Predicting US- and state-level cancer counts for the current calendar year: Part II: evaluation of spatiotemporal projection methods for incidence.
Cancer
; 118(4): 1100-9, 2012 Feb 15.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-22228583
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The current study was undertaken to evaluate the spatiotemporal projection models applied by the American Cancer Society to predict the number of new cancer cases.METHODS:
Adaptations of a model that has been used since 2007 were evaluated. Modeling is conducted in 3 steps. In step I, ecologic predictors of spatiotemporal variation are used to estimate age-specific incidence counts for every county in the country, providing an estimate even in those areas that are missing data for specific years. Step II adjusts the step I estimates for reporting delays. In step III, the delay-adjusted predictions are projected 4 years ahead to the current calendar year. Adaptations of the original model include updating covariates and evaluating alternative projection methods. Residual analysis and evaluation of 5 temporal projection methods were conducted.RESULTS:
The differences between the spatiotemporal model-estimated case counts and the observed case counts for 2007 were < 1%. After delays in reporting of cases were considered, the difference was 2.5% for women and 3.3% for men. Residual analysis indicated no significant pattern that suggested the need for additional covariates. The vector autoregressive model was identified as the best temporal projection method.CONCLUSIONS:
The current spatiotemporal prediction model is adequate to provide reasonable estimates of case counts. To project the estimated case counts ahead 4 years, the vector autoregressive model is recommended to be the best temporal projection method for producing estimates closest to the observed case counts.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Predicción
/
Neoplasias
Tipo de estudio:
Evaluation_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Año:
2012
Tipo del documento:
Article