Visualizing External Validity: Graphical Displays to Inform the Extension of Treatment Effects from Trials to Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: In the presence of effect measure modification, estimates of treatment effects from randomized controlled trials may not be valid in clinical practice settings. The development and application of quantitative approaches for extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings is an active area of research. METHODS: In this article, we provide researchers with a practical roadmap and four visualizations to assist in variable selection for models to extend treatment effects observed in trials to clinical practice settings and to assess model specification and performance. We apply this roadmap and visualizations to an example extending the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy (5-fluorouracil vs. plus oxaliplatin) for colon cancer from a trial population to a population of individuals treated in community oncology practices in the United States. RESULTS: The first visualization screens for potential effect measure modifiers to include in models extending trial treatment effects to clinical practice populations. The second visualization displays a measure of covariate overlap between the clinical practice populations and the trial population. The third and fourth visualizations highlight considerations for model specification and influential observations. The conceptual roadmap describes how the output from the visualizations helps interrogate the assumptions required to extend treatment effects from trials to target populations. CONCLUSIONS: The roadmap and visualizations can inform practical decisions required for quantitatively extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings.

Volatile Hydrocarbon Exposures and Incident Coronary Heart Disease Events: Up to Ten Years of Follow-up among Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Workers.

BACKGROUND: During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) disaster, response and cleanup workers were potentially exposed to toxic volatile components of crude oil. However, to our knowledge, no study has examined exposure to individual oil spill-related chemicals in relation to cardiovascular outcomes among oil spill workers. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to investigate the association of several spill-related chemicals [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, n-hexane (BTEX-H)] and total hydrocarbons (THC) with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events among workers enrolled in a prospective cohort. METHODS: Cumulative exposures to THC and BTEX-H across the cleanup period were estimated via a job-exposure matrix that linked air measurement data with self-reported DWH spill work histories. We ascertained CHD events following each worker's last day of cleanup work as the first self-reported physician-diagnosed myocardial infarction (MI) or a fatal CHD event. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for the associations of exposure quintiles (Q) with risk of CHD. We applied inverse probability weights to account for bias due to confounding and loss to follow-up. We used quantile g-computation to assess the joint effect of the BTEX-H mixture. RESULTS: Among 22,655 workers with no previous MI diagnoses, 509 experienced an incident CHD event through December 2019. Workers in higher quintiles of each exposure agent had increased CHD risks in comparison with the referent group (Q1) of that agent, with the strongest associations observed in Q5 (range of HR=1.14-1.44). However, most associations were nonsignificant, and there was no evidence of exposure-response trends. We observed stronger associations among ever smokers, workers with ≤high school education, and workers with body mass index <30 kg/m2. No apparent positive association was observed for the BTEX-H mixture. CONCLUSIONS: Higher exposures to volatile components of crude oil were associated with modest increases in risk of CHD among oil spill workers, although we did not observe exposure-response trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11859.

Associations between airborne crude oil chemicals and symptom-based asthma.

RATIONALE: The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill response and cleanup (OSRC) workers were exposed to airborne total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, o-, m-, and p-xylenes and n-hexane (BTEX-H) from crude oil and PM2.5 from burning/flaring oil and natural gas. Little is known about asthma risk among oil spill cleanup workers. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the relationship between asthma and several oil spill-related exposures including job classes, THC, individual BTEX-H chemicals, the BTEX-H mixture, and PM2.5 using data from the Gulf Long-Term Follow-up (GuLF) Study, a prospective cohort of 24,937 cleanup workers and 7,671 nonworkers following the DWH disaster. METHODS: Our analysis largely focused on the 19,018 workers without asthma before the spill who had complete exposure, outcome, and covariate information. We defined incident asthma 1-3 years following exposure using both self-reported wheeze and self-reported physician diagnosis of asthma. THC and BTEX-H were assigned to participants based on measurement data and work histories, while PM2.5 used modeled estimates. We used modified Poisson regression to estimate risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between spill-related exposures and asthma and a quantile-based g-computation approach to explore the joint effect of the BTEX-H mixture on asthma risk. RESULTS: OSRC workers had greater asthma risk than nonworkers (RR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.38, 1.85). Higher estimated THC exposure levels were associated with increased risk in an exposure-dependent manner (linear trend test p < 0.0001). Asthma risk also increased with increasing exposure to individual BTEX-H chemicals and the chemical mixture: A simultaneous quartile increase in the BTEX-H mixture was associated with an increased asthma risk of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.35,1.55). With fewer cases, associations were less apparent for physician-diagnosed asthma alone. CONCLUSIONS: THC and BTEX-H were associated with increased asthma risk defined using wheeze symptoms as well as a physician diagnosis.

Vitamin D Supplement Use and Risk of Breast Cancer by Race-Ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D has anticarcinogenic properties, but a relationship between vitamin D supplement use and breast cancer is not established. Few studies have accounted for changes in supplement use over time or evaluated racial-ethnic differences. METHODS: The Sister Study is a prospective cohort of 50,884 women with 35-74 years of age who had a sister with breast cancer, but no breast cancer themselves at enrollment (2003-2009). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between vitamin D supplement use and incident breast cancer (3,502 cases; median follow-up 10.5 years). RESULTS: Vitamin D supplement use was common, with 64% reporting ever use (at least once per month) in the year before enrollment. Considering supplement use over time, ever use of vitamin D supplements was not meaningfully associated with breast cancer (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.88, 1.0), relative to never use. However, after adjusting for prior use, recent use of vitamin D supplements ≥1/month was inversely associated with breast cancer (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78, 1.0), relative to nonrecent use. The inverse association was stronger for ductal carcinoma in situ (HR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.87) than invasive breast cancer (HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.72, 1.1, p-for-heterogeneity = 0.02). Supplement use was less common among African American/Black (56%) and non-Black Hispanic/Latina (50%) women than non-Hispanic White women (66%), but there was limited evidence of racial-ethnic differences in HRs (p-for-heterogeneity = 0.16 for ever use, P = 0.55 for recent). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that recent vitamin D use is inversely associated with breast cancer risk.

