Predictors of perioperative and late survival in octogenarians undergoing elective endovascular abdominal aortic repair.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The appropriateness of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of uncomplicated abdominal aortic aneurysm depends on the risk-benefit ratio, particularly in elderly patients with short life expectancy. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of EVAR in >80-year-old patients by evaluating their postoperative survival and analyzing the possible predictors of late mortality. METHODS: All consecutive patients aged >80 years undergoing elective EVAR from 2006 to 2015 were prospectively evaluated. The 30-day mortality and long-term survival were assessed, and independent risk factors for mortality were determined by multivariate logistic and Cox analysis. RESULTS: Of a total of 1135 EVARs performed in a 10-year period, 201 (18%) occurred in patients older than 80 years. The median age was 84 years (interquartile range, 3 years), and 85% were male. Thirty-four patients (17%) had a score of 4 according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. Overall 30-day mortality was 2% (n = 4); it was significantly higher in those with ASA score of 4 compared with ASA score <4 (9.4% vs 0.6%; P = .04) and was also confirmed by multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 12.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-141.8; P = .04). The mean follow-up was 36 ± 18 months, and the overall survival at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 85% ± 2%, 77% ± 3%, and 52% ± 4%, respectively. Using multivariate Cox regression, ASA score of 4 and peripheral artery obstructive disease (PAOD) were the only independent predictors for midterm mortality (hazard ratio of 2.0 [95% CI, 1.2-2.9; P = .04] and 3.07 [95% CI, 1.06-5.2; P = .04], respectively). The 2-year survival was significantly influenced by the presence of both (ASA score of 4 and PAOD; survival, 33% ± 2%) or one (ASA score of 4 or PAOD; survival, 67% ± 8%) of the two independent predictors. If neither ASA score of 4 nor PAOD was present, survival was significantly improved (92% ± 3%; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of EVAR in >80-year-old patients is associated with an overall early mortality rate as low as 2%. In patients with no or only one risk factor, the survival rate warrants the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm; in contrast, patients with ASA score of 4 and PAOD have a significantly higher mortality rate and reduction of life expectancy.