2013-2015). The study considered all 17 SDGs and the results are presented in the five Ps categories. (i) People: discussions related to this category presented more convergences than any other. (ii) Planet: water was discussed in terms of its rational use and preservation, and as a right. Patterns of consumption, production and climate change were linked to the debate on food. (iii) Partnerships: varying views were presented, some regarding them as a threat against guaranteed rights and others as a way to strengthen the national agenda. (iv) Prosperity: discussions focused on economic growth and industrialization associated to the redistribution of wealth and overcoming inequities. Cities were considered strategic in rural-urban relations. (v) Peace: the term was absent, but 'justice' was discussed in terms of rights, fair taxation and the inclusion of people in vulnerable situations. Our results demonstrated that the 2030 Agenda clearly converges with Brazil's social demands. They enabled contextualizing the SDGs and qualified the debates on their implementation, which indicate the adherence to principles of the health promotion field.

Cross-border movement, economic development and malaria elimination in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Malaria at international borders presents particular challenges with regards to elimination. International borders share common malaria ecologies, yet neighboring countries are often at different stages of the control-to-elimination pathway. Herein, we present a case study on malaria, and its control, at the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Malaria program activity reports, case data, and ancillary information have been assembled from national health information systems, archives, and other related sources. Information was analyzed as a semi-quantitative time series, between 2000 and 2017, to provide a plausibility framework to understand the possible contributions of factors related to control activities, conflict, economic development, migration, and climate. The malaria recession in the Yemeni border regions of Saudi Arabia is a likely consequence of multiple, coincidental factors, including scaled elimination activities, cross-border vector control, periods of low rainfall, and economic development. The temporal alignment of many of these factors suggests that economic development may have changed the receptivity to the extent that it mitigated against surges in vulnerability posed by imported malaria from its endemic neighbor Yemen. In many border areas of the world, malaria is likely to be sustained through a complex congruence of factors, including poverty, conflict, and migration.

Trends and socio-economic determinants of suicide in India: 2001-2013.

PURPOSE: To investigate trends and socio-economic determinants of suicide in India over the period of 2001-2013. METHOD: Suicide rates between 2001 and 2013 were calculated using suicide statistics provided by National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) and census data provided by Census of India, stratified by sex, age group, and geographical region, to investigate trends in suicide over the study period. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were specified to investigate associations between state-level indicators of economic development, education, employment and religious factors and sex-specific suicide rates. RESULTS: Male suicide rates remained relatively steady (~ 14 per 100,000) while female suicide rates decreased over the study period (9 to 7 per 100,000). The age group of 45-59 years had the highest suicide rate among males while the age group of 15-29 years had the highest suicide rate among females. On average, higher male and female suicide rates were observed in states with: higher levels of development, higher levels of agricultural employment, higher levels of literacy, and higher proportions of people identifying with Hinduism. Higher male suicide rates were also observed in states with higher levels of unemployment. CONCLUSION: The process of modernization might be contributing towards higher suicide risk in more developed parts of India. Also, increase in farmer suicides since economic liberalization might be contributing towards higher suicide rates among more agricultural regions. Furthermore, ancient sanctions towards religious suicide are possibly still influencing modern Hindu suicides.

Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health.

