An analysis of mating biases in trees.

Assortative mating is a deviation from random mating based on phenotypic similarity. As it is much better studied in animals than in plants, we investigate for trees whether kinship of realized mating pairs deviates from what is expected from the set of potential mates and use this information to infer mating biases that may result from kin recognition and/or assortative mating. Our analysis covers 20 species of trees for which microsatellite data is available for adult populations (potential mates) as well as seed arrays. We test whether mean relatedness of observed mating pairs deviates from null expectations that only take pollen dispersal distances into account (estimated from the same data set). This allows the identification of elevated as well as reduced kinship among realized mating pairs, indicative of positive and negative assortative mating, respectively. The test is also able to distinguish elevated biparental inbreeding that occurs solely as a result of related pairs growing closer to each other from further assortativeness. Assortative mating in trees appears potentially common but not ubiquitous: nine data sets show mating bias with elevated inbreeding, nine do not deviate significantly from the null expectation, and two show mating bias with reduced inbreeding. While our data sets lack direct information on phenology, our investigation of the phenological literature for each species identifies flowering phenology as a potential driver of positive assortative mating (leading to elevated inbreeding) in trees. Since active kin recognition provides an alternative hypothesis for these patterns, we encourage further investigations on the processes and traits that influence mating patterns in trees.

Long-term impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease among children in Finland.

BACKGROUND: The ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the Finnish National Vaccination Programme (NVP) in September 2010. The impact of PCV10 vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in vaccine-eligible children has been high. We evaluated the long-term impact of PCV10 vaccination against IPD in vaccine-eligible and older, unvaccinated children six years after PCV10 introduction with a special focus on cross-protection against PCV10-related serotypes (serotypes in the same serogroups as the PCV10 types). METHODS: We used data on IPD from the national, population-based surveillance. A target cohort of vaccine-eligible children (born June 2010 or later) was followed from 3 months of age until the end of 2016. For the indirect effect, another cohort of older PCV10-ineligible children was followed from 2012 through 2016. IPD rates were compared with those of season- and age-matched reference cohorts before NVP introduction. RESULTS: Among vaccine-eligible children, the incidence of all IPD decreased by 79% (95% CI 74-83%). There was a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of 6A IPD, but for 19A, the reduction was non-significant and the incidence of 19A increased towards the end of the study period in the older vaccine-eligible children. The increase in non-PCV10 related serotypes was non-significant. In the unvaccinated older children, the incidence of all IPD decreased by 33% (95% CI 8-52%) compared to the reference cohort, and there was no impact on serotype 6A or 19A IPD. CONCLUSION: Overall, the impact of PCV10 vaccination on IPD was high in vaccine-eligible children, with a major reduction in vaccine-type disease, and without notable replacement by other serotype groups. Our data suggest that PCV10 results in long-lasting direct cross-protection against 6A IPD. For 19A, no net reduction was observed six years after NVP introduction in the vaccine-eligible cohort. The indirect impact on IPD in unvaccinated children sustained.

Female fertilization: effects of sex-specific density and sex ratio determined experimentally for Colorado potato beetles and Drosophila fruit flies.

If males and females affect reproduction differentially, understanding and predicting sexual reproduction requires specification of response surfaces, that is, two-dimensional functions that relate reproduction to the (numeric) densities of both sexes. Aiming at rigorous measurement of female per capita fertilization response surfaces, we conducted a multifactorial experiment and reanalyzed an extensive data set. In our experiment, we varied the density of male and female Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Colorado potato beetles) by placing different numbers of the two sexes on enclosed Solanum tuberosum (potato plants) to determine the proportion of females fertilized after 3 or 22 hours. In the reanalysis, we investigated how the short-term fertilization probability of three Drosophila strains (melanogaster ebony, m. sepia, and simulans) depended on adult sex ratio (proportion of males) and total density. The fertilization probability of female Leptinotarsa decemlineata increased logistically with male density, but not with female density. These effects were robust to trial duration. The fertilization probability of female Drosophila increased logistically with both sex ratio and total density. Treatment effects interacted in m. sepia, and simulans. These findings highlight the importance of well-designed, multifactorial experiments and strengthen previous experimental evidence for the relevance of sex-specific densities to understanding and prediction of female fertilization probability.

Spatial seed and pollen games: dispersal, sex allocation, and the evolution of dioecy.

The evolutionary forces shaping within- and across-species variation in the investment in male and female sex function are still incompletely understood. Despite earlier suggestions that in plants the evolution or cosexuality vs. dioecy, as well as sex allocation among cosexuals, is affected by seed and pollen dispersal, no formal model has explicitly used dispersal distances to address this problem. Here, we present a game-theory model as well as a simulation study that fills in this gap. Our model predicts that dioecy should evolve if seeds and pollen disperse widely and that sex allocation among cosexuals should be biased towards whichever sex function produces more widely dispersing units. Dispersal limitations stabilize cosexuality by reinforcing competition between spatially clumped dispersal units from the same source, leading to saturating fitness returns that render sexual specialization unprofitable. However, limited pollen dispersal can also increase the risk of selfing, thus potentially selecting for dioecy as an outbreeding mechanism. Finally, we refute a recent claim that cosexuals should always invest equally in both sex functions.

Evolution of frequency-dependent mate choice: keeping up with fashion trends.

The diversity of sexual traits favoured by females is enormous and, curiously, includes preferences for males with rare or novel phenotypes. We modelled the evolution of a preference for rarity that yielded two surprising results. First, a Fisherian 'sexy son' effect can boost female preferences to a frequency well above that predicted by mutation-selection balance, even if there are significant mortality costs for females. Preferences do not reach fixation, however, as they are subject to frequency-dependent selection: if choosy females are too common, then rare genotypes in one generation become common, and thus unattractive, in the offspring generation. Nevertheless, even at relatively low frequency, preferences maintain polymorphism in male traits. The second unexpected result is that the preferences can evolve to much higher frequencies if choice is hindered, such that females cannot always express their preferences. Our results emphasize the need to consider feedback where preferences determine the dynamics of male genotypes and vice versa. They also highlight the similarity between the arbitrariness of behavioural norms in models of social evolution with punishment (the so-called 'folk theorem') and the diversity of sexual traits that can be preferred simply because deviating from the norm produces unattractive offspring and is, in this sense, 'punished'.