Navigating the nexus: climate dynamics and microplastics pollution in coastal ecosystems.

Microplastics (MPs) pollution is an emerging environmental health concern, impacting soil, plants, animals, and humans through their entry into the food chain via bioaccumulation. Human activities such as improper solid waste dumping are significant sources that ultimately transport MPs into the water bodies of the coastal areas. Moreover, there is a complex interplay between the coastal climate dynamics, environmental factors, the burgeoning issue of MPs pollution and the complex web of coastal pollution. We embark on a comprehensive journey, synthesizing the latest research across multiple disciplines to provide a holistic understanding of how these inter-connected factors shape and reshape the coastal ecosystems. The comprehensive review also explores the impact of the current climatic patterns on coastal regions, the intricate pathways through which MPs can infiltrate marine environments, and the cascading effects of coastal pollution on ecosystems and human societies in terms of health and socio-economic impacts in coastal regions. The novelty of this review concludes the changes in climate patterns have crucial effects on coastal regions, proceeding MPs as more prevalent, deteriorating coastal ecosystems, and hastening the transfer of MPs. The continuous rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and strong storms result in habitat loss, decline in biodiversity, and economic repercussion. Feedback mechanisms intensify pollution effects, underlying the urgent demand for environmental conservation contribution. In addition, the complex interaction between human, industry, and biodiversity demanding cutting edge strategies, innovative approaches such as remote sensing with artificial intelligence for monitoring, biobased remediation techniques, global cooperation in governance, policies to lessen the negative socioeconomic and environmental effects of coastal pollution.

Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change.

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Applying a climate-biodiversity-health framework to support integrated food systems planning and policy.

Food systems impact different aspects of sustainability and human life, such as pollution, health, climate change, biodiversity loss, water shortage, and soil infertility. However, in many places, food systems are neither resilient nor sustainable. Integrated planning approaches can help to overcome fragmented strategies and policies in ways that improve the sustainability and resilience of food systems. This study explores such an approach by applying a climate-biodiversity-health (CBH) nexus to local and regional food systems in the Comox Valley region, British Columbia, Canada. The CBH nexus is used as an analytical lens to identify systems relationships among food systems, climate change, biodiversity and health issues and strategies in the region. The employs a place-based approach entailing semi-structured interviews with provincial, regional, and local stakeholders in order to develop a holistic understanding of planning challenges, strategies and their outcomes through the CBH lens. Outcomes of this work include a system map that can be used as a framework for elucidating how various strategies align or conflict with different CBH imperatives and can be used to support integrated community sustainability planning and policy-making efforts. The framework is developed within the Comox Valley context, but it can be adapted to other communities. This paper details the development of this framework, the interconnections between different components, and how this framework can be adopted in other communities.

Climate change and health: The case of mapping droughts and migration pattern in Iran (2011-2016).

INTRODUCTION: Migration and mobility of population have been reported as a common reaction to drought. There is historical evidence to suggest the health effects of droughts and human migration linkage in Iran. This study aimed to map the drought and migration patterns in Iran in 2011 and 2016 and explore their possible health impacts. METHODS: This sequential explanatory mixed-method study was done in two stages of spatial analysis and qualitative study. Data mapping was conducted through the equal interval classification and using drought, migration, and agriculture occupation data based on provincial divisions in Iran in 2011 and 2016. This qualitative study was conducted using the content analysis approach. RESULTS: The in-migration rate was higher in 2011 rather than 2016. Migration to cities was much higher than migration to villages in both years. The frequency of male migrants was higher than females in all provinces in 2011 and 2016. Physical and mental diseases as well as economic, sociocultural, education, and environment effects on health were extracted from the qualitative data. CONCLUSION: A holistic picture of droughts and migration issues in Iran and their health consequences were achieved by the present research. Further research is needed to explore the determinants of health impacts of climate change in vulnerable groups. Public health problems can be prevented by adaptive and preventive policy-making and planning. This can improve the coping capacity of the population facing droughts and enforced migration.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Dependence of evolution of Cyanobacteria superiority on temperature and nutrient use efficiency in a meso-eutrophic plateau lake.

