Validation of Heart Failure-Specific Risk Equations in 1.3 Million Israeli Adults and Usefulness of Combining Ambulatory and Hospitalization Data from a Large Integrated Health Care Organization.

Heart failure (HF) prevalence is increasing worldwide and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Guidelines emphasize prevention in those at-risk, but HF-specific risk prediction equations developed in United States population-based cohorts lack external validation in large, real-world datasets outside of the United States. The purpose of this study was to assess the model performance of the pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) within a contemporary electronic health record for 5- and 10-year risk. Using a retrospective cohort study design of Israeli residents between 2008 and 2018 with continuous membership until end of follow-up, HF, or death, we quantified 5- and 10-year estimated risks of HF using the PCP-HF equations, which integrate demographics (age, gender, and race) and risk factors (body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glucose, medication use for hypertension or diabetes, and smoking status). Of 1,394,411 patients included, 56% were women with mean age of 49.6 (SD 13.2) years. Incident HF occurred in 1.2% and 4.5% of participants over 5 and 10 years of follow-up. The PCP-HF model had excellent discrimination for 5- and 10-year predictions of incident HF (C Statistic 0.82 [0.82 to 0.82] and 0.84 [0.84 to 0.84]), respectively. In conclusion, HF-specific risk equations (PCP-HF) accurately predict the risk of incident HF in ambulatory and hospitalized patients using routinely available clinical data.

Trends in all-cause mortality among people with diagnosed diabetes in high-income settings: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data.

BACKGROUND: Population-level trends in mortality among people with diabetes are inadequately described. We aimed to examine the magnitude and trends in excess all-cause mortality in people with diabetes. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicountry analysis, we collected aggregate data from 19 data sources in 16 high-income countries or jurisdictions (in six data sources in Asia, eight in Europe, one from Australia, and four from North America) for the period from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2016, (or a subset of this period) on all-cause mortality in people with diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes. We collected data from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We estimated excess mortality using the standardised mortality ratio (SMR). FINDINGS: In our dataset, there were approximately 21 million deaths during 0·5 billion person-years of follow-up among people with diagnosed diabetes. 17 of 19 data sources showed decreases in the age-standardised and sex-standardised mortality in people with diabetes, among which the annual percentage change in mortality ranged from -0·5% (95% CI -0·7 to -0·3) in Hungary to -4·2% (-4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong. The largest decreases in mortality were observed in east and southeast Asia, with a change of -4·2% (95% CI -4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong, -4·0% (-4·8 to -3·2) in South Korea, -3·5% (-4·0 to -3·0) in Taiwan, and -3·6% (-4·2 to -2·9) in Singapore. The annual estimated change in SMR between people with and without diabetes ranged from -3·0% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·9; US Medicare) to 1·6% (1·4 to 1·7; Lombardy, Italy). Among the 17 data sources with decreasing mortality among people with diabetes, we found a significant SMR increase in five data sources, no significant SMR change in four data sources, and a significant SMR decrease in eight data sources. INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality in diabetes has decreased in most of the high-income countries we assessed. In eight of 19 data sources analysed, mortality decreased more rapidly in people with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Further longevity gains will require continued improvement in prevention and management of diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

Validating reported cause of death using integrated electronic health records from a nation-wide database.

BACKGROUND: To compare the underlying cause of death reported by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) with diagnoses in the electronic health records (EHR) of a fully integrated payer/provider healthcare system. METHODS: Underlying cause of death was obtained from the CBS for deaths occurring during 2009-2012 of all Clalit Health Service members in Israel. The final cohort consisted of members who had complete medical records. The frequency of a supportive diagnosis in the EHR was reported for 10 leading causes of death (malignancies, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, septicemia, accidents, chronic lower respiratory disease, dementia and pneumonia and influenza). RESULTS: Of the 45 680 members included in the study, the majority of deaths had at least one diagnosis in the EHR that could support the cause of death. The lowest frequency of supportive diagnosis was for septicemia (52.2%) and the highest was for malignancies (94.3%). Sensitivity analysis did not suggest an alternative explanation for the missing documentation. CONCLUSIONS: The underlying cause of death coded by the CBS is often supported by diagnoses in Clalit's EHR. Exceptions are septicemia or accidents that cannot be anticipated from a patient's EHR, and dementia which may be under-reported.

