Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning.
Front Physiol
; 12: 714195, 2021.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34497538
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The incidence of cardiovascular events remains high in diabetics. However, a clinical prediction model for elevated arterial stiffness using machine learning to identify subjects consequently at higher risk remains to be developed.METHODS:
Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination were used for feature selection. Four machine learning algorithms were used to construct a prediction model, and their performance was compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve metric in a discovery dataset (n = 760). The model with the best performance was selected and validated in an independent dataset (n = 912) from the Dryad Digital Repository (https//doi.org/10.5061/dryad.m484p). To apply our model to clinical practice, we built a free and user-friendly web online tool.RESULTS:
The predictive model includes the predictors age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index. In the discovery cohort, the gradient boosting-based model outperformed other methods in the elevated arterial stiffness prediction. In the validation cohort, the gradient boosting model showed a good discrimination capacity. A cutoff value of 0.46 for the elevated arterial stiffness risk score in the gradient boosting model resulted in a good specificity (0.813 in the discovery data and 0.761 in the validation data) and sensitivity (0.875 and 0.738, respectively) trade-off points.CONCLUSION:
The gradient boosting-based prediction system presents a good classification in elevated arterial stiffness prediction. The web online tool makes our gradient boosting-based model easily accessible for further clinical studies and utilization.
Full text:
1
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Language:
En
Year:
2021
Type:
Article