The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Assessing scale-dependency of climate risks in coffee-based agroforestry systems.

Agroforestry is a management strategy for mitigating the negative impacts of climate and adapting to sustainable farming systems. The successful implementation of agroforestry strategies requires that climate risks are appropriately assessed. The spatial scale, a critical determinant influencing climate impact assessments and, subsequently, agroforestry strategies, has been an overlooked dimension in the literature. In this study, climate risk impacts on robusta coffee production were investigated at different spatial scales in coffee-based agroforestry systems across India. Data from 314 coffee farms distributed across the districts of Chikmagalur and Coorg (Karnataka state) and Wayanad (Kerala state) were collected during the 2015/2016 to 2017/2018 coffee seasons and were used to quantify the key climate drivers of coffee yield. Projected climate data for two scenarios of change in global climate corresponding to (1) current baseline conditions (1985-2015) and (2) global mean temperatures 2 °C above preindustrial levels were then used to assess impacts on robusta coffee yield. Results indicated that at the district scale rainfall variability predominantly constrained coffee productivity, while at a broader regional scale, maximum temperature was the most important factor. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario relative to the baseline (1985-2015) climatic conditions, the changes in coffee yield exhibited spatial-scale dependent disparities. Whilst modest increases in yield (up to 5%) were projected from district-scale models, at the regional scale, reductions in coffee yield by 10-20% on average were found. These divergent impacts of climate risks underscore the imperative for coffee-based agroforestry systems to develop strategies that operate effectively at various scales to ensure better resilience to the changing climate.

Navigating the nexus: climate dynamics and microplastics pollution in coastal ecosystems.

Microplastics (MPs) pollution is an emerging environmental health concern, impacting soil, plants, animals, and humans through their entry into the food chain via bioaccumulation. Human activities such as improper solid waste dumping are significant sources that ultimately transport MPs into the water bodies of the coastal areas. Moreover, there is a complex interplay between the coastal climate dynamics, environmental factors, the burgeoning issue of MPs pollution and the complex web of coastal pollution. We embark on a comprehensive journey, synthesizing the latest research across multiple disciplines to provide a holistic understanding of how these inter-connected factors shape and reshape the coastal ecosystems. The comprehensive review also explores the impact of the current climatic patterns on coastal regions, the intricate pathways through which MPs can infiltrate marine environments, and the cascading effects of coastal pollution on ecosystems and human societies in terms of health and socio-economic impacts in coastal regions. The novelty of this review concludes the changes in climate patterns have crucial effects on coastal regions, proceeding MPs as more prevalent, deteriorating coastal ecosystems, and hastening the transfer of MPs. The continuous rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and strong storms result in habitat loss, decline in biodiversity, and economic repercussion. Feedback mechanisms intensify pollution effects, underlying the urgent demand for environmental conservation contribution. In addition, the complex interaction between human, industry, and biodiversity demanding cutting edge strategies, innovative approaches such as remote sensing with artificial intelligence for monitoring, biobased remediation techniques, global cooperation in governance, policies to lessen the negative socioeconomic and environmental effects of coastal pollution.

Climate-Affected Australian Tropical Montane Cloud Forest Plants: Metabolomic Profiles, Isolated Phytochemicals, and Bioactivities.

The Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in northeast Queensland is home to approximately 18 percent of the nation's total vascular plant species. Over the past century, human activity and industrial development have caused global climate changes, posing a severe and irreversible danger to the entire land-based ecosystem, and the WTWHA is no exception. The current average annual temperature of WTWHA in northeast Queensland is 24 °C. However, in the coming years (by 2030), the average annual temperature increase is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.4 °C compared to the climate observed between 1986 and 2005. Looking further ahead to 2070, the anticipated temperature rise is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.2 °C, with the exact range depending on future emissions. We identified 84 plant species, endemic to tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) within the WTWHA, which are already experiencing climate change threats. Some of these plants are used in herbal medicines. This study comprehensively reviewed the metabolomics studies conducted on these 84 plant species until now toward understanding their physiological and metabolomics responses to global climate change. This review also discusses the following: (i) recent developments in plant metabolomics studies that can be applied to study and better understand the interactions of wet tropics plants with climatic stress, (ii) medicinal plants and isolated phytochemicals with structural diversity, and (iii) reported biological activities of crude extracts and isolated compounds.

Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River (Italy): Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus.

Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution, but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change, and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still unexplored. The Po River basin (northern Italy) is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in Europe. It remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal areas. The present work addresses the long-term trends (1992-2020) of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge trajectories. Despite the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin, a marked decrease (-20%) in nitrogen export, mostly as nitrate, was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990s, while no significant downward trend was observed for phosphorus. The water temperature of the Po River has warmed, with the most pronounced signals in summer (+0.13°C/year) and autumn (+0.16°C/year), together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days (+70%-80%). An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification, resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the sea. The present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism, thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn, when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.

Do renewable energy sources perfectly displace non-renewable energy sources? Evidence from Asia-Pacific economies.

The existing scholarly discourse surrounding the energy transition has long operated on the assumption of perfect displacement of non-renewable energy. However, an evolving set of studies highlights an intricate web of inefficiencies and complexities that prevent the perfect displacement of fossil fuel energy with renewable energy production. Since this could carry serious implications for the environmental targets of several economies, it is crucial to accurately and continuously measure the actual extent of fossil fuel displacement. Within this framework, this study empirically investigates the extent of non-renewable energy displacement by renewable energy for a balanced panel of seven Asia-Pacific (APAC) countries between 1989 and 2015. The outcome function also controls for globalisation, real GDP per capita, and crude oil prices. After implementing the necessary diagnostics, the panel cointegration establishes a significant long-run relationship among the selected variables. The PMG-ARDL estimation indicates that renewable energy production and globalisation significantly reduce the fossil fuel energy production, whereas real GDP per capita and crude oil prices induce it positively. However, the coefficient of renewable energy production is only - 0.39, indicating that more than 2.5 units of renewable electricity are necessary to displace a unit of non-renewable energy. As such, this study concludes that the current energy transition in Asia-Pacific region is not perfect. These results are robust to the usage of the FGLS estimation technique. The study suggests the adoption of a new energy transition that allows greater displacement of fossil fuel energy as well as gradual reduction in overall energy use.

A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today.

Warmer temperatures and higher sea level than today characterized the Last Interglacial interval [Pleistocene, 128 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. This period is a remarkable deep-time analog for temperature and sea-level conditions as projected for 2100 AD, yet there has been no evidence of fossil assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic. Here, we report foraminifer, metazoan (mollusks, bony fish, bryozoans, decapods, and sharks among others), and plant communities of coastal tropical marine and mangrove affinities, dating precisely from a ca. 130 to 115 ka time interval near the Equator, at Kourou, in French Guiana. These communities include ca. 230 recent species, some being endangered today and/or first recorded as fossils. The hyperdiverse Kourou mollusk assemblage suggests stronger affinities between Guianese and Caribbean coastal waters by the Last Interglacial than today, questioning the structuring role of the Amazon Plume on tropical Western Atlantic communities at the time. Grassland-dominated pollen, phytoliths, and charcoals from younger deposits in the same sections attest to a marine retreat and dryer conditions during the onset of the last glacial (ca. 110 to 50 ka), with a savanna-dominated landscape and episodes of fire. Charcoals from the last millennia suggest human presence in a mosaic of modern-like continental habitats. Our results provide key information about the ecology and biogeography of pristine Pleistocene tropical coastal ecosystems, especially relevant regarding the-widely anthropogenic-ongoing global warming.

Farm Animal Welfare-From the Farmers' Perspective.

