Analysing the policy space for the promotion of healthy, sustainable edible oil consumption in India.

OBJECTIVE: To identify opportunities and challenges for the promotion of healthy, sustainable oil consumption in India. DESIGN: We use a framework for policy space analysis which distinguishes between policy context, process and characteristics. SETTING: We focus on the Indian edible oils sector and on factors shaping the policy space at a national level. PARTICIPANTS: The study is based on the analysis of policy documents and semi-structured interviews with key experts and stakeholders in the edible oils sector. RESULTS: We find opportunities associated with the emergence of multisectoral policy frameworks for climate adaptation and non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention at a national level which explicitly include the oils sector, the existence of structures for sectoral policy coordination, some supportive factors for the translation of nutrition evidence into practice, and the possibility of integrating nutrition-sensitive approaches within current state-led agricultural interventions. However, the trade-offs perceived across sustainability, NCD prevention and food security objectives in the vegetable oils sector are considered a barrier for policy influence and implementation. Sustainability and nutrition advocates tend to focus on different segments of the value chain, missing potential synergies. Moreover, policy priorities are dominated by historical concerns for food security, understood as energy provision, as well as economic and strategic priorities. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic efforts towards identifying synergistic approaches, from agricultural production to distribution of edible oils, as well as increased involvement of nutrition advocates with upstream policies in the oils sector, could increase policy influence for advocates of both nutrition and sustainability.

Evidence on the magnitude of the economic, health and population effects of palm cooking oil consumption: an integrated modelling approach with Thailand as a case study.

BACKGROUND: Palm oil's high yields, consequent low cost and highly versatile properties as a cooking oil and food ingredient have resulted in its thorough infiltration of the food sector in some countries. Longitudinal studies have associated palm oil's high saturated fatty acid content with non-communicable disease, but neither the economic or disease burdens have been assessed previously. METHODS: This novel palm oil-focussed disease burden assessment employs a fully integrated health, macroeconomic and demographic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Thailand with nine regional (urban/rural) households. Nutritional changes from food consumption are endogenously translated into health (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke) and population outcomes and are fed back into the macroeconomic model as health and caregiver-related productive labour supply effects and healthcare costs to generate holistic 2016-2035 burden estimates. Model scenarios mirror the replacement of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils and are compared with simulated total Thai health and macroeconomic burdens for MI and stroke. RESULTS: Replacing consumption of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils could reduce MI/stroke incident cases by 8280/2639 and cumulative deaths by 4683/894 over 20 years, removing approximately 0.5% of the total Thai burden of MI/stroke. This palm cooking oil replacement would reduce consumption shares of saturated/monounsaturated fatty acids in Thai household consumption by 6.5%/3% and increase polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption shares by 14%, yielding a 1.74% decrease in the population-wide total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio after 20 years. The macroeconomic burden that would be removed is US$308mn, approximately 0.44% of the total burden of MI/stroke on Thailand's economy or 0.003% of cumulative 20-year GDP. Bangkok and Central region households benefit most from removal of disease burdens. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations indicate that consumption of palm cooking oil, rather than other dietary oils, imposes a negative health burden (MI and stroke) and associated economic burden on a high consuming country, such as Thailand. Integrated sectoral model frameworks to assess these burdens are possible, and burden estimates from our simulated direct replacement of palm cooking oil indicate that using these frameworks both for broader analyses of dietary palm oil use and total burden analyses of other diseases may also be beneficial.

Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand.

Palm oil is a cooking oil and food ingredient in widespread use in the global food system. However, as a highly saturated fat, palm oil consumption has been associated with negative effects on cardiovascular health, while large scale oil palm production has been linked to deforestation. We construct an innovative fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) model to undertake integrated health, environmental, and economic analyses of palm oil consumption and oil palm production in Thailand over the coming 20 years (2016-2035). In order to put a health and fiscal food policy perspective on policy priorities of future palm oil consumption growth, we model the implications of a 54% product-specific sales tax to achieve a halving of future energy intakes from palm cooking oil consumption. Total patient incidence and premature mortality from myocardial infarction and stroke decline by 0.03-0.16% and rural-urban equity in health and welfare improves in most regions. However, contrary to accepted wisdom, reduced oil palm production would not be environmentally beneficial in the Thailand case, since, once established, oil palms have favourable carbon sequestration characteristics compared to alternative uses of Thai cropland. The increased sales tax also provokes mixed economic impacts: While real GDP increases in a second-best Thai tax policy environment, relative consumption-to-investment price changes may reduce household welfare over extended periods unless accompanied by non-distortionary government compensation payments. Overall, our holistic approach demonstrates that product-specific fiscal food policy taxes may involve important trade-offs between nutrition, health, the economy, and the environment.