Algal blooms in lakes have been a challenging environmental issue globally under the dual influence of human activity and climate change. Considerable progress has been made in the study of phytoplankton dynamics in lakes; The long-term in situ evolution of dominant bloom-forming cyanobacteria in meso-eutrophic plateau lakes, however, lacks systematic research. Here, the monthly parameters from 12 sampling sites during the period of 1997-2022 were utilized to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving the superiority of bloom-forming cyanobacteria in Erhai, a representative meso-eutrophic plateau lake. The findings indicate that global warming will intensify the risk of cynaobacteria blooms, prolong Microcystis blooms in autumn to winter or even into the following year, and increase the superiority of filamentous Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum in summer and autumn. High RUETN (1.52 Biomass/TN, 0.95-3.04 times higher than other species) under N limitation (TN < 0.5 mg/L, TN/TP < 22.6) in the meso-eutrophic Lake Erhai facilitates the superiority of Dolichospermum. High RUETP (43.8 Biomass/TP, 2.1-10.2 times higher than others) in TP of 0.03-0.05 mg/L promotes the superiority of Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum. We provided a novel insight into the formation of Planktothrix and Cylindrospermum superiority in meso-eutrophic plateau lake with low TP (0.005-0.07 mg/L), which is mainly influenced by warming, high RUETP and their vertical migration characteristics. Therefore, we posit that although the obvious improvement of lake water quality is not directly proportional to the control efficacy of cyanobacterial blooms, the evolutionary shift in cyanobacteria population structure from Microcystis, which thrives under high nitrogen and phosphorus conditions, to filamentous cyanobacteria adapted to low nitrogen and phosphorus levels may serve as a significant indicator of water quality amelioration. Therefore, we suggest that the risk of filamentous cyanobacteria blooms in the meso-eutrophic plateau lake should be given attention, particularly in light of improving water quality and global warming, to ensure drinking water safety.

Mental health, subjective experiences and environmental change.

This article responds to Coope's call for the medical humanities to address the climate crisis as a health issue. Coope proposes three areas for progress towards ecological thinking in healthcare, with a focus on ecological mental health. The article emphasises the need to understand the cultural dimensions of mental health and proposes an interdisciplinary approach that integrates insights from the arts and humanities. It examines the impact of climate change on mental health, drawing on The Rockefeller Foundation - Lancet Commission on Planetary Health and recent studies. The discussion focuses on the intersection of mental health, subjective experience and environmental change. Focusing on emotional experiences as constructed from biological and cultural elements, the article proposes a holistic approach to mental health. It proposes two converging lines of research, in constant interaction: first, a historical and cultural research of those concepts, practices and symbols related to the environment, emphasising a cultural history of nature; and second, a synchronous research, drawing on anthropology, sociology and participatory art-based research, to understand how these aforementioned elements influence our current relations with nature. The article concludes by emphasising the urgency of developing narratives and histories that redirect temporal trajectories towards a better future, while respecting and acknowledging diverse narratives of individual experience. It calls for collaborative efforts from the medical humanities to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship between mental health, nature and ecological crisis.

Assessing scale-dependency of climate risks in coffee-based agroforestry systems.

Agroforestry is a management strategy for mitigating the negative impacts of climate and adapting to sustainable farming systems. The successful implementation of agroforestry strategies requires that climate risks are appropriately assessed. The spatial scale, a critical determinant influencing climate impact assessments and, subsequently, agroforestry strategies, has been an overlooked dimension in the literature. In this study, climate risk impacts on robusta coffee production were investigated at different spatial scales in coffee-based agroforestry systems across India. Data from 314 coffee farms distributed across the districts of Chikmagalur and Coorg (Karnataka state) and Wayanad (Kerala state) were collected during the 2015/2016 to 2017/2018 coffee seasons and were used to quantify the key climate drivers of coffee yield. Projected climate data for two scenarios of change in global climate corresponding to (1) current baseline conditions (1985-2015) and (2) global mean temperatures 2 °C above preindustrial levels were then used to assess impacts on robusta coffee yield. Results indicated that at the district scale rainfall variability predominantly constrained coffee productivity, while at a broader regional scale, maximum temperature was the most important factor. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario relative to the baseline (1985-2015) climatic conditions, the changes in coffee yield exhibited spatial-scale dependent disparities. Whilst modest increases in yield (up to 5%) were projected from district-scale models, at the regional scale, reductions in coffee yield by 10-20% on average were found. These divergent impacts of climate risks underscore the imperative for coffee-based agroforestry systems to develop strategies that operate effectively at various scales to ensure better resilience to the changing climate.

