ABSTRACT
WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: With the high cost, the long-term persistence of new oral anticoagulants (NOACs) was lower than that of warfarin in Chinese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) for a long time. The prices of NOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban and dabigatran) decreased significantly over the past year in mainland China. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NOACs versus warfarin for preventing stroke in patients with NVAF from a Chinese healthcare system perspective. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were used to assess the treatment strategies of four NOACs versus warfarin over a lifetime horizon. For each treatment strategy, the total lifetime cost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The impact of parameter uncertainties on base-case analysis results was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In the base-case analysis, compared with warfarin, apixaban had a decreased total lifetime cost of USD 389 and rivaroxaban of USD 1482, while low-dose dabigatran had an increased total lifetime cost of USD 925 and high-dose dabigatran of USD 6641, with QALY increasing by 0.53, 1.32, 0.92 and 1.83, respectively. The ICER of low-dose dabigatran versus warfarin was USD 1005 per QALY gain, while those of apixaban (-USD 734 per QALY gain) and rivaroxaban (-USD 1123 per QALY gain) were negative. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that the base-case results were robust by applying certain varying parameters to the model. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: These four NOAC (apixaban, rivaroxaban, low-dose dabigatran and high-dose dabigatran) treatment strategies were cost-effective compared with warfarin and recommended as substitutes for warfarin treatment for preventing stroke in patients with NVAF in the healthcare system of China, which might be driven by large drug price reductions in the past year.
Subject(s)
Atrial Fibrillation , Stroke , Administration, Oral , Anticoagulants/therapeutic use , Atrial Fibrillation/complications , Atrial Fibrillation/drug therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Dabigatran/therapeutic use , Humans , Pyridones/therapeutic use , Rivaroxaban/therapeutic use , Stroke/drug therapy , Stroke/etiology , Stroke/prevention & control , Warfarin/therapeutic useABSTRACT
PURPOSE: This study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of CYP2C19 loss-of-function and gain-of-function allele guided (LOF/GOF-guided) antiplatelet therapy in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: A life-long decision-analytic model was designed to simulate outcomes of three strategies: universal clopidogrel (75 mg daily), universal alternative P2Y12 inhibitor (prasugrel 10 mg daily or ticagrelor 90 mg twice daily), and LOF/GOF-guided therapy (LOF/GOF allele carriers receiving alternative P2Y12 inhibitor, wild-type patients receiving clopidogrel). Model outcomes included clinical event rates, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and direct medical costs from perspective of US healthcare provider. RESULTS: Base-case analysis found nonfatal myocardial infarction (5.62%) and stent thrombosis (1.2%) to be the lowest in universal alternative P2Y12 inhibitor arm, whereas nonfatal stroke (0.72%), cardiovascular death (2.42%), and major bleeding (2.73%) were lowest in LOF/GOF-guided group. LOF/GOF-guided arm gained the highest QALYs (7.5301 QALYs) at lowest life-long cost (USD 76,450). One-way sensitivity analysis showed base-case results were subject to the hazard ratio of cardiovascular death in carriers versus non-carriers of LOF allele and hazard ratio of cardiovascular death in non-carriers of LOF allele versus general patients. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, LOF/GOF-guided therapy, universal alternative P2Y12 inhibitor, and universal clopidogrel were the preferred strategy (willingness-to-pay threshold = 50,000 USD/QALY) in 99.07%, 0.04%, and 0.89% of time, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using both CYP2C19 GOF and LOF alleles to select antiplatelet therapy appears to be the preferred antiplatelet strategy over universal clopidogrel and universal alternative P2Y12 inhibitor therapy for ACS patients with PCI.