Primary care doctors retirements in the context of an ageing population in Italy.

Background: Ongoing shortages in primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians and increasing healthcare needs due to ageing of the population represent a great challenge for healthcare providers, managers, and policymakers. To support planning of primary healthcare resource allocation we analyzed the geographic distribution of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians across Italian regions, accounting for area-specific number and age of the population. Additionally, we estimated the number of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians expected to retire over the next 25 years, with a focus on the next five years. Study design: Ecological study. Methods: We gathered the list of Italian general practitioners and primary care paediatricians and combined them with the data from the National Federation of Medical Doctors, Surgeons and Dentists. Using data from the National Institutes of Statistics, we calculated the average number of patients per doctor for each region using the number of residents above and under 14 years of age for general practitioners and primary care paediatricians respectively. We also calculated the number of residents over-65 and over-75 years of age per general practitioner, as elderly patients typically have higher healthcare needs. Results: On average the number of patients per general practitioner was 1,447 (SD: 190), while for paediatricians it was 1,139 (SD: 241), with six regions above the threshold of 1,500 patients per general practitioner and only one region under the threshold of 880 patients per paediatrician. We estimated that on average 2,228 general practitioners and 444 paediatricians are going to retire each year for the next five years, reaching more than 70% among the current workforce for some southern regions. The number of elderly patients per general practitioner varies substantially between regions, with two regions having >15% more patients aged over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions: over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions. The study highlighted that some regions do not currently have the required primary care workforce, and the expec-ted retirements and the ageing of the population will exacerbate the pressure on the already over-stretched healthcare services. A response from healthcare administrations and policymakers is urgently required to allow equitable access to quality primary care across the country.

Estimated Effect on Life Expectancy of Alleviating Primary Care Shortages in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have reported that greater numbers of primary care physicians (PCPs) per population are associated with reduced population mortality, but the effect of increasing PCP density in areas of low density is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To estimate how alleviating PCP shortages might change life expectancy and mortality. DESIGN: Generalized additive models, mixed-effects models, and generalized estimating equations. SETTING: 3104 U.S. counties from 2010 to 2017. PARTICIPANTS: Children and adults. MEASUREMENTS: Age-adjusted life expectancy; all-cause mortality; and mortality due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, infectious disease, respiratory disease, and substance use or injury. RESULTS: Persons living in counties with less than 1 physician per 3500 persons in 2017 had a mean life expectancy that was 310.9 days shorter than for persons living in counties above that threshold. In the low-density counties (n = 1218), increasing the density of PCPs above the 1:3500 threshold would be expected to increase mean life expectancy by 22.4 days (median, 19.4 days [95% CI, 0.9 to 45.6 days]), and all such counties would require 17 651 more physicians, or about 14.5 more physicians per shortage county. If counties with less than 1 physician per 1500 persons (n = 2636) were to reach the 1:1500 threshold, life expectancy would be expected to increase by 56.3 days (median, 55.6 days [CI, 4.2 to 105.6 days]), and all such counties would require 95 754 more physicians, or about 36.3 more physicians per shortage county. LIMITATION: Some projections are based on extrapolations of the actual data. CONCLUSION: In counties with fewer PCPs per population, increases in PCP density would be expected to substantially improve life expectancy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Primary Care and Advance Workforce Research.

PURPOSE: To develop and test a machine-learning-based model to predict primary care and other specialties using Medicare claims data. METHODS: We used 2014-2016 prescription and procedure Medicare data to train 3 sets of random forest classifiers (prescription only, procedure only, and combined) to predict specialty. Self-reported specialties were condensed to 27 categories. Physicians were assigned to testing and training cohorts, and random forest models were trained and then applied to 2014-2016 data sets for the testing cohort to generate a series of specialty predictions. Comparing the predicted specialty to self-report, we assessed performance with F1 scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values. RESULTS: A total of 564,986 physicians were included. The combined model had a greater aggregate (macro) F1 score (0.876) than the prescription-only (0.745; P <.01) or procedure-only (0.821; P <.01) model. Mean F1 scores across specialties in the combined model ranged from 0.533 to 0.987. The mean F1 score was 0.920 for primary care. The mean AUROC value for the combined model was 0.992, with values ranging from 0.982 to 0.999. The AUROC value for primary care was 0.982. CONCLUSIONS: This novel approach showed high performance and provides a near real-time assessment of current primary care practice. These findings have important implications for primary care workforce research in the absence of accurate data.

