Predicting Length of Stay and the Need for Postacute Care After Acute Myocardial Infarction to Improve Healthcare Efficiency.

Background To improve value in the care of patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI), payment models increasingly hold providers accountable for costs. As such, providers need tools to predict length of stay (LOS) during hospitalization and the likelihood of needing postacute care facilities after discharge for acute MI patients. We developed models to estimate risk for prolonged LOS and postacute care for acute MI patients at time of hospital admission to facilitate coordinated care planning. Methods and Results We identified patients in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry ACTION registry (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network) who were discharged alive after hospitalization for acute MI between July 1, 2008 and March 31, 2017. Within a 70% random sample (Training cohort) we developed hierarchical, proportional odds models to predict LOS and hierarchical logistic regression models to predict discharge to postacute care. Models were validated in the remaining 30%. Of 633 737 patients in the Training cohort, 16.8% had a prolonged LOS (≥7 days) and 7.8% were discharged to a postacute facility (extended care, a transitional care unit, or rehabilitation). Model discrimination was moderate in the validation dataset for predicting LOS (C statistic=0.640) and strong for predicting discharge to postacute care (C statistic=0.827). For both models, discrimination was similar in ST-segment-elevation MI and non-ST-segment-elevation MI subgroups and calibration was excellent. Conclusions These models developed in a national registry can be used at the time of initial hospitalization to predict LOS and discharge to postacute facilities. Prospective testing of these models is needed to establish how they can improve care coordination and lower costs.

Relation between red blood cell omega-3 fatty acid index and bleeding during acute myocardial infarction.

Omega-3 fatty acids have multiple cardiovascular benefits but may also inhibit platelet aggregation and increase bleeding risk. If this platelet inhibition is clinically meaningful, patients with the highest omega-3 indexes (red blood cell eicosapentaenoic acid plus docosahexaenoic acid), which reflect long-term omega-3 fatty acid intake, should be at the risk for bleeding. In this study, 1,523 patients from 24 United States centers who had their omega-3 indexes assessed at the time of acute myocardial infarction were studied. The rates of serious bleeding (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] major or minor) and mild to moderate bleeding (TIMI minimal) were identified in patients with low (<4%), intermediate (4% to 8%), and high (>8%) omega-3 indices. There were no differences in bleeding across omega-3 index categories. After multivariate adjustment, there remained no association between the omega-3 index and either serious (per 2% increase, relative risk 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.19) or mild to moderate bleeding (per 2% increase, relative risk 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.23). In conclusion, no relation was found between the omega-3 index and bleeding in this large, multicenter cohort of patients with acute myocardial infarction, suggesting that concerns about bleeding should not preclude the use of omega-3 supplements or increased fish consumption when clinically indicated.

Clinical and economic outcomes of liberal versus selective drug-eluting stent use: insights from temporal analysis of the multicenter Evaluation of Drug Eluting Stents and Ischemic Events (EVENT) registry.

BACKGROUND: Although the benefits of drug-eluting stents (DES) for reducing restenosis after percutaneous coronary intervention are well established, the impact of alternative rates of DES use on population-level outcomes is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from the Evaluation of Drug Eluting Stents and Ischemic Events (EVENT) registry to examine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of varying DES use rates in routine care. Between 2004 and 2007, 10,144 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled in the EVENT registry at 55 US centers. Clinical outcomes and cardiovascular-specific costs were assessed prospectively over 1 year of follow-up. Use of DES decreased from 92 in 2004 to 2006 (liberal use era; n=7587) to 68 in 2007 (selective use era; n=2557; P<0.001). One-year rates of death or myocardial infarction were similar in both eras. Over this time period, the incidence of target lesion revascularization increased from 4.1 to 5.1, an absolute increase of 1.0 (95 confidence interval, 0.1 to 1.9; P=0.03), whereas total cardiovascular costs per patient decreased by $401 (95 confidence interval, 131 to 671; P=0.004). The risk-adjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the liberal versus selective DES era was $16,000 per target lesion revascularization event avoided, $27,000 per repeat revascularization avoided, and $433 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective registry, a temporal reduction in DES use was associated with a small increase in target lesion revascularization and a modest reduction in total cardiovascular costs. These findings suggest that although clinical outcomes are marginally better with unrestricted DES use, this approach represents a relatively inefficient use of healthcare resources relative to several common benchmarks for cost-effective care.

Predictors of omega-3 index in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the patient and dietary characteristics associated with low omega-3 levels in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and determine whether these characteristics are useful to identify patients who may benefit from omega-3 testing and treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Dietary habits of 1487 patients in the 24-center Translational Research Investigating Underlying disparities in acute Myocardial infarction Patients' Health status (TRIUMPH) registry between April 11, 2005, and September 28, 2007, were assessed by asking about the frequency of fast food and nonfried fish consumption. All patients had erythrocyte omega-3 index measured at the time of hospital admission for AMI. We used multivariable linear regression to identify independent correlates of the omega-3 index and modified Poisson regression to predict risk of a low omega-3 index (<4%). RESULTS: The proportion of patients with a low omega-3 index increased with more frequent fast food intake (18.9% for <1 time monthly, 28.6% for 1-3 times monthly, 28.8% for 1-2 times weekly, and 37.6% for ≥ 3 times weekly; P<.001). In contrast, a low omega-3 index was less common among patients with more frequent fish intake (35.1% for <1 time monthly, 24.9% for 1-3 times monthly, 16.1% for 1-2 times weekly, and 21.1% for ≥ 3 times weekly; P<.001). Fish intake, older age, race other than white, and omega-3 supplementation were independently associated with a higher omega-3 index, whereas frequent fast food intake, smoking, and diabetes mellitus were associated with a lower omega-3 index. CONCLUSION: Potentially modifiable factors, such as patient-reported fast food intake, fish intake, and smoking, are independently associated with the omega-3 index in patients with AMI. These characteristics may be useful to identify patients who would benefit most from omega-3 supplementation and lifestyle modification.