Evaluating water quality benefits of manureshed management in the Susquehanna River Basin.

Manureshed management guides the sustainable use of manure resources by matching areas of crop demand (nutrient sinks) with areas generating livestock manure (nutrient sources). A better understanding of the impacts of manureshed management on water quality within sensitive watersheds is needed. We quantified the potential water quality benefits of manureshed-oriented management through scenario-based analyses in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Five manureshed management scenarios were developed and compared with a baseline "business-as-usual" scenario. The baseline assumes manure is less transportable, which means some locations have manure application in excess of crop demand. The "watershed nutrient balance" scenarios assume excess manure from surplus locations is transportable and that manure is applied around the SRB based on crop nutrient demand. The "watershed nutrient balance avoiding runoff prone areas" scenarios assume manure is transportable but not applied in vulnerable landscapes of the SRB. Each scenario was evaluated under two application rates considering crop nitrogen demand (N-based) and phosphorus demand (P-based). Phosphorus-based manureshed management was more effective in water quality improvements than N-based management. Phosphorus-based nutrient balance scenarios simulated 3 and 25% reduction in total N (TN) and total P (TP), respectively, from the baseline scenario at the watershed outlet. The N- and P-based scenarios avoiding runoff prone areas simulated 3 and 6% reduction in TN loss and 4 and 25.2% reduction in TP loss, respectively, from the baseline. Overall, the manureshed management scenarios were more effective in improving the quality of local streams in livestock-intensive regions than at the watershed outlet.

Opportunities to implement manureshed management in the Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania swine industry.

The U.S. swine industry is diverse, but opportunities exist to strategically improve manure management, especially given much of the industry's vertical integration. We investigate opportunities for improving manureshed management, using swine production examples in Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania as a lens into historical trends and the current range of management conditions. Manure management reflects regional differences and the specialized nature of hog farms, resulting in a large range of land bases required to assimilate manure generated by these operations. Selected representative farm scenarios were evaluated on an annual basis; farm-level manuresheds were largest for Pennsylvania sow farms and smallest for North Carolina nursery farms. Compared with nitrogen-based manuresheds, phosphorus-based manuresheds were up to 12.5 times larger. Technology advancements are needed to promote export of concentrated nutrients, especially phosphorus, from existing "source" manuresheds to suitable croplands. The industry is dynamic, as revealed by historical analysis of the siting of hog barns in Pennsylvania, which are currently trending toward the north and west where there is greater isolation to prevent the spread of disease and a larger land base to assimilate manure. Industry expansion should focus on locating animals in nutrient "sink" areas.

Challenges and opportunities for manureshed management across U.S. dairy systems: Case studies from four regions.

The manureshed represents cropland needed to safely assimilate manure nutrients from an animal feeding operation. Dairy manuresheds can be contained on-farm but may need to involve additional farms that can assimilate excess nutrients. We present case studies reviewing challenges and opportunities to manureshed management in four major dairy-producing states using available information on local manuresheds. Additionally, geographic information system software was used with data from regulated Minnesota dairies to assess cropland assimilative capacities and transport needs surrounding large dairies. Manureshed requirements vary across regions, but increased import of feed and soil phosphorus accumulation constrain on-farm manure utilization across the United States. In Minnesota, a growing proportion of Jersey cattle and differences in continuous corn (Zea mays L.) vs. corn-alfafa (Medicago sativa L.) rotations contribute to the amount of land needed to absorb dairy manure nutrients. Farm-gate budgets reveal that N-based manuresheds can be contained within Idaho dairies, but P-based manuresheds extend beyond the farm. In New Mexico, relocation of surplus manure nutrients off the farm is common via informal networks, but incentives to strengthen these networks could ensure sustainable manureshed management. Evaluation of manureshed requirements in Pennsylvania is often complicated by the need for additional nutrient management planning and greater understanding of nutrient balances on the preponderance of small dairies. Nutrient imbalances with highly concentrated dairy production often lead to the need for manure transport off-farm. However, advances in herd and cropland management offer opportunities to improve on-farm nutrient efficiencies, and emerging networks and technologies promise to facilitate manure export when needed.

Culturable antibiotic-resistant fecal coliform bacteria in soil and surface runoff after liquid dairy manure surface application and subsurface injection.