Impact of the Programa Mais médicos (more doctors Programme) on primary care doctor supply and amenable mortality: quasi-experimental study of 5565 Brazilian municipalities.

BACKGROUND: Investing in human resources for health (HRH) is vital for achieving universal health care and the Sustainable Development Goals. The Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) (More Doctors Programme) provided 17,000 doctors, predominantly from Cuba, to work in Brazilian primary care. This study assesses whether PMM doctor allocation to municipalities was consistent with programme criteria and associated impacts on amenable mortality. METHODS: Difference-in-differences regression analysis, exploiting variation in PMM introduction across 5565 municipalities over the period 2008-2017, was employed to examine programme impacts on doctor density and mortality amenable to healthcare. Heterogeneity in effects was explored with respect to doctor allocation criteria and municipal doctor density prior to PMM introduction. RESULTS: After starting in 2013, PMM was associated with an increase in PMM-contracted primary care doctors of 15.1 per 100,000 population. However, largescale substitution of existing primary care doctors resulting in a net increase of only 5.7 per 100,000. Increases in both PMM and total primary care doctors were lower in priority municipalities due to lower allocation of PMM doctors and greater substitution effects. The PMM led to amenable mortality reductions of - 1.06 per 100,000 (95%CI: - 1.78 to - 0.34) annually - with greater benefits in municipalities prioritised for doctor allocation and where doctor density was low before programme implementation. CONCLUSIONS: PMM potential health benefits were undermined due to widespread allocation of doctors to non-priority areas and local substitution effects. Policies seeking to strengthen HRH should develop and implement needs-based criteria for resource allocation.

The Impacts of the ACA Medicaid Expansions on Cancer Screening Use by Primary Care Provider Supply.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies of the impacts of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions on cancer screening use have mostly found insignificant effects. We posit that these findings mask meaningful heterogeneity in impacts depending on availability of primary care providers. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impacts of the ACA Medicaid expansions on cancer screening use separately by state-level supply of primary care providers. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used data from the 2012 and 2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to measure use of mammograms, Pap smear tests, blood stool tests, and sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy for age groups recommended receiving these tests. The main analytical sample included 24,878-31,890 individuals with household income below 138% Federal Poverty Line. We used a difference-in-differences design comparing pre-post expansion changes in cancer screening use between expanding and nonexpanding states separately for 2 state groups defined by the median proportion of the state population residing in primary health professional shortage areas: low primary care provider supply (above median) and high supply (below median). RESULTS: Medicaid expansions were associated with significant increases in mammograms (11.4 percentage-points), Pap smear tests (6.9 percentage-points), and sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy use (8.3 percentage-points) in states with high supply of primary care providers. In contrast, effects were small and insignificant in low supply states. CONCLUSIONS: ACA Medicaid expansions were associated with increased cancer screening use only in states with high supply of primary care providers. Improving access for Medicaid beneficiaries in provider shortage areas may require coupling coverage expansions with supply-side interventions to increase provider availability.

Melanoma prognosis in the United States: Identifying barriers for improved care.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in melanoma mortality, disparities in melanoma survival persist. We evaluated possible sociodemographic and health care-based predictors of differences in melanoma survival in the United States by using the melanoma mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR). METHODS: State-based MIRs were calculated by using US cancer statistics data from 1999 to 2014. Pearson correlations and linear regressions were used to determine associations between MIR and dermatologist density, primary care provider density, number of physicians by state, number of National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centers, health care spending per capita, average household income, racial/ethnic makeup of the population, percentage of uninsured individuals, and percentage with a bachelor's degree. RESULTS: The mean overall MIR was 0.15 ± 0.04; only Alaska was an outlier (0.24). No state MIRs increased significantly over time; MIR decreased for most states. Multivariable analysis revealed that states with more active physicians (P = .02) and a higher percentage non-Hispanic whites (P = .004) had higher MIRs (poorer survival). Significant Pearson correlations were seen between MIR and melanoma incidence (r = -0.72, P < .001), melanoma mortality (r = 0.38, P < .001), dermatologist density (r = 0.32, P < .001), and National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center count (r = -0.12, P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma survival is improved in higher-incidence areas and areas with higher dermatologist density. These findings highlight areas of poorer melanoma survival and the need for local studies evaluating disparities in melanoma survival.