Healthcare utilization in infants and toddlers with asthma-like symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent asthma-like symptoms are common in infants, but few population studies describe diagnostic and treatment practice. METHODS: Using the electronic data repository of Clalit Health Services, the largest integrated health care provider in Israel, we evaluated children born 2005-2012, who before 3 years of age had >3 episodes of asthma-like symptoms and/or >2 bronchodilator purchases within a year. We described health care utilization and the odds ratio for subsequent utilization after 3 and 12 months' controller therapy. The primary outcome measure was respiratory-related doctor visits. Linear and categorical regression analysis measured overall effectiveness of therapy. RESULTS: Among 689 171 infants, 262 900 (38.1%) had > 3 asthma-like episodes/year during at least 1 year. Of those, 26 108 (10%) purchased controller therapy: 20 316 (77.8%) inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) with or without leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRA), and 5792 (22.2%) LTRA alone. For these 26 108 over 3 months there were 93 845 respiratory-related doctor visits, 3110 hospital admissions, 5568 diagnoses of pneumonia, 9960 chest X-rays, 37 127 purchases for oral steroids, and 45 142 for antibiotics courses. Healthcare utilization decreased following ICS ± LTRA and LTRA alone, respectively, as follows: doctor visits 7% and 3%, chest X-rays 16% and 17%, bronchodilators 20% and 11%, systemic steroids 17% and 12%, and antibiotics by 35% and 22%, (P < .001 for all). Twelve months' therapy remained effective. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma-like symptoms are common in infants. Health care utilization is very high and physician practices should be reassessed. Following controller therapy, health care utilization decreased. Yet controllers were prescribed in only a minority of eligible children.

Impact of a nurse-based intervention on medication outcomes in vulnerable older adults.

BACKGROUND: Medication-related problems are common in older adults with multiple chronic conditions. We evaluated the impact of a nurse-based primary care intervention, based on the Guided Care model of care, on patient-centered aspects of medication use. METHODS: Controlled clinical trial of the Comprehensive Care for Multimorbid Adults Project (CC-MAP), conducted among 1218 participants in 7 intervention clinics and 6 control (usual care) clinics. Inclusion criteria included age 45-94, presence of ≥3 chronic conditions, and Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG) score > 0.19. The co-primary outcomes were number of changes to the medication regimen between baseline and 9 month followup, and number of changes to symptom-focused medications, markers of attentiveness to medication-related issues. RESULTS: Mean age in the intervention group was 72 years, 59% were women, and participants used a mean of 6.6 medications at baseline. The control group was slightly older (73 years) and used more medications (mean 7.1). Between baseline and 9 months, intervention subjects had more changes to their medication regimen than control subjects (mean 4.04 vs. 3.62 medication changes; adjusted difference 0.55, p = 0.001). Similarly, intervention subjects had more changes to their symptomatic medications (mean 1.38 vs. 1.26 changes, adjusted difference 0.20, p = 0.003). The total number of medications in use remained stable between baseline and follow-up in both groups (p > 0.18). CONCLUSION: This nurse-based, primary care intervention resulted in substantially more changes to patients' medication regimens than usual care, without increasing the total number of medications used. This enhanced rate of change likely reflects greater attentiveness to the medication-related needs of patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov , trial number NCT01811173 .

Association of Bariatric Surgery Using Laparoscopic Banding, Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass, or Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy vs Usual Care Obesity Management With All-Cause Mortality.

