Over two decades of Plasmodium knowlesi infections in Sarawak: Trend and forecast.

Malaria is still of great public health concern, especially in Malaysian Borneo. The aim of this study was to determine the trends of P. knowlesi infection in Sarawak, Malaysia and to forecast the incidence of P. knowlesi until the year 2040. Data on P. knowlesi malaria cases from 1992 to the year 2014 were obtained from the Sarawak Health Department, Malaysia. ARIMA model was applied to forecast the future incidence of P. knowlesi infection. The data for the whole of Sarawak and subsequently the selected six districts which have high incidence rates of P. knowlesi infection were analyzed. Results of the analysis showed that there was an increasing trend of P. knowlesi cases from the year 1992-2014 (p<0.001). The trend in the incidence started to increase in the year 2008 (p=0.029). The incidence rate per 100,000 populations was between 4.15 in the year 1992 and 42.03 in the year 2014. High incidence of P. knowlesi infections has been detected in the districts adjacent to each other within the interior region of Sarawak. The forecasted incidence and incidence rate per 100,000 populations in the year 2020 were 1229 and 44.04, respectively, while those in the year 2040 were 2056 and 62.91, respectively. The forecasted incidence showed an upward trend highlighting an urgent need to draw up strategic and holistic prevention plans to limit further the increase in P. knowlesi morbidity and mortality in Sarawak. It is imperative that these measures are customized taking into consideration the challenges faced in the interior areas of Sarawak and the behavior of the main vector of P. knowlesi (i.e., An. latens) in Sarawak.

Is nasopharyngeal cancer really a "Cantonese cancer"?

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) is endemic in Southern China, with Guandong province and Hong Kong reporting some of the highest incidences in the world. The journal Science has called it a "Cantonese cancer". We propose that in fact NPC is a cancer that originated in the Bai Yue ("proto Tai Kadai" or "proto Austronesian" or "proto Zhuang") peoples and was transmitted to the Han Chinese in southern China through intermarriage. However, the work by John Ho raised the profile of NPC, and because of the high incidence of NPC in Hong Kong and Guangzhou, NPC became known as a Cantonese cancer. We searched historical articles, articles cited in PubMed, Google, monographs, books and Internet articles relating to genetics of the peoples with high populations of NPC. The migration history of these various peoples was extensively researched, and where possible, their genetic fingerprint identified to corroborate with historical accounts. Genetic and anthropological evidence suggest there are a lot of similarities between the Bai Yue and the aboriginal peoples of Borneo and Northeast India; between Inuit of Greenland, Austronesian Mayalo Polynesians of Southeast Asia and Polynesians of Oceania, suggesting some common ancestry. Genetic studies also suggest the present Cantonese, Minnans and Hakkas are probably an admixture of northern Han and southern Bai Yue. All these populations have a high incidence of NPC. Very early contact between southern Chinese and peoples of East Africa and Arabia can also account for the intermediate incidence of NPC in these regions.