Comparative analysis of four established risk scores for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to compare the predictive power of Shock Index (SI), TIMI Risk Index (TRI), LASH Score, and ACEF Score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in a contemporary cohort of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at a tertiary care cardiac center of a developing country. METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with STEMI and undergoing primary PCI were included in this study. SI, TRI, LASH, and ACEF were computed and their predictive power was assessed as the area under the curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis for in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 977 patients, 780 (79.8%) of which were male, and the mean age was 55.6 ± 11.5 years. The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.3% (42). AUC for TRI was 0.669 (optimal cutoff ≥17.5, sensitivity 76.2%, specificity 45.6%). AUC for SI was 0.595 (optimal cutoff ≥0.9, sensitivity 21.4%, specificity 89.8%). AUC for LASH score was 0.745 (optimal cutoff ≥0, sensitivity 76.2%, specificity 66.9%). AUC for the ACEF score was 0.786 (optimal cutoff ≥1.66, sensitivity 71.4%, specificity 73.5%). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, ACEF showed sufficiently high predictive power with good sensitivity and specificity compared to other three scores. These simplified indices based on readily available hemodynamic parameters can be reliable alternatives to the computational complex scoring systems for the risk stratification of STEMI patients.