Association between SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes by Race/Ethnicity in a Large Integrated Health Care System.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have reported associations between severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy and adverse perinatal outcomes but the extent to which these associations vary by race/ethnicity remains uncertain. Therefore, we examined how the association between prenatal SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse perinatal outcomes may be modified by race/ethnicity. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data on 67,986 pregnant women extracted from the Kaiser Permanente Southern California electronic health records between April 6, 2020, and December 31, 2021. Upon admission to labor and delivery, all women were routinely tested for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction test. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were used to estimate associations. RESULTS: During the study period, COVID-19 was diagnosed in 4,960 (7%) of singleton pregnancies, with the highest rates observed among Hispanics (9.4%) and non-Hispanic Blacks (6.2%). Compared with non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics (aOR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21) with SARS-CoV-2 infection had the highest odds of a pregnancy associated with nonreassuring fetal heart rate tracing. Neonates of all races/ethnicities, except for non-Hispanic Blacks, showed significantly increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with the highest risk observed among Asians/Pacific Islanders (aOR: 10.88, 95% CI: 1.33, 89.04). Non-Hispanic White mothers who tested positive were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) at a higher rate at delivery and within 7 days of delivery (aOR: 34.77, 95% CI: 11.3, 107.04; aOR: 26.48, 95% CI: 9.55, 73.46, respectively). Hispanics were also at a significantly higher odds of admission to ICU (aOR: 4.62, 95% CI: 2.69, 7.94; aOR: 4.42, 95% CI: 2.58, 7.56, respectively). Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander mothers who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 prenatally, were at increased risk for preeclampsia/eclampsia, and preterm birth as compared to non-Hispanic White mothers. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight racial/ethnic disparities in the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse perinatal outcomes. The risk of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection was highest for Asian/Pacific Islanders. We also observed a remarkably high risk of ICU admission for non-Hispanic White mothers infected with SARS-CoV-2. KEY POINTS: · Race/ethnicity influences perinatal outcomes in pregnancies impacted by SARS-CoV-2.. · The risk of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection was highest for Asian/Pacific Islanders.. · White mothers had a notably high risk of ICU admission at delivery following SARS-CoV-2 infection..

Rising Trends of Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Large Integrated Healthcare Delivery System in Southern California, 2010-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis rates among children aged 5-17 years over the past decade (2010-2021) and to investigate whether there have been differences in temporal changes based on race and ethnicity, sex, or income. STUDY DESIGN: Childhood ADHD diagnosis was ascertained from electronic health records using International Classification of Diseases ninth revision (314.xx) and International Classification of Diseases tenth revision (F90.x) codes. Data were stratified by child's sex, race and ethnicity, and household income, and rates of ADHD were estimated before and after adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: The overall ADHD diagnosis rates increased from 3.5% in 2010 to 4.0% in 2021. ADHD diagnosis was most prevalent among White children (6.1%), then Black (4.6%), Other/multiple (3.7%), Hispanic (3.1%), and Asian/Pacific Islander (PI) (1.7%). ADHD was also highly prevalent among boys (73.3%) or family income≥$70,000 (50.0%). ADHD diagnosis increased among Black (4.2% to 5.1%), Hispanic (2.8% to 3.6%), and Asian/PI children (1.5% to 2.0%) but remained stable for White (6.2% to 6.1%) and Other/multiple race/ethnic children (3.7% to 3.7%). Increases in the prevalence among girls were also observed. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ADHD in children has risen with the largest increases observed for Black, Hispanic, and Asian/PI children. Rates among less affluent families and girls have also been increasing, narrowing the gaps in diagnosis rates previously observed. These increases may reflect improvements in screening and provision of care among demographics where ADHD has been historically underdiagnosed.

Placental abruption: Incidence and risk of recurrence in subsequent pregnancies.

