Reducing chronic disease through changes in food aid: A microsimulation of nutrition and cardiometabolic disease among Palestinian refugees in the Middle East.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease and have become leading causes of morbidity and mortality among Palestinian refugees in the Middle East, many of whom live in long-term settlements and receive grain-based food aid. The objective of this study was to estimate changes in type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality attributable to a transition from traditional food aid to either (i) a debit card restricted to food purchases, (ii) cash, or (iii) an alternative food parcel with less grain and more fruits and vegetables, each valued at $30/person/month. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An individual-level microsimulation was created to estimate relationships between food aid delivery method, food consumption, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality using demographic data from the United Nations (UN; 2017) on 5,340,443 registered Palestinian refugees in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, food consumption data (2011-2017) from households receiving traditional food parcel delivery of food aid (n = 1,507 households) and electronic debit card delivery of food aid (n = 1,047 households), and health data from a random 10% sample of refugees receiving medical care through the UN (2012-2015; n = 516,386). Outcome metrics included incidence per 1,000 person-years of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, microvascular events (end-stage renal disease, diabetic neuropathy, and proliferative diabetic retinopathy), and all-cause mortality. The model estimated changes in total calories, sodium and potassium intake, fatty acid intake, and overall dietary quality (Mediterranean Dietary Score [MDS]) as mediators to each outcome metric. We did not observe that a change from food parcel to electronic debit card delivery of food aid or to cash aid led to a meaningful change in consumption, biomarkers, or disease outcomes. By contrast, a shift to an alternative food parcel with less grain and more fruits and vegetables was estimated to produce a 0.08 per 1,000 person-years decrease in the incidence of hypertension (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05-0.11), 0.18 per 1,000 person-years decrease in the incidence of type 2 diabetes (95% CI 0.14-0.22), 0.18 per 1,000 person-years decrease in the incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (95% CI 0.17-0.19), and 0.02 decrease per 1,000 person-years all-cause mortality (95% CI 0.01 decrease to 0.04 increase) among those receiving aid. The benefits of this shift, however, could be neutralized by a small (2%) increase in compensatory (out-of-pocket) increases in consumption of refined grains, fats and oils, or confectionaries. A larger alternative parcel requiring an increase in total food aid expenditure by 27% would be more likely to have a clinically meaningful improvement on type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the supposition in the literature, our findings do not robustly support the theory that transitioning from traditional food aid to either debit card or cash delivery alone would necessarily reduce chronic disease outcomes. Rather, an alternative food parcel would be more effective, even after matching current budget ceilings. But compensatory increases in consumption of less healthy foods may neutralize the improvements from an alternative food parcel unless total aid funding were increased substantially. Our analysis is limited by uncertainty in estimates of modeling long-term outcomes from shorter-term trials, focusing on diabetes and cardiovascular outcomes for which validated equations are available instead of all nutrition-associated health outcomes, and using data from food frequency questionnaires in the absence of 24-hour dietary recall data.

Effects of a Low Dose of Fish Oil on Inflammatory Markers of Brazilian HIV-Infected Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy: A Randomized, Parallel, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected subjects have been limited by an increased risk of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of a low dose of marine omega-3 fatty acids on inflammatory marker concentrations in HIV-infected subjects under antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: This was a randomized, parallel, placebo-controlled trial that investigated the effects of 3 g fish oil/day (540 mg of eicosapentaenoic acid-EPA plus 360 mg of docosahexaenoic acid-DHA) or 3 g soy oil/day (placebo) for 24 weeks in 83 male and non-pregnant female HIV-infected adults on ART. RESULTS: There were no differences between groups for the measures at baseline. Multilevel analyses revealed no statistically significant relationship between the longitudinal changes in high sensitivity-C reactive protein (hs-CRP) (Wald Chi2 = 0.17, p = 0.918), fibrinogen (Wald Chi2 = 3.82, p = 0.148), and factor VIII (Wald Chi2 = 5.25, p = 0.073) with fish oil. No significant changes in interleukin-6 (IL6), interleukin-1 beta (IL1-beta) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) serum concentrations were observed with fish oil supplements for 12 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to placebo, a low dose of 900 mg omega-3 fatty acids (EPA plus DHA) in fish oil capsules did not change hs-CRP, fibrinogen, factor VIII, IL6, IL1-beta and TNF-alpha serum concentrations in HIV-infected subjects on ART. Further investigations should consider the assessment of more sensitive inflammatory markers or higher doses to evaluate the effects of marine omega-3 fatty acids in this population. Registered at the Nederlands Trial Register, Identifier no. NTR1798.

Effects of fish oil on lipid profile and other metabolic outcomes in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: a randomized placebo-controlled trial.

Although antiretroviral therapy has revolutionized the care of HIV-infected patients, it has been associated with metabolic abnormalities. Hence, this study was planned to investigate the effects of fish oil on lipid profile, insulin resistance, and body fat distribution in HIV-infected Brazilian patients on antiretroviral therapy, considering that marine omega-3 fatty acids seem to improve features of the metabolic syndrome. We conducted a randomized, parallel, placebo-controlled trial that assessed the effects of 3 g fish oil/day (540 mg of eicosapentaenoic acid plus 360 mg of docosahexaenoic acid) or 3 g soy oil/day (placebo) on 83 HIV-infected Brazilian men and non-pregnant women on antiretroviral therapy. No statistically significant relationships between fish oil supplementation and longitudinal changes in triglyceride (p = 0.335), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.078), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.383), total cholesterol (p = 0.072), apolipoprotein B (p = 0.522), apolipoprotein A1 (p = 0.420), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/apolipoprotein B ratio (p = 0.107), homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance index (p = 0.387), body mass index (p = 0.068), waist circumference (p = 0.128), and waist/hip ratio (p = 0.359) were observed. A low dose of fish oil did not alter lipid profile, insulin resistance, and body fat distribution in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy.

Access to care for patients with insulin-requiring diabetes in developing countries: case studies of Mozambique and Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the barriers to care for patients with insulin-requiring diabetes in Mozambique and Zambia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the Rapid Assessment Protocol for Insulin Access to collect information through interviews, discussions, site visits, and document reviews. Government organizations, health facilities, care givers, and patients were asked about care for people with insulin-requiring diabetes. Between 100 and 200 interviews/discussions per country were undertaken in and around the capital city and the regional capital and in a rural area. RESULTS: Insulin was present in both countries in sufficient quantities, although the financial burden for health services and patients meant that problems with supply exist. There are problems with quantification of needs and equitable distribution of insulin. Problems with availability of syringes and testing equipment were noted, particularly in Mozambique. This lack of tools and infrastructure for diagnosis and follow-up coupled with low levels of health care worker training and lack of diagnostic reagents resulted in a substantial risk of misdiagnosis or failure to detect diabetes. The estimated prevalence of insulin-requiring diabetes differs more than 10-fold between urban and rural areas in Mozambique and 4-fold between Mozambique and Zambia, suggesting that problems in diagnosis and care result in substantial worsening of prognosis for such patients. CONCLUSIONS: Insulin is necessary but not sufficient to improve prognosis for diabetic patients. A Rapid Assessment Protocol methodology can be used to define problems in health care delivery for diabetes. Proper care for insulin-requiring diabetes necessitates health systems able to provide trained personnel, medicines in sufficient quantity, and diagnostic and monitoring facilities.