Microbial phosphorus-cycling genes in soil under global change.

The ongoing climate change on the Tibetan Plateau, leading to warming and precipitation anomalies, modifies phosphorus (P) cycling in alpine meadow soils. However, the interactions and cascading effects of warming and precipitation changes on the key "extracellular" and "intracellular" P cycling genes (PCGs) of bacteria are largely unknown for these P-limited ecosystems. We used metagenomics to analyze the individual and combined effects of warming and altered precipitation on soil PCGs and P transformation in a manipulation experiment. Warming and increased precipitation raised Olsen-P (bioavailable P, AP) by 13% and 20%, respectively, mainly caused by augmented hydrolysis of organic P compounds (NaOH-Po). The decreased precipitation reduced soil AP by 5.3%. The richness and abundance of the PCGs' community in soils on the cold Tibetan plateau were more sensitive to warming than altered precipitation. The abundance of PCGs and P cycling processes decreased under the influence of individual climate change factors (i.e., warming and altered precipitation alone), except for the warming combined with increased precipitation. Pyruvate metabolism, phosphotransferase system, oxidative phosphorylation, and purine metabolism (all "intracellular" PCG) were closely correlated with P pools under climate change conditions. Specifically, warming recruited bacteria with the phoD and phoX genes, which encode enzymes responsible for phosphoester hydrolysis (extracellular P cycling), strongly accelerated organic P mineralization and so, directly impacted P bioavailability in alpine soil. The interactions between warming and altered precipitation profoundly influenced the PCGs' community and facilitated microbial adaptation to these environmental changes. Warming combined with increased precipitation compensated for the detrimental impacts of the individual climate change factors on PCGs. In conclusion, warming combined with rising precipitation has boosting effect on most P-related functions, leading to the acceleration of P cycling within microbial cells and extracellularly, including mineralization and more available P release for microorganisms and plants in alpine soils.

Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River (Italy): Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus.

Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution, but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change, and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still unexplored. The Po River basin (northern Italy) is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in Europe. It remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal areas. The present work addresses the long-term trends (1992-2020) of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge trajectories. Despite the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin, a marked decrease (-20%) in nitrogen export, mostly as nitrate, was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990s, while no significant downward trend was observed for phosphorus. The water temperature of the Po River has warmed, with the most pronounced signals in summer (+0.13°C/year) and autumn (+0.16°C/year), together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days (+70%-80%). An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification, resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the sea. The present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism, thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn, when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.

Environmental Interventions for Preventing Atopic Diseases.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we detail the exposome (consisting of environmental factors such as diet, microbial colonization, allergens, pollutants, and stressors), mechanistic and clinical research supporting its influence on atopic disease, and potentiation from climate change. We highlight contemporary environmental interventions and available evidence substantiating their roles in atopic disease prevention, from observational cohorts to randomized controlled trials, when available. RECENT FINDINGS: Early introduction to allergenic foods is an effective primary prevention strategy to reduce food allergy. Diverse dietary intake also appears to be a promising strategy for allergic disease prevention, but additional study is necessary. Air pollution and tobacco smoke are highly associated with allergic disease, among other medical comorbidities, paving the way for campaigns and legislation to reduce these exposures. There is no clear evidence that oral vitamin D supplementation, prebiotic or probiotic supplementation, daily emollient application, and antiviral prophylaxis are effective in preventing atopic disease, but these interventions require further study. While some environmental interventions have a well-defined role in the prevention of atopic disease, additional study of many remaining interventions is necessary to enhance our understanding of their role in disease prevention. Alignment of research findings from randomized controlled trials with public policy is essential to develop meaningful public health outcomes and prevent allergic disease on the population level.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change.

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Understanding the role of biodiversity in the climate, food, water, energy, transport and health nexus in Europe.

