DNA-testing for immigration cases: the risk of erroneous conclusions.

Making the correct decision based on results from DNA analyses and other information in family reunification cases can be complicated for a number of reasons. These include stratified populations, cultural differences in family constellations, families with different population origin, and complicated family relations giving complex pedigrees. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of erroneous conclusions in immigration cases and to propose alternative procedures to current methods to reduce the risk of making such errors. A simulation model was used to study different issues. For simplicity, we focus on cases which can be formulated as questions about paternity. We present an overview of error rates (of falsely included men as the true father and of falsely excluded true fathers) for fairly standard computations, and we show how these are affected by different factors. For example, adding more DNA markers to a case will decrease the error rates, as will the inclusion of more children. We found that using inappropriate population frequency databases had just minor effects on the error rates, but the likelihood ratios varied from an underestimation of 100 times up to an overestimation of 100,000 times. To reduce the risk of falsely including a man related to the true father we propose a more refined prior including five hypotheses instead of the two normally used. Simulations showed that this method gave reduced error rates compared with standard computations, even when the prior does not exactly correspond to reality.

DNA microarray analysis of transforming growth factor-beta and related transcripts in nasal biopsies from patients with allergic rhinitis.

Decreased activity of anti-inflammatory cytokines like transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta may contribute to allergic inflammation. In vivo effects of TGF-beta-effects are difficult to infer from local concentrations, since TGF-beta-effects depend on a complex system of regulatory proteins and receptors. Instead the effects of TGF-beta might be inferred by examining TGF-beta-inducible transcripts. In this study DNA microarrays were used to examine local expression of TGF-beta, TGF-beta-regulatory and -inducible transcripts in nasal biopsies from patients with symptomatic allergic rhinitis and healthy controls. In addition, nasal fluids were analysed with cytological and immunological methods. Nasal fluid eosinophils, albumin, eosinophil granulae proteins and IgE, but not TGF-beta, were higher in patients than in controls. DNA microarray analysis of nasal mucosa showed expression of transcripts encoding TGF-beta, TGF-beta-regulatory proteins and -receptors at variable levels in patients and controls. By comparison, analysis of 28 TGF-beta-inducible transcripts indicated that 23 of these had lower measurement values in patients than in controls, while one was higher, and the remaining four were absent in both patients and controls. In summary, TGF-beta and a complex system of regulatory genes and receptors are expressed in the nasal mucosa. Low expression of TGF-beta-inducible transcripts may indicate decreased TGF-beta activity in allergic rhinitis. DNA microarray analysis may be a way to study cytokine effects in vivo.