Development of a Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Transfusion in the Elderly After Intramedullary Nail Fixation of Femoral Intertrochanteric Fractures.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The aim of our study was to explore the risk factors related to blood transfusion after intramedullary nail fixation of elderly femoral intertrochanteric fracture (FTF) and establish a nomogram prediction model. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study including elderly FTF patients treated by intramedullary nail between January 2017 and December 2019. Perioperative information was obtained retrospectively, uni- and multivariate regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for blood transfusion. A nomogram model was established to predict the risk of blood transfusion, and consistency coefficient (C-index) and correction curve were used to evaluate the prediction performance and consistency of the model. RESULTS: Of 148 patients, 119 were finally enrolled in the study and and 46 patients (38.7%) received a blood transfusion after the operation. Logistic regression analysis the female, lower preoperative Hb, ASA score >2, general anesthesia, and higher intraoperative blood loss were independently associated with the blood transfusion. The accuracy of the contour map for predicting transfusion risk was 0.910. CONCLUSION: These risk factors are shown on the nomogram and verified. Through the assessment of the risk of blood transfusion and the intervention of modifiable risk factors, we may be able to reduce the blood transfusion rate to a certain extent, so as to further guarantee the safety of the elderly patients during the perioperative period.