AIM: To estimate the incidence of abruption in first births and recurrence in the subsequent birth in patients of a large US-based integrated health care system. METHODS: Retrospective population-based cohort study of patients with first two consecutive singleton births using data from the Kaiser-Permanente South California health care system who delivered over a period of 30 years (1991-2021), using longitudinally linked electronic health records. ICD-9/ICD-10 codes "641.20" and "O45.x" identified placental abruption. We calculated the incidence and rates of abruption in first and second pregnancies. We used logistic regression to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for abruption in second pregnancies in patients with and without abruptions in their first pregnancies. RESULTS: Of the 126 264 patients with first two consecutive singleton births over the period, 805 had abruptions in their first births, and 861 in their second births. Rates of abruption in first and second births were 0.63% and 0.68%, respectively. Twenty-seven patients had abruptions in both first and second births. Rates of abruption in the second birth among individuals with and without previous placental abruption were 3.35% and 0.66%, respectively, giving an approximately five-fold increased odds of abruption in a second pregnancy in individuals who had abruption in their first birth when compared with those who did not have placental abruption in their first birth (aOR: 4.95, 95% confidence interval: 3.35-7.31, p < 0.00001). Interpregnancy interval had no statistically significant association with recurrence. CONCLUSION: Abruption in a first birth is associated with an approximately five-fold increased odds of abruption in a second birth.

Postpartum Migraine Headache Coding in Electronic Health Records of a Large Integrated Health Care System: Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a common neurological disorder characterized by repeated headaches of varying intensity. The prevalence and severity of migraine headaches disproportionally affects women, particularly during the postpartum period. Moreover, migraines during pregnancy have been associated with adverse maternal outcomes, including preeclampsia and postpartum stroke. However, due to the lack of a validated instrument for uniform case ascertainment on postpartum migraine headache, there is uncertainty in the reported prevalence in the literature. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the completeness and accuracy of reporting postpartum migraine headache coding in a large integrated health care system's electronic health records (EHRs) and to compare the coding quality before and after the implementation of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes and pharmacy records in EHRs. METHODS: Medical records of 200 deliveries in all 15 Kaiser Permanente Southern California hospitals during 2 time periods, that is, January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2014 (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] coding period) and January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2019 (ICD-10-CM coding period), were randomly selected from EHRs for chart review. Two trained research associates reviewed the EHRs for all 200 women for postpartum migraine headache cases documented within 1 year after delivery. Women were considered to have postpartum migraine headache if either a mention of migraine headache (yes for diagnosis) or a prescription for treatment of migraine headache (yes for pharmacy records) was noted in the electronic chart. Results from the chart abstraction served as the gold standard and were compared with corresponding diagnosis and pharmacy prescription utilization records for both ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM coding periods through comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), as well as the summary statistics of F-score and Youden J statistic (J). The kappa statistic (κ) for interrater reliability was calculated. RESULTS: The overall agreement between the identification of migraine headache using diagnosis codes and pharmacy records compared to the medical record review was strong. Diagnosis coding (F-score=87.8%; J=82.5%) did better than pharmacy records (F-score=72.7%; J=57.5%) when identifying cases, but combining both of these sources of data produced much greater accuracy in the identification of postpartum migraine cases (F-score=96.9%; J=99.7%) with sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 100%, 99.7%, 93.9%, and 100%, respectively. Results were similar across the ICD-9-CM (F-score=98.7%, J=99.9%) and ICD-10-CM coding periods (F-score=94.9%; J=99.6%). The interrater reliability between the 2 research associates for postpartum migraine headache was 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Neither diagnostic codes nor pharmacy records alone are sufficient for identifying postpartum migraine cases reliably, but when used together, they are quite reliable. The completeness of the data remained similar after the implementation of the ICD-10-CM coding in the EHR system.

Demographic, Reproductive, and Medical Risk Factors for Intrauterine Device Expulsion.

