Clash of the calculators: External validation of prostate cancer risk calculators in men undergoing mpMRI and transperineal biopsy.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To compare the accuracy of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) RC, MRI-ERSPC-RC, and Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group (PBCG) RC in patients undergoing transperineal prostate biopsy. Patients and methods: We identified 392 patients who underwent mpMRI before transperineal prostate biopsy across multiple public and private institutions between January 2017 and August 2019. The estimated probabilities of detecting PCa and significant PCa were calculated using the MRI-ERSPC-RC, ERSPC-RC, and PBCG-RC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for each calculator were generated and the area underneath the curve (AUC) was compared. Calibration and clinical utility were assessed with calibration plots and decision curve analysis, respectively. Results: PCa was detected in 285 patients (72.7%) with significant PCa found in 200 patients (51.1%). ROC curve analysis found the MRI-ERSPC-RC outperformed the ERSPC-RC and PBCG-RC. For the prediction of PCa, the AUC was 0.756, 0.696, and 0.675 for the MRI-ERSPC-RC, ERSPC-RC, and PBCG-RC, respectively. The AUC for the prediction of significant PCa was 0.803, 0.745, and 0.746 for the MRI-ERSPC-RC, ERSPC-RC, and PBCG-RC, respectively. Conclusions: Our study validated the ERSPC-RC, MRI-ERSPC-RC, and PBCG-RC in a cohort undergoing transperineal prostate biopsy with the MRI-ERSPC-RC performing the best. These RCs may enable improved shared decision making and help to guide patient selection for biopsy.