Trend of incidence rate of age-related diseases: results from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) database in Korea: a cross- sectional study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify and select age-related diseases (ARDs) in Korea, which is about to have a super-aged society, and to elucidate patterns in their incidence rates. METHODS: The National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort, comprising 1 million health insurance and medical benefit beneficiaries in Korea from 2002 to 2019, was utilized. We selected 14 diseases with high disease burden and prevalence among Koreans from the 92 diseases defined in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study as ARDs. The annual incidence rate represented the number of patients newly diagnosed with an ARD each year from 2006 to 2019, excluding those with a history of ARD diagnosis from 2002 to 2005. The incidence rate by age was categorized into 10-year units based on age as of 2019. The number of patients with ARDs in each age group was used as the numerator, and the incidence rate for each age group was calculated with the age group as the denominator. RESULTS: Regarding the annual incidence rates of ARDs from 2006 to 2019, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, and ischemic heart disease decreased annually, whereas dyslipidemia, chronic kidney disease, cataracts, hearing loss, and Parkinson's disease showed a significant increase. Hypertension, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, osteoporosis, osteoarthritis, and age-related macular degeneration initially displayed a gradual decrease in incidence but exhibited a tendency to increase after 2015. Concerning age-specific incidence rates of ARDs, two types of curves emerged. The first type, characterized by an exponential increase with age, was exemplified by congestive heart failure. The second type, marked by an exponential increase peaking between ages 60 and 80, followed by stability or decrease, was observed in 13 ARDs, excluding congestive heart failure. However, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hearing loss in men belonged to the first type. CONCLUSIONS: From an epidemiological perspective, there are similar characteristics in age-specific ARDs that increase with age, reaching a peak followed by a plateau or decrease in Koreans.

The cost-effectiveness of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements for prevention of child death and malnutrition and promotion of healthy development: modelling results for Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Recent meta-analyses demonstrate that small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) for young children significantly reduce child mortality, stunting, wasting, anaemia and adverse developmental outcomes. Cost considerations should inform policy decisions. We developed a modelling framework to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of SQ-LNS and applied the framework in the context of rural Uganda. DESIGN: We adapted costs from a costing study of micronutrient powder (MNP) in Uganda, and based effectiveness estimates on recent meta-analyses and Uganda-specific estimates of baseline mortality and the prevalence of stunting, wasting, anaemia and developmental disability. SETTING: Rural Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. RESULTS: Providing SQ-LNS daily to all children in rural Uganda (> 1 million) for 12 months (from 6 to 18 months of age) via the existing Village Health Team system would cost ∼$52 per child (2020 US dollars) or ∼$58·7 million annually. SQ-LNS could avert an average of > 242 000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually as a result of preventing 3689 deaths, > 160 000 cases of moderate or severe anaemia and ∼6000 cases of developmental disability. The estimated cost per DALY averted is $242. CONCLUSIONS: In this context, SQ-LNS may be more cost-effective than other options such as MNP or the provision of complementary food, although the total cost for a programme including all age-eligible children would be high. Strategies to reduce costs, such as targeting to the most vulnerable populations and the elimination of taxes on SQ-LNS, may enhance financial feasibility.

Rabies research in Ethiopia: A systematic review.