Intermediate Diabetes Outcomes in Patients Managed by Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, or Physician Assistants: A Cohort Study.

Background: Primary care provided by nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs) has been proposed as a solution to expected workforce shortages. Objective: To examine potential differences in intermediate diabetes outcomes among patients of physician, NP, and PA primary care providers (PCPs). Design: Cohort study using data from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic health record. Setting: 568 VA primary care facilities. Patients: 368 481 adult patients with diabetes treated pharmaceutically. Measurements: The relationship between the profession of the PCP (the provider the patient visited most often in 2012) and both continuous and dichotomous control of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was examined on the basis of the mean of measurements in 2013. Inverse probability of PCP type was used to balance cohort characteristics. Hierarchical linear mixed models and logistic regression models were used to analyze continuous and dichotomous outcomes, respectively. Results: The PCPs were physicians (n = 3487), NPs (n = 1445), and PAs (n = 443) for 74.9%, 18.2%, and 6.9% of patients, respectively. The difference in HbA1c values compared with physicians was -0.05% (95% CI, -0.07% to -0.02%) for NPs and 0.01% (CI, -0.02% to 0.04%) for PAs. For SBP, the difference was -0.08 mm Hg (CI, -0.34 to 0.18 mm Hg) for NPs and 0.02 mm Hg (CI, -0.42 to 0.38 mm Hg) for PAs. For LDL-C, the difference was 0.01 mmol/L (CI, 0.00 to 0.03 mmol/L) (0.57 mg/dL [CI, 0.03 to 1.11 mg/dL]) for NPs and 0.03 mmol/L (CI, 0.01 to 0.05 mmol/L) (1.08 mg/dL [CI, 0.25 to 1.91 mg/dL]) for PAs. None of these differences were clinically significant. Limitation: Most VA patients are men who receive treatment in a staff-model health care system. Conclusion: No clinically significant variation was found among the 3 PCP types with regard to diabetes outcomes, suggesting that similar chronic illness outcomes may be achieved by physicians, NPs, and PAs. Primary Funding Source: VA Health Services Research and Development.

Association Among County-Level Economic Factors, Clinician Supply, Metropolitan or Rural Location, and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome.

Importance: Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) has increased over the last 2 decades, but limited data exist on its association with economic conditions or clinician supply. Objective: To determine the association among long-term unemployment, clinician supply (as assessed by primary care and mental health clinician shortage areas), and rates of NAS and evaluate how associations differ based on rurality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ecological time-series analysis of a retrospective, repeated cross-sectional study using outcome data from all 580 counties in Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington from 2009 to 2015 and economic data from 2000 to 2015. Negative binomial models were used with year and county-level fixed effects. Interactions were tested and stratified analyses were conducted by metropolitan counties, rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties, and rural remote counties. Exposures: County-level 10-year unemployment rate and mental health and primary care clinician supply obtained from the Health Resources and Services Administration Area Health Resources Files. Main Outcomes and Measure: Rates of NAS, excluding iatrogenic withdrawal, obtained from state inpatient databases. Results: The sample included observations from 580 counties over 7 years (1803 county-years from metropolitan counties, 1268 county-years from rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties, and 927 county-years from rural remote counties). During the study period, there were 6 302 497 births and 47 224 diagnoses of NAS. The median rate of NAS was 7.1 per 1000 hospital births (interquartile range [IQR], 2.2-15.8), the 10-year unemployment rate was 7.6% (IQR, 6.4%-9.0%), and 83.9% of county-years were partial or complete mental health shortage areas. In the adjusted analyses, mental health shortage areas had higher NAS rates (unadjusted rate in shortage areas of 14.0 per 1000 births vs unadjusted rate in nonshortage areas of 10.6 per 1000 births; adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07-1.27]), occurring primarily in metropolitan counties (adjusted IRR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.16-1.40]; P = .02 for test of equivalence between metropolitan counties and rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties). There was no significant association between primary care shortage areas and rates of NAS. The 10-year unemployment rate was associated with higher rates of NAS (unadjusted rate in highest unemployment quartile of 20.1 per 1000 births vs 7.8 per 1000 births in lowest unemployment quartile; adjusted IRR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.00-1.23]) occurring primarily in rural remote counties (adjusted IRR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.05-1.70]; P = .04 for test of equivalence between metropolitan counties and rural remote counties). Conclusions and Relevance: In this ecological analysis of counties in 8 US states, there was a significant association among higher long-term unemployment, higher mental health clinician shortage areas, and higher county-level rates of neonatal abstinence syndrome.

