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The COVID-19 pandemic preparedness simulation tool: CovidSIM.
Schneider, Kristan A; Ngwa, Gideon A; Schwehm, Markus; Eichner, Linda; Eichner, Martin.
Afiliación
  • Schneider KA; Department of Applied Computer- and Bio-Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Mittweida, Technikumplatz 17, Mittweida, 09648, Germany. kristan.schneider@hs-mittweida.de.
  • Ngwa GA; Department of Applied Computer- and Bio-Sciences, University of Applied Sciences Mittweida, Technikumplatz 17, Mittweida, 09648, Germany.
  • Schwehm M; Department of Mathematics, University of Buea, Buea, Cameroon, P.O. Box 63, South West Region, Buea, Cameroon.
  • Eichner L; ExploSYS GmbH, Otto-Hahn-Weg 6, Leinfelden-Echterdingen, 70771, Germany.
  • Eichner M; Public Health Office Reutlingen, St.-Wolfgang-Str. 13, Reutlingen, 72764, Germany.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 859, 2020 Nov 19.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33213360
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Efficient control and management in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic needs to carefully balance economical and realizable interventions. Simulation models can play a cardinal role in forecasting possible scenarios to sustain decision support.

METHODS:

We present a sophisticated extension of a classical SEIR model. The simulation tool CovidSIM Version 1.0 is an openly accessible web interface to interactively conduct simulations of this model. The simulation tool is used to assess the effects of various interventions, assuming parameters that reflect the situation in Austria as an example.

RESULTS:

Strict contact reduction including isolation of infected persons in quarantine wards and at home can substantially delay the peak of the epidemic. Home isolation of infected individuals effectively reduces the height of the peak. Contact reduction by social distancing, e.g., by curfews, sanitary behavior, etc. are also effective in delaying the epidemic peak.

CONCLUSIONS:

Contact-reducing mechanisms are efficient to delay the peak of the epidemic. They might also be effective in decreasing the peak number of infections depending on seasonal fluctuations in the transmissibility of the disease.
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Texto completo: 1 Banco de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Interfaz Usuario-Computador / Infecciones por Coronavirus Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Banco de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Interfaz Usuario-Computador / Infecciones por Coronavirus Tipo de estudio: Prognostic_studies Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Europa Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Article