Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

Dominant mechanisms for the delivery of fine sediment and phosphorus to fluvial networks draining grassland dominated headwater catchments.

Recent advances in monitoring technology have enabled high frequency, in-situ measurements of total phosphorus and total reactive phosphorus to be undertaken with high precision, whilst turbidity can provide an excellent surrogate for suspended sediment. Despite these measurements being fundamental to understanding the mechanisms and flow paths that deliver these constituents to river networks, there is a paucity of such data for headwater agricultural catchments. The aim of this paper is to deduce the dominant mechanisms for the delivery of fine sediment and phosphorus to an upland river network in the UK through characterisation of the temporal variability of hydrological fluxes, and associated soluble and particulate concentrations for the period spanning March 2012-February 2013. An assessment of the factors producing constituent hysteresis is undertaken following factor analysis (FA) on a suite of measured environmental variables representing the fluvial and wider catchment conditions prior to, and during catchment-wide hydrological events. Analysis indicates that suspended sediment is delivered to the fluvial system predominantly via rapidly responding pathways driven by event hydrology. However, evidence of complex, figure-of-eight hysteresis is observed following periods of hydrological quiescence, highlighting the importance of preparatory processes. Sediment delivery via a slow moving, probably sub-surface pathway does occur, albeit infrequently and during low magnitude events at the catchment outlet. Phosphorus is revealed to have a distinct hysteretic response to that of suspended sediment, with sub-surface pathways dominating. However, high magnitude events were observed to exhibit threshold-like behaviour, whereby activation and connection of usually disconnected depositional zones to the fluvial networks results in the movement of vast phosphorus fluxes. Multiple pathways are observed for particulate and soluble constituents, highlighting the challenges faced in mitigating the delivery of contaminant fluxes to headwater river systems.

High frequency variability of environmental drivers determining benthic community dynamics in headwater streams.

Headwater streams are an important feature of the landscape, with their diversity in structure and associated ecological function providing a potential natural buffer against downstream nutrient export. Phytobenthic communities, dominated in many headwaters by diatoms, must respond to physical and chemical parameters that can vary in magnitude within hours, whereas the ecological regeneration times are much longer. How diatom communities develop in the fluctuating, dynamic environments characteristic of headwaters is poorly understood. Deployment of near-continuous monitoring technology in sub-catchments of the River Eden, NW England, provides the opportunity for measurement of temporal variability in stream discharge and nutrient resource supply to benthic communities, as represented by monthly diatom samples collected over two years. Our data suggest that the diatom communities and the derived Trophic Diatom Index, best reflect stream discharge conditions over the preceding 18-21 days and Total Phosphorus concentrations over a wider antecedent window of 7-21 days. This is one of the first quantitative assessments of long-term diatom community development in response to continuously-measured stream nutrient concentration and discharge fluctuations. The data reveal the sensitivity of these headwater communities to mean conditions prior to sampling, with flow as the dominant variable. With sufficient understanding of the role of antecedent conditions, these methods can be used to inform interpretation of monitoring data, including those collected under the European Water Framework Directive and related mitigation efforts.