Rabies is an important zoonosis in Ethiopia, where lack of research is cited as a constraint to implementation of the national rabies control strategy. We conducted a systematic review of publications and theses on rabies in Ethiopia, to document research gaps and areas of knowledge saturation in relation to geographic and species focus, methods and findings. We also examined funding sources and extent of local researcher participation. After screening titles and abstracts, the full text of 119 publications was included in data extraction. More than 40% of publications involved data collection in one region (Oromia); no publications reported findings from Benishangul-Gumuz, Dire Dawa or Gambella. Dogs and wildlife (especially Canis simensis) were the focus of research in 45% and 24% publications, respectively. Descriptive epidemiology (N = 39 publications), ethno-medicine/-pharmacology (N = 17) and knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys (KAP, N = 15) were amongst the most common study designs, while studies involving economic methods (N = 3) and experimental epidemiology to test interventions (N = 3) were under-represented. Incidence surveys (N = 9) commonly used post-exposure prophylaxis administration in humans as a proxy for exposure without laboratory confirmation of the rabies status of the animal. KAP surveys tended to highlight reasonable levels of knowledge of rabies and poor practices, including overreliance on medicinal plants. International researchers were the first or last (senior) author on 42% and 58% of publications, respectively, most of which were funded by international organizations (45/72 publications reporting funding source). Based on this systematic review, we suggest more applied research is needed to address gaps in laboratory surveillance (including in humans, domestic and wild animals); identify effective ways to overcome socio-cultural and other barriers to accessing effective rabies treatments; inform best approaches to incentivizing mass dog vaccination programs; and generate local estimates of the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness of different control strategies to improve financing and political buy-in for rabies control in Ethiopia.

Cardiovascular disease burden attributable to dietary risk factors from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dietary risks have always been a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), especially in young people. This article aimed to provide an updated and comprehensive view of the spatial, temporal and sexual heterogeneity in diet-attributable CVD burdens from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on diet-attributable CVD burdens were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were determined. Globally, the number of diet-attributable CVD deaths and DALYs in 2019 were 6.9 million and 153.2 million, marking 43.8% and 34.3% increases since 1990, respectively. However, ASRs of death and DALYs have declined over time. The regions with the highest ASRs of diet-related CVD deaths and DALYs were in Central Asia, whereas the lowest ASRs of CVD deaths and DALYs were observed in the high-income Asia Pacific region. Globally, men suffered higher death and DALY burdens than women. Ischemic heart disease and stroke were the leading causes of CVD deaths and DALYs, globally. Regarding the specific diet group, diets low in whole grains, high in sodium, low in fruits, low in nuts and seeds, low in vegetables and low in seafood omega-3 fatty acids contributed to CVD deaths and DALYs the most. Dietary risks accounted for a higher proportion in people aged less than 65 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Diet-attributable CVDs threaten public health, particularly in low SDI countries and younger generations. As diet-related CVDs are nation-specific, the prioritization of public health interventions should be evidence-based.

Application of BRAFO-tiered approach for health benefit-risk assessment of dark tea consumption in China.

Dark tea, a unique tea fermented primarily in China, has numerous potential beneficial effects. However, harmful substances present in dark tea have provoked significant concern. To conduct a quantitative benefit-risk assessment of dark tea for Chinese residents and provide guidance on rational consumption, a framework of Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods (BRAFO) and meta-analysis was applied to construct a disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Based on the BRAFO-tiered approach, a reference scenario (no intake) and an alternative scenario (intake of 3 cups/day) were determined. The overall health impacts of dark tea were simulated by comparing the risks of fluoride and AF with benefits of reduced-risk to coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes in different scenarios. Three cups of fermented tea consumed per day decreased risks of CHD and diabetes by 8.16% and 12.77% respectively. After quantitative integration of information, the ultimate net health effect was found to be -1958.827 illustrating that the benefits of drinking three cups of dark tea per day outweigh the risks. However, considering the uncertainties in the process, decision-makers should proceed with caution, consulting additional well-conducted studies and further managing harmful substances in dark tea.

Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. CONCLUSIONS: The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

The investment case for folic acid fortification in developing countries.

There is compelling evidence that neural tube defects can be prevented through mandatory folic acid fortification. Why, then, is an investment case needed? At the core of the answer to this question is the notion that governments and individuals have limited resources for which there are many competing claims. An investment case compares the costs and benefits of folic acid fortification relative to alternative life-saving investments and informs estimates of the financing required for implementation. Our best estimate is that the cost per death averted through mandatory folic acid fortification is $957 and the cost per disability-adjusted life year is $14.90. Both compare favorably to recommended life-saving interventions, such as the rotavirus vaccine and insecticide-treated bed nets. Thus, there is a strong economic argument for mandatory folic acid fortification. Further improvements to these estimates will require better data on the costs of implementing fortification and on the costs of improving compliance where regulations are already in place.