Training for Future Generations: Innovations in the Medical Education of Physicians in North Carolina.

North Carolina's five medical schools are responding to the changing health care landscape and continued shortage of rural, primary care physicians through curricular innovations. Early indications suggest that these innovations-involving themes of longitudinal training, immersive experiences, practice transformation, and health equity promotion-will lead to a new physician workforce.

Using recruitment and selection to build a primary care workforce for the future.

Recruitment and selection are critical components of human resource management. They influence both the quantity and quality of the healthcare workforce. In this article, we use two different examples of primary care workers, General Practitioners in the UK and Community Health Workers in low- and middle- income countries, to illustrate how recruitment and selection are, and could be, used to enhance the primary care workforce in each setting. Both recruitment and selection can be costly, so when funding is limited, decisions on how to spend the human resources budget must be made. It could be argued that human resource management should focus on recruitment in a seller's market (an insufficient supply of applicants) and on selection in a buyer's market (sufficient applicants but concerns about their quality). We use this article to examine recruitment and selection in each type of market and highlight the interactions between these two human resource management decisions. Recruitment and selection, we argue, must be considered in both types of market; particularly in sectors where workers' labour impacts upon population health. We note the paucity of high-quality research in recruitment and selection for primary care and the need for rigorous study designs such as randomised trials.

Panel Size, Clinician Time in Clinic, and Access to Appointments.

Large panel sizes are often held responsible for worse access to appointments in primary care. We evaluated the relationship between appointment backlog, panel size, and primary care clinician time in clinic, using Spearman correlation and multiple regression in a retrospective analysis. We found no independent association between panel size and days until third next available appointment, but larger panel size adjusted for clinician time in clinic was associated with worse access. Less clinician time in clinic was independently associated with longer backlogs for appointments. Our findings suggest that patients of part-time clinicians may be less likely to obtain timely appointments than patients of fulltime clinicians, regardless of panel size.

[Shortage of physicians in rural areas and in the public health service : A critical analysis of the evidence on the role of medical education and training]. / Ärztemangel in der hausärztlichen Versorgung auf dem Lande und im Öffentlichen Gesundheitsdienst : Eine kritische Analyse der Evidenz bezüglich der Rolle von Aus- und Weiterbildung.

BACKGROUND: A shortage of medical personnel has been seen for several decades in at least two sectors of the healthcare system: primary care in remote areas as well as medical care in the state public health departments (Öffentliches Gesundheitswesen). Strategies to reduce these problems are being sought. OBJECTIVE: This review examines the proposals, practical initiatives and empirical studies in under- and postgraduate medical education in order to estimate their potential impact on the solution of these problems. The analysis covers both Germany and Anglo-Saxon countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study is based on a literature search in PubMed and Medline covering the last 20 years. With regard to Germany, programmatic documents and studies published in the German Journal of General Practice (Zeitschrift für Allgemeinmedizin) were also included. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Foreign empirical studies identify almost equal two factors with regard to primary care in remote areas: the recruitment of students from rural areas combined with special educational programs with a rural primary care orientation both in under- and postgraduate medical education. These programs should include several and longer practical working periods in primary care units and be well coordinated between the medical school and the local teaching physicians. As for the state public health sector, comparable initiatives are still lacking.

An estimation of staffing requirements in primary care in Oman using the Workload Indicators of Staffing Needs method.