Land application of manure, while beneficial to soil health and plant growth, can lead to an overabundance of nutrients and introduction of emerging contaminants into agricultural fields. Compared with surface application of manure, subsurface injection has been shown to reduce nutrients and antibiotics in surface runoff. However, less is known about the influence of subsurface injection on the transport and persistence of antibiotic-resistant microorganisms. We simulated rainfall to field plots at two sites (one in Virginia and one in Pennsylvania) 1 or 7 d after liquid dairy manure surface and subsurface application (56 Mg ha-1 ) and monitored the abundance of culturable antibiotic-resistant fecal coliform bacteria (ARFCB) in surface runoff and soils for 45 d. We performed these tests at both sites in spring 2018 and repeated the test at the Virginia site in fall 2019. Manure subsurface injection, compared with surface application, resulted in less ARFCB in surface runoff, and this reduction was greater at Day 1 after application compared with Day 7. The reductions of ARFCB in surface runoff because of manure subsurface injection were 2.5-593 times at the Virginia site in spring 2018 and fall 2019 and 4-5 times at the Pennsylvania site in spring 2018. The ARFCB were only detectable in the 0-to-5-cm soil depth within 14 d of manure surface application but remained detectable in the injection slits of manure subsurface-injected plots even at Day 45. This study demonstrated that subsurface injection can significantly reduce surface runoff of ARFCB from manure-applied fields.

Poultry manureshed management: Opportunities and challenges for a vertically integrated industry.

Manureshed management seeks to address systemic imbalances in nutrient distributions at scales beyond the farmgate and potentially across county and state boundaries. The U.S. poultry industry, which includes broilers, layers, pullets, and turkeys, has many characteristics that are compatible with achieving a vision of manureshed management, including a history of engaging in local and regional programs to better distribute manure resources. Despite widespread vertical integration that supports large-scale strategic decision making and dry manures that favor off-farm transport, there are still many challenges to poultry manureshed management that require engaging stakeholders other than just the poultry industry. Analysis of county-level nutrient budgets highlights the industry's "mega-manureshed," extending from the Mid-Atlantic, across the southeast, and into northwest Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The analysis also identifies areas with legacy nutrient build-up that are still present today. Implementing manureshed management in the U.S. poultry industry requires comprehensive consideration of manure treatment technologies, alternative uses such as bioenergy production, market development for treated manure products, transport of manure nutrients from source to sink areas, and manure brokering programs that promote manure nutrient distribution. Fortunately, past and present evolution and innovation within the industry places it as a likely leader of the manureshed vision.

Land use change and collaborative manureshed management in New Mexico.

Agricultural communities of New Mexico regularly redistribute manure nutrients from dairies to nearby croplands to fulfill agronomic nutrient needs and protect water quality. Yet competition for water resources can result in land use change that affects these cooperative manure transfers. Focusing on three clusters of New Mexico dairy farms and their surrounding lands (three manuresheds), we calculated the magnitude of land use changes in 2008-2019 and the balance between manure nutrient supply and crop demand in 2019 to assess how past change may predict future prospects for sustainable management. The overall magnitude of change was small, with each manureshed experiencing a different complement: an exchange of cropland and rangeland in the Roosevelt manureshed (7,975 ha rangeland to cropland; 7,624 ha cropland to rangeland), a 464-ha gain in cropland but a 1,187-ha loss of "spreadable" land (cropland, rangeland, fallow) to developed land in the Doña Ana manureshed, and relatively minor changes in the Chaves manureshed. Nutrient supply and demand were mainly in balance, but a surplus of manure phosphorus (P) in the Chaves manureshed and a thin margin of P assimilation by croplands in the Roosevelt manureshed point to the need for preserving existing croplands and understanding of effects of dairy manure on shortgrass rangeland. Our assessment suggests that an ideal scenario would entail manure being generated in landscapes with portfolios of productive lands that can sustainably use the manure nutrients to minimize environmental quality concerns and agronomic tradeoffs. Coordinated, participatory, and interdisciplinary research and planning are needed.

Estimating dissolved phosphorus losses from legacy sources in pastures: The limits of soil tests and small-scale rainfall simulators.

A legacy of using P fertilizers on grazed pastures has been enhanced soil fertility and an associated increased risk of P loss in runoff. Rainfall simulation has been extensively used to develop relationships between soil test P (STP) and dissolved P (DP) in runoff as part of modeling efforts scrutinizing the impact of legacy P. This review examines the applicability of rainfall simulation to draw inferences related to legacy P. Using available literature, we propose a mixing layer model with chemical transfer to describe DP mobilization from pasture soils where readily available P in the mixing layer is rapidly exhausted and contact time controls DP concentrations responsible for subsequent DP mobilization. That conceptual model was shown to be consistent with field monitoring data and then used to assess the likely effect of rainfall simulation protocols on DP mobilization, highlighting the influence of soil preparation, scale and measurement duration, and, most important, hydrology that can facilitate the physical transport of P into and out of surface flow. We conclude that rainfall simulation experimental protocols can have severe limitations for developing relationships between DP in runoff and STP that are subsequently used to estimate legacy P contributions to downstream water resources.

