Rotavirus and adenovirus gastroenteritis: time series analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the effects of changes in weather conditions (monthly average temperature, monthly minimum temperature, monthly average humidity) on rotavirus and adenovirus gastroenteritis frequency and whether there was a seasonal correlation. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2012, 4702 fecal samples were taken from patients ≤ 5 years of age with acute gastroenteritis; these samples were analyzed in terms of rotavirus group A and adenovirus serotype 40-41 antigens using time-series and negative binomial regression analysis. RESULTS: Rotavirus antigens were found in 797 samples (17.0%), adenovirus antigens in 113 samples (2.4%), and rotavirus and adenovirus antigens together in 16 samples (0.3%). There was a seasonal change in rotavirus gastroenteritis (P < 0.001), and a 1°C decrease in average temperature increased the ratio of rotavirus cases in those with diarrhea by 0.523%. In addition, compared with data from other years, the number of patients was lower in the first month of 2008 and in the second month of 2012, when the temperature was below -20°C (monthly minimum temperature). There was no statistically significant relationship between adenovirus infection and change in weather conditions. CONCLUSION: Various factors such as change in weather conditions, as well as the population's sensitivity and associated changes in activity, play a role in the spread of rotavirus infection.