Introducing longitudinal cumulative dose to describe chemotherapy patterns over time: Case study of a colon cancer trial.

Adjuvant chemotherapy regimens take months to complete. Despite this, studies evaluate chemotherapy adherence via measures assessed at the end of treatment (eg, number of patients missing any dose, relative dose intensity [RDI]). This approach ignores information like the timing of treatment delays. We propose longitudinal cumulative dose (LCD) to integrate impacts of dose reductions, missed doses and dose delays over time. We obtained data from the 2246 participants in the MOSAIC trial randomized to FOLFOX (all three agents) or 5-FU/LV (only 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin). We evaluated proportions of patients stopping treatment early and reducing, missing or delaying a dose in each arm for each chemotherapy agent at each cycle. We calculated LCD, the fraction of the final standard dose a participant reached by a given day, for each participant and each agent and compared it over time and at 24 weeks between treatment arms. Participants randomized to FOLFOX were more likely to stop treatment, reduce doses, miss doses or delay cycles; these differences increased over time. Median LCD for oxaliplatin in the FOLFOX arm at 24 weeks was 77%. The LCD for 5-fluorouracil differed between arms (FOLFOX arm median: 81%; 5-FU/LV arm median: 96%). Visualizing LCD highlighted the timing of deviations from standard administration in a way RDI could not, with major differences in 5-fluorouracil LCD across treatment arms beginning after the sixth dose. Further evaluation of LCD and its impacts on clinical outcomes may clarify mechanisms for heterogeneous patient outcomes.

Lung function in oil spill responders 4-6 years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Oil spill response and clean-up (OSRC) workers were exposed to hazardous airborne chemicals following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. The aim of this study was to evaluate lung function in workers 4-6 years following the disaster using a prospective cohort. Participants who completed two spirometry test sessions 1-3 years, and 4-6 years after the spill (N = 1,838) were included and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1; ml), forced vital capacity (FVC; ml), and ratio (FEV1/FVC; %) determined. Linear mixed models were utilized to estimate relationships between OSRC exposures and lung function 4-6 years after the spill and changes since the prior measurement. Despite suggestive reduced lung function at 1-3 years, at the  4-6-year exam workers with total hydrocarbon (THC) exposure 1-2.99 ppm and ≥3 ppm compared to those with ≤0.29 ppm exhibited higher FEV1 (ß: 108 ml, 95% CI: 17, 198) and (ß: 118 ml, 95% CI: 5, 232), respectively. Compared with support workers, those in higher exposed jobs displayed greater improvement in FEV1 between visits: cleanup on water (ß: 143 ml, 95% CI: 35, 250), operations (ß: 132 ml, 95% CI: 30, 234) and response (ß: 149 ml, 95% CI: 43, 256). Greater FEV1 improvement was also associated with higher versus the lowest level THC exposure: 1-2.99 ppm (ß: 134 ml, 95% CI: 57, 210) and ≥3 ppm (ß: 205 ml, 95% CI: 109, 301). Lung function decrements seen shortly after the spill were no longer apparent 4-6 years later, with the greatest improvement among those with the highest exposures.

Observed and Expected Mortality in Cohort Studies.

Epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in a cohort with the expected number of deaths, obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the cohort by mortality rates for a reference population (ideally, a reference that represents the mortality rate in the cohort in the absence of exposure). However, if exposure is hazardous (or salutary), this calculation will not consistently estimate the number of deaths expected in the absence of exposure because exposure will have affected the distribution of person-time observed in the study cohort. While problems with interpretation of this standard calculation of expected counts were discussed more than 2 decades ago, these discussions had little impact on epidemiologic practice. The logic of counterfactuals may help clarify this topic as we revisit these issues. In this paper, we describe a simple way to consistently estimate the expected number of deaths in such settings, and we illustrate the approach using data from a cohort study of mortality among underground miners.

Healthy worker survivor bias in the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort.

Cohort mortality studies of underground miners have been used to estimate the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon exposure. However, previous studies of the radon-lung cancer association among underground miners may have been subject to healthy worker survivor bias, a type of time-varying confounding by employment status. We examined radon-mortality associations in a study of 4,124 male uranium miners from the Colorado Plateau who were followed from 1950 through 2005. We estimated the time ratio (relative change in median survival time) per 100 working level months (radon exposure averaging 130,000 mega-electron volts of potential α energy per liter of air, per working month) using G-estimation of structural nested models. After controlling for healthy worker survivor bias, the time ratio for lung cancer per 100 working level months was 1.168 (95% confidence interval: 1.152, 1.174). In an unadjusted model, the estimate was 1.102 (95% confidence interval: 1.099, 1.112)-39% lower. Controlling for this bias, we estimated that among 617 lung cancer deaths, 6,071 person-years of life were lost due to occupational radon exposure during follow-up. Our analysis suggests that healthy worker survivor bias in miner cohort studies can be substantial, warranting reexamination of current estimates of radon's estimated impact on lung cancer mortality.