Impacts of Cover Crops and Crop Residues on Phosphorus Losses in Cold Climates: A Review.

The use of cover crops and crop residues is a common strategy to mitigate sediment and nutrient losses from land to water. In cold climates, elevated dissolved P losses can occur associated with freeze-thaw of plant materials. Here, we review the impacts of cover crops and crop residues on dissolved P and total P loss in cold climates across ∼41 studies, exploring linkages between water-extractable P (WEP) in plant materials and P loss in surface runoff and subsurface drainage. Water-extractable P concentrations are influenced by plant type and freezing regimes. For example, WEP was greater in brassica cover crops than in non-brassicas, and increased with repeated freeze-thaw cycles. However, total P losses in surface runoff and subsurface drainage from cropped fields under cold climates were much lower than plant WEP, owing to retention of 45 to >99% of released P by soil. In cold climatic regions, cover crops and crop residues generally prevented soil erosion and loss of particle-bound P during nongrowing seasons in erodible landscapes but tended to elevate dissolved P loss in nonerodible soils. Their impact on total P loss was inconsistent across studies and complicated by soil, climate, and management factors. More research is needed to understand interactions between these factors and plant type that influence P loss, and to improve the assessment of crop contributions to P loss in field settings in cold climates. Further, tradeoffs between P loss and the control of sediment loss and N leaching by plants should be acknowledged.

Phosphorus mirabilis: Illuminating the Past and Future of Phosphorus Stewardship.

After its discovery in 1669, phosphorus (P) was named ("the miraculous bearer of light"), arising from the chemoluminescence when white P is exposed to the atmosphere. The metaphoric association between P and light resonates through history: from the discovery of P at the start of the Enlightenment period to the vital role of P in photosynthetic capture of light in crop and food production through to new technologies, which seek to capitalize on the interactions between novel ultrathin P allotropes and light, including photocatalysis, solar energy production, and storage. In this introduction to the special section "Celebrating the 350th Anniversary of Discovering Phosphorus-For Better or Worse," which brings together 22 paper contributions, we shine a spotlight on the historical and emerging challenges and opportunities in research and understanding of the agricultural, environmental, and societal significance of this vital element. We highlight the role of P in water quality impairment and the variable successes of P mitigation measures. We reflect on the need to improve P use efficiency and on the kaleidoscope of challenges facing efficient use of P. We discuss the requirement to focus on place-based solutions for developing effective and lasting P management. Finally, we consider how cross-disciplinary collaborations in P stewardship offer a guiding light for the future, and we explore the glimmers of hope for reconnecting our broken P cycle and the bright new horizons needed to ensure future food, water, and bioresource security for growing global populations.

Future Phosphorus: Advancing New 2D Phosphorus Allotropes and Growing a Sustainable Bioeconomy.

With more than 40 countries currently proposing to boost their national bioeconomies, there is no better time for a clarion call for a "new" bioeconomy, which, at its core, tackles the current disparities and inequalities in phosphorus (P) availability. Existing biofuel production systems have widened P inequalities and contributed to a linear P economy, impairing water quality and accelerating dependence on P fertilizers manufactured from finite nonrenewable phosphate rock reserves. Here, we explore how the emerging bioeconomy in novel, value-added, bio-based products offers opportunities to rethink our stewardship of P. Development of integrated value chains of new bio-based products offers opportunities for codevelopment of "P refineries" to recover P fertilizer products from organic wastes. Advances in material sciences are exploiting unique semiconductor and opto-electrical properties of new "two-dimensional" (2D) P allotropes (2D black phosphorus and blue phosphorus). These novel P materials offer the tantalizing prospect of step-change innovations in renewable energy production and storage, in biomedical applications, and in biomimetic processes, including artificial photosynthesis. They also offer a possible antidote to the P paradox that our agricultural production systems have engineered us into, as well as the potential to expand the future role of P in securing sustainability across both agroecological and technological domains of the bioeconomy. However, a myriad of social, technological, and commercialization hurdles remains to be crossed before such an advanced circular P bioeconomy can be realized. The emerging bioeconomy is just one piece of a much larger puzzle of how to achieve more sustainable and circular horizons in our future use of P.

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering Issues and Emerging Concerns for Agriculture.