BACKGROUND: Disbursements of development assistance for health (DAH) have risen substantially during the past several decades. More recently, the international community's attention has turned to other international challenges, introducing uncertainty about the future of disbursements for DAH. METHODS: We collected audited budget statements, annual reports, and project-level records from the main international agencies that disbursed DAH from 1990 to the end of 2015. We standardised and combined records to provide a comprehensive set of annual disbursements. We tracked each dollar of DAH back to the source and forward to the recipient. We removed transfers between agencies to avoid double-counting and adjusted for inflation. We classified assistance into nine primary health focus areas: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, maternal health, newborn and child health, other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, Ebola, and sector-wide approaches and health system strengthening. For our statistical analysis, we grouped these health focus areas into two categories: MDG-related focus areas (HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, child and newborn health, and maternal health) and non-MDG-related focus areas (other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, sector-wide approaches, and other). We used linear regression to test for structural shifts in disbursement patterns at the onset of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs; ie, from 2000) and the global financial crisis (impact estimated to occur in 2010). We built on past trends and associations with an ensemble model to estimate DAH through the end of 2040. FINDINGS: In 2015, US$36·4 billion of DAH was disbursed, marking the fifth consecutive year of little change in the amount of resources provided by global health development partners. Between 2000 and 2009, DAH increased at 11·3% per year, whereas between 2010 and 2015, annual growth was just 1·2%. In 2015, 29·7% of DAH was for HIV/AIDS, 17·9% was for child and newborn health, and 9·8% was for maternal health. Linear regression identifies three distinct periods of growth in DAH. Between 2000 and 2009, MDG-related DAH increased by $290·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 174·3 million to 406·5 million) per year. These increases were significantly greater than were increases in non-MDG DAH during the same period (p=0·009), and were also significantly greater than increases in the previous period (p<0·0001). Between 2000 and 2009, growth in DAH was highest for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Since 2010, DAH for maternal health and newborn and child health has continued to climb, although DAH for HIV/AIDS and most other health focus areas has remained flat or decreased. Our estimates of future DAH based on past trends and associations present a wide range of potential futures, although our mean estimate of $64·1 billion (95% UI $30·4 billion to $161·8 billion) shows an increase between now and 2040, although with a large uncertainty interval. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence of two substantial shifts in DAH growth during the past 26 years. DAH disbursements increased faster in the first decade of the 2000s than in the 1990s, but DAH associated with the MDGs increased the most out of all focus areas. Since 2010, limited growth has characterised DAH and we expect this pattern to persist. Despite the fact that DAH is still growing, albeit minimally, DAH is shifting among the major health focus areas, with relatively little growth for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. These changes in the growth and focus of DAH will have critical effects on health services in some low-income countries. Coordination and collaboration between donors and domestic governments is more important than ever because they have a great opportunity and responsibility to ensure robust health systems and service provision for those most in need. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Intervention mapping to address social and economic factors impacting indigenous people's health in Suriname's interior region.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found that while internationally financed economic development projects reduced poverty when measured in terms of per capita GDP, they also caused indigenous people to become disassociated, impoverished and alienated minorities whose health status has declined to unacceptable lows when measured in terms of mercury poisoning and the burgeoning rate of suicide. In this study, we developed a needs assessment and a policy-oriented causal diagram to determine whether the impaired health of the people in this region was at least partially due to the role the country has played within the global economy. Specifically, could the health and well-being of indigenous people in Suriname be understood in terms of the foreign investment programs and economic development policies traceable to the Inter-American Development Bank's Suriname Land Management Project. METHODS: Interviews took place from 2004 through 2015 involving stakeholders with an interest in public health and economic development. A policy-oriented causal diagram was created to model a complex community health system and weave together a wide range of ideas and views captured during the interview process. RESULTS: Converting land and resources held by indigenous people into private ownership has created an active market for land, increased investment and productivity, and reduced poverty when measured in terms of per capita GDP. However, it has also caused indigenous people to become disassociated, impoverished and alienated minorities whose health status has declined to unacceptable lows. While the effects of economic development programs on the health of vulnerable indigenous communities are clear, the governance response is not. The governance response appeared to be determined less by the urgency of the public health issue or by the compelling logic of an appropriate response, and more by competing economic interests and the exercise of power. CONCLUSION: The health and well-being of the indigenous Wayana in Suriname's interior region is at least partially due to the role the country has played within the global economy. Specifically, the health and well-being of indigenous people in Suriname can be understood to be a result of foreign development bank-funded projects that drive the government of Suriname to trade land and natural resources on the global market to manage their country's balance of payments.