Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients.

PURPOSE: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (LRR) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. >or =4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). RESULTS: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on either LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. CONCLUSION: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.

Prognostic significance of parapharyngeal space venous plexus and marrow involvement: potential landmarks of dissemination for stage I-III nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the parapharyngeal space venous plexus and marrow of the skull base bones are anatomic landmarks of the potential routes for the spread of disease for Stage I-III (American Joint Commission on Cancer 1997 staging system) nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 364 patients with NPC were enrolled in this study. The selection criteria were Stage I-III disease and primary radiotherapy at our hospital between 1990 and 2001. All patients had undergone MRI to evaluate the head-and-neck tumors. Patients who had undergone inadequate radiotherapy at a dose of <60 Gy and/or preradiotherapy chemotherapy before the imaging evaluation were excluded from the study. RESULTS: Of the 364 patients treated between 1990 and 2001, 163 (44.8%) had low-risk Stage I-III NPC (without parapharyngeal space extension or T3 disease). The 5-year distant metastasis-free survival rate, with and without adjuvant chemotherapy, was 97% and 96%, respectively. The remaining 201 patients had Stage II-III with parapharyngeal space extension or T3 disease. Their 5-year recurrence-free survival rate, with and without adjuvant chemotherapy, was 76.8% and 53.2% (p = 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the risk of distant metastasis in Stage I-III NPC patients without parapharyngeal space extension or T3 disease is extremely low. Invasion into the parapharyngeal space venous plexus and marrow of the skull base bones is associated with distant metastasis, and involvement of these anatomic sites is considered a potential route for hematogenous disease spread in patients with Stage I-III NPC.