OBJECTIVE: To explore to what extent intrauterine device (IUD) expulsion is associated with demographic and clinical risk factors. METHODS: The APEX-IUD (Association of Perforation and Expulsion of IntraUterine Devices) study was a U.S. cohort study using electronic health records from three integrated health care systems (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Southern California, and Washington) and a health care information exchange (Regenstrief Institute). These analyses included individuals aged 50 years or younger with IUD insertions from 2001 to 2018. Intrauterine device expulsion cumulative incidence and incidence rates were estimated. Using Cox regression models, hazard ratios with 95% CIs were estimated before and after adjustment for risk factors of interest (age, race and ethnicity, parity, body mass index [BMI], heavy menstrual bleeding, and dysmenorrhea) and potential confounders. RESULTS: In total, 228,834 individuals with IUD insertion and no delivery in the previous 52 weeks were identified (184,733 [80.7%] with levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system). Diagnosis of heavy menstrual bleeding-particularly a diagnosis in both recent and past periods-was the strongest risk factor for IUD expulsion. Categories with the highest risk of IUD expulsion within each risk factor included individuals diagnosed with overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity; those in younger age groups, especially among those aged 24 years or younger; and in those with parity of four or more. Non-Hispanic White individuals had the lowest incidence and risk, and after adjustment, Asian or Pacific Islander individuals had the highest risk. Dysmenorrhea was not independently associated with expulsion risk when adjusting for heavy menstrual bleeding. CONCLUSION: Most risk factors for expulsion identified in this study appear consistent with known physiologic factors that affect uterine anatomy and physiology (age, BMI, heavy menstrual bleeding, parity). The increased risk of IUD expulsion among individuals of color warrants further investigation. Intrauterine devices are an effective long-term contraceptive; expulsion is uncommon, but patients should be counseled accordingly. FUNDING SOURCE: Bayer AG. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: EU PAS register, EUPAS33461.

Identification of Preterm Labor Evaluation Visits and Extraction of Cervical Length Measures from Electronic Health Records Within a Large Integrated Health Care System: Algorithm Development and Validation.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (PTB) represents a significant public health problem in the United States and throughout the world. Accurate identification of preterm labor (PTL) evaluation visits is the first step in conducting PTB-related research. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a validated computerized algorithm to identify PTL evaluation visits and extract cervical length (CL) measures from electronic health records (EHRs) within a large integrated health care system. METHODS: We used data extracted from the EHRs at Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 2009 and 2020. First, we identified triage and hospital encounters with fetal fibronectin (fFN) tests, transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) procedures, PTL medications, or PTL diagnosis codes within 240/7-346/7 gestational weeks. Second, clinical notes associated with triage and hospital encounters within 240/7-346/7 gestational weeks were extracted from EHRs. A computerized algorithm and an automated process were developed and refined by multiple iterations of chart review and adjudication to search the following PTL indicators: fFN tests, TVUS procedures, abdominal pain, uterine contractions, PTL medications, and descriptions of PTL evaluations. An additional process was constructed to extract the CLs from the corresponding clinical notes of these identified PTL evaluation visits. RESULTS: A total of 441,673 live birth pregnancies were identified between 2009 and 2020. Of these, 103,139 pregnancies (23.35%) had documented PTL evaluation visits identified by the computerized algorithm. The trend of pregnancies with PTL evaluation visits slightly decreased from 24.41% (2009) to 17.42% (2020). Of the first 103,139 PTL visits, 19,439 (18.85%) and 44,423 (43.97%) had an fFN test and a TVUS, respectively. The percentage of first PTL visits with an fFN test decreased from 18.06% at 240/7 gestational weeks to 2.32% at 346/7 gestational weeks, and TVUS from 54.67% at 240/7 gestational weeks to 12.05% in 346/7 gestational weeks. The mean (SD) of the CL was 3.66 (0.99) cm with a mean range of 3.61-3.69 cm that remained stable across the study period. Of the pregnancies with PTL evaluation visits, the rate of PTB remained stable over time (20,399, 19.78%). Validation of the computerized algorithms against 100 randomly selected records from these potential PTL visits showed positive predictive values of 97%, 94.44%, 100%, and 96.43% for the PTL evaluation visits, fFN tests, TVUS, and CL, respectively, along with sensitivity values of 100%, 90%, and 90%, and specificity values of 98.8%, 100%, and 98.6% for the fFN test, TVUS, and CL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The developed computerized algorithm effectively identified PTL evaluation visits and extracted the corresponding CL measures from the EHRs. Validation against this algorithm achieved a high level of accuracy. This computerized algorithm can be used for conducting PTL- or PTB-related pharmacoepidemiologic studies and patient care reviews.

