External Validation of UDCA Response Score in Slovak and Croatian Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

ABSTRACT

Background: Ursodeoxycholic acid response score (URS) is a prognostic model that estimates the baseline probability of treatment response after 12 months of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Aim: To independently evaluate the predictive performance of the URS model. Methods: We used a cohort of Slovak and Croatian treatment-naïve PBC patients to quantify the discrimination ability using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, we evaluated the calibration using calibration belts. The primary outcome was treatment response after 12 months of UDCA therapy defined as values of alkaline phosphatase ≤1.67 × upper limit of normal. Results: One hundred and ninety-four patients were included. Median pretreatment age was 56 years (interquartile range 49-62). Treatment response was achieved in 79.38% of patients. AUROC of the URS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.88) and the calibration belt revealed that response rates were correctly estimated by predicted probabilities. Conclusion: Our results confirm that the URS can be used in treatment-naïve PBC patients for estimating the treatment response probability after 12 months of UDCA therapy.