RESUMEN
Background: Estimating the growth rate of lung metastases for the treatment of patients with metastases of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is important. This study aimed to evaluate survival outcomes according to different criteria for estimating the growth rate of lung metastases. Methods: Patients with macronodular (≥1 cm) lung metastases of DTC who underwent total thyroidectomy and high-dose radioactive iodine therapy between 1995 and 2013 were enrolled. The time to progressive disease (PD) by the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), average tumor volume doubling time of the two dominant target lung lesions (midDT), and thyroglobulin doubling time (TgDT) were measured in each patient, and their association with disease-specific survival (DSS) was evaluated. Results: Forty-four patients with target lung metastatic nodules with an initial maximal diameter of 1.3 cm (median) were followed-up for a median of 6.8 years after the diagnosis of lung metastases. Based on RECIST, 12 patients (27.3%) showed fast tumor progression, with time to PD <1 year. When assessed by midDT, nine patients (20.5%) had midDT ≤1 year, showing rapid tumor progression. Seven of 33 patients (21.2%) who were negative for thyroglobulin antibody had midDT <1 year. Growth rates assessed by all three criteria were significantly associated with DSS. However, midDT had the highest predictive value for DSS, with a proportion of variation explained of 33.6%. Five-year DSS was 29.6% in patients with midDT ≤1 year, 50.0% in patients with time to PD <1 year, and 42.9% in patients with TgDT <1 year. Conclusions: Among the different criteria for estimating the growth rate of metastases in patients with lung metastases of DTC, midDT was the most powerful for predicting DSS, in comparison with RECIST and TgDT. Performing at least three serial chest computed tomography scans during the first year from the diagnosis of lung metastases can facilitate early detection of patients with rapid tumor progression and provide objective guidance for initiation of systemic therapy.