Association between intrauterine device type and risk of perforation and device expulsion: results from the Association of Perforation and Expulsion of Intrauterine Device study.

BACKGROUND: Intrauterine devices, including levonorgestrel-releasing and copper devices, are highly effective long-acting reversible contraceptives. The potential risks associated with intrauterine devices are low and include uterine perforation and device expulsion. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the risk of perforation and expulsion associated with levonorgestrel-releasing devices vs copper devices in clinical practice in the United States. STUDY DESIGN: The Association of Perforation and Expulsion of Intrauterine Device study was a retrospective cohort study of women aged ≤50 years with an intrauterine device insertion during 2001 to 2018 and information on intrauterine device type and patient and medical characteristics. Of note, 4 research sites with access to electronic health records contributed data for the study: 3 Kaiser Permanente-integrated healthcare systems (Northern California, Southern California, and Washington) and 1 healthcare system using data from a healthcare information exchange in Indiana (Regenstrief Institute). Perforation was classified as any extension of the device into or through the myometrium. Expulsion was classified as complete (not visible in the uterus or abdomen or patient reported) or partial (any portion in the cervix or malpositioned). We estimated the crude incidence rates and crude cumulative incidence by intrauterine device type. The risks of perforation and expulsion associated with levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices vs copper intrauterine devices were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression with propensity score overlap weighting to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: Among 322,898 women included in this analysis, the incidence rates of perforation per 1000 person-years were 1.64 (95% confidence interval, 1.53-1.76) for levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices and 1.27 (95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.48) for copper intrauterine devices; 1-year and 5-year crude cumulative incidence was 0.22% (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.24) and 0.63% (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.68) for levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices and 0.16% (95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.20) and 0.55% (95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.68) for copper intrauterine devices, respectively. The incidence rates of expulsion per 1000 person-years were 13.95 (95% confidence interval, 13.63-14.28) for levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices and 14.08 (95% confidence interval, 13.44-14.75) for copper intrauterine devices; 1-year and 5-year crude cumulative incidence was 2.30% (95% confidence interval, 2.24-2.36) and 4.52% (95% confidence interval, 4.40-4.65) for levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices and 2.30% (95% confidence interval, 2.18-2.44) and 4.82 (95% confidence interval, 4.56-5.10) for copper intrauterine devices, respectively. Comparing levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices with copper intrauterine devices, the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.49 (95% confidence intervals, 1.25-1.78) for perforation and 0.69 (95% confidence intervals, 0.65-0.73) for expulsion. CONCLUSION: After adjusting for potential confounders, levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine devices were associated with an increased risk of uterine perforation and a decreased risk of expulsion relative to copper intrauterine devices. Given that the absolute numbers of these events are low in both groups, these differences may not be clinically meaningful.

Association between menorrhagia and risk of intrauterine device-related uterine perforation and device expulsion: results from the Association of Uterine Perforation and Expulsion of Intrauterine Device study.

