Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. CONCLUSIONS: The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Season of birth, neonatal vitamin D status, and cardiovascular disease risk at 35 y of age: a cohort study from Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Lower vitamin D status during gestation may be associated with cardiovascular disease risk later in life. No studies have assessed this hypothesis with a follow-up time reaching beyond childhood. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the link between season of birth, neonatal 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] status, and adult cardiovascular disease risk. DESIGN: Markers of cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk were measured in 284 subjects aged 35 y, born either at the end of the winter or at the end of the summer of 1975. In 275 of these 284 subjects, concentrations of neonatal 25(OH)D3 were measured in dried blood samples by using a highly sensitive liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectroscopy method. RESULTS: Subjects born after the winter had lower neonatal 25(OH)D3 concentrations than did those born after the summer (31.5 compared with 48.5 nmol/L; P < 0.001). In regression analyses adjusted for sex, season of birth, postnatal age at neonatal sample collection, preterm birth, maternal age, education, smoking, fish consumption per week, exercise per week, and current 25-hydroxyvitamin D, higher neonatal 25(OH)D3 (per 50 nmol/L) was associated with 25.8% (95% CI: 1.0%, 58.4%) higher fasting insulin in adult life, 29.6% (5.1%, 58.4%) higher triglycerides, and 4.64 (95% CI: 1.93, 7.36) mmol/L higher serum cholesterol in women. Neonatal 25(OH)D3 (per 1 nmol/L) was directly associated with risk of adult overweight (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) and with adult obesity in women (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.17). Neonatal 25(OH)D3 was not associated with adult aortic pulse wave velocity, blood pressure, fasting glucose, HDL, LDL, or C-reactive protein. Season of birth was not associated with any of the adult outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Higher neonatal 25(OH)D3 was associated with higher fasting insulin, triglyceride, and cholesterol (in women) concentrations and with a higher risk of overweight at 35 y of age but not with other adult cardiovascular disease risk factors.