How Could Agronomic Biofortification of Rice Be an Alternative Strategy with Higher Cost-Effectiveness for Human Iron and Zinc Deficiency in China?

BACKGROUND: Iron and zinc deficiencies affect human health globally, especially in developing countries. Agronomic biofortification, as a strategy for alleviating these issues, has been focused on small-scale field studies, and not widely applied while lacking of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). OBJECTIVE: We conducted the CEA of agronomic biofortification, expressed as USD per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) saved, to recommend a cost-effectiveness strategy that can be widely applied. METHODS: The DALYs were applied to quantify the health burden due to Fe and/or Zn deficiency and health cost of agronomic biofortification via a single, dual, or triple foliar spray of Fe, Zn, and/or pesticide in 4 (northeast, central China, southeast, and southwest) major Chinese rice-based regions. RESULTS: The current health burden by Fe or Zn malnutrition was 0.45 to 1.45 or 0.14 to 0.84 million DALYs for these 4 regions. Compared to traditional rice diets, the daily Fe and/or Zn intake from Fe and/or Zn-biofortified rice increased, and the health burden of Fe and/or Zn deficiency decreased by 28% and 48%, respectively. The cost of saving 1 DALYs ranged from US$376 to US$4989, US$194 to US$2730, and US$37.6 to US$530.1 for the single, dual, and triple foliar Fe, Zn, and/or pesticide application, respectively, due to a substantial decrease in labor costs by the latter 2 applications. CONCLUSIONS: Agronomic biofortification of rice with the triple foliar spray of Fe, Zn, and pesticide is a rapidly effective and cost-effectiveness pathway to alleviate Fe and Zn deficiency for rice-based dietary populations.

Determining the disability adjusted life years lost to childhood and adolescence epilepsy in southeast Nigeria: An exploratory study.

OBJECTIVES: Disease burden has always been based on associated mortality. An accurate measurement of the burden of epilepsy should rely on both morbidity and mortality. This will close any existing gap in knowledge and provide useful information to aid evidence-based decision-making. In this study, burden of epilepsy was estimated, using disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs), using disability weights for epilepsy that were part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 work. METHODS: The study was conducted at the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu. Interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from patients with epilepsy who presented to neurology clinic. The prevalence of epilepsy, and case-fatality were obtained from previous publications. The DALYs were estimated by adding together the years lost to disability (YLDs) and years lost to life (YLLs) to epilepsy (DALYs=YLD+YLL). DALYs were dis-aggregated by age group and by whether or not epilepsy was treated. RESULTS: A total of 134 children with epilepsy-interviews were conducted. Some 56% and 44% of the subjects had primary and secondary epilepsy, respectively. The childhood epilepsy caused 1.63 YLLs per 1000 population, 0.45 YLDs per 1000 population and 2.08 DALY per 1000 population. The highest burden was in children within the age group of 5-14 years at 2.18 DALY per 1000 people. The YLDs was higher (0.63/1000 population) among the untreated group, compared with the YLDs (0.27/1000 population) among the treated group. The YLLs lost for children with secondary epilepsy (2.23/1000 population) was higher than primary epilepsy YLLs of 1.07/1000 population. SIGNIFICANCE: The DALYs due to childhood epilepsy was high. The YLDs was high among children with epilepsy who were not on treatment. The YLLs were found to be the same in all children with epilepsy, irrespective of their treatment status. This imperatively necessitates the de-emphasis on just mortality as an indicator of the burden of childhood epilepsy but rather a holistic approach should be adopted in considering both the mortality and disability in monitoring the outcome of health interventions.