Risk model-based management for second primary lung cancer among lung cancer survivors through a validated risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Recent therapeutic advances and screening technologies have improved survival among patients with lung cancer, who are now at high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model (called SPLC-RAT) was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT was evaluated in a hospital-based cohort of lung cancer survivors. METHODS: The authors analyzed data from 8448 ever-smoking patients diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1997-2006 at Mayo Clinic, with each patient followed for SPLC through 2018. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT and further explored the potential of improving SPLC detection through risk model-based surveillance using SPLC-RAT versus existing clinical surveillance guidelines. RESULTS: Of 8448 IPLC patients, 483 (5.7%) developed SPLC over 26,470 person-years. The application of SPLC-RAT showed high discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.81). When the cohort was stratified by a 10-year risk threshold of ≥5.6% (i.e., 80th percentile from the SPLC-RAT development cohort), the observed SPLC incidence was significantly elevated in the high-risk versus low-risk subgroup (13.1% vs. 1.1%, p < 1 × 10-6 ). The risk-based surveillance through SPLC-RAT (≥5.6% threshold) outperformed the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines with higher sensitivity (86.4% vs. 79.4%) and specificity (38.9% vs. 30.4%) and required 20% fewer computed tomography follow-ups needed to detect one SPLC (162 vs. 202). CONCLUSION: In a large, hospital-based cohort, the authors validated the predictive performance of SPLC-RAT in identifying high-risk survivors of SPLC and showed its potential to improve SPLC detection through risk-based surveillance. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Lung cancer survivors have a high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, no evidence-based guidelines for SPLC surveillance are available for lung cancer survivors. Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. Using a large, real-world cohort of lung cancer survivors, we showed the high predictive accuracy and risk-stratification ability of the SPLC risk-prediction model. Furthermore, we demonstrated the potential to enhance efficiency in detecting SPLC using risk model-based surveillance strategies compared to the existing consensus-based clinical guidelines, including the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Predictors of imaging surveillance for surgically treated early-stage lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend routine imaging surveillance for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after treatment. Little is known about surveillance patterns for patients with surgically resected early-stage lung cancer in the community at large. We sought to characterize surveillance patterns in a national cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER)-Medicare database (1995-2010). Patients with stage I/II NSCLC treated with surgical resection were included. Our primary outcome was receipt of imaging between 4 and 8 months after the surgical procedure. Covariates included demographics and comorbidities. RESULTS: Chest radiography (CXR) was the most frequent initial modality (60%), followed by chest computed tomography (CT) (25%). Positron emission tomography (PET) was least frequent as an initial imaging modality (3%). A total of 13% of patients received no imaging within the initial surveillance period. Adherence to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines for imaging by overall prevalence was 47% for receipt of CT; however, rates of CT increased over time from 28% to 61% (p < 0.01). Reduced rates of CT were associated with stage I disease and surgical resection as the sole treatment modality. CONCLUSIONS: Imaging after definitive surgical treatment for NSCLC predominantly used CXR rather than CT. Most of this imaging is likely for surveillance, and in that context CXR has inferior detection rates for recurrence and new cancers. Adherence to guideline-recommended CT surveillance after surgical treatment is poor, but the reasons are multifactorial. Efforts to improve adherence to imaging surveillance must be coupled with greater evidence demonstrating improved long-term outcomes.

Appropriateness of imaging for lung cancer staging in a national cohort.

PURPOSE: Optimizing evidence-based care to improve quality is a critical priority in the United States. We sought to examine adherence to imaging guideline recommendations for staging in patients with locally advanced lung cancer in a national cohort. METHODS: We identified 3,808 patients with stage IIB, IIIA, or IIIB lung cancer by using the national Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Central Cancer Registry (2004-2007) and linked these patients to VA and Medicare databases to examine receipt of guideline-recommended imaging based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network and American College of Radiology Appropriateness Criteria. Our primary outcomes were receipt of guideline-recommended brain imaging and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging. We also examined rates of overuse defined as combined use of bone scintigraphy (BS) and PET, which current guidelines recommend against. All imaging was assessed during the period 180 days before and 180 days after diagnosis. RESULTS: Nearly 75% of patients received recommended brain imaging, and 60% received recommended PET imaging. Overuse of BS and PET occurred in 25% of patients. More advanced clinical stage and later year of diagnosis were the only clinical or demographic factors associated with higher rates of guideline-recommended imaging after adjusting for covariates. We observed considerable regional variation in recommended PET imaging and overuse of combined BS and PET. CONCLUSION: Receipt of guideline-recommended imaging is not universal. PET appears to be underused overall, whereas BS demonstrates continued overuse. Wide regional variation suggests that these findings could be the result of local practice patterns, which may be amenable to provider education efforts such as Choosing Wisely.