Improvements in the welfare of animals in the intensive production industries are increasingly being demanded by the public. Scientific methods of welfare improvement have been developed and are beginning to be used on farms, including those provided by precision livestock farming. The number of welfare challenges that animals are facing in the livestock production industries is growing rapidly, and farmers are a key component in attempts to improve welfare because their livelihood is at stake. The challenges include climate change, which not only exposes animals to heat stress but also potentially reduces forage and water availability for livestock production systems. Heat-stressed animals have reduced welfare, and it is important to farmers that they convert feed to products for human consumption less efficiently, their immune system is compromised, and both the quality of the products and the animals' reproduction are adversely affected. Livestock farmers are also facing escalating feed and fertiliser costs, both of which may jeopardise feed availability for the animals. The availability of skilled labour to work in livestock industries is increasingly limited, with rural migration to cities and the succession of older farmers uncertain. In future, high-energy and protein feeds are unlikely to be available in large quantities when required for the expanding human population. It is expected that livestock farming will increasingly be confined to marginal land offering low-quality pasture, which will favour ruminant livestock, at the expense of pigs and poultry unable to readily digest coarse fibre in plants. Farmers also face disease challenges to their animals' welfare, as the development of antibiotic resistance in microbes has heralded an era when we can no longer rely on antibiotics to control disease or improve the feed conversion efficiency of livestock. Farmers can use medicinal plants, pro-, pre- and synbiotics and good husbandry to help maintain a high standard of health in their animals. Loss of biodiversity in livestock breeds reduces the availability of less productive genotypes that survive better on nutrient-poor diets than animals selected for high productivity. Farmers have a range of options to help address these challenges, including changing to less intensive diets, diversification from livestock farming to other enterprises, such as cereal and pseudocereal crops, silvopastoral systems and using less highly selected breeds. These options may not always produce good animal welfare, but they will help to give farm animals a better life.

Plant-soil interactions alter nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in an advancing subarctic treeline.

Treelines advance due to climate warming. The impacts of this vegetation shift on plant-soil nutrient cycling are still uncertain, yet highly relevant as nutrient availability stimulates tree growth. Here, we investigated nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in plant and soil pools along two tundra-forest transects on Kola Peninsula, Russia, with a documented elevation shift of birch-dominated treeline by 70 m during the last 50 years. Results show that although total N and P stocks in the soil-plant system did not change with elevation, their distribution was significantly altered. With the transition from high-elevation tundra to low-elevation forest, P stocks in stones decreased, possibly reflecting enhanced weathering. In contrast, N and P stocks in plant biomass approximately tripled and available P and N in the soil increased fivefold toward the forest. This was paralleled by decreasing carbon (C)-to-nutrient ratios in foliage and litter, smaller C:N:P ratios in microbial biomass, and lower enzymatic activities related to N and P acquisition in forest soils. An incubation experiment further demonstrated manifold higher N and P net mineralization rates in litter and soil in forest compared to tundra, likely due to smaller C:N:P ratios in decomposing organic matter. Overall, our results show that forest expansion increases the mobilization of available nutrients through enhanced weathering and positive plant-soil feedback, with nutrient-rich forest litter releasing greater amounts of N and P upon decomposition. While the low N and P availability in tundra may retard treeline advances, its improvement toward the forest likely promotes tree growth and forest development.

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613-2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, -5.8-8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72 × 104/km2, encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in the total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33-46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41-22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km2). This study provides a theoretical foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and endangered medicinal plants in the QTP.

Understanding the interplay of occupational, public health, and climate-related risks for informal workers: A new framework with findings from Zimbabwe and India.