Biodiversity underpins the functioning of ecosystems and the diverse benefits that nature provides to people, yet is being lost at an unprecedented rate. To halt or reverse biodiversity loss, it is critical to understand the complex interdependencies between biodiversity and key drivers and sectors to inform the development of holistic policies and actions. We conducted a literature review on the interlinkages between biodiversity and climate change, food, water, energy, transport and health ("the biodiversity nexus"). Evidence extracted from 194 peer-reviewed articles was analysed to assess how biodiversity is being influenced by and is influencing the other nexus elements. Out of the 354 interlinkages between biodiversity and the other nexus elements, 53 % were negative, 29 % were positive and 18 % contained both positive and negative influences. The majority of studies provide evidence of the negative influence of other nexus elements on biodiversity, highlighting the substantial damage being inflicted on nature from human activities. The main types of negative impacts were land or water use/change, land or water degradation, climate change, and direct species fatalities through collisions with infrastructure. Alternatively, evidence of biodiversity having a negative influence on the other nexus elements was limited to the effects of invasive alien species and vector-borne diseases. Furthermore, a range of studies provided evidence of how biodiversity and the other nexus elements can have positive influences on each other through practices that promote co-benefits. These included biodiversity-friendly management in relevant sectors, protection and restoration of ecosystems and species that provide essential ecosystem services, green and blue infrastructure including nature-based solutions, and sustainable and healthy diets that mitigate climate change. The review highlighted the complexity and context-dependency of interlinkages within the biodiversity nexus, but clearly demonstrates the importance of biodiversity in underpinning resilient ecosystems and human well-being in ensuring a sustainable future for people and the planet.

Understanding the interplay of occupational, public health, and climate-related risks for informal workers: A new framework with findings from Zimbabwe and India.

Globally, there are 2 billion 'informal' workers, who lack access to social protection while facing profound health risks and socioeconomic exclusions. The informal economy has generated most jobs in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), but few studies have explored informal workers' complex health vulnerabilities, including in the face of climate change. This paper will discuss recent action-research in Indore (India), Harare, and Masvingo (Zimbabwe) with informal workers like vendors, waste-pickers, and urban farmers. We conducted qualitative interviews (N = 110 in India), focus group discussions (N = 207 in Zimbabwe), and a quantitative survey (N = 418 in Zimbabwe). Many informal workers live in informal settlements ('slums'), and we highlight the interrelated health risks at their homes and workplaces. We explore how climate-related threats-including heatwaves, drought, and floods-negatively affect informal workers' health and livelihoods. These challenges often have gender-inequitable impacts. We also analyse workers' individual and collective responses. We propose a comprehensive framework to reveal the drivers of health in the informal economy, and we complement this holistic approach with a new research agenda. Our framework highlights the socioeconomic, environmental, and political determinants of informal workers' health. We argue that informal workers may face difficult trade-offs, due to competing priorities in the face of climate change and other risks. Future interventions will need to recognise informal workers' array of risks and co-develop multifaceted solutions, thereby helping to avoid such impossible choices. We recommend holistic initiatives to foster health and climate resilience, as well as participatory action-research partnerships and qualitative, intersectional data-collection with informal workers.

A scoping review of human health co-benefits of forest-based climate change mitigation in Europe.

Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation.

Carbon reduction attention and financial market stress: A network spillover analysis based on quantile VAR modeling.

As climate change intensifies, attention to the issue of carbon emission reduction has gradually increased. This research constructs a complete set of indicators of carbon reduction attention and financial market stress and applies the quantile VAR method to calculate the volatility spillover between carbon reduction attention and financial market stress. We conclude with the following. Firstly, a relatively close volatility spillover association exists between carbon reduction attention and financial market stress. In the research system, carbon reduction attention mainly assumes the role of information receiver. Additionally, when examining the spillover status in different quantiles, the total spillover level shows an irregular "bowl" structure, while the net spillover level of each variable has different shapes. Secondly, the dynamic spillover level in the extreme quantile condition maintains a connectivity range of 60-80%, significantly higher than that of the median condition. Finally, this study finds two sets of significant complementary spillovers within the system, namely, "carbon reduction attention - crude oil market stress" and "stock market stress - real estate market stress", which provide investors with an opportunity to explore the potential of the carbon reduction attention and real estate market stress in the future.

