Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. CONCLUSIONS: The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Can integration reduce inequity in healthcare utilization? Evidence and hurdles in China.

BACKGROUND: Integration of medical insurance schemes has been prioritized as one of the key strategies to address inequity in China's health system. The first pilot attempt to integrate started in 2003 and later expanded nationwide. This study aims to assess its intended impact on inequity in inpatient service utilization and identify the main determinants contributing to its ineffectiveness. METHODS: A total of 49,365 respondents in the pilot integrated area and 77,165 respondents in the non-integration area were extracted from the Fifth National Health Services Survey. A comparative analysis was conducted between two types of areas. We calculate a concentration index (CI) and horizontal inequity index (HI) in inpatient service utilization and decompose the two indices. RESULTS: Insurance integration played a positive role in reducing inequality in inpatient service utilization to some extent. A 13.23% lower in HI, a decrease in unmet inpatient care and financial barriers to inpatient care in the pilot integrated area compared with the non-integration area; decomposition analysis showed that the Urban-Rural Residents Basic Medical Insurance, a type of integrated insurance, contributed 37.49% to reducing inequality in inpatient service utilization. However, it still could not offset the strong negative effect of income and other insurance schemes that have increased inequality. CONCLUSIONS: The earlier pilot attempt for integrating medical insurance was not enough to counteract the influence of factors which increased the inequality in inpatient service utilization. Further efforts to address the inequality should focus on widening access to financing, upgrading the risk pool, reducing gaps within and between insurance schemes, and providing broader chronic disease benefit packages. Social policies that target the needs of the poor with coordinated efforts from various levels and agencies of the government are urgently needed.

patient perceptions of integrated care and their relationship to utilization of emergency, inpatient and outpatient services.

BACKGROUND: Patients with multiple chronic conditions have garnered particular attention from policymakers and health service researchers because these patients utilize more services and contribute disproportionally to rising health care expenses. The growing prevalence of patients with multiple chronic conditions has increased the importance of achieving better health care integration for this patient population. Patients may be well positioned to assess integration of their care, but the relationship between patients' perceptions of care integration and use of health services has not been studied. We sought to understand how patient-perceived integrated care relates to utilization of health services. METHODS: We fielded the Patient Perceptions of Integrated Care survey among a random sample of 3000 (<65 years) patients with multiple chronic conditions belonging to the Massachusetts General Hospital Physician Organization; 1503 responses were collected (50% response rate). We assessed relationships between provider performance on 11 domains of patient-reported integrated care and rates of emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, and outpatient visits. RESULTS: Better performance on two of the surveyed dimensions of integrated care (information flow to other providers in your doctor's office and responsiveness independent of visits, p<0.05) was significantly associated with lower ED visit rates. Better performance on three dimensions of integrated care (information flow to your specialist, p<0.05, post-visit information flow to the patient, p<0.001, and continuous familiarity with patient over time, p<0.05) was associated with lower outpatient visit rates. No dimensions of integration were associated with hospital admission rates. CONCLUSIONS: In a single health system, patient perceptions of integrated care were associated with ED and outpatient utilization but not inpatient utilization. With further development, patient reports of integration could be useful guides to improving health system efficiency.