BACKGROUND: Oman is a high-income country having a relatively small population scattered over large sparsely populated areas. This presents challenges to the provision of health services. It is important to ensure that all health facilities at all levels of care have the right number and skills mix of health workers to deliver quality health care. AIMS: The main aim was to develop national staffing norms to ensure adequate numbers, appropriate skills mix and equitable distribution of health professionals in primary health care (PHC) using the workload indicators of staffing needs (WISN) method. METHODS: All types of PHC services were itemized (promotive, preventive, curative, and rehabilitative and support services). We used 2014 data from the health information system and the human resources management information system to develop staffing norms using the WISN method. First we set the norms based on the national average for the activity standards, then simulated the norms in Muscat governorate, which has 32% of the population. RESULTS: We calculated the required numbers of GPs and specialists for PHC centres providing core as well as core and supplementary services and the expected annual outpatient attendance. The simulation showed that doctors were less workload stressed (WISN ratio 1.02) than nurses (WISN ratio 0.66) on average, although some variations between health centres were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Additional parameters (e.g. planned new services; local disease profile; change in health policies) may be added in future to re-adjust the calculation method once the health services mapping and human resources for health profiles for each governorate is completed.

Rethinking the shortage of primary care physicians.

For decades, public concerns about a shortage of physicians led federal and state policy makers to pursue policies to increase the number of medical graduates. In response, the number of medical schools increased dramatically over the past decade. By 2016, the United States produced more new physicians than ever before. Expanding medical school enrollments, however, were not matched by a corresponding increase in the number of physicians choosing primary care. To date, few policy makers questioned the conventional wisdom that more is better when it comes to the supply of primary care physicians. Instead, policy makers should consider alternative approaches to increase access to patient-centered primary care.

Implementation research: towards universal health coverage with more doctors in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the implementation of a programme to provide primary care physicians for remote and deprived populations in Brazil. METHODS: The Mais Médicos (More Doctors) programme was launched in July 2013 with public calls to recruit physicians for priority areas. Other strategies were to increase primary care infrastructure investments and to provide more places at medical schools. We conducted a quasi-experimental, before-and-after evaluation of the implementation of the programme in 1708 municipalities with populations living in extreme poverty and in remote border areas. We compared physician density, primary care coverage and avoidable hospitalizations in municipalities enrolled (n = 1450) and not enrolled (n = 258) in the programme. Data extracted from health information systems and Ministry of Health publications were analysed. FINDINGS: By September 2015, 4917 physicians had been added to the 16 524 physicians already in place in municipalities with remote and deprived populations. The number of municipalities with ≥ 1.0 physician per 1000 inhabitants doubled from 163 in 2013 to 348 in 2015. Primary care coverage in enrolled municipalities (based on 3000 inhabitants per primary care team) increased from 77.9% in 2012 to 86.3% in 2015. Avoidable hospitalizations in enrolled municipalities decreased from 44.9% in 2012 to 41.2% in 2015, but remained unchanged in control municipalities. We also documented higher infrastructure investments in enrolled municipalities and an increase in the number of medical school places over the study period. CONCLUSION: Other countries having shortages of physicians could benefit from the lessons of Brazil's programme towards achieving universal right to health.

Mobility of US Rural Primary Care Physicians During 2000-2014.

PURPOSE: Despite considerable investment in increasing the number of primary care physicians in rural shortage areas, little is known about their movement rates and factors influencing their mobility. We aimed to characterize geographic mobility among rural primary care physicians, and to identify location and individual factors that influence such mobility. METHODS: Using data from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile for each clinically active US physician, we created seven 2-year (biennial) mobility periods during 2000-2014. These periods were merged with county-level "rurality," physician supply, economic characteristics, key demographic measures, and individual physician characteristics. We computed (1) mobility rates of physicians by rurality; (2) linear regression models of county-level rural nonretention (departure); and (3) logit models of physicians leaving rural practice. RESULTS: Biennial turnover was about 17% among physicians aged 45 and younger, compared with 9% among physicians aged 46 to 65, with little difference between rural and metropolitan groups. County-level physician mobility was higher for counties that lacked a hospital (absolute increase = 5.7%), had a smaller population size, and had lower primary care physician supply, but area-level economic and demographic factors had little impact. Female physicians (odds ratios = 1.24 and 1.46 for those aged 45 or younger and those aged 46 to 65, respectively) and physicians born in a metropolitan area (odds ratios = 1.75 and 1.56 for those aged 45 or younger and those aged 46 to 65, respectively) were more likely to leave rural practice. CONCLUSIONS: These flndings provide national-level evidence of rural physician mobility rates and factors associated with both county-level retention and individual-level departures. Outcomes were notably poorer in the most remote locations and those already having poorer physician supply and professional support. Rural health workforce planners and policymakers must be cognizant of these key factors to more effectively target retention policies and to take into account the additional support needed by these more vulnerable communities.