Importance: Bariatric surgery is an effective and safe approach for weight loss and short-term improvement in metabolic disorders such as diabetes. However, studies have been limited in most settings by lack of a nonsurgical group, losses to follow-up, missing data, and small sample sizes in clinical trials and observational studies. Objective: To assess the association of 3 common types of bariatric surgery compared with nonsurgical treatment with mortality and other clinical outcomes among obese patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in a large Israeli integrated health fund covering 54% of Israeli citizens with less than 1% turnover of members annually. Obese adult patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2014, were selected and compared with obese nonsurgical patients matched on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes, with a final follow-up date of December 31, 2015. A total of 33 540 patients were included in this study. Exposures: Bariatric surgery (laparoscopic banding, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy) or usual care obesity management only (provided by a primary care physician and which may include dietary counseling and behavior modification). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome, all-cause mortality, matched and adjusted for BMI prior to surgery, age, sex, socioeconomic status, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and smoking. Results: The study population included 8385 patients who underwent bariatric surgery (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 5490 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.6 [IQR, 38.5-43.7]; laparoscopic banding [n = 3635], gastric bypass [n = 1388], laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy [n = 3362], and 25 155 nonsurgical matched patients (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 16 470 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.5 [IQR, 37.0-43.5]). The availability of follow-up data was 100% for all-cause mortality. There were 105 deaths (1.3%) among surgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.3 (IQR, 2.8-6.6) years (including 61 [1.7%] who underwent laparoscopic banding, 18 [1.3%] gastric bypass, and 26 [0.8%] sleeve gastrectomy), and 583 deaths (2.3%) among nonsurgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.0 (IQR, 2.6-6.2) years. The absolute difference was 2.51 (95% CI, 1.86-3.15) fewer deaths/1000 person-years in the surgical vs nonsurgical group. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality among nonsurgical vs surgical patients were 2.02 (95% CI, 1.63-2.52) for the entire study population; by surgical type, HRs were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.50-2.69) for laparoscopic banding, 2.65 (95% CI, 1.55-4.52) for gastric bypass, and 1.60 (95% CI, 1.02-2.51) for laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Conclusions and Relevance: Among obese patients in a large integrated health fund in Israel, bariatric surgery using laparoscopic banding, gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy, compared with usual care nonsurgical obesity management, was associated with lower all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of approximately 4.5 years. The evidence of this association adds to the limited literature describing beneficial outcomes of these 3 types of bariatric surgery compared with usual care obesity management alone.

Diabetes control: Incidence of acute myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality among patients with 3-6 years' disease duration.

Background Optimal glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) concentrations to minimize large vessel complications and prolong life in diabetes patients are not well established. Design A retrospective cohort study from 2010 to 2012 using data from the Clalit Health Service (Clalit) integrated healthcare system's electronic data warehouse. Patients included had newly incident diabetes, had at least two HbA1c measurements during the 3 years prior to 1 January 2010 without any disruption(s) in Clalit membership between 2010 and 2014. Methods Time-dependent variables were utilized for HbA1c concentration exposure at three time periods. Diabetes control was evaluated taking average HbA1c measures per time period. Unadjusted and adjusted extended Cox regression analyses assessed the association between time-dependent average HbA1c level and acute myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality. Results Among our 61,971 participants, 2.0% experienced acute myocardial infarction and 6.9% died. Compared to patients with HbA1c 7.0 to < 7.5%, a higher risk of myocardial infarction was found with 8.5 to < 9.0% (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.91) and ≥9.0% (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.50-2.33) groups; a lower risk was found among <6.0% (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59-0.93), 6.0 to < 6.5% (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.94) and 6.5 to < 7.0% (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.60-0.88) groups. The association with all-cause mortality was J-shaped, demonstrating a higher risk in those <6.0% (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.06-1.34), 7.5 to < 8.0% (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35), 8.0 to < 8.5% (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16-1.64), 8.5 to < 9.0% (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.10-1.67) and ≥9.0% (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.49-2.04) groups. Conclusions HbA1c concentration below 6.0% may be associated with an excess risk for all-cause mortality. Clinicians must be aware of this association when treating individual patients.

Health information exchange systems and length of stay in readmissions to a different hospital.

