External nutrient loading from land, sea and atmosphere to all 656 Swedish coastal water bodies.

Identifying the main sources of nutrient loading is a key factor for efficient mitigation of eutrophication. This study has investigated the pathways of external nutrient loading to 656 coastal water bodies along the entire Swedish coastline. The studied water bodies have been delineated to meet requirements in the European Union's Water Framework Directive, and recent status assessments have shown that 57% of them fail to attain good or high ecological status with respect to nutrients. The analysis in the study was performed on data from mass-balance based nutrient budgets computed using the modelling framework Vattenwebb. The external nutrient contribution from the sea to the water bodies was highly variable, ranging from about 1% to nearly 100%, but the median contribution was >99% of the total external loading regarding both nitrogen and phosphorus. External loading from the atmosphere and local catchment area played a minor role in general. However, 45 coastal water bodies received >25% of the external nitrogen and phosphorus from their catchments. Loading from land typically peaked in April following ice-break and snow melting and was comparatively low during summer. The results indicate that for many eutrophicated Swedish coastal water bodies, nutrient abatement is likely to be optimally effective when potential measures in all of the catchment area of the concerned sea basin are considered. Local-scale mitigation in single water bodies will likely be locally effective only in the small proportion of areas where water and thereby also nutrient input from the catchment is high compared to the influx from the sea. Future studies should include nutrient reduction scenarios in order to refine these conclusions and to identify relevant spatial scales for coastal eutrophication mitigation measures from a water body perspective.

Sustainable phosphorus loadings from effective and cost-effective phosphorus management around the Baltic Sea.

Nutrient over-enrichment of the Baltic Sea, accompanied by intensified algal blooms and decreasing water clarity, has aroused widespread concern in the surrounding countries during the last four decades. This work has used a well-tested dynamic mass-balance model to investigate which decrease in total phosphorus loading would be required to meet the environmental goal to restore the trophic state in the Baltic Sea to pre-1960s levels. Furthermore, the extent to which various abatement options may decrease the phosphorus loading in a cost-effective manner has been studied. Upgrading urban sewage treatment in the catchment could, alone or in combination with banning phosphates in detergents, be sufficient to meet the set environmental goal, at an estimated annual basin-wide cost of 0.21-0.43 billion euro. Such a plan would potentially decrease the total phosphorus loading to the Baltic Sea with 6,650-10,200 tons per year.

Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark.

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5 per thousand, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2%.

On the issue of limiting nutrient and predictions of cyanobacteria in aquatic systems.

This study aims at bridging the gap between freshwater and marine eutrophication studies by presenting (1) a cross-system analysis of the relationship between chlorophyll and the total nitrogen (TN) to total phosphorus (TP) ratio (2) a general model to predict concentrations of cyanobacteria from data on TP, the TN/TP ratio, salinity and temperature, and (3) a general trophic level classification for aquatic systems based on chlorophyll classes (for oligo-, meso-, eu- and hypertrophic systems). The data compiled in this study concerns more than 500 lakes and coastal areas covering a very wide domain in terms of nutrient concentrations and salinity. There was no simple relationship between the TN/TP ratio and empirical chlorophyll concentrations or concentrations of cyanobacteria. Variations in TP rather than TN generally seem to be more important to predict variations among systems in chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria. Different "bioavailable" forms of the nutrients (DIN, DIP, phosphate, nitrate, etc.) have been shown to have very high coefficients of variation (CV), which means that many samples are needed to obtain reliable empirical data which are necessary in models aiming for high predictive power and practical usefulness.