Forecasting the effectiveness of the DeWorm3 trial in interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths in three study sites in Benin, India and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The DeWorm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) through mass drug administration (MDA) using study sites in India, Malawi and Benin. In this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of infection to below 2%. METHODS: Our approach is first to define the local patterns of transmission within each study site, which is achieved by statistical inference of key epidemiological parameters using the baseline epidemiological measures of age-related prevalence and intensity of STH infection which have been collected by the DeWorm3 trials team. We use these inferred parameters to calibrate an individual-based stochastic simulation of the trial at the cluster and study site level, which is subsequently run to forecast the future prevalence of STH infections. The simulator takes into account both the uncertainties in parameter estimation and the variability inherent in epidemiological and demographic processes in the simulator. We interpret the forecast results from our simulation with reference to the stated goal of the DeWorm3 trial, to achieve a target of [Formula: see text] prevalence at a point 24 months post-cessation of MDA. RESULTS: Simulated output predicts that the two arms will be distinguishable from each other in all three country sites at the study end point. In India and Malawi, measured prevalence in the intervention arm is below the threshold with a high probability (90% and 95%, respectively), but in Benin the heterogeneity between clusters prevents the arm prevalence from being reduced below the threshold value. At the level of individual study arms within each site, heterogeneity among clusters leads to a very low probability of achieving complete elimination in an intervention arm, yielding a post-study scenario with widespread elimination but a few 'hot spot' areas of persisting STH transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that geographical heterogeneities in transmission intensity and worm aggregation have a large impact on the effect of MDA. It is important to accurately assess cluster-level, or even smaller scale, heterogeneities in factors which influence transmission and aggregation for a clearer perspective on projecting the outcomes of MDA control of STH and other neglected tropical diseases.

High Iron Levels Are Associated with Increased Malaria Risk in Infants during the First Year of Life in Benin.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 40% of children in low-income countries are anemic. Therefore, iron supplements are recommended by WHO in areas with high anemia rates. However, some studies have set into question the benefits of iron supplementation in malaria-endemic regions. In Benin, a west African country with high prevalence of anemia and malaria, no iron supplements are given systematically to infants so far despite the WHO recommendations. In this context, we wanted to investigate the effect of iron levels during the first year of life on malarial risk in Benin considering complementary risk factors. We followed 400 women and their offspring between January 2010 and June 2012 in Allada (Benin). Environmental, obstetric, and numerous clinical, maternal, and infant risk factors were considered. In multilevel models, high iron levels were significantly associated with the risk of a positive blood smear (adjusted odds ratio = 2.90, P < 0.001) and Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia (beta estimate = 0.38, P < 0.001). Infants with iron levels in the lowest quartile were less likely to have a positive blood smear (P < 0.001), and the risk increased with higher iron levels. Our results appeal for additional evaluation of the effect of different doses of iron supplements on the infant health status, including malaria incidence. Thus, the health status of infants should be compared between cohorts where iron is given either for prevention or anemia treatment, to better understand the effect of iron supplements on infant health.

Does Iron Increase the Risk of Malaria in Pregnancy?

Background. Pregnancy-associated malaria (PAM) remains a significant health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Cross-sectional studies report that iron might be associated with increased malaria morbidity, raising fears that current iron supplementation policies will cause harm in the present context of increasing resistance against intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp). Therefore, it is necessary to assess the relation of iron levels with malaria risk during the entire pregnancy. Methods. To investigate the association of maternal iron levels on malaria risk in the context of an IPTp clinical trial, 1005 human immunodeficiency virus-negative, pregnant Beninese women were monitored throughout their pregnancy between January 2010 and May 2011. Multilevel models with random intercept at the individual levels and random slope for gestational age were used to analyze the factors associated with increased risk of a positive blood smear and increased Plasmodium falciparum density. Results. During the follow-up, 29% of the women had at least 1 episode of malaria. On average, women had 0.52 positive smears (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.60). High iron levels (measured by the log10 of ferritin corrected on inflammation) were significantly associated with increased risk of a positive blood smear (adjusted odds ratio = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.46-2.11; P < .001) and high P falciparum density (beta estimate = 0.22; 95% CI, 0.18-0.27; P < .001) during the follow-up period adjusted on pregnancy parameters, comorbidities, environmental and socioeconomic indicators, and IPTp regime. Furthermore, iron-deficient women were significantly less likely to have a positive blood smear and high P falciparum density (P < .001 in both cases). Conclusions. Iron levels were positively associated with increased PAM during pregnancy in the context of IPTp. Supplementary interventional studies are needed to determine the benefits and risks of differently dosed iron and folate supplements in malaria-endemic regions.