BACKGROUND: Intrauterine devices are effective instruments for contraception, and 1 levonorgestrel-releasing device is also indicated for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding (menorrhagia). OBJECTIVE: To compare the incidence of intrauterine device expulsion and uterine perforation in women with and without a diagnosis of menorrhagia within the first 12 months before device insertion STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in 3 integrated healthcare systems (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Southern California, and Washington) and a healthcare information exchange (Regenstrief Institute) in the United States using electronic health records. Nonpostpartum women aged ≤50 years with intrauterine device (eg, levonorgestrel or copper) insertions from 2001 to 2018 and without a delivery in the previous 12 months were studied in this analysis. Recent menorrhagia diagnosis (ie, recorded ≤12 months before insertion) was ascertained from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The study outcomes, viz, device expulsion and device-related uterine perforation (complete or partial), were ascertained from electronic medical records and validated in the data sources. The cumulative incidence and crude incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the crude and adjusted hazard ratios using propensity score overlap weighting (13-16 variables) and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Among 228,834 nonpostpartum women, the mean age was 33.1 years, 44.4% of them were White, and 31,600 (13.8%) had a recent menorrhagia diagnosis. Most women had a levonorgestrel-releasing device (96.4% of those with and 78.2% of those without a menorrhagia diagnosis). Women with a menorrhagia diagnosis were likely to be older, obese, and have dysmenorrhea or fibroids. Women with a menorrhagia diagnosis had a higher intrauterine device-expulsion rate (40.01 vs 10.92 per 1000 person-years) than those without, especially evident in the first few months after insertion. Women with a menorrhagia diagnosis had a higher cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of expulsion (7.00% [6.70-7.32] at 1 year and 12.03% [11.52-12.55] at 5 years) vs those without (1.77% [1.70-1.84] at 1 year and 3.69% [3.56-3.83] at 5 years). The risk of expulsion was increased for women with a menorrhagia diagnosis vs for those without (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.84 [95% confidence interval, 2.66-3.03]). The perforation rate was low overall (<1/1000 person-years) but higher in women with a diagnosis of menorrhagia vs in those without (0.98 vs 0.63 per 1000 person-years). The cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of uterine perforation was slightly higher for women with a menorrhagia diagnosis (0.09% [0.06-0.14] at 1 year and 0.39% [0.29-0.53] at 5 years) than those without it (0.07% [0.06-0.08] at 1 year and 0.28% [0.24-0.33] at 5 years). The risk of perforation was slightly increased in women with a menorrhagia diagnosis vs in those without (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.13). CONCLUSION: The risk of expulsion is significantly higher in women with a recent diagnosis of menorrhagia. Patient education and counseling regarding the potential expulsion risk is recommended at insertion. The absolute risk of perforation for women with a recent diagnosis of menorrhagia is very low. The increased expulsion and perforation rates observed are likely because of causal factors of menorrhagia.

Identifying Ectopic Pregnancy in a Large Integrated Health Care Delivery System: Algorithm Validation.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of ectopic pregnancy (EP) using electronic databases is important. To our knowledge, no published study has assessed the validity of EP case ascertainment using electronic health records. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the validity of an enhanced version of a previously validated algorithm, which used a combination of encounters with EP-related diagnostic/procedure codes and methotrexate injections. METHODS: Medical records of 500 women aged 15-44 years with membership at Kaiser Permanente Southern and Northern California between 2009 and 2018 and a potential EP were randomly selected for chart review, and true cases were identified. The enhanced algorithm included diagnostic/procedure codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, used telephone appointment visits, and excluded cases with only abdominal EP diagnosis codes. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and overall performance (Youden index and F-score) of the algorithm were evaluated and compared to the validated algorithm. RESULTS: There were 334 true positive and 166 true negative EP cases with available records. True positive and true negative EP cases did not differ significantly according to maternal age, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. EP cases with only one encounter and non-tubal EPs were more likely to be misclassified. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the enhanced algorithm for EP were 97.6%, 84.9%, 92.9%, and 94.6%, respectively. The Youden index and F-score were 82.5% and 95.2%, respectively. The sensitivity and NPV were lower for the previously published algorithm at 94.3% and 88.1%, respectively. The sensitivity of surgical procedure codes from electronic chart abstraction to correctly identify surgical management was 91.9%. The overall accuracy, defined as the percentage of EP cases with correct management (surgical, medical, and unclassified) identified by electronic chart abstraction, was 92.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the enhanced algorithm for EP case ascertainment in integrated health care databases is adequate to allow for use in future epidemiological studies. Use of this algorithm will likely result in better capture of true EP cases than the previously validated algorithm.

Practitioner Education and Feedback to Decrease Ciprofloxacin Prescriptions in Patients with Acute Uncomplicated Cystitis.