Climate change intensifies algal biomass resurgence in eutrophic Lake Taihu, China.

Climate change can significantly alter phytoplankton growth and proliferation, which would counteract restoration efforts to control algal blooms. However, the knowledge is limited about the quantitative evaluation of the causal effect of algal biomass resurgence in large shallow lakes where there is no significant improvement after long term lake restoration. Here, a bucket process-based phytoplankton dynamic model is developed to quantify the contributions of climate change and nutrients concentration changes to phytoplankton biomass resurgence after 2014 in hypereutrophic Lake Taihu, China. Compared to 2008-2014, the mean water temperature (WT) and the mean phosphate are higher, the mean photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the mean total suspended solids (TSS), and the mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) are lower, during 2015-2020. Their contribution to algal biomass resurgence during 2015-2020 is WT (+58.7 %), PAR (-2.6 %), TSS (+23.2 %), DIN (-22.1 %) and phosphate (+42.7 %), respectively. Climate change (WT, PAR, and TSS), which contributed +64.9 % to the phytoplankton biomass resurgence, underscores the urgent need to continuously take more effective measures to reduce nutrient emissions to offset the effects of climate change in Lake Taihu and in other eutrophic lakes.

Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate.

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.

Impact of climate change on the future distribution of three Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model.

The decline of habitats supporting medicinal plants is a consequence of climate change and human activities. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, Ferulago carduchorum, and Ferulago phialocarpa are widely recognized for their culinary, medicinal, and economic value. Therefore, this study models these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the most important bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables influencing their distribution and predict changes under various climate scenarios. Findings reveal slope percentage as the most significant variable for F. angulata and F. carduchorum, while solar radiation was the primary variable for F. phialocarpa. MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve values exceeding 0.85. Projections suggest negative area changes for F. angulata and F. carduchorum (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 indicate -34.0% and -37.8% for F. phialocarpa, and -0.3% and -6.2% for F. carduchorum; additionally, predictions under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 show -39.0% and -52.2% for F. phialocarpa, and -1.33% and -9.8% for F. carduchorum), while for F. phialocarpa, a potential habitat increase (i.e., predictions under RCP4.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 23.4% and 11.2%, and under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070 are 64.4% and 42.1%) is anticipated. These insights guide adaptive management strategies, emphasizing conservation and sustainable use amid global climate change. Special attention should be paid to F. angulata and F. carduchorum due to anticipated habitat loss. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1046-1059. © 2024 SETAC.

Adverse human health effects of climate change: an update.

Background: The world is currently facing a process of climate change, which may adversely impact human health in many different ways. The safety of food, water and urban environments is endangered by the consequences of climate change. Sea level and temperature rise, along with more frequent and longer heat waves, represent only a few of the effects of climate change. The increased risk of extreme climate events (e.g., cyclones, droughts and floods) is another serious public health issue. These adverse effects are enhanced in areas and countries not having the capacity to effectively deal with climate change. Study design: We primarily aimed at summarizing the impacts of climate change on public health. A further aim was to identify the most concerning consequences of this phenomenon and the vulnerability factors that amplify the negative effects of climate change. Methods: PubMed and other literature databases were used as literature sources for this narrative review based on the search terms 'climate change' and 'diseases categories' up to January 2024, in order to assess the most recent and relevant scientific evidence about the relation between climate change and public health, identify knowledge gaps and priorities for future research. We also screened the websites of major agencies devoted to human health protection and environmental health. Results and Conclusions: Climate change appears to induce a broad spectrum of generally adverse effects on public health. It may increase the risk of infectious diseases, psychiatric disorders, cancer and other diseases. Currently, we are not effectively counteracting this phenomenon, since pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing alongside temperatures. A host of measures are required in order to prevent and fight climate change and related health effects. These include the adoption of a holistic approach and the collaboration of different kinds of expertise in order to design more effective strategies. Special attention should be paid to those who live in disadvantaged countries, and those who are more vulnerable to the adverse health consequences of climate change.