Financing U.S. Graduate Medical Education: A Policy Position Paper of the Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine and the American College of Physicians.

In this position paper, the Alliance for Academic Internal Medicine and the American College of Physicians examine the state of graduate medical education (GME) financing in the United States and recent proposals to reform GME funding. They make a series of recommendations to reform the current funding system to better align GME with the needs of the nation's health care workforce. These recommendations include using Medicare GME funds to meet policy goals and to ensure an adequate supply of physicians, a proper specialty mix, and appropriate training sites; spreading the costs of financing GME across the health care system; evaluating the true cost of training a resident and establishing a single per-resident amount; increasing transparency and innovation; and ensuring that primary care residents receive training in well-functioning ambulatory settings that are financially supported for their training roles.

Primary Care Physician Supply by County-Level Characteristics, 2010-2019.

This study evaluates and compares US trends between 2010 and 2019 in per-capita primary care physician supply by county-level racial and ethnic minority concentration, poverty, rurality, and region.

Measuring the attractiveness of rural communities in accounting for differences of rural primary care workforce supply.

INTRODUCTION: Many rural communities continue to experience an undersupply of primary care doctor services. While key professional factors relating to difficulties of recruitment and retention of rural primary care doctors are widely identified, less attention has been given to the role of community and place aspects on supply. Place-related attributes contribute to a community's overall amenity or attractiveness, which arguably influence both rural recruitment and retention relocation decisions of doctors. This bi-national study of Australia and the USA, two developed nations with similar geographic and rural access profiles, investigates the extent to which variations in community amenity indicators are associated with spatial variations in the supply of rural primary care doctors. METHODS: Measures from two dimensions of community amenity: geographic location, specifically isolation/proximity; and economics and sociodemographics were included in this study, along with a proxy measure (jurisdiction) of a third dimension, environmental amenity. Data were chiefly collated from the American Community Survey and the Australian Census of Population and Housing, with additional calculated proximity measures. Rural primary care supply was measured using provider-to-population ratios in 1949 US rural counties and in 370 Australian rural local government areas. Additionally, the more sophisticated two-step floating catchment area method was used to measure Australian rural primary care supply in 1116 rural towns, with population sizes ranging from 500 to 50 000. Associations between supply and community amenity indicators were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficients and ordinary least squares multiple linear regression models. RESULTS: It was found that increased population size, having a hospital in the county, increased house prices and affluence, and a more educated and older population were all significantly associated with increased workforce supply across rural areas of both countries. While remote areas were strongly linked with poorer supply in Australia, geographical remoteness was not significant after accounting for other indicators of amenity such as the positive association between workforce supply and coastal location. Workforce supply in the USA was negatively associated with fringe rural area locations adjacent to larger metropolitan areas and characterised by long work commutes. The US model captured 49% of the variation of workforce supply between rural counties, while the Australian models captured 35-39% of rural supply variation. CONCLUSIONS: These data support the idea that the rural medical workforce is maldistributed with a skew towards locating in more affluent and educated areas, and against locating in smaller, poorer and more isolated rural towns, which struggle to attract an adequate supply of primary care services. This evidence is important in understanding the role of place characteristics and rural population dynamics in the recruitment and retention of rural doctors. Future primary care workforce policies need to place a greater focus on rural communities that, for a variety of reasons, may be less attractive to doctors looking to begin or remain working there.