BACKGROUND: Readmission to a different hospital than the original discharge hospital may result in breakdowns in continuity of care. In different-hospital readmissions (DHRs), continuity can be maintained when hospitals are connected through health information exchange (HIE) systems. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether length of readmission stay (LORS) differs between same-hospital readmissions and DHRs, and whether in DHRs the LORS differs by the availability of HIE. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of all internal medicine 30-day readmissions in 27 Israeli hospitals between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010. SETTING: Clalit Health Services-Israel's largest integrated healthcare provider and payer. POPULATION: Adult Clalit members (aged 18 and older) with at least 1 readmission during the study period. METHODS: A multivariate marginal Cox model tested the likelihood for discharge during each readmission day in same-hospital readmissions (SHRs), DHRs with HIE, and DHRs without HIE. RESULTS: Of the 27,057 readmissions, 3130 (11.6%) were DHRs and 792 where DHRs with HIE in both the index and readmitting hospital. Partial continuity (DHRs with HIE) was associated with decreased likelihood of discharge on any given day compared with full continuity (SHRs) (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.91). Similar results were obtained for no continuity (DHRs without HIE) versus full continuity (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.86-0.94). The difference between DHRs with and without HIE was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: The prolonged LORS in DHRs versus SHRs was not mitigated by the existence of HIE systems. Future research is needed to further elucidate the effects of actual use of HIE on length of DHRs. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2016;11:401-406. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Vitamin D levels for preventing acute coronary syndrome and mortality: evidence of a nonlinear association.

CONTEXT: Low serum calcidiol has been associated with multiple comorbidities and mortality but no "safe" range has been found for the upper concentration. OBJECTIVE: We aim to establish the upper threshold of serum calcidiol, beyond which there is an increased risk for acute coronary syndrome and/or mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We extracted data for 1,282,822 Clalit Health Services members aged >45 between July 2007 and December 2011. Records of mortality or acute coronary syndrome were extracted during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis calculated time to episode and Cox regression models generated adjusted hazard ratios for episode by calcidiol group (<10, 10.1-20, 20.1-36, and >36.1 ng/mL). OUTCOME MEASURES: Acute coronary syndrome subsuming all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During the 54-month study period, 422,822 Clalit Health Services members were tested for calcidiol, of which 12,280 died of any cause (905 with acute coronary syndrome) and 3933 were diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome. Compared to those with 20-36 ng/mL, the adjusted hazard ratios among those with levels of <10, 10-20, and >36 ng/mL were 1.88 (confidence interval [CI]: 1.80-1.96), 1.25 (CI: 1.21-1.30), and 1.13 (CI: 1.04-1.22) (P < .05), respectively. LIMITATIONS: The study cohort comprised only 30% of the population, those tested for vitamin D. The small sample size of those with calcidiol >36 ng/mL prevented further analysis of this group. CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D in the 20-36 ng/mL range was associated with the lowest risk for mortality and morbidity. The hazard ratio below and above this range increases significantly.

[Multiple chronic conditions and morbidity burden: challenges and considerations for an organizational strategy].

Technological advances combined with the aging of the population bring about an increasingly growing number of patients with chronic conditions and multi-morbidity. Multi-morbidity, the co-occurrence of chronic and/or non-chronic conditions in an individual, is the norm among elderly patients, and is becoming increasingly common among younger adults. The Israeli health system, like other systems worldwide, is faced with the challenges posed by the increase in complex multi-morbidity, in an era of growing fiscal constraints, a situation that can induce financial and organizational crises. To effectively cope with such circumstances, a paradigm shift is needed. Health systems need to focus on overall morbidity burden and multi-morbidity (rather than the prevailing one disease at a time approach) and on better care integration. The Israeli health system entails many of the essential elements for addressing the challenges of integrated care, including universal health coverage and advanced health information technology systems. Yet, like other health systems, there is a need for care management support mechanisms that are more effectively tailored to meet the needs of the highly multimorbid patients. This review outlines the organizational approach required to better align care for the main customers of health care in the 21st century: patients with multi-morbidity. We focus on four domains: assessment of morbidity burden according to measures that account for the interaction and synergism amongst conditions; integration across the care continuum; enhancement of primary care and self-management support approaches; and provision of uniquely tailored care management solutions for the highest risk multi-morbid patients.