Globally, there are 2 billion 'informal' workers, who lack access to social protection while facing profound health risks and socioeconomic exclusions. The informal economy has generated most jobs in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), but few studies have explored informal workers' complex health vulnerabilities, including in the face of climate change. This paper will discuss recent action-research in Indore (India), Harare, and Masvingo (Zimbabwe) with informal workers like vendors, waste-pickers, and urban farmers. We conducted qualitative interviews (N = 110 in India), focus group discussions (N = 207 in Zimbabwe), and a quantitative survey (N = 418 in Zimbabwe). Many informal workers live in informal settlements ('slums'), and we highlight the interrelated health risks at their homes and workplaces. We explore how climate-related threats-including heatwaves, drought, and floods-negatively affect informal workers' health and livelihoods. These challenges often have gender-inequitable impacts. We also analyse workers' individual and collective responses. We propose a comprehensive framework to reveal the drivers of health in the informal economy, and we complement this holistic approach with a new research agenda. Our framework highlights the socioeconomic, environmental, and political determinants of informal workers' health. We argue that informal workers may face difficult trade-offs, due to competing priorities in the face of climate change and other risks. Future interventions will need to recognise informal workers' array of risks and co-develop multifaceted solutions, thereby helping to avoid such impossible choices. We recommend holistic initiatives to foster health and climate resilience, as well as participatory action-research partnerships and qualitative, intersectional data-collection with informal workers.

Building resilience to extreme weather events in Phoenix: Considering contaminated sites and disadvantaged communities.

The interplay of contaminated sites, climate change, and disadvantaged communities are a growing concern worldwide. Worsening extreme events may result in accidental contaminant releases from sites and waste facilities that may impact nearby communities. If such communities are already suffering from environmental, economic, health, or social burdens, they may face disproportionate impacts. Equitable resilience planning to address effects of extreme events requires information on where the impacts may be, when they may occur, and who might be impacted. Because resources are often scarce for these communities, conducting detailed modeling may be cost-prohibitive. By considering indicators for four sources of vulnerability (changing extreme heat conditions, contaminated sites, contaminant transport via wind, and population sensitivities) in one holistic framework, we provide a scientifically robust approach that can assist planners with prioritizing resources and actions. These indicators can serve as screening measures to identify communities that may be impacted most and isolate the reasons for these impacts. Through a transdisciplinary case study conducted in Maricopa County (Arizona, USA), we demonstrate how the framework and geospatial indicators can be applied to inform plans for preparedness, response, and recovery from the effects of extreme heat on contaminated sites and nearby populations. The indicators employed in this demonstration can be applied to other locations with contaminated sites to build community resilience to future climate impacts.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change.

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Climate change intensifies algal biomass resurgence in eutrophic Lake Taihu, China.

Climate change can significantly alter phytoplankton growth and proliferation, which would counteract restoration efforts to control algal blooms. However, the knowledge is limited about the quantitative evaluation of the causal effect of algal biomass resurgence in large shallow lakes where there is no significant improvement after long term lake restoration. Here, a bucket process-based phytoplankton dynamic model is developed to quantify the contributions of climate change and nutrients concentration changes to phytoplankton biomass resurgence after 2014 in hypereutrophic Lake Taihu, China. Compared to 2008-2014, the mean water temperature (WT) and the mean phosphate are higher, the mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the mean total suspended solids (TSS), and the mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are lower, during 2015-2020. Their contribution to algal biomass resurgence during 2015-2020 is WT (+58.7 %), PAR (-2.6 %), TSS (+23.2 %), DIN (-22.1 %) and phosphate (+42.7 %), respectively. Climate change (WT, PAR, and TSS), which contributed +64.9 % to the phytoplankton biomass resurgence, underscores the urgent need to continuously take more effective measures to reduce nutrient emissions to offset the effects of climate change in Lake Taihu and in other eutrophic lakes.

Carbon neutrality in wastewater treatment plants: An integrated biotechnological-based solution for nutrients recovery, odour abatement and CO2 conversion in alternative energy drivers.

