Ophthalmology human resource projections: are we heading for a crisis in the next 15 years?

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Ophthalmology residency positions have increased in recent years. This study looks at whether the expansion is enough to avoid shortages in the future. METHODS: The Canadian Medical Association Physician Resource Evaluation Template was used to project the supply of ophthalmologists up to 2016, assuming a status quo scenario in terms of attrition and gain factors. RESULTS: The ratio of ophthalmologists to population is steadily declining but not as fast as previously projected. INTERPRETATION: With the scenario presented, the supply of ophthalmologists will be inadequate in the future. Expanding Canadian residency training programs to their maximum capacity will maintain the current national ophthalmologist-to-population ratio but will still not be enough to meet the demand for ophthalmology services because of the shift in demographics as baby boomers age.