CONTEXT: Current guidelines recommend a nonfluoroquinolone agent as first-line treatment of acute uncomplicated cystitis (AUC) because of concerns of antimicrobial resistance and adverse effects. OBJECTIVE: To test whether a multifaceted intervention involving education and feedback reduced primary care practitioners' ciprofloxacin prescriptions for AUC therapy. DESIGN: Primary care practitioners at 3 medical offices participated: 65 in the intervention group and 51 in the control group. Intervention group participants received an educational lecture and emailed summary of antimicrobial guidelines, their AUC prescriptions were audited, and feedback was provided on inappropriate antibiotic choices. Prescriptions at AUC encounters were tracked during baseline, intervention, and postintervention periods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of AUC encounters at which ciprofloxacin was prescribed vs recommended first-line antibiotics. RESULTS: Intervention group participants had 5262 eligible AUC encounters, and control group participants had 5473. At baseline, ciprofloxacin was prescribed at 29.7% and 33.7% of eligible AUC encounters in the intervention and control groups, respectively (p = 0.003). After intervention, ciprofloxacin was prescribed at 10.8% of eligible AUC encounters in the intervention group and 34.3% in the control (p < 0.001). Adjusted odds ratios of ciprofloxacin prescription for AUC therapy were significantly lower in the intervention group during postintervention and intervention periods vs baseline (0.29, 95% confidence interval = 0.20-0.44, p < 0.001 and 0.80, 95% confidence interval = 0.66-0.97, p = 0.03). Adjusted odds ratios did not change over time in the controls. CONCLUSION: Educating primary care practitioners and conducting audit and feedback reduced their prescriptions of ciprofloxacin for AUC therapy.

A Risk Score to Predict Short-term Outcomes Following Emergency Department Discharge.

INTRODUCTION: The emergency department (ED) is an inherently high-risk setting. Risk scores can help practitioners understand the risk of ED patients for developing poor outcomes after discharge. Our objective was to develop two risk scores that predict either general inpatient admission or death/intensive care unit (ICU) admission within seven days of ED discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients age > 65 years using clinical data from a regional, integrated health system for years 2009-2010 to create risk scores to predict two outcomes, a general inpatient admission or death/ICU admission. We used logistic regression to predict the two outcomes based on age, body mass index, vital signs, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), ED length of stay (LOS), and prior inpatient admission. RESULTS: Of 104,025 ED visit discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) experienced a general inpatient admission and 531 (0.5%) death or ICU admission within seven days of discharge. Risk factors with the greatest point value for either outcome were high CCI score and a prolonged ED LOS. The C-statistic was 0.68 and 0.76 for the two models. CONCLUSION: Risk scores were successfully created for both outcomes from an integrated health system, inpatient admission or death/ICU admission. Patients who accrued the highest number of points and greatest risk present to the ED with a high number of comorbidities and require prolonged ED evaluations.

Emergency Department Vital Signs and Outcomes After Discharge.

OBJECTIVE: Vital signs are critical markers of illness severity in the emergency department (ED). Providers need to understand the abnormal vital signs in older adults that are problematic. We hypothesized that in patients age > 65 years discharged from the ED, there are abnormal vital signs that are associated with an admission to an inpatient bed within 7 days of discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a regional integrated health system of members age > 65 years during the years 2009 to 2010. We used univariate contingency tables to assess the relationship between hospital admission within 7 days of discharge and vital sign (including systolic blood pressure [sBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, and pulse oximetry [SpO2 ] values measured closest to discharge) using standard thresholds for abnormal and thresholds derived from the study data. RESULTS: Of 104,025 ED discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) were followed by inpatient admission within 7 days. Vital signs had a greater odds of admission beyond a single cutoff. The vital signs with at least twice the odds of admission were sBP < 97 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.57-2.60), HR > 101 beats/min (OR = 2.00 95% CI = 1.75-2.29), body temperature > 37.3°C (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.90-2.41), and pulse oximetry < 92 SpO2 (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.55-2.68). Patients with two vital sign abnormalities per the analysis had the highest odds of admission. A majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs per the analysis were not admitted within 7 days of ED discharge. CONCLUSION: While we found a majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs as defined by the analysis, not to be admitted after discharge, we identified vital signs associated with at least twice the odds of admission.

Poor Outcomes After Emergency Department Discharge of the Elderly: A Case-Control Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The emergency department (ED) is an inherently high-risk setting. Our objective is to identify the factors associated with the combined poor outcome of either death or an ICU admission shortly after ED discharge in older adults. METHODS: We conducted chart review of 600 ED visit records among adults older than 65 years that resulted in discharge from any of 13 hospitals within an integrated health system in 2009 to 2010. We randomly chose 300 patients who experienced the combined outcome within 7 days of discharge and matched case patients to controls who did not experience the outcome. Two emergency physicians blinded to the outcome reviewed the records and identified whether a number of characteristics were present. Predictors of the outcome were identified with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 1,442,594 ED visits to Kaiser Permanente Southern California in 2009 to 2010, 300 unique cases and 300 unique control records were randomly abstracted. Characteristics associated with the combined poor outcome included cognitive impairment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19 to 3.56), disposition plan change (AOR 2.71; 95% CI 1.50 to 4.89), systolic blood pressure less than 120 mm Hg (AOR 1.48; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.20), and pulse rate greater than 90 beats/min (AOR 1.66; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.71). CONCLUSION: We found that older patients discharged from the ED with a change in disposition from "admit" to "discharge," cognitive impairment, systolic blood pressure less than 120 mm Hg, and pulse rate greater than 90 beats/min were at increased risk of death or ICU admission shortly after discharge. Increased awareness of these high-risk characteristics may improve ED disposition decisionmaking.

Emergency Department Crowding and Outcomes After Emergency Department Discharge.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We assess whether a panel of emergency department (ED) crowding measures, including 2 reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), is associated with inpatient admission and death within 7 days of ED discharge. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of ED discharges, using data from an integrated health system for 2008 to 2010. We assessed patient transit-level (n=3) and ED system-level (n=6) measures of crowding, using multivariable logistic regression models. The outcome measures were inpatient admission or death within 7 days of ED discharge. We defined a clinically important association by assessing the relative risk ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) difference and also compared risks at the 99th percentile and median value of each measure. RESULTS: The study cohort contained a total of 625,096 visits to 12 EDs. There were 16,957 (2.7%) admissions and 328 (0.05%) deaths within 7 days. Only 2 measures, both of which were patient transit measures, were associated with the outcome. Compared with a median evaluation time of 2.2 hours, the evaluation time of 10.8 hours (99th percentile) was associated with a relative risk of 3.9 (95% CI 3.7 to 4.1) of an admission. Compared with a median ED length of stay (a CMS measure) of 2.8 hours, the 99th percentile ED length of stay of 11.6 hours was associated with a relative risk of 3.5 (95% CI 3.3 to 3.7) of admission. No system measure of ED crowding was associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that ED length of stay is a proxy for unmeasured differences in case mix and challenge the validity of the CMS metric as a safety measure for discharged patients.

Predictors of short-term (seven-day) cardiac outcomes after emergency department visit for syncope.

Syncope is a common reason for emergency department (ED) visits, and patients are often admitted to exclude syncope of cardiovascular origin. Population-based data on patterns and predictors of cardiac outcomes may improve decision-making. Our objective was to identify patterns and predictors of short-term cardiac outcomes in ED patients with syncope. Administrative data from an integrated health system of 11 Southern California EDs were used to identify cardiac outcomes after ED presentation for syncope from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2005. Syncope and cause of death were identified by codes from the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision. Cardiac outcomes included cardiac death and hospitalization or procedure consistent with ischemic heart disease, valvular disease, or arrhythmia. Predictors of cardiac outcomes were identified through multivariate logistic regression. There were 35,330 adult subjects who accounted for 39,943 ED visits for syncope. Risk of cardiac outcome sharply decreased following the 7 days after syncope. A 7-day cardiac outcome occurred in 893 cases (3%). Positive predictors of 7-day cardiac outcomes included age > or =60 years, male gender, congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cardiac arrhythmia, and valvular heart disease. Negative predictors included dementia, pacemaker, coronary revascularization, and cerebrovascular disease. There was an age-dependent relation between 7-day cardiac outcomes and arrhythmia and valvular disease, with younger patients (<60 years of age) having greater risk of an event compared to their same-age counterparts. In conclusion, ED decision-making should focus on risk of cardiac event in the first 7 days after syncope and special attention should be given to younger patients with cardiac co-morbidities.