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000-km watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15-yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Varying Influence of Dairy Manure Injection on Phosphorus Loss in Runoff over Four Years.

Surface application of manure on no-till farms can exacerbate P losses in runoff, contributing to the eutrophication of surface waters. We monitored 12 400-m field plots over 4 yr to compare P losses in surface runoff and lateral subsurface flow with shallow disk injection and broadcast application of dairy manure. Given the substantial variability in annual P losses, as well as a gradual, annual buildup of residual soil test P, significant differences in runoff P losses were detected in only 1 of 4 yr: in 2014, total P losses in runoff were 68% greater from broadcast manure plots than injected manure plots. Dissolved and particulate P were roughly even in their contribution to runoff. Even so, there were significant relationships between annual dissolved P losses and P in the soil surface, which pointed to soils as a regular source of P in runoff. Overall, results confirm the potential for injection to reduce P loss in runoff relative to broadcast application, but because in a few sampling dates injection resulted in greater losses, this study also highlights the importance of assessing mitigation benefits of manure application practices over longer timeframes.

Phosphorus Leaching from Soil Cores from a Twenty-Year Study Evaluating Alum Treatment of Poultry Litter.

Adding alum to poultry litter is a best management practice used to stabilize P in less soluble forms, reducing nonpoint-source P runoff. However, little research has been conducted on how alum additions to litter affect subsequent leaching of P from soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alum-treated versus untreated poultry litter on P leaching from soil cores receiving long-term poultry litter applications. Two intact soil cores were taken from each of 52 plots in a long-term study with 13 treatments: a control, four rates each of untreated and alum-treated litter (2.24, 4.49, 6.72, and 8.96 Mg ha), and four rates of ammonium nitrate (65, 130, 195, and 260 kg N ha). One core from each plot received the same fertilizer as for the previous 20 yr, whereas the other was unfertilized in the study year, resulting in a total of 25 treatments. Cores were exposed to natural rainfall, and P leaching was measured for 1 yr. The average soluble reactive P concentrations in the leachate varied from 0.16 to 0.44 mg P L in fertilized alum-treated cores, whereas leachate from cores fertilized with untreated litter ranged from 0.40 to 2.64 mg P L. At the highest litter rate (8.96 Mg ha), alum reduced total dissolved P and total P concentrations in leachate by 83 and 80%, respectively, compared with untreated litter. These results indicate that alum additions to poultry litter significantly reduced soluble and total P fractions in leachate.

Water-Extractable Phosphorus in Animal Manure and Manure Compost: Quantities, Characteristics, and Temporal Changes.

Water-extractable P (WEP) in manure and manure compost is widely used as an indicator of P release to runoff from manure and compost that are land applied. A survey of 600 manures and composts was conducted to assess trends in WEP (dry weight equivalent) related to manure and compost types from sources in the Mid-Atlantic region. Manure and compost WEP ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 g kg. Mean WEP was highest in turkey and swine manures (manure: 4.1-5.6 g kg; no composts tested), followed by layer and broiler chicken manures (manure: 3.0-3.5 g kg; compost: 4.6-5.1 g kg), cattle manure (dairy and beef manure: 2.1-2.8 g kg; compost: 1.1-2.7 g kg), and horse manure (manure: 2.7 g kg; compost: 1.9 g kg). Across all manures and composts, WEP was negatively correlated with manure dry matter content ( = 0.42, < 0.001). Moreover, WEP was strongly correlated ( = 0.66, < 0.001) to degree of P saturation expressed as a molar ratio of total P to total metals (Ca, Mg, Fe, Al, and Mn). Although WEP levels of beef, broiler chicken, and turkey manures from this survey are similar to those from a decade ago, WEP is now significantly lower for dairy (30%, < 0.001), swine (46%, < 0.001), and layer chickens (39%, < 0.05). Lower WEP resulted from decreasing total P and/or increasing P sorption capacity, combined with increasing dry matter content. Results highlight the potential to use degree of P saturation to predict WEP and suggest an opportunity to reduce WEP by managing manure handling, storage, and chemistry.

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application.

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.

Hydrology and Soil Manipulations of Iron-Rich Ditch Mesocosms Provide Little Evidence of Phosphorus Capture within the Profile.