Wastewater treatment plants play a crucial role in water security and sanitation, ensuring ecosystems balance and avoiding significant negative effects on humans and environment. However, they determine also negative pressures, including greenhouse gas and odourous emissions, which should be minimized to mitigate climate changes besides avoiding complaints. The research has been focused on the validation of an innovative integrated biological system for the sustainable treatment of complex gaseous emissions from wastewater treatment plants. The proposed system consists of a moving bed biofilm reactor coupled with an algal photobioreactor, with the dual objective of: i) reducing the inlet concentration of the odourous contaminants (in this case, hydrogen sulphide, toluene and p-xylene); ii) capturing and converting the carbon dioxide emissions produced by the degradation process into exploitable algal biomass. The first reactor promoted the degradation of chemical compounds up to 99.57% for an inlet load (IL) of 22.97 g m-3 d-1 while the second allowed the capture of the CO2 resulting from the degradation of gaseous compounds, with biofixation rate up to 81.55%. The absorbed CO2 was converted in valuable feedstocks, with a maximum algal biomass productivity in aPBR of 0.22 g L-1 d-1. Dairy wastewater has been used as alternative nutrient source for both reactors, with a view of reusing wastewater while cultivating biomass, framing the proposed technology in a context of a biorefinery within a circular economy perspective. The biomass produced in the algal photobioreactor was indeed characterized by a high lipid content, with a maximum percentage of lipids per dry weight biomass of 35%. The biomass can therefore be exploited for the production of alternative and clean energy carrier. The proposed biotechnology represents an effective tool for shifiting the conventional plants in carbon neutral platform for implementing principles of ecological transition while achieving high levels of environmental protection.

A scoping review of human health co-benefits of forest-based climate change mitigation in Europe.

Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation.

Plant responses to elevated CO2 under competing hypotheses of nitrogen and phosphorus limitations.

The future ecosystem carbon cycle has important implications for biosphere-climate feedback. The magnitude of future plant growth and carbon accumulation depends on plant strategies for nutrient uptake under the stresses of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) limitations. Two archetypal theories have been widely acknowledged in the literature to represent N and P limitations on ecosystem processes: Liebig's Law of the Minimum (LLM) and the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) approach. LLM states that the more limiting nutrient controls plant growth, and commonly leads to predictions of dramatically dampened ecosystem carbon accumulation over the 21st century. Conversely, the MEL approach recognizes that plants possess multiple pathways to coordinate N and P availability and invest resources to alleviate N or P limitation. We implemented these two contrasting approaches in the E3SM model, and compiled 98 in situ forest N or P fertilization experiments to evaluate how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to N and P limitations. We find that MEL better captured the observed plant responses to nutrient perturbations globally, compared with LLM. Furthermore, LLM and MEL diverged dramatically in responses to elevated CO2 concentrations, leading to a two-fold difference in CO2 fertilization effects on Net Primary Productivity by the end of the 21st century. The larger CO2 fertilization effects indicated by MEL mainly resulted from plant mediation on N and P resource supplies through N2 fixation and phosphatase activities. This analysis provides quantitative evidence of how different N and P limitation strategies can diversely affect future carbon and nutrient dynamics.

Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model.

The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046-1059. © 2024 SETAC.

Genetic consequences of Last Glacial-Holocene changes in snowfall regime in Arnica mallotopus populations: A plant confined to heavy-snow areas of Japan.

PREMISE: Snow is an important environmental factor affecting plant distribution. Past changes in snowfall regimes may have controlled the demographies of snow-dependent plants. However, our knowledge of changes in the distribution and demographies of such plants is limited because of the lack of fossil records. METHODS: Population genetic and landscape genetic analyses were used to investigate the response of population dynamics of Arnica mallotopus (Asteraceae)-a plant confined to heavy-snow areas of Japan-to changes in snowfall regimes from the Last Glacial Period to the Holocene. RESULTS: The population genetic analysis suggested that the four geographic lineages diverged during the Last Glacial Period. The interaction between reduced snowfall and lower temperatures during this period likely triggered population isolation in separate refugia. Subpopulation differentiation in the northern group was lower than in the southern group. Our ecological niche model predicted that the current distribution was patchy in the southern region; that is, the populations were isolated by topologically flat and climatically unsuitable lowlands. The landscape genetic analysis suggested that areas with little snowfall acted as barriers to the Holocene expansion of species distribution and continued limiting gene flow between local populations. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that postglacial population responses vary among regions and are controlled by environmental and geographic factors. Thus, changes in snowfall regime played a major role in shaping the distribution and genetic structure of the snow-dependent plant.