Agricultural drainage ditches function as first-order streams and affect nutrient management. Soil mesocosms from a ditch featuring a vertical (increasing upward) gradient in iron (Fe) and phosphorus (P) were subjected to hydraulic and soil treatments. These manipulations mimicked aspects of dredging and controlled drainage and inspected the soil release and retention of P. Treatments did not remove P from simulated groundwater. Throughput water either gained in P (lack of dredging, especially under Fe-reducing conditions) or had P concentrations indistinguishable from input water (dredging). Undredged mesocosms, when Fe-reducing, released Fe and P simultaneously. Simultaneous release of P and Fe from our Fe-reducing mesocosms indicates a mechanism whereby P capture occurs by Fe precipitation upon emergence to aerated surficial waters. Upwelling and surficial phases of ditch hydrology and the lowering of the ditch surface on dredging complicate interpretation of traditional means of describing ditch P retention and release.

Temperature and Nitrogen Effects on Phosphorus Uptake by Agricultural Stream-Bed Sediments.

Climate change will likely increase the growing season, temperatures, and ratio of nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) loss from land to water. However, it is unknown how these factors influence P concentrations in streams. We sought to evaluate differences in biotic and abiotic processes affecting stream sediment P dynamics under different temperature and N-enrichment regimes. Three sediments of varying P composition and sorption characteristics were placed into a fluvarium. Synthetic runoff water, with or without added N, was added to the flume's reservoir, and the solution was maintained at 19 or 26°C. Water and sediment samples were taken with time since runoff was introduced. The rate and magnitude of P uptake by sediment was greater at 19°C compared with 26°C, and also when N was added compared with no N added. Analysis of sediment samples indicated that P uptake via abiotic processes was greater at 19 than at 26°C. The addition of N stimulated P uptake by the microbial biomass at 19°C, but microbial uptake was potentially inhibited at 26°C. Because microbial biomass is a temporary store of P, these data suggest that more P may be available with increasing temperatures during the growing season, especially under baseflow, implying that strategies to mitigate P losses from land to water should be strengthened to prevent potential water quality impairment.

Managing Surface Water Inputs to Reduce Phosphorus Loss from Cranberry Farms.

Cranberry ( Ait.) production in Massachusetts represents one-fourth of the US cranberry supply, but water quality concerns, water use, and wetland protection laws challenge the future viability of the state's cranberry industry. Pond water used for harvest and winter flooding accounts for up to two-thirds of phosphorus (P) losses in drainage waters. Consequently, use of P sorbing salts to treat pond water holds promise in the mitigation of P losses from cranberry farms. Laboratory evaluation of aluminum (Al)-, iron (Fe)-, and calcium (Ca)-based salts was conducted to determine the application rate required for reducing P in shallow (0.4 m) and deep (3.2 m) water ponds used for cranberry production. Limited P removal (<22%) with calcium carbonate and calcium sulfate was consistent with their relatively low solubility in water. Calcium hydroxide reduced total P up to 49%, but increases in pond water pH (>8) could be detrimental to cranberry production. Ferric sulfate and aluminum sulfate applications of 15 mg L (ppm) resulted in near-complete removal of total P, which decreased from 49 ± 3 to <10 µg P L (ppb). However, ferric sulfate application lowered pH below the recommend range for cranberry soils. Field testing of aluminum sulfate demonstrated that at a dose of 15 mg L (∼1.4 Al mg L), total P in pond water was reduced by 78 to 94%. Laboratory and field experiments support the recommendation of aluminum sulfate as a cost-effective remedial strategy for reducing elevated P in surface water used for cranberry production.

Analyzing Within-County Hydrogeomorphological Characteristics as a Precursor to Phosphorus Index Modifications.

Phosphorus (P) site assessment is used nationally and internationally to assess the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss and identify high-risk areas controlling watershed P export. Current efforts to update P site assessment tools must ensure that these tools are representative of the range of conditions to which they will be applied. We sought to identify key parameters available in public GIS data that are descriptive of potential source areas in Pennsylvania and that ensure that modifications of the P Index span all feasible parameter combinations. Relevant soil and topographic variables were compiled for Pennsylvania at 30-m resolution, and areas within 90 m of permanent streams were extracted. Within each county, -means and classification trees were used to identify and create classification rules for topoedaphic groups. Within counties, two to five groups adequately represented near-stream complexity, with available water capacity, hydraulic conductivity, and organic matter being the most important environmental variables. Discontinuities across soil survey boundaries made it impossible to develop clusterings beyond the county level. For county-scale research and management efforts, these groupings provide a manageable approach to identifying representative sites for near-stream agricultural lands. The full set of representative sites across the state enables evaluation of the P Index throughout the full hydrogeomorphic diversity of Pennsylvania. In future work, we can then combine a set of reasonable management practices with each of the main hydrogeomorphological regions resulting from this study and verify the revised P Index